Thursday, November 10, 2011

Visa Bulletin - December 2011


Thursday, November 10, 2011 | , , , , , , ,


December 2011 Visa Bulletin  for the FY 2012 was released today. December visa bulletin brought 4.5 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories., thus moving it to the most favorable cur-off dates  ever.  EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected. All other categories are current as expected. Family Based category  saw some movement.


Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
  • EB-1 remains current across the board.
  • EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines.   EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by four and a half (4.5) months to March 15, 2008.
  • EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to January 15, 2006, EB-3 China  moves forward by two (2) weeks to September 8, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to August 1, 2002.
  • The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by one and a half (1.5) months for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to January 1, 2006.  It also moves forward by five  (5) weeks for India to July 22, 2002.



Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:
  • FB1 moves forward (again, for third consecutive month).  FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to September 1, 2004.   FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 8, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by three (3) weeks to March 1, 1997.
  • FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to March 22, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by two (2) months to February 8, 2009.
  • FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to August 15, 2003.  FB2B Mexico remains unchanged at November 22, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to August 15, 2001.


VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
 
FB Categories
No Notes

EB Categories

No Notes

Demand Data Comparison for December & November 2011 Visa Bulletin Movement





EB3-ROW-M-P Future Movement 
EB3-ROW-M-P moved to cut-off date of 15 January 2006 as expected based on current demand and available visas used on monthly basis. I do not want to sound like a broken record, but there is always some hidden demand and other regularly old PD cases  that continuously become documentarily qualified, thus receiving visas from the monthly allocation. Some of these cases are old  and are captured in I-485 pending inventory. On average 1500-1600 demand is generally reduced on a monthly basis from the available inventory. With the released I-485 pending inventory and recently released demand data, it is becoming more and more obvious that cut-off dates for FY 2012 for this category may not cross 01 August 2006. We will keep an eye on the demand data but anything more than this is less plausible so far.
 
EB3-India & China Future Movement 
EB3-India will continue to move 1 week in each visa bulletin. There could be some substantial movement later in the year but so far this will be the trend. EB3-China is difficult to predict due to high consular processing demand but we expect it to move and cross into PD 2005 for this fiscal year.

EB2-India & China Movement 
Dates for EB2-IC has crossed into cut-off date of March 2008. It is impressive to see that Mr. Oppenheim is taking different approach this year and we should applaud him for his efforts. Since Mr. Oppenheim is taking different course for FY 2012, we believe that we should also keep our dogmatic approach to number crunching away for sometime until it make sense to do so. We should try to speculate what can happen in next few bulletins and successive months from their until summer 2012. We may be 'out to lunch' with this approach but can very well veer back to number crunching if this does not make sense in next few bulletins. 

We believe retrogression is imminent in summer 2012; only exception will be HR 3012  if it will become a law by that time. We know that current movement upto March 2008 from 15 April 2007(Sep VB date) would easily bring demand that could end up using around 28K-30K visas from 140,000 available EB category visas. These are definitely in par with what we would usually see year-to-year with EB2-IC spillover + 5600 annual limits.

Question is so what can we expect from Mr. Oppenheim hereon? Firstly, we can say he has no clue that what real demand is due to such movement and lets presume he might not get hold off this until next two months ( that too only if he decides to persuade USCIS to tell him the numbers based on receipts issued).In reality, he may have to wait for real count on demand until April-May 2012 when such cases will start to become documentarily qualified and USCIS will start requesting for visa numbers. 

That said, Mr. Oppenheim may not still be done with intaking more applications for this fiscal year. First, based on past year trend on visa use, monthly demand and estimations, EB2-IC had always moved around 11 months each year. By moving dates upto March 2008, he had just covered those bases. But still he does not know what would happen with HR 3012, whether it will pass with effective date of 01 September 2011. We know from our estimation on this bill, that cut-off dates until PD June 2008 would easily be current if this bill is passed. With approximation on fall-outs due to unforeseen reason, we can expect PD July-August 2008 to be current. If Mr. Oppenheim will stop such movement from next visa bulletin, he may miss that window on keeping cases ready for adjudication in case HR 3012 will become a law as he mentioned in previous bulletin that it can take 4-6 months to get these cases adjudicated. As I mentioned ,this is a speculation and I may  be out to lunch but we believe in coming bulletin(s), EB2-IC dates may move all the way from June 2008-August 2008.  Once, DOS will have enough applications in hand, it will be pretty straight forward for DOS to retrogress EB2-IC or EB2-ROW in summer 2012, whatever is appropriate based on fate of the bill.

