Summary of the Bill
The bill aims to eliminate per-country visa limits, which are currently causing severe backlogs in green card. As of right now, the Immigration and Nationality Act allows for only 140,000 employment-based visas to be allocated each year. At present, the percentage of visas that can be allocated to any one country is capped at 7% percent of all of the employment-based visas available.
Under the Fairness for High-Skilled
Immigrants Act, the per-country limit on employment-based visas would
be eliminated by 2015 after a 3 year phase-in period (FY 2012, FY 2013 and FY 2014). During the 3 year
transition, the vast majority of Employment Based visas would be
allocated on first-in-first out basis in order to eliminate the current
backlogs.
As pointed by one of our reader, an amendment presented by Rep Lofgren to this bill was approved by the committee. As per the amendment, final rules as followed will beapplied to EB2 and EB3 category only. No change in rule is expected for EB1, EB4 and EB5.
In FY 2012, backlogged pending cases irrespective of country with earlier priority date would receive unreserved visas - 85% of the visa allocation within a category with respect to . In FY 2013 and FY 2014 they would receive 90% of the visa allocations within a category. There is a limit of 25% for reserved visas and 85 % for unreserved visas that could be made available for a single country under this bill. Reserved visas will be only available until FY 2014 (and in general will be used by ROW-M-P based on current backlog). After FY 2014, all visas (there will be no reserved or unreserved visas) within a category will be used strictly for backlog reduction solely based on first-in-first out (FIFO) regardless of country of birth. Please note that there is no change in spillover rules, unused visas will be allocated regardless of country strictly based on priority date from one category to other category during later quarter in a fiscal year.
Regardless of these updates estimation do not change, as at no point any country for first three phase in period will use more than 85% of the limit.
In FY 2012, backlogged pending cases irrespective of country with earlier priority date would receive unreserved visas - 85% of the visa allocation within a category with respect to . In FY 2013 and FY 2014 they would receive 90% of the visa allocations within a category. There is a limit of 25% for reserved visas and 85 % for unreserved visas that could be made available for a single country under this bill. Reserved visas will be only available until FY 2014 (and in general will be used by ROW-M-P based on current backlog). After FY 2014, all visas (there will be no reserved or unreserved visas) within a category will be used strictly for backlog reduction solely based on first-in-first out (FIFO) regardless of country of birth. Please note that there is no change in spillover rules, unused visas will be allocated regardless of country strictly based on priority date from one category to other category during later quarter in a fiscal year.
Regardless of these updates estimation do not change, as at no point any country for first three phase in period will use more than 85% of the limit.
Estimation of cut-off dates movement each year if HR 3012 becomes a law
We have summarized the estimation of cut-off date movements for EB category if HR 3012 will become a law effective 30 September 2011. In general, EB2 category will be backlogged for 3-4 years whereas EB3 category will be backlogged for 8-9 years. During estimation of such cut-off dates, it was assumed that EB2 category will not receive more than 15000 spillovers or unused visa. 15000 seems like far optimized estimation after considering that with this new bill, EB2 backlogged countries would receive spillover from EB1, EB4 and EB5 (not EB2-ROW as allocation are very less). With time and current backlog, we expect EB5 at best would yield 5000 and EB1 only 10,000.
It is also assumed that EB2 category will not be current for quite some time as EB2-ROW will be backlogged until 2015 and new EB2-IC demand will always be replenishing inventory. That said, EB3 will not receive any spillover anytime soon. This is an assumption and reality may be different. EB1 category is always assumed current for sake of simplicity in calculations.
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| Generally Reserved will be used by ROW-M-P; Unreserved will be used by I-C for initial years |
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354 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 354 Newer› Newest»In real terms, it hardly makes any difference to EB2 India. What do you think CM?
