Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Showing posts with label Reform. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Reform. Show all posts

Sunday, April 18, 2010

RENEGING REFORM - Have President Obama's immigration reform promises faded from mind? - By Martin Desmarais

Posted On Sunday, April 18, 2010 by Rav 1 comments

A year ago spirits in the immigration law industry were flying high as many anticipated newly elected President Barack Obama would deliver on his campaign promise of comprehensive immigration reform. However, that optimism has swung deeply south as many now feel comprehensive immigration reform is as far off as it has ever been.

“Obama made a lot of promises to a lot of different groups, but the reality on the ground is bit different,” said Charles H. Kuck, managing partner of the Atlanta-based immigration law firm Kuck Casablanca LLC and immediate past president of the American Immigration Lawyers Association. “He should be pushing immigration reform along … regardless of the economy, regardless if his health care passes.”

Kuck does not doubt President Obama’s interest in immigration reform. However, he is not satisfied with the tactic of relying on Congress to put forth legislation on the matter. Kuck believes that, due to the hot button nature of immigration reform, this is not something that America’s legislators have an interest in doing. He stressed that President Obama needs to put Congress’ “feet to the fire” or they will not act.

And now, with elections looming for legislators, Kuck does not anticipate any movement on comprehensive immigration reform. “On the ground the feeling is the chance of immigration reform are slim,” he said.

According to him, the immigration situation has reverted back to what it was when former President George H.W. Bush was in office, which is disheartening sentiment for many of the immigration reform supporters who welcomed the onset of President Obama administration.

“It puts us in an immigration malaise,” Kuck said. “It puts us trying to protect the same laws we have been trying to protect for 20 years.”

Kuck believes that some immigration reform may come piecemeal piggybacked on other legislation, but he has put his hopes of comprehensive immigration reform aside for the moment.

He also pointed out that Obama’s administration has actually been tougher on immigration than Bush’s ever was, with aggressive audits of immigration workers and a recent memo from the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, which has made it even harder to obtain H1-B visas due to the bureau’s new stricter interpretation of H1-B definitions.

Kuck
“The practice of immigration law has become that much harder,” Kuck said. “Sure clients are turning to us but we have less and less of the answers … It is just that much more difficult to obtain the status they want.

“Right now is a difficult time. Usually there is a rush to get H1-Bs, but there is no rush right now. There are no H1-Bs,” he added. “They are not going to hit the cap for many years.”

Sheela Murthy, head of Owing Mills, Md.-based, immigration-focused, Murthy Law Firm, had less optimism than most about the reality of immigration reform happening in 2009, so she is less surprised that the tide seemed to have turned, but this does not make things any easier to swallow from her perspective.

“I think it has been shoveled aside because there are bigger problems [such as health care, war and the economy],” Murthy said. “It is frustrating because you keep hoping something will happen for people who have spent their life working [on immigration].

Regardless, she stressed that immigration reform cannot be continually swept under the rug. “There are no simple solutions for any of this, but it all makes perfect sense that we need to do something about this. There is a problem,” she said. “There seems to be a huge systematic overhaul problem that we are dealing with.”

Like Kuck, Murthy sees an impact on the way her immigration law firm does business.

“Yes, the climate has changed. Things have become more difficult,” she said.

Murthy is particularly dissatisfied about the USCIS memo that has made it harder to get H1-Bs and she feels that the bureau has out stepped its legal bounds through the document. Her law firm is prepared to sue the government over the memo and has drafted a 28-page brief for a lawsuit and also sent a letter to the USCIS.

“We are challenging the government and telling them to revisit it,” Murthy said. She expects to get a response to her letter and will proceed forward depending on the response.

Though she feels confident that her firm has a case in regards to USCIS attempting to increase H1-B restrictions without going through the proper legislative channels to do so, she does admit concerns that moving forward with a lawsuit may be difficult because companies do not want to come forward and be part of it, choosing instead to try and work around the USCIS’ increased stringency.

Sheela Murthy
“Everyone is afraid of repercussions,” Murthy said. “The problem is I don’t want to threaten a lawsuit if people are not going to help me sue.”

At the end of the day, she feels the increased immigration scrutiny is increasingly coming down on immigration lawyers, who have to work harder and harder to get the results clients are looking for.

Scott Cooper, managing partner for the Michigan office of immigration law firm Fragomen, Del Rey Bernsen & Loewy PLLC, sees less and less of the results clients want happening – especially in regards to the different visa categories.

“[The documentation process for most visa categories] is very burdensome on the employer and it is very discouraging,” Cooper said.

Fragomen, Del Rey Bernsen & Loewy, which was started in New York, has more than 1,000 immigration professionals in over 30 offices in 14 countries and Cooper said the United States is increasingly becoming one of the most difficult places for immigrants to come and start businesses. “We are trying to shoehorn these people who want to create small- and medium-sized businesses into one category or another and the government is fighting us tooth-and-nail.”

He believes the more difficult the United States makes it to transfer in skilled personal the more companies will look outside the country for options. “It is almost like the government is trying to offshore jobs,” Cooper said. “And it is very counterproductive.”

When asked what he thinks it will take for immigration reform to happen, Cooper admits the belief that there is very little that good trigger any movement on the topic currently. “We are just too close to an election for an immigration bill. It is just too hot of a topic,” he said.

Beyond that he is not too optimistic. “They are trying to get health care done and it is a question of who is up next,” Cooper added. “I am not very encouraged.”

Immigration attorney Hanishi Ali, a founding partner at Westborough, Mass.-based Mithras Law Group, takes heart in the fact that President Obama continues to publicly say he is still supporting immigration reform.

“It is promising to hear that Pres. Obama still supports comprehensive immigration reform,” Ali said. “At least he hasn’t forgotten, but clearly we are going to deal with health care and the economy first.”

Still, like most of her immigration colleagues, she is insistent that comprehensive immigration reform must happen and that is the message that must be sent to the nation’s lawmakers. “We have to make legislators understand the pros and cons of this and really there aren’t that many cons.”.