Now who can expect Green Card for FY 2012? and how will dates retrogress? One thing  to keep in mind with USCIS is that they will approve cases randomly usually based on month of filings, regardless of Priority Date. Now since most of the July 2007 backlog is cleared, I believe in 4 to 6 months when such cases will start becoming documentarily qualified, we will start to see approvals. Usually in such case, application filed at NSC will have upper hand compared to TSC filings due to vast difference in processing times. Generally during these months of the year, TSC will only approve 6000-8000 cases and NSC will approve around 10,000 cases consistently. So please do not be surprised if NSC case that become current in December bulletin will see approval before November bulletin cases. This is very common with USCIS. Approvals will be random. File your cases as perfect as possible so that you do not receive RFEs. In general, FY 2012 for EB2-IC will be exceptional with respect to approvals, with dates all over from August 2007 PD to March 2008 PD getting randomly approved. Once DOS will feel that enough visa numbers are used for EB2-IC based on EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, at that time dates may retrogress upto PD 01 Sep 07- 01 Nov 07. This is when we will start to see some huge numbers in demand data and we can go back to our number crunching and predictions based on calculations. For some time we believe VB movement and approvals at USCIS will be random.


 


You Might Also Like :


93 comments:

Mohan said...

Thanks CM for this great article. I have a question: you mentioned- if the bill is passed cut off dates until june 2008 will be current" when you say this what date in June is in your mind? is it 01 June or 30 June? My date is June 25th 2008.

GC said...

CM,
Good Article. With out HR 3012, where can the dates go back??. My PD is June 07, applied AOS 2 weeks ago. Any idea when i can get GC??.

Thanks,
GC

Guest said...

CM,

Thanks for all your help.

One quick question. My priority date (Nov 25 2007 EB2I) became current as per December Visa bulletin. However, I will be travelling to India on Nov 15 and will be back on Dec 10. I am thinking of applying for I-485 (myself and wife) after coming back. How long does the whole process (medical check up, etc.,) take? Is there enough time to complete everything and submit application by end of December ? or Am I cutting too close.

Cheers

Anonymous said...

Hi CM, as usual thanks again for the efforts. We really appreciate it. By the way, what do you mean by HR 3012 With effective Sept. 1, 2011? Do you mean Sept. 1, 2012? Is this the possible effectivity date if bill becomes a law?

AM said...

Thanks! CM
My PD is June 2008, put I just filed for new PERM under EB2I. If dates move beyond June 2008 in next 2 bulletins, do u think they will stay there (not retrogress) in March 2012, which is when I will be probably filing the I-485.

Appreciate your response.
AM

Maxy said...

your prediction is so full of shit...it has always been wrong. You are in fact "out to lunch".

Fan_of_CM said...

For pd dec4th 2007 eb2 Ind , will I surely receive GC at hand before Dec of 2012 ? Appreciated .

RV said...

are you somking something? or forget to take your Meds?

rrrrrr said...

Whatz the problem with u dude...if u dont think he is right...just stop coming to this blog...he is doing great job ...stop crying on someone who is helping others.....

CM_Supporter said...

Go to hell maxi....no body has forced you to come here. Keep this blog clean and take your frustrated life somewhere else......

Deethsales said...

Hello Cm,

Thans for your analysis, it is of great help to us. I missed the dates by exactly 30 days as my priority dates are April'16'2008. IS there a chance that i will be able to file my AOS by january VB or should i have to wait for next year.

Thanks,
TTDT

K .sh said...

...

MOh said...

CM..a basic question
If the number of go applicants in 2008-09 was signicantly less due to bad economy, would it be correct to assume that the PD for these two yrs will move relatively quickly compared to say 2006-07?

Thanks

John C said...

CM. Thank you for yoru expert advise on the VB movement.

The articles/blog really helped me in keeping hope.
y'day my PD got current :).

Thanks once again & keep up the good work.

KnifeEdge said...

I'm EB2I and 15 days away from current PD. Its agonizing, will I be current next bulletin. PD Apr 1 2008.

Senior Citizen said...

My PD is Feb 2009. Lockedup with Desi company. I hate being born as an Indian. If I would have born in other small country, by this time I would have got GC and be a permanent resident of this GREATEST PLACE IN THE EARTH.

Kab?? kab hai GC?? said...