Will this bill be beneficial for someone with PD April 2007 EB3 ROW? thanks
sorry guys but can someone explain it more as i look on it eb3 will only move jan 2006 for fy 2012, is that for the whole year?i hope cm you can shed some light on what will be the trend if this will be approved until what PD will it moved for fiscal year 2012 eb3 P
This is an incorrect estimation. Bill has changed after amendment was added. There is no reserved quota for ebb & no 70% limit. Check the amended bill
I will check the amendment but still estimation will no change as at no point in above estimation 70% is reached for any country including EB2-I. 28000 of 34000 is still lot for backlogged country and with spillover this will not matter as it will bring everything to same level.
When the per country limit is abolished how come EB3 will not be current after 2015. Also the bill says that it was strictly FIFO, so not sure how would the EB category applies here. I think estimation has to be adjusted.
meant to say 15/10/10% reservation does not apply to EB1 and is limited only to EB2 & EB3 visa numbers. That is the main purpose of the amendment added by Rep. Lofgren and to avoid EB1 getting a cut off date & then EB3 applicant from a low used country getting priority over EB1. It makes EB1 FIFO from 2012 and not wait until 2015. Also amendment changes the max % given to single country in FIFO method to 85% and not 70% as listed here. I feel this estimation needs a considerable revamp.
No the maximum number of visa per state should not exceed 70% of the total unreserved visas. Here is the link for the final bill
http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/pdf/112hr3012.pdf
Read the last section of the bill regarding numbers.
So effectively EB3-ROW will so almost no movement for 3 years...
"In FY 2012, backlogged countries would receive unreserved visas - 85% of the visa allocation within a category. In FY 2013 and FY 2014 they would receive 90% of the visa allocations within a category"
I am not sure this is correct. It's the 15%/10%/10% that are "reserved" for all but I and C. The rest are "unreserved," and so while I and C can and will get from the 85%/90%/90% pool, so can ROW. Furthermore, I is effectively capped at 70% = 28,000. So effectively, ROW and C will be sharing 12k visas per year for 3 years. At least, I think this is how it will work.
http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/pdf/10272011%20Lofgren%20Amdt3%20-%20PASSED%20by%20voice.pdf
Read this. The amendment replaces the entire subsection (e) . But the amendment does not talk about 70% limit.
Thanks. What this would mean, though, is that at the end of 2012, all EB3 I is cleared up to approximately 1 Jan 2005 (maybe a bit after that--30k EB3 I until 1 Jan 2005). Since there are only 9k EB3 I filers after that until 1 Jan 2006, and an additional 10-11k EB3 I filers until 1 Jan 2007, the following fiscal year, wouldn't a bigger chunk of the unreserved visas go to ROW, since by then EB3 I and C would then move in tandem with ROW?
In real terms, all it does is gives guaranteed 34000 visas for EB2-IC plus any spillover, which will help to reduce average wait time for EB2 category from 5 to 3 or so years.
No it does not help EB3-ROW with respect to current situation (may be in long run when EB3-IC demand in less in later years). It makes your current wait from 1.7 years to 3.5 years.
If this bill will pass , movement for EB3-ROW-M-P will be very slow until EB3-IC will catch up with them. With current backlog, it means not much movement for EB3-ROW-M-P for next two or more years.
Thank you for pointing out the amendment and we have updated the table and blurb accordingly.This will not change any estimation as while going through these calculations I was very cognizant of this limit and at no point any country was even close to using full 70 % let alone 85%.
This was true for EB2-India as whenever demand for them was greater than 28000 (while I was using 70%), EB2 -C was far above 6000 for that PD. So assuming FIFO and available unreserved visas and 85% limit, these assumptions still hold. Even after that 15000 spillover is available, those movement will still be same for those countries.
Even for EB3-I for first year they including EB3-C is using around 36000 visas. My personal belief is that EB3-C demand in I-485 inventory is not real representative of real NVC demand. EB3-C demand from few months or last year has used around 50% CP demand. It is so complicated with respect to EB3-C that Mr. Oppenheim himself is never able to give any real estimate of its movement. EB3-C category is real menace and should not be over looked. I feel my assumption of 15% CP demand for this category is far underestimated.
