Edited - May, 30 - 2011 for additional information and editorial corrections.Thank you everyone for posting the link to newly released USCIS I-485 Pending Inventory as of June 2011. I have finished analyzing inventory up to some extent. We are glad it was released now since I am continuously working on updating green card calculator. So far until this time some of the highlights of the June 2011 inventory is listed below.
EB2-ROW-M-P
PERM approvals for EB2-ROW-M-P are not converting to I-485 inventory yet. As per released data, demand for EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P category looks low. EB2-ROW-M-P demand is anywhere from 26,600 to 28,600. EB2-ROW-M-P demand can pick up with more I-140 approvals going forward. Please note AOS demand for concurrently filed I-485/I-140 is not considered in the demand data until approval of I-140. EB2-ROW-M-P will continue to stay current for rest of the year.
EB3-ROW
Significant demand for EB3-ROW is seen due to return of many pre-adjudicated cases from local offices to USCIS processing centers (Please see below a comment made by an astute reader). EB3-ROW demand for PDs beyond August 2005 until December 2005 has increased by 2,500 when compared against January inventory. From January until May 2011, pending inventory until 01 January 2006 has only reduced by 3,500. EB3-ROW will not cross 2005 until December 2011. Total Demand until December 2005 is around 17k.
EB3-India
Total inventory for EB3-India until May 2006 has reduced from 47,087 to 44,682, indicating EB3 to EB2 porting of ONLY 2,400 from January until May 2011. Starting 01 June 2011, USCIS will see post PD June 2006 upgrade demand. We expect this demand to be around another 1500 maximum. Total upgrade demand from EB3 to EB2 for FY 2011 should not be more than 4,500.
EB3-China-Mexico-Philippines
These categories are progressing as expected. We expect them to move as per predictions. Please note EB3-P will be moving with EB3-ROW for rest of the year.
Please note - This analysis is solely based on released inventory.
EB2-ROW-M-P
PERM approvals for EB2-ROW-M-P are not converting to I-485 inventory yet. As per released data, demand for EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P category looks low. EB2-ROW-M-P demand is anywhere from 26,600 to 28,600. EB2-ROW-M-P demand can pick up with more I-140 approvals going forward. Please note AOS demand for concurrently filed I-485/I-140 is not considered in the demand data until approval of I-140. EB2-ROW-M-P will continue to stay current for rest of the year.
EB3-ROW
Significant demand for EB3-ROW is seen due to return of many pre-adjudicated cases from local offices to USCIS processing centers (Please see below a comment made by an astute reader). EB3-ROW demand for PDs beyond August 2005 until December 2005 has increased by 2,500 when compared against January inventory. From January until May 2011, pending inventory until 01 January 2006 has only reduced by 3,500. EB3-ROW will not cross 2005 until December 2011. Total Demand until December 2005 is around 17k.
"You said: "Significant demand for EB3-ROW is coming from Consulates abroad."
I don't think that can be correct, since the USCIS Inventory does not include those cases.
I would conclude that they are pre-adjudicated cases with a not yet Current PD, returned by the Local Offices to TSC following a successful interview.
They seem mainly concentrated at the end of 2005, so that implies there are a lot more cases with later PDs in 2006 and 2007 still at the LO awaiting interviews."
EB3-India
Total inventory for EB3-India until May 2006 has reduced from 47,087 to 44,682, indicating EB3 to EB2 porting of ONLY 2,400 from January until May 2011. Starting 01 June 2011, USCIS will see post PD June 2006 upgrade demand. We expect this demand to be around another 1500 maximum. Total upgrade demand from EB3 to EB2 for FY 2011 should not be more than 4,500.
EB3-China-Mexico-Philippines
These categories are progressing as expected. We expect them to move as per predictions. Please note EB3-P will be moving with EB3-ROW for rest of the year.
Please note - This analysis is solely based on released inventory.
EB2-India & China
- EB2-ROW-M-P - FY 2011 worst-case (taking into account Jan and June inventory) demand expected is around - 28,600 - On Average Spillover expected is - 6,000
- EB1- FY 2011 worst case demand expected- 21,506 - On Average Spillover expected is - 19k-12k = 7,000
- EB5 - FY 2011 worst case demand expected - 1,880 - On Average Spillover expected is - 8,000
- Porting does not look more than 2,800 until this inventory. Please assume 1,500 maximum spillover for PD post July 2006.
6000 + 7000 + 8000 - 1500 = 19,500 (enough to just reach 15 July 2007)
What to expect?
Anything more than 23,000 spillover means either EB2-IC will get current for small time or at least reach late 2007 as long as NVC has enough pipeline to support the demand . If NVC does not have enough demand then some portion of these visas will be utilized to approve pre-adjudicated cases from EB3-ROW. These numbers have to be used by September 2011 in order to be count these visas for current fiscal year. Again, please note this is solely based on inventory and this can change with how PERM/I-140 approvals will convert into I-485 inventory for EB2-ROW or other EB3 to EB2 Porting demand.
Recommended Action for EB2-IC (Chances are 50%)
Please make sure that the required documents for I-485 filings is upto date for an individual and ready for small window that may open in few months.
Most importantly prepare for long lead items like your birth certificate et al so that they are in place with right name and place of birth.If not then have your notarized affidavits ready from your home country.
Please note though chances are small but if we have more 23,000 unused visa spillover then DOS has to move dates to get unused visa numbers utilized before September 2011. In case large number of unused visa numbers are available, USCIS will not have the capacity to process the entire load, and thus load have to be shared among Consular Posts abroad by advancing dates more than required in August - September 2011 and retrogressing it in October 2011.
If by any chance this demand is not observed by end of this fiscal year, EB2-IC is still expected to move into late 2007 sooner or later in FY 2012.
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