CM,
A friend sent me this link as he thinks I am most knowledgeable in "field" of green card (the secret is I read your blog and show off !! )
any way it is very interesting but not sure if it is reliable!

http://www.usadiversitylottery.com/news/green-card/green-card-immigration-news-sep022009.php

Any thoughts?
thanks

Guest said...

Sir part of the reason you are here is because you were born as an Indian. The kind of education and opportunities India has presented it's citizens in recent years, has enabled more people to come here and work. it's the immigration system of US that discriminates us from other countries.

Transformer said...

Just imagine the feeling, your kid says the same thing to you after few years...I HATE BEING BORN TO YOU. Your country provided all the opportunities, education to you just like you (or any good parent) provide to your kids. I wish you would have born in a country where there is no food and education.

Guest said...

You must be really a SENIOR CITIZEN...I can understand your frustration but comon...be what you are and I don't mind not caring for your home country but don't insult.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

USCIS Updates their Processing times as of September 30, 2011

I-485 TSC -29 March 2011
NSC - 4 months

I-140 TSC - 4 months
NSC - May 2011

krookbond said...

CM, any plans of updating green card calculator with new data?

Guest said...

Hi CM,
I like your blog so much. Thanks for help :-)..Mine PD is 04/22/08 eb2-india? is there any chance it will become current during coming bulletin.

Thank you so much.

Wibcl said...

Preparing the documents takes some time.
1. I went to my Doctor to get the list of vaccines I need to take for Medical check up. Blood test results took one week for me and then I took the only one vaccine missing in my Body.
2. Then I took the vaccine results to my USCIS doctor. for the Skin test, you need to go back to the doctor after two days to check the TB Skin test result. For me, it was Positive on Skin Test.
3. Then I went to the other hospital to get the X-Ray done and X-Ray results took 4 more days. Luckily I am ok with my X-Ray results. Finally It took me 15 days to get the Medical Report.
4. Also remember bank letter some time might take one week. Finally My 485 filed on 11th Nov.

It takes time to get the documents ready.

Dreamer said...

Hi Wibel,

i didn't understand when you said bank letter, What bank letter do we need submit when applying I-485.

Gc said...

Hi Wibcl,

Thanks for sharing this info.

For the positive skin test, do you've to take medication and once it is cured you can file for 485?

doctor has done skin test as part of regular medical exam. my test was +ve. She recommended me to take meds for 6 months.

My PD is Mar 2010 EB-2. I'm not sure, if skin test effects the GC application processing??

Thanks

GC

Kabayan said...

Hi CM,
When can you update your GC Calculator? Thank you!

tobegreened said...

Hi CM,

I check out your blog every day. Can't wait to see your January 2012 VB prediction.

eb2c said...

Dear CM:

When will the the fingerprint notice be sent out after 485 filing?

How long does it usually take now to complete background check?

Thank you.

EB2C

Sai said...

Hello CM,

Thanks for your continuous effort in keeping this site up to date. Hundreds and thousands of people wait for your updates and suggestions regarding immigrations issues. Thank you from all of us for your hard work.

My PD became current in December Bulletin and i noticed that i have a small problem with the Birth Certificate. The Place of Birth on my Birth Certificate is the 'XXX' the name of the village that i was born where is in my passport the place of birth is 'YYY' the name of the District in which the village 'XXX' is located. I just realized this difference of information. Now i am confused and worried if this will cause a problem. Can you please give you valuable suggestion ASAP. Also please suggest what information i should fill in the Place of Birth column in the 485 application.

Thank you.

VG said...

CM

Last time you mentioned Nov-07 would make it this year for their GC.
Above article, you mentioned dates may retrogress upto PD 01 Sep 07- 01 Nov 07. This is contradictory to what you said above. So please clarify.
i am talking about EB2-IC

thanks
VG

Thun said...

Hello CM,
With a PD of Feb 15, if the VB falls on that day are you current or do you need to wait on the next VB.

Amigo said...

CM,
My January 2012 vb prediction for EB3 ROW M P is Feb.15,06. What do you think?
Amigo

Ameet said...