Other difficult category is EB3-ROW but I will talk more about it in reply to "backlogged".
Any idea what is the proportion of I:C in EB2? This will help determine if the per country limit (70% or 85%) will be redundant or not. For example if the ratio is 7:3, we should not worry about limit of 70%. I guess this data can come from PERM filing if there is a way to know distribution.
EB3 category will still have only 40,000 visas. Simple calculations of total demand upto today 325000/40000 = 8.5 years. That said, this category still cannot be current for next 8.5 years even if we assume that no applications will be filed after today.
This bill aims to reduce backlog by removing country cap limit but not changing annual limit of 140K visas for EB category. It is just that visas will be removed from 182 different buckets and moved into one bucket to use them for approval strictly based on old PD.
On that note, this does not mean in few years from now DOS/USCIS will not plan to move dates more abruptly for EB3 category post July 2007 to intake new demand and then retrogress it. This estimation is only when can really expect you to receive GC.
Yes very slow movement for for first three years until EB3-IC will catch up.
I understand many people do not consider EB3- ROW backlogged but in actuality it is as it is not "current" but still I changed the wordings to make it more sensible. I hope this helps.
Your understanding about how the bill will work is correct and hence if you will see FY 2013 estimation for EB3, both reserved and unreserved category share same PD.
Please see my reply to "Aswlop" before you read this.
Apart from EB3-C having high CP demand, EB3-ROW has huge number of hidden demand plus 15% CP demand which never makes to I-485 inventory.
Simple example of this can be seen here - http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/08/eb3-row-fy-2011-estimation-of-visa.html
EB3-ROW from time to time see atleast 60-70% demand that is always added to the inventory once dates become current. Last year EB3-ROW inventory only reduced by 13000 even 29800 is available. 7000 visas were later added to the inventory.
So this whole movement is not as simple as using I-485 inventory to estimate movement. I do not claim that I know everything but given estimation is far more optimized. Once EB3 PD will cross December 2004 (since EB3-I CP demand is just 5%), EB3-C-ROW-M-P will slow down movement considerably due to high variable demand inventory to inventory.
PERM data is available here - http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/p/perm-database-eb-category.html and use it estimate proportion month to month. It keeps on varying.
In general, I would not even bother about 85% limit (as this limit for a single country will never be reached unless it is the only one which is backlogged) and just use 36000 + 15000 (spillover) = 51000 (49000 for FY 2012) to estimate where dates will move each year. Even if EB2-I will use more or less than maximum visa, PD for category will have to be same.
Simple calculations for EB2-IC tells that there are 192k - 10K ROW from inventory = 182K cases until Q2 FY 2011 (that is until where data is analyzed in above table). Apart from that Q3 FY 2011 PERM have 8200 EB2-IC approvals (http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/08/perm-approvals-processing-time-q3-fy.html)
So 182K + 8200*2.25 = 200450 EB2-IC cases until FY 2011 Q3.
So assuming 51K visas for EB2-IC every years, it will atleast take 200450/51000 = 3.9 years to complete this backlog and get EB2-IC current too Q3 level. This is simple calculations and is depicted in above estimation when Feb 12 will get GC in FY 2015.
*Please note above estimation is only to receive GC and dates may become current earlier and retrogress so that DOS can intake demand.
CM, do you think that this bill will become law?
I am not sure about that as in this environment there is less focus on immigration but with kind of lobbying it si receiving it might become a law. It totally depends how this will go in House. It has a very long way to go as of now.
If this bill becomes a law, do cut-off dates of EB3row-m-p may have slower movements compared to the present trend setting aside that bill? So if I'm EB3 row-m-p, I may think that even though the boat is not sailing smoothly, why rock the boat for a more rough sailing? In my understanding, IC are the only ones benefited with this bill.
