May 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions
- EB3- China could advance to 22 March 2005
- EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 April 2006 (Mostly 22 April 2006. It could just be in borderline for 01 May 2006 if we are lucky).
- EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
- EB3-India could advance to 08 September 2002.
- EB2-India and EB2-China would retrogress to 15th August 2007 in coming bulletin. Now since we have all the demand to satisfy annual quota for this fiscal year, dates will remain stagnant up to July visa bulletin. In August visa bulletin, we may see 3-4 months movement and then in September it will be March 2008, with final resting point for cut-off date at May-June 2008 or more in October-December visa bulletins. We can crunch exact numbers once next inventory data is released .i.e. in May time frame. As of now it seems that FY 2013 will take care of at least first half of 2009 or little more; FY 2014 is the year we are looking for 2010 PDs.
Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.
This sucks big time CM! Esp for us who can not work without H1B sponsorship!
Are you telling anyone in 2010 who missed becoming current will only become current in FY2014 atleast to file for I485 or for all those who already filed for I485 to get the card. My PD is EB2I - Aug 2010. When do you think it will be current to file for AOS.
So, We are not sure for EB3 Row.My PD is April 26th 2006.Any advice?I am tensed because of HR3012 if it passed than date will be retroactive.
Thanks
Rajiv
Are you saying PDs come back to 2010 in FY 2014?
renewal or my date will be current before it's expiry
My PD is April 2007 EB2 India . Our case was under internal security review for past 6 months. It is now with the adjudicating officer since march 2 2012 . Do you think we have a chance of getting a GC. Is it true that all the visas for year 2012 are exausted and we have to wait till October 2012 . Thanks
MVJ
From OH Law Firm
As my Priority is 26thApril2006 so i will be current in May than.Your prediction was stating 22April2006.I am little tensed?Can you please give your thoughts?
Thanks for your help.
Rajiv
Igot a RFE for Birth certificate. The lawyers responded to RFE on April 3rd. My PD is novemer 2007. If the dates retrigress befre i get GC, will have to wait till the dates again get current?
My PD is March 2009 and I recently applied for I-485. Just have got the receipt. Will further things (EAD/AP/Fingerprinting) continue even though dates will retrogress next month? From forums I think EAD/AP will move, but I haven't gotten clear picture on fingerprinting.
Thanks!
At this point I would not lose hope on movement in August and September 2012. It may be possible that dates will advance little in these two months to reach March 2008. If this will not happen based on huge EB2-ROW-M-P and EB1 demand. We can expect quantum leaps in FY 2013 which could be around January 2009 or more. From the statements from Mr. O, it is very apparent he plans to advance dates rapidly at start of each year and then retrogress it when EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P demand becomes large. Though he might not need to do it based on actual available demand he will have until May 2010 but he (and USCIS) may have found this as more effective way of handling load compared to previous years when work load could be large at the end of the year near summer. Generally USCIS has seen low EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P demand in Q1 and Q2. Again I will take every thing with grain of salt as Mr O's mind fickles a lot and he may do things differently than he has promised previously.
______________________________________
RETROGRESSION OF THE CHINA-MAINLAND AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE CUT-OFF DATE
Due
to the rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, demand for China and
India Employment Second preference numbers has
increased dramatically during recent months, and
at a much faster rate than had been expected. Therefore, it has been
necessary
to retrogress that cut-off date to August 15,
2007 in an attempt to hold number use within the annual limit while
maintaining
availability for those countries that have not
yet reached their per-country limit. Notices were included in the
November,
January, and February Visa Bulletins alerting
readers to the possibility of such a retrogression. While corrective
action
has become necessary earlier than was
anticipated based on the information available at the time cut-off dates
were determined,
it is hoped that readers are not caught off
guard by this retrogression. Should additional information regarding potential demand become available, it may be necessary to take additional corrective
action at any time. Every effort will
be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference
cut-off date to the previously announced
April date of May 1, 2010. This will be done as
quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect
October
1, 2012. It will not be possible to speculate
on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until late summer. USCIS has indicated that it will continue accepting China and India Employment Second preference I-485 filings based on the
originally announced April cut-off date.
Worldwide: Potential need for cut-off date to be established
China and India: Potentially “Unavailable”
About potential need for cut-off date for EB2-ROW-M-P, I do not think that will happen. Mr. O. said that about EB4-China as well. At times he may be overreacting to numbers presented by USCIS which may change as time will go on.