CM,

Do u think this is a reasonable prediction?

http://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/article.asp?articleid=152118&login=true&nogo=1

EB-2 India & China
Jan '12 --- 07/01/2008
Feb '12 --- 11/01/2008
Mar '12 --- 11/01/2008
Apr '12 --- 11/01/2008
May '12 --- 11/01/2008
June '12 --- Possible Retrogression

Ameet

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Estimation was 22nd June 2008 but that is not concrete, give or take few weeks here and there.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Dont worry you are getting GC in next 6 months, dates may never retrogress beyond your PD.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You will have more then enough time. Medicals can take anywhere from 3-10 days based on test results for TB and vaccination record you have. I do not think dates will retrogress next bulletin. By the time you are back, you will know fate of Jan VB. You can then make an informed decision whether you need to rush your case.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

It is difficult to speculate as of now but if dates will move there in next 2 VB then you may just make it.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Yes.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Mostly yes but we will need to keep our emotions in control because this is just speculation. It all depends on how demand data will shape up for January VB. If it is close to 0 or few hundreds then date may be moving for sure.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Absolutely as long as we will receive similar spillovers compared to 2006-2007.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Thank you John for your kind words. We wish you good luck for your GC and future endeavors. God Bless.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Hopefully. I believe so. We need to keep an eye on demand data for coming bulletin.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I agree but those are the application for that year when economy was down. What it does not consider is applications that were roped into PERM audits for two years and became eligible since DOL cleared those backlog.

Thank you for reading our blog and I am glad you are grasping it and spreading knowledge because who knows for how long will I continue this blog and some one will have to pass on the knowledge. :)

Aliqouqzh said...

hi mr cm thanks for your help
my pd feb 15 2006 eb3 row
could i filed with uscis if the next viza bulletin reach feb 15 2006?
thanks

Guest said...

CM, i think demand won't show up until after the application is pre adjudicated and is ready for a visa i.e., after 4-6 months once application is filed. Forward movement started happening from October VB and according to 4-6 months time for pre adjudication demand data for october filings may start show up starting February i.e from March VB.I think demand data is going to stay at same point what ever we saw for last VB or even lower. Would like to know your thoughts on this.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

In few days. smetime in December.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Chances are good I believe so far.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Usually if you have positive skin test , you can get away after taking positive chest x-ray.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

It will be up around 22nd. thank you for visiting our blog.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

FP notices are usually sent as soon as your service center believes that the closest ASC has an appointment slot open. for most cities it is sent in 2-3 weeks but for CA and NJ it Canberra more than month.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You can get away with this without any amendment to the BC or Passport as long as you provide affidavit that y dispose that you were born in this village which is part of this District. Also mention this affidavit was submitted because local Passport office used district instead of village as POB. In addition to this submit Copy of map which shows village is part of the local district. In any case consult your attorney of this will be acceptable.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Since dates have moved more than we expected initially and Individuals all across the board will be filing each month regardless of the PD then approvals will be random mostly based on receipt date than PD. Once DOS will figure out visas are unavailable individual with the earliest PD eligible will just make it and person after him will define the retrogressed date. We know with 20K as per calculation we should just be able to cross December 2007 PD but sine approval will be random ( even PD mar 2008 will be approved) dates can land up anywhere between cutoff dates from October Bulletin depending upon last eligible PD case. I believe 20k spillover is little more optimized estimation of spillover. actuality can be different. Fear is EB2 I becoming U in later part of year for sometime. when dates will retrogress, usually they will retrogress more than expected and then recaliberate each month after observing movement as seen with FB category last year.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Dates should be 22 Feb for you to be considered current.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I still need to work that out. It could be.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Jan 12 - yes , rest too optimistic.

Guest said...

CM, i think demand won't show up until after the application is pre adjudicated and is ready for a visa i.e., after 4-6 months once application is filed. Forward movement started happening from October VB and according to 4-6 months time for pre adjudication demand data for october filings may start show up starting February i.e from March VB.I think demand data is going to stay at same point what ever we saw for last VB or even lower. Would like to know your thoughts on this.

Ameet said...

Thanks CM,

I think it will move till 08/2008 at the most and stop. In the last visa bulletin they removed the RETROGRESSION note that was their in the Nov bulletin. This looks positive.

gcwaiter said...

Hi CM, Thanks for your hardwork for spreaking knowledge on this blog. I visit your blog mostly everyday. My pd is sep 2007 eb2 I and have applied for 485 and my case went to nsc. I saw your note about processing times that says 4 months for nsc. Does this mean I will get GC in hand in 4 months or will ita take much longer.

Mr. V said...

Hi CM, My PD is Oct 29 2008 EB2 I, any predictions about EAD and GC for this PD, and if the Current date is 11/1/2008, can i file my 485 or do i need to wait, because in your previous response to a friend in this blog you mentioned that he need to wait till 2/22 for 2/15 PD, please clarify, appreciate your effort and time

Anonymous said...