HI CM
After passing the law you mentioned,
Is there any possibility for nurses to be in skilled worker category ?
As ,we were in skilled worker before retrogression.
What percent do you think H.R.3012 will become a law .
How sad it is for long waiting we have had in last 6 years .
This bill is not fairness actually! eb3 will suffer and i dont understand the trend of FIFO,Why not make a law or propose a bill that will impact positively for all category, Lot of us waiting for 8 years plus. CM is there a chance that we can get AED my priority date is 2010 i dont care about green card i mind about how i can work anyway I can wait for that green card no matter how long that is.
My category is eb3 P.
Thanks for the response. Can I ask a methodology question? I notice you use the USCIS I-485 inventory report plus a CP factor for the pre-July 2007 estimates, and the the PERM data for post-July 2007 estimates. Why don't you use the State Department demand data for the pre-July 2007 estimates, since they theoretically incorporate both USCIS data and CP data, and are what they use to determine cutoff dates?
Also, for pre-July 2007, wouldn't most of the only hidden demand already be factored in by now in the demand data, since CIS has instructed local offices to send all pre-adjudicated I485s to service centers and the consular outposts are quite good at reporting applications?
Sorry for the questions. Just trying to figure this whole thing out, and I really appreciate all your efforts.
Me too, eb3p w/ pd july 2008, if just could file I485 and get EAD should be fine, never mind about the green card yet, just an EAD.
Where do we find all these data you mentioned? I can only find demand data and inventory data but they are not same as what you mentioned above.
So this bill is only in Fairness to India and China and will be Unfairness to ROW-M-P?
To add to previous reply, I notice from your data that there is cumulatively 53,099 EB3 demand up to the end of 2005, and an additional 41,640 EB3 demand for 2006, for a total of about 95k cumulative demand until the end of 2006. I understand that this includes EB3 I and C, but I'm not sure why based on these figures, why the cutoff date will only reach Mar 2006 for ROW after the second year of the law, since 80,000 EB3 visas will be allocated in two years. Wouldn't the cutoff date be around 3Q or 4Q of 2006 by the end of FY 2012-2013?
Good observation. For first year we have only 36000 for backlog and then next year 40000 as dates will move close to where ROW are. With 76000, you should end up near June 2006. But 15% CP is far more optimizedand within next inventory you will see lot of EB3 ROW 2006 demand will show up which will be far greater than 15%. Including EB3-C demand from CP post October 2004, June 2006 will never be seen. Hence I just recalibrated it to March 2006. These are just ball park dates add 2 or 3 months plus/minus to it always.
Regarding your other question about not using demand data, I will reply later in the evening.
First table comes right off current I-485 pending inventory. Second table comes from PERM data analysis - http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/p/perm-database-eb-category.html.
Adding two tables and assuming some consular processing demand, you will get above comprehensive table.
how is this unfair?
Imagine If you were standing in the grocery line to buy milk and the person on the counter said you cannot buy milk because 5 people from your country have already bought milk and then person on the counter sells milk to people of other countries that were behind you in the line…. Will that be fair to you?
CM,
Here is what you mentioned in your post about November VB.
•People who missed boat in 2007 from PD 15 April 2007 = 2865
•Carry over PWMB from FY 2011 that will be "doc qual" = 350
•Visible Demand from PD 15 April 2007 - July 2007 = 8000
Can this nos. be verified with the latest 485 inventory report? I dont see 8000 pending applications for the period 15th April-July 2007. Do you think there will be more applications coming? I know inventory report does not take into account CP demand. But I am assuming it is very less for India.
Also do you think there is a need to recalculate PWMB nos based on this inventory report?
Thanks in advance for your inputs.
My PD is Jun 25 2008. What are chances in coming bulletins?
When do you think i will be able to apply 484?