About EB2-IC becoming 'U' by moving dates to 15 August 2007, he has already done that in some sense but this could happen if demand for porting increases. Unless until then there is no reason for such action. I am still hopeful about some movement around August and September. This may change depending upon numbers in June Inventory.
How many GC do you think are used by EB2IC this year. If EB2 used about 40 k then EB2IC may have used easily about 26K
I PD is 26th April ROW on EB3 and i am going to be current from may.Can you please give an idea how long it takes to get the approval in general case?
Thanks for you help.Appreciate it.
Rajiv
Thanks
Rajiv
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http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of.pdf
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article copy and paste....
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Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled to allotment of a visa
number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since VO groups demand
for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh of a month are grouped
under the 1st, the eighth through the fourteenth under the 8th, etc.)
The last date that is Current is April 30, 2006.
The first date that is not Current is the May 1, 2006.
Like the 1st, the group of 1st to 7th would all become Current when the Cut Off Date moves to or beyond May 8, 2006.
Can you explain little bit ?
Thank you
Shure
with this movement 3 to 5 weeks for EB3Row ,do you think that i will be current till the end of 2012 .My pd is 19th of October 2006.
thank you
My eb3-phil application is on current status already. I received the notice for my interview which is going to be next month. However, the agency that is handling my case said we have to postpone our interview because they are unable to issue job order. They gave me an option to look for another employer-sponsor to continue my case. The new sponsor will file a new I140 again and request to recapture my old PD.
My question is if is postpone my interview date and reschedule it later this year until i find a new sponsor, will i be affected if in between those dates it retrogresses again.?? Does that mean i need to wait again until my pd becomes current? Or is there a visa number set for me already ? And that i will not be affected of any retrogression? Pls advice. Thank u
The agency) which is handling my case has emailed me recently that at present they could not release new job offers from hospitals due to a slow down on work orders. They have likewise given me the option to look for a replacement employer-sponsor to take over and continue my case considering that they do not have a timeframe as to when they will be able to release new job offer.
They also advice me to postpone my interview date.
If i postpone my interview.. And it retrogresses again.. Will i still be affected? Is there visa number given to me already at this point in time?
Please advice.
Thank you
Just inquiring as to my status. The situation is this, the lawyer who processesed my application is no longer with the law firm. and could not be contacted at the moment at he is presently a judge now. My job offer with the hospital is still there. Do i still need to contact and need this lawyer before i will be given an interview sched by the NVC? My correspondence with the NVC is my present address, thus they will send my schedule once current, to my address.
Thank you for your blog. I always check your website coz i found your predictions most accurate compare to other websites.
I would like to ask your opinion about my case. I'm an eb3 Philippines and my PD is May 16, 2006. My EAD will expire on Sept 2012. I was adviced by my lawyer to re-file for EAD extension. I'am thinking not to do it to save some money. I'am hoping that my PD will become current on the next bulletin. Do you think that's a good idea. Thank you for your time.
Do you have any prediction for June visa bulletin ?Is there any chance for EB3 ROW to have leap forward movement at the end of this Fiscal year?
what happens if my PD becomes current and my employer would no longer offer the job? im on EB3 and expecting to be current on may or june visa bulletin. need help. tnx
you have been current this may visa bulletin,. did you received a scheduled visa interview? just want to know how many weeks i will expect the letter when i get current in june VB.
thanks,
jj
Our PD was Oct 2007. We received our EAD/AP in Jan and my husband's GC came thru in Feb. However mine went into RFE for Marriage evidence and our lawyers filed the RFE on Mar 22nd. Since that day status has been RFE response review. With two weeks remaining before the PD retrogresses to Aug 2007, what do you think will happen to my case? When should I expect to receive my GC?
"Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010. This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect October 1, 2012"
CM-Does that mean EB2-I will jump back to May 2010 in Oct-2012?
I have a problem with my ds 230 on 10/2007 we asked to send ds230 to NVC and because of retrogression they sent our ds230 back to our agency and on 4/2008 again the Nvc asked us to send our ds230 .I wonder if they process both of ds230 or the last one .because i made a mistake in the first one .I hope the NVC assess the last one .What is your opinion?
When can we have your June 2012 visa bulletin predictions? It's only a week to go until showtime. Can you post it asap so we can know our probable status for the coming bulletin?
I am going for visa stamping in june last week in india. I have a valid H1B visa till October 2012. By chance if I dont get visa or if i get 221g form, can I come back with my valid visa? or visa officer can cancel my existing visa too?please answer ASAP.
I'm from Mexico applying on EB2 and as of today my category is retrogress to Jan 2009, you think in October 2012 my category will be current?
Sincerely