TLDR — Skip Here First
| Category | Jun 2026 | Jul Prediction | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 India | 15 Dec 2022 | 01 Jan 2023 | Caution |
| EB-1 China | 01 Apr 2023 | 15 Apr 2023 | Advancing |
| EB-2 India | 01 Sep 2013 | 01 Nov 2013 | Advancing |
| EB-2 China | 01 Sep 2021 | 01 Nov 2021 | Advancing |
| EB-3 India | 15 Dec 2013 | 01 Feb 2014 | Advancing |
| EB-3 China | 01 Aug 2021 | 15 Sep 2021 | Advancing |
| EB-1/2/3 ROW | Current | Current | Stable |
One-line takeaway: EB-1 India just retrogressed 3.5 months and EB-2 India retrogressed 10.5 months in June — but with Q4 spillover approaching and Trump-era processing boosts, July should see modest forward movement across the board. Chart B remains suspended.
Setting the Stage: FY2026 Q3
June 2026 is the third month of Q3 in Fiscal Year 2026. That matters a lot. USCIS has been burning through the annual 140,000 employment-based visa numbers at a pace set partly by the Trump administration's processing acceleration — what I call the 1.25x boost factor relative to prior baseline velocity. By June, roughly 75% of the FY2026 annual allocation has been used or allocated. Demand pressure is real, and it is showing up directly in the bulletin.
The June 2026 Visa Bulletin (Chart A) dropped two notable retrogressions. EB-1 India moved back 3.5 months — from roughly mid-April 2023 to 15 Dec 2022. EB-2 India took a harder hit of 10.5 months, landing at 01 Sep 2013. These are not small adjustments. They signal that USCIS hit a demand ceiling for Indian-born applicants in those categories ahead of schedule. Meanwhile, EB-3 India and EB-3 China both crept forward — +1 month and +1.5 months respectively. Small, but directionally positive.
All data in this post comes directly from the DOS June 2026 Visa Bulletin, Chart A (Final Action Dates). Chart B (Dates for Filing) remains suspended — DOS has not activated it this month. I am using my Oppenheim behavior modeling engine, velocity trends, and the FY quarter context to build the July 2026 predictions below. As always, take the predictions with a grain of salt — they are educated guesses, not guarantees.
June 2026 Visa Bulletin — Chart A Final Action Dates
| Cat | India | China | Phil. | ROW | Δ India | Δ China |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 | 15 Dec 2022 | 01 Apr 2023 | Current | Current | -3.5 mo | +1.2 mo |
| EB-2 | 01 Sep 2013 | 01 Sep 2021 | Current | Current | -10.5 mo | — |
| EB-3 | 15 Dec 2013 | 01 Aug 2021 | 01 Aug 2023 | 01 Jun 2024 | +1 mo | +1.5 mo |
| EB-5 | 01 May 2022 | 22 Sep 2016 | Current | Current | — | — |
🚨 Retrogression Alert: EB-2 India retrogressed 10.5 months. EB-1 India retrogressed 3.5 months. USCIS using Final Action Dates only — Chart B suspended. DOS warns further retrogression possible before Sep 30, 2026.
Analysis: Why Did This Happen?
The annual EB visa allocation is 140,000 visas. India gets roughly 9,800 per year (7% country cap). But the demand queue for EB-2 India alone is estimated at over 300,000 pending applicants. When USCIS processes cases faster than usual — as they have been under the current administration's processing boost — they burn through the available numbers sooner. That is exactly what happened here.
EB-2 India was running at an unsustainably fast pace for Q3 FY2026. DOS had to pull back the dates to prevent overshooting before the fiscal year ends on Sep 30. This is classic Oppenheim behavior — advance aggressively in Q1-Q2, then slam the brakes in Q3 when the numbers start running low.
Key Insight: EB-3 India (Dec 2013) is now 3 months ahead of EB-2 India (Sep 2013). This is unusual and creates a porting discussion. But switching categories requires a new PERM + new I-140. Same-employer EB3→EB2: cannot use experience gained at that employer. The GC Calculator shows the EB-2 vs EB-3 comparison for your specific PD.
For EB-3 India, the story is more positive. The +1 month advance to 15 Dec 2013 continues a steady trend. DOS appears to be managing EB-3 more carefully, avoiding the boom-bust cycle that hit EB-2.
China categories are holding steady. EB-2 China at Sep 2021 and EB-3 China at Aug 2021 have been relatively stable. ROW remains Current across all categories — no wait if you are not from India, China, or Philippines.
July 2026 Predictions
Here are my educated guesses for the July 2026 Visa Bulletin. After a major retrogression like this, DOS typically allows a modest bounce-back. July is the last bulletin before the critical Q4 (Jul-Sep) endgame.
| Category | Current | Jul Prediction | Δ | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 India | 15 Dec 2022 | 01 Jan 2023 | +0.5 mo | Post-retrogression recovery. Cautious advance expected. |
| EB-2 India | 01 Sep 2013 | 01 Nov 2013 | +2 mo | Bounce-back after 10.5mo retrogression. DOS typically advances 1.5-2mo after pulling back. |
| EB-3 India | 15 Dec 2013 | 01 Feb 2014 | +1.5 mo | Steady pace. No retrogression pressure on EB-3. |
| EB-2 China | 01 Sep 2021 | 01 Nov 2021 | +2 mo | Smaller backlog than India. Should advance comfortably. |
| EB-3 China | 01 Aug 2021 | 15 Sep 2021 | +1.5 mo | Tracking closely with EB-2 China. Gap narrowing. |
| ROW (all) | Current | Current | — | No backlog. Should remain Current through FY2026. |
What This Means for Your PD
PD before Sep 2013 (EB-2 India): You are current. File I-485 now if you have not already. If already filed, your case is in the processing queue.
PD Sep 2013 to Jul 2014 (EB-2 India): You just went from current to not current. This is the hardest spot — you were so close. The GC Calculator can show you exactly when your date will become current again based on velocity and spillover projections.
PD 2015+ (EB-2 India): Long wait ahead. The exact timeline depends on multiple factors — spillover patterns, processing boost continuation, and demand dropout rates. Enter your PD in the GC Calculator for a personalized projection.
Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt. This is not legal advice — consult an immigration attorney for your specific situation.
Drop a comment with your PD and category — I will try to give you a specific estimate.
Good Luck. - CM