I meant 485
Setting the bill aside, EB3 row-m-p was predicted to move to July 2006 for FY2012. Now, referring to the table above with the bill, reserved visas will be used by row-m-p, it will just move to march 2006 for FY2013. And I have read here that eb3row-m-p will move very slow until eb3IC will catch up. So does it implies that eb3row-m-p will be slowed down and IC will catch up? They can move IC as fast as wanted, no question on that, but to slow down row-m-p is what I'm saying, did you get what I mean? Now i will throw back the question to you, will that be fair to you? If I'm wrong with my understanding about this bill, please correct me, I just referred it to the tables and comments on this page.
All people in EB3 ROW must oppose this bill by writing a letter to representative in congress in the following website: http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-h3012/show . This will affect citizens from Korea, all Europe, South America, Mexico, Africa, Australia to name a few. We must act!, there is a strong lobbying in favor so it is up to us to end this bill. Also pretty soon it should affect people in EB2 ROW as well.
Just hang in there until next 2-3 bulletins and you may get a chance to file I-485.
Problem with using demand data is it changes month to month and only includes those cases for whom visa is already requested to dos. It does not consider all the pending inventory at USCIS and NVC. Some time visa are demanded and allocated in same month and such demand will never be seen in released demand data. In past I have looked at both but inventory seems more representative of the demand. CP demand with a specific factor has worked very well for the respective country-category type.
Also apart from the inventory, I am also considering People who missed the boat during July 2007 for EB3 ROW M P I C. There are around 13000 cases including dependents that missed such opportunity. earlier hidden demand was assumed to be from LO but now inventory also report cases from field offices but still such demand would show up every time. From past few months EB3 ROWMP is just using 1400-1600 visas from inventory even though 2950 is available for them together every month. This tells you that at least 50% is hidden or CP demand which comes once cases get current.
So in all this whole thing gets complicated but I have found using inventory and CP factor has made my data and calculation more close to reality. But this does not mean you can't figure out same thing using just demand data and your own favors. There is nothing holy about what you do. It Ishtar matter of comfort , precision and accuracy that I received with this method.
Unfortunately there is no provision to provide EAD unless your dates are current and you will file for I-485.
At one time USCIS was thinking about allowing pre-registration of i485 but I am not sure where are they with this yet.
Around 50% chance of becoming a law so far.
There is no such provision that made it to this bill. It is a separate bill but was never considered by judiciary committee in last session.
Please use the link above to tell your representative to approve the bill.
Why there should be seperate queue for each country. The FIFO arrangement is fair. Every non american who wants a green card gets in the queue and get it when his or her turn comes.
I'm surprised by the comment by Mark. Why the heck he or she needs a special treatment.
Those 19376 projections were for the visas that will be used for approvals for this fiscal year once date moved to 01 NV 2007
If you will see first table derived from current inventory,until 2007 there are 9556 pending I-485 which include these 8000 and few porting demand. Some PWMB from May_ June VB may have made into this inventory. PWMB from July VB date is not expected to be in this inventory. Other than this PWMB after 15 th April 2007 will not make into inventory until next released report as these were filed after 01 October 2011.
Thank you CM
I think you are right mark! bring it on! It's not fair that only India and China have the right to corner a lot of visas. Anyway a lot of them are not what they seem to be.
Mark056c- this is employment based and not for diversity. there are other visas for diversity and people from india/china cannot apply under that quota. thereis no contry limit for h-1, so why should there be a limit on eb visas? the name os the bill says it all- fairness
One more democrat added as a co-sponsorer of the bill!
H.R.3012 is not fair for EB3 ROW .How it is fair when EB3 ROW is not only one country!!!!all of the countries except china, india and philippin are in this category .It is rediculous how somebody thinks it is fair and they say about fairness.
Imagine in another grocery store there are 20 counters and 18 counters have 3 customers each except 2 counters, counter A and B with 10 customer each (assume there was a reason why these people chose counters A and B). Now the store owner said they will close all counters except counter A and counter B. What do you think the people in the other counters will think? DO you think they will say "OH IT'S OK, IT'S ONLY FAIR"?