You can file 485 when 11/1/2008 becomes current.

GC said...

Hi CM, thanks for your response.

You mean if skin test is positive and if chest xray is negative or it'll not show problem then it is OK??

Thanks,

GC

sunny741 said...

Hi CM,My date is March 26,2008 and EB2-I and missed with 12 days,Do you think I have chances in Jan bulletin?

Su said...

what about january viza bulletin predittion

ks said...

hi cm,

My pd is 17 march 2008,(eb2 I ) missed this bulletin by 2 days hopefully I shud be current in the next one,given the scenario that I become current in jan bulletin when can i expect my EAD and when can get my GC,I deeply value your input.An aprx figure wud be greatly appreciated.thanks a lot in advance..as usual gr8 job gr8 site :).

KS.

Guest said...

cm,

based on updated USCIS I-140 dashboard:http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=91&charttype=1

People(various other sites) are expecting no movement to retrogression in next VB. What is your analysis based on this information .

Do you still think will there be any forward movement at all for this FY.

Ram said...

Any January predictions

Respap said...

My EB2 PD is Jan 2010. Now PD is March 2008. When should I expect it to be current

Hnsdev said...

Hi CM,
it is better to upgrade or post the new prediction in the light of new trends. what you think?

Karthik said...

Hi CM,

My I-485 application was filed on 11/16/2011.
How long it will take to receive the GC?

Thanks in advance for your response.

Thanks,
-karthi

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Dates have to be Feb 22, 2006 for you to be considered current.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You are correct about that but when I am saying demand to show up in next demand data, I am more worried about PWMBs those filed in July- August 2011. I know many believe that these PWMBs are out of way but reality is they are not. I believe even those who filed in June is still waiting. Especially at TSC. Currently there are not many EB2-IC approvals on trackitt for such cases. There was a wave where some were approved at NSC but not any more. Still lot of them are waiting. if these are approved when became qualified then they might not show up in demand data but so far it seems visa numbers for such cases are not readily available, we will know more in December if we will still not see such approvals,

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I think for next VB, June-July 2008 realistic in case Mr. Oppenheim still want to get some more demand.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Based on visa availability, I will think anywhere from 4-5 months.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You can file when 11/1/2008 is PD. You may be current anywhere from late FY 2012 - late FY 2013. We will know more in next 2 VB.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Yes then it is OK.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I still believe you do, let's see. We know there is lot of EB1 and EB2-ROW demand and intake taken so far for EB2-IC is more than enough for approvals for FY 2012 based on estimated spillover. Anything more than this is buffer in case few cases will fall out or spillover just increases or HR 3012 passes. That said movement for next VB or two is very critical and can be anything on dos discretion. I would feel more confident if I will see 0 in demand data for Jan VB.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

If you will be current in next VB you may receive EAD in 3 months. For GC, I am not sure. You may just make it in case retrogression is not much.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I still think we may be able to squeeze in one more movement. Let's see. I-140 demand is large and eventually will start catching up. All I can say spillover is going to be less for this year based on current trend and retrogression can bring some surprises initially.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

If there is no change in law, I would say around 3 more years as dates will retrogress in few months.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

It will be up in few days.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

4-6 months depending upon visa availability and retrogressed cut-off dates.

Anonymous said...

CM,

My EB2I PD is Jan 25 2008. Do you think I have chance to get GC in this fiscal year?

Thanks!

K .sh said...

Hi CM
what does it mean ?
I heard about H.R 3012 that in 18th of November ,They put it into union calendar,calendar 193.
It means that it goes forward!!!!
Please give me your opinion
thanks

Karthik said...

Thanks for the reply.

Ap_chetan said...

Hi CM,

My GC had approved. I hv received RFE (1) Geographical Location and (2) H1B rejection.

Thanks for your advise when I posted my concerns in the month of noverber.
As soon as Attorney submitted the letter to USCIS, approved in a Day and got GC card in 3 days.

Thanks for your support.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I remember your RFE issue. I am glad you were approved and it worked out well. Congratulations and Good Luck for future.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

January 2012 VB predictions will be up in few hours. Sorry for the delay.

Shish said...

Congress is going to vote on it on 11/29.

K .sh said...

thank you for your reply and where do you see it ?

Shish said...

http://majorityleader.gov/Floor/

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You should receive GC this year.

Anonymous said...

Thank you very much!

This brought some optimism for me.

Post a Comment