Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Showing posts with label December 2011. Show all posts
Showing posts with label December 2011. Show all posts

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Visa Bulletin - December 2011

Posted On Thursday, November 10, 2011 by Rav 92 comments


December 2011 Visa Bulletin  for the FY 2012 was released today. December visa bulletin brought 4.5 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories., thus moving it to the most favorable cur-off dates  ever.  EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected. All other categories are current as expected. Family Based category  saw some movement.


Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
  • EB-1 remains current across the board.
  • EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines.   EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by four and a half (4.5) months to March 15, 2008.
  • EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to January 15, 2006, EB-3 China  moves forward by two (2) weeks to September 8, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to August 1, 2002.
  • The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by one and a half (1.5) months for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to January 1, 2006.  It also moves forward by five  (5) weeks for India to July 22, 2002.



Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:
  • FB1 moves forward (again, for third consecutive month).  FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to September 1, 2004.   FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 8, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by three (3) weeks to March 1, 1997.
  • FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to March 22, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by two (2) months to February 8, 2009.
  • FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to August 15, 2003.  FB2B Mexico remains unchanged at November 22, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to August 15, 2001.


VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
 
FB Categories
No Notes

EB Categories

No Notes

Demand Data Comparison for December & November 2011 Visa Bulletin Movement





EB3-ROW-M-P Future Movement 
EB3-ROW-M-P moved to cut-off date of 15 January 2006 as expected based on current demand and available visas used on monthly basis. I do not want to sound like a broken record, but there is always some hidden demand and other regularly old PD cases  that continuously become documentarily qualified, thus receiving visas from the monthly allocation. Some of these cases are old  and are captured in I-485 pending inventory. On average 1500-1600 demand is generally reduced on a monthly basis from the available inventory. With the released I-485 pending inventory and recently released demand data, it is becoming more and more obvious that cut-off dates for FY 2012 for this category may not cross 01 August 2006. We will keep an eye on the demand data but anything more than this is less plausible so far.
 
EB3-India & China Future Movement 
EB3-India will continue to move 1 week in each visa bulletin. There could be some substantial movement later in the year but so far this will be the trend. EB3-China is difficult to predict due to high consular processing demand but we expect it to move and cross into PD 2005 for this fiscal year.

EB2-India & China Movement 
Dates for EB2-IC has crossed into cut-off date of March 2008. It is impressive to see that Mr. Oppenheim is taking different approach this year and we should applaud him for his efforts. Since Mr. Oppenheim is taking different course for FY 2012, we believe that we should also keep our dogmatic approach to number crunching away for sometime until it make sense to do so. We should try to speculate what can happen in next few bulletins and successive months from their until summer 2012. We may be 'out to lunch' with this approach but can very well veer back to number crunching if this does not make sense in next few bulletins. 

We believe retrogression is imminent in summer 2012; only exception will be HR 3012  if it will become a law by that time. We know that current movement upto March 2008 from 15 April 2007(Sep VB date) would easily bring demand that could end up using around 28K-30K visas from 140,000 available EB category visas. These are definitely in par with what we would usually see year-to-year with EB2-IC spillover + 5600 annual limits.

Question is so what can we expect from Mr. Oppenheim hereon? Firstly, we can say he has no clue that what real demand is due to such movement and lets presume he might not get hold off this until next two months ( that too only if he decides to persuade USCIS to tell him the numbers based on receipts issued).In reality, he may have to wait for real count on demand until April-May 2012 when such cases will start to become documentarily qualified and USCIS will start requesting for visa numbers. 

That said, Mr. Oppenheim may not still be done with intaking more applications for this fiscal year. First, based on past year trend on visa use, monthly demand and estimations, EB2-IC had always moved around 11 months each year. By moving dates upto March 2008, he had just covered those bases. But still he does not know what would happen with HR 3012, whether it will pass with effective date of 01 September 2011. We know from our estimation on this bill, that cut-off dates until PD June 2008 would easily be current if this bill is passed. With approximation on fall-outs due to unforeseen reason, we can expect PD July-August 2008 to be current. If Mr. Oppenheim will stop such movement from next visa bulletin, he may miss that window on keeping cases ready for adjudication in case HR 3012 will become a law as he mentioned in previous bulletin that it can take 4-6 months to get these cases adjudicated. As I mentioned ,this is a speculation and I may  be out to lunch but we believe in coming bulletin(s), EB2-IC dates may move all the way from June 2008-August 2008.  Once, DOS will have enough applications in hand, it will be pretty straight forward for DOS to retrogress EB2-IC or EB2-ROW in summer 2012, whatever is appropriate based on fate of the bill.

Now who can expect Green Card for FY 2012? and how will dates retrogress? One thing  to keep in mind with USCIS is that they will approve cases randomly usually based on month of filings, regardless of Priority Date. Now since most of the July 2007 backlog is cleared, I believe in 4 to 6 months when such cases will start becoming documentarily qualified, we will start to see approvals. Usually in such case, application filed at NSC will have upper hand compared to TSC filings due to vast difference in processing times. Generally during these months of the year, TSC will only approve 6000-8000 cases and NSC will approve around 10,000 cases consistently. So please do not be surprised if NSC case that become current in December bulletin will see approval before November bulletin cases. This is very common with USCIS. Approvals will be random. File your cases as perfect as possible so that you do not receive RFEs. In general, FY 2012 for EB2-IC will be exceptional with respect to approvals, with dates all over from August 2007 PD to March 2008 PD getting randomly approved. Once DOS will feel that enough visa numbers are used for EB2-IC based on EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, at that time dates may retrogress upto PD 01 Sep 07- 01 Nov 07. This is when we will start to see some huge numbers in demand data and we can go back to our number crunching and predictions based on calculations. For some time we believe VB movement and approvals at USCIS will be random.