And someone below even made an analogy like it's a line in a grocery store of people who wants to buy milk. Now consider this situation...What if there are 10 counters open for 5 items or less only and 2 counters open(Counters A and B) for 6 items or more. There are 10 people in queu in A and 12 in B while only 2 or 3 people in the rest of the counters. Suddenly the store owner said he will close all clounters except A and B so all those other people will have to go to counter A or B. Who do you think will say "IT'S FAIR" and who will say "IT'S NOT FAIR"?
If only people from I or C can avoid insisting to everyone that it is "Fair". It is RELATIVE. Even the title of the bill was misleading. They should have made it "Fairness to India and China for High Skilled Immigrant Act" since it is really directed to two countries only. The big question is "WHY"? Is it to mislead the American people that this bill is for the benefit of all future immigrants and not only of these two countries, maybe to play safe? It is really sad that people have to wait decades to get greened but to say that this bill is fair for everyone is like saying "Black is White".
As I have said before maybe here or in another forum, We'll just have to wait and see if this bill will pass into law and if it does, then We (R M and P) have to accept it and weep while our friends in I and C celebrate. Or if it does not .....back to business as usual.
Interesting post from OH law firm - http://www.immigration-law.com/
11/01/2011: The Rank of H.R. 3012 Bill Soared to Number One of the Weekly Top Five Pending Legislative Bills in the Legislative Bill Report Site
In the Legislative Information Site of the Library of Congress, Thomas, this bill has moved up from the second most hit bills to number one most hit bill this week reflecting the attention this bill has been receiving from the employment-based immigrants, businesses, and for that matter, the opponents of the bill. Despite the popularity of this bill, this bill is not in this week's House floor schedule at this time. The schedule can change before the end of the week, though. It depends on the House Majority Leader's scheduling from the House calendar.
11/01/2011: Congressman Rush Holt (D) Joins Sponsorship of H.R. 3012
Yesterday, the Democratic Congressman, Rush Holt from New Jersey joined the sponsorship of this bill making this bill more "bi-partisan" legislative bill. Accordingly, the number of co-sponsors for this bill have increased to four, including the powerful Democratic immigration legislation leader in the House, Zoe Lofgren from California.
Boy, this bill is receiving such a large scale attention, and now another member joins in the bipartisan effort. The grassroots movement has become only stronger since the bill passed the markup in the judiciary committee.
There has never been so much push and optimism towards any immigration bill in the last 4 years. Also, due to its noncontroversial nature, this bill stands a very large probability of passing the ranks of bipartisan support.
We are converging to a point, where failure of this bill to become law may be such a big disappointment and hard pill to swallow after all these efforts and momentum that I doubt another such monumental effort can arise in near future. It literally looks *now or never*. I sincerely hope it is taken up for a vote on the house floor as soon as possible. Time is very critical - the sooner the bill continues clearing each hurdle, the more the momentum can be sustained.
In this case, every one has only one item.
I think you missed the point.
The filter, to know which counter to fall in line to, is the number of items a grocer has in his basket or cart which is analogous to that of a citizen of say country XYZ (the customer) with the number of its citizens who wants to migrate to US (the items in his basket or cart).
Got you. Instead of consuming lesser time since one is in queue with lesser items and customer, he/she will be delayed for some time since he/she was asked to join the counters with more customers with more number of items.
What did you mean by this CM? That waiting time for EB3-ROW will become much longer assuming this bill becomes a law compared to the present trend and situation?
With the current trend when do you think I can get EAD with a PD of Jan 2010 EB2I?
Thanks
In Response to RMP Comments
Let me ask you this would it be fair to you if a person from your country in the same EB category as you who had a PD later then your PD got his green Card before you?
