⚡ TLDR: The 3 Things You Need to Know
- Chart A is LIVE (May 2026). This is the primary cutoff for I-485 filing. If your PD is current on Chart A, you can file NOW — don't wait for Chart B.
- India EB-2 retrogressed 10.5 months — longest single-month drop seen. This signals that India demand is STILL outpacing supply. If you're in EB2-India with PD 2013–2014, watch closely for next month.
- EB-3 categories moved forward (India +1m, China +1.5m). The spillover from EB-4/5 is helping EB-3, but it's slow. EB-3 India (2013-12-15) is still ~12 years behind the calendar year.
- Travel ban active; Chart B is suspended. You cannot use Chart B to file AOS unless you are a special immigrant or immediate relative. Standard EB filers are locked to Chart A.
🎯 VB Snapshot (May 2026)
| Category | India | China | ROW / Others | Movement (May) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 | 2022-12-15 | 2023-04-01 | Current | EB1-India ↓ 3.5m; EB1-China ↔ |
| EB-2 | 2013-09-01 | 2021-09-01 | Current | EB2-India ↓ 10.5m; EB2-China ↔ |
| EB-3 | 2013-12-15 | 2021-08-01 | 2024-06-01 | EB3-India ↑ 1m; EB3-China ↑ 1.5m |
| EB-5 | 2022-05-01 | 2016-09-22 | – | EB5-India ↔; EB5-China ↔ |
| Risk Level | HIGH RETROGRESSION — Travel ban active; 7% country cap pressure | – | ||
📊 Movement Analysis: What the Numbers Tell Us
May 2026 saw significant EB-2 India retrogression — a 10.5-month backward step, the harshest single-month move in recent VBs. Why? Two forces collide: (1) the 7% per-country cap consumes EB-2 India visa allotments faster than PDs advance, and (2) the travel ban remains in effect, blocking consular processing and forcing all India filers through I-485 AOS. This creates a bottleneck: more people filing I-485 (thus priority dates "consuming" faster), fewer visas available, and no chart spillover relief.
In contrast, EB-3 moved forward (India +1 month, China +1.5 months). This is the spillover effect at work: EB-4 and EB-5 demand was lighter this cycle, so unused visas "spilled down" to EB-3. It's not fast, but it's measurable. The velocity for EB-3 India is 1.2 months/VB cycle — meaning, on a 5-month reporting lag, EB-3 India advances ~1 month every 4–5 months of wall-clock time. At that pace, EB-3 India (now at 2013-12-15) won't reach 2020 until late 2032.
EB-1 India retrogressed 3.5 months, a surprise given typically stable EB-1 demand. My educated guess: India EB-1 filings are growing (due to AI boom + startup activity), and the 7% cap is now biting even at the top category. ROW categories (EB-1, EB-2, EB-3) remain Current — there is no backlog for most of the world.
🌍 Country-by-Country: What It Means
🇮🇳 India: The Long Game
India is the story of the VB. EB-2 India is 12.5 years behind the calendar (PD: Sep 2013; current year: 2026). The 7% cap means India gets only ~9,800 EB-2 visas per year across all ages/fields. Current demand is ~45,000+ (est. from attorney surveys). The math doesn't close.
EB-3 India is even worse (PD: 2013-12-15, ~12 years behind), but at least it's inching forward. EB-1 India is a bright spot: PD is 2022-12-15 (current within 3 years), velocity is stable at 1.2 months/cycle. If you have EB-1 India with PD 2023 or later, you are likely 6–12 months from filing I-485.
🇨🇳 China: Mixed Signals
China is more stable than India but still deeply backlogged. EB-3 China (2021-08-01) is ~4.7 years behind. EB-2 China (2021-09-01, velocity 1.8/cycle) is moving faster than EB-2 India, but it's still a 5-year gap. EB-5 China (2016-09-22) is ancient — don't expect relief soon.
🇵🇭 Philippines & 🇲🇽 Mexico: Emerging Pressure
Philippines EB-3 (2023-08-01) is recent but accelerating. Mexico EB-3 (2024-06-01) just crossed the threshold into backlog. Both countries have smaller visa pools than India/China but rising tech & healthcare demand. Watch for potential retrogression in late 2026.
🌎 ROW (Rest of World): Current/Unrestricted
EB-1, EB-2, EB-3 ROW are all Current. If you are European, Canadian, Australian, or from most other countries, you have zero backlog. You can file I-485 the moment your PERM is approved and I-140 is pending. This is a massive advantage over India/China filers.
💼 What This Means for YOUR Priority Date
You are either in late-stage I-485 (biometrics, interview), or you've already adjusted. If still pending (unlikely), file expedited completion request. Focus: green card receipt should arrive by Q3 2026 unless USCIS processing is heavily backlogged.
You are the "People Who Missed the Boat" (PWMB) cohort. EB-2 PD Sep 2013 just became current, but 10.5-month retrogression means filing windows close fast. If your I-140 is approved and PD now shows current on Chart A, file I-485 immediately — don't wait. The window may close in 1–2 months. If I-140 is still pending, check status weekly with USCIS or your attorney.
EB-2 India: still 1.5–3 years away (PD 2015 is ~2 years behind the May 2026 cutoff of Sep 2013). EB-3 India: 2–5 years away. EB-2 China: 1–3 years away (Sep 2013 is 5 years behind 2021 cutoff). Begin category switch analysis NOW if EB-2 salary/role allows EB-3. Switching is painful (new PERM + new I-140), but it can save 2–4 years. Run numbers with your attorney.
If India/China EB-2, you are 5–12 years away from current. Don't count on filing I-485 before 2030. Explore: (1) Category switch to EB-1 if research/arts apply. (2) Employer-sponsored move to ROW office (if UK/EU/Canada role exists) to convert to ROW. (3) Stay the course and use Advance Parole (AP) to travel while waiting. If ROW, you may be current now or within 6 months.
🔮 Next Month Prediction (June 2026)
My educated guess: EB-2 India will retrogress another 4–6 months in the June VB. Why? The May retrogression was driven by a surge in I-485 filings (likely from the Feb–Mar PERM approvals flowing through to I-140). June will see the same cohort completing I-140 and filing I-485, consuming more PDs. Additionally, the travel ban remains active, so no consular processing relief. EB-3 India/China may advance 0.5–1.5 months (slower spillover). EB-1 India will stabilize or retrogress slightly (likely ↔ to 2022-09-01).
Watch signal: If EB-2 India retracts by more than 8 months in June, expect a retrogression cycle through Q3 2026. If it retracts by less than 4 months, a stabilization may be forming (less likely given current pressure).
Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt. - CM
🚀 The Bottom Line
Chart A is live and locked. Chart B is off-limits due to the travel ban. If your PD is current, file I-485 now — don't procrastinate. If you're 1–3 years away, begin active dialogue with your attorney about category switches or strategic moves. If you're 5+ years away (esp. EB-3 India), consider longer-term flexibility: relocation, visa alternatives (L-1B → EB-1C, O-1, etc.), or family-based options if eligible.
The EB-2/EB-3 India backlog is structural, not cyclical. Retrogression risk will remain HIGH through 2027. Plan accordingly.
Drop a comment with your PD and category below. I'll try to respond with a personalized take on your specific situation. We're all in this together. 🤝
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on USCIS Visa Bulletin data as of May 2026 and historical velocity trends. I am not an immigration attorney. Consult your employer's immigration counsel or a licensed AILA attorney before filing or making major career decisions. Employment-based green card timelines depend on local office processing speeds, USCIS staffing, political change, and individual case facts — all of which vary. The projections above are educated guesses and are not guaranteed. Please take them with a grain of salt.