No, people in the other counter should not Say it’s Okay because that will not be fair. If the other lanes have to be closed then the people in the other lanes should be placed in counter A and B in front of the people already in line A and B if they went to their line (other lines beside A& B) before them (FIFO). The reason I believe that is fair is because no one knew what line could be closed when.. Wouldn’t you agree if you were in another line and stood in that line before a person in line A and B stood in line and suddenly your counter was closed wouldn’t you liked to be placed in front of that person that came and stood in Line A after you?
Would it be fair to you if a person from your country in the same EB category as you who had a PD later then your PD got his green Card before you?
No, people in the other counter should not Say it’s Okay because that will not be fair. If the other lanes have to be closed then the people in the other lanes should be placed in counter A and B in front of the people already in line A and B if they went to their line (other lines beside A& B) before them (FIFO). The reason I believe that is fair is because no one knew what line could be closed when.. Wouldn’t you agree if you were in another line and stood in that line before a person in line A and B stood in line and suddenly your counter was closed wouldn’t you liked to be placed in front of that person that came and stood in Line A after you?
Actually eb3 philippines will suffer if this bill becomes a law because eb3 india and china have a lot of eb3 backloged since 2004 so therefore they are the one goes to the table first and eb3 philipppines halt on its movement. My Question is why create a bill that almost not helpfull to everyone only India and china will benefit a lot because they had many applicant that has been pending and furtheremore new ones.Write your letter to congress and explain why?? this bill not helpfull.
If they are really serious regarding this matter they should create a bill or propose to eliminate the dependent from annual numerical.Somehow, sometimes many of us are frustrated with the US immigration policy.I always remeber the big P stands for patience.......God bless us all.
FIFO is the only fairness. Those who are talking against this bill is the selfish and narrow minded people. Let God bless them
I see. So even though the shopper has only 1 item, because S/he born in india or china, should stay in the longer line regardless how early S/he came to the counter.
Is my understanding correct ?
hi CM,
Thanks for the info.
my PD is 10/18/2004, EB3 China. Without H.R.3012, I would wait about 3-4 more months to become current. According to your prediction above, I would be current right away if H.R.3012 is passed? Please confirm when you get a chance.
Thanks again
It means that EB3 will be moving a month or two every year until EB3-IC will catchup. As soon as this bill will pass EB3- ROW M P will retrogress to Jan 2006 or become U as they have already used 6000 visas so far.
4 years from today.
That's right.
because everyone is recruited for one's skill not for country. US has no love affair with India, China and Phillipines.
Fight yes. But that would be for an unintended privelege.
Thanks for your reply. If I understand you correctly, we want (monthly decrease in USCIS I485 inventory) / (theoretical monthly allocation) to be as close to 1 as possible, and any difference reflects the percentage of CP and/or hidden demand (or wastage). I understand these are merely estimates, which admittedly I found a little pessimistic, but now I think I understand the methodology. Thanks again.
My PD is Aug. 31, 2006 - Phils. If HR3012 passes, how will it affect me? When can i file for AOS i-485?
CM seems you are very eager that this bill will be passed. biased?
The best course I believe at the moment is not to speculate and react to this as it hasn't been passed into a law yet. So things are running as it should be. We have to consider that there is still the upcoming US presidential elections. The new president could either sign it or veto it, depending on his agenda.... I myself will be greatly affected when this is passed into a law (double my waiting time) but its no reason to cause unwanted worry at present as nothing has been layed out in stone. All of us who visit this site has one purpose, to get a glimpse of that elusive light at the end of the tunnel. I think we could channel our frustrations unto other more productive outlets than venting it here in this site who has offered us with progressive news on US immigration and has our best intentions at heart.
Nahh.... I am not biased or against the bill as I have past that point long time ago where it could be detrimental or beneficial to me and my family. This is the reason, i am staying away from this discussion becuase whatever will be the result of this bill it is going to hurt one portion of audience and elate others. HR 3119 is the most favorable bill for the whole community but it is not going to happen until 2-3 years atleast till CIR is resolved and if HR 3012 is passed it will be dead for ever as all lawmakers will think they are done alleviating legal-immigration concern.
Whole point about posting this article was to give individuals feel for the cut-off date movement so that they can make an informed decision to advocate wisely in favor or against the bill.
That said, I still think bill has long way to go. It still has not made it to the House calendar. In terms of steps it has just crossed limited hurdles; no one have even started debating about it. Once that will began, number of amendments or conditions could be added to this in Senate and this would have to go back and forth in Senate/House several times before it is approved or dropped.
CM, thank you for a honest answer. We bloggers appreciate your efforts here. thanks again
hi,sir my PD is Jan.23 2009 China. Do you think ,when can I submit my 485.
Thank you very much.
Yeah, and he's not replying most of the comments coming from countries other than IC.Sorry if I offended you but that's my observation.
thanks, CM. Then I hope this bill will not be passed...
My answer to your 1st question is NO because we are in the same country and category. But that sometimes happen with USCIS :( There is a RULE or LAW and even how unfair it is, there is nothing you can do about it.
Now let us take it in another perspective. Do you think the people in counter A and B (who are supposed to be the line for I and C) will agree that those people from the other counter will be ahead of them?
Let us assume customer Xand Y are in counter E (. That counter was closed and they were told to moved to the front of the line in either counter A or B since they were about to be entertained by the cashier in counter E.
You are in counter A and is about to be entertained by the cashier but you were told to moved back to let customer X, Y and Z ahead. What will you feel?
In an actual grocery store it is really FIFO but that is PER COUNTER. You close some of the counter, what happens to the FIFO? Should the people in E fall behind or cut ahead of the line in A or B? It will be chaos dont you think?
It would be nice to the proponents of this bill if it gets attention of the media. There should be Ads here and there and everywhere to highlight it to show that it will relieved the sufferings of India and China.
Hi CM,
How will bill HR3012 if it becomes a law affects the dependents (derivatives) with pending I-485 of the EB3 RM & P primary applicants with approved I-485? Do these dependents, say with priority dates at late 2004 to 2005 or early 2006, have to wait for their approval until the backlogged of EB3 India and China clear?
Hi CM and any other expert
My PD is Jan 13, 2006 EB 3 ROW. It is very possible it could be current this coming VB. God wlling.
I have a question (sorry if had been already posted before). Once any PD is current , how long do we have to introduce the I-485, or status change, has to be the same very day is current or we have at least that month while that PD is current ?
Thanks in advance. Keep doing the good Job.
Blackjack…. When did I not reply to you or other EB3-ROW-M-P diligently in a timely manner as soon as I can? In past you had question on your friend’s legal status, I-140 and H1-B extension, I tried to cover it best to my knowledge. This bill is controversial hence there is no point in me getting involved with the discussion. Only comments I am replying on this article is about data, analysis and methodology because that is my forte and I love to discuss that to improvise and learn. Other than that I believe my intentions is to help everyone even if you or other folks think otherwise.
Without this bill, you may be able to file your GC by November-December 2012. If bill would pass, you may have to wait until FY 2014.
5-6 years from today.
yes they will have to wait. They will only receive GC when their PD is current.
Say you are current in this VB (which is December VB), you can file GC anytime from 01 Dec 2011 until dates are current. December VB makes cases eligible from 1 Dec - 31 Dec 2011.
CM, my PD is Jan. 25, 2006 EB3-P. I'm hoping I will be current in January 2012. If this bill passes, does that mean I have to wait longer? How long does it take to get a bill passed and when will it take effect?
I hate this bill 3012. This is not Row fault that there is more Indians applying for GC than the hole freakin world.
Thanks CM. I guess, this bill is really aimed at helping I and C. ROW, M, P will really suffer in FY2012 - 2015 it this will become law.
CM- I have 2 approvals I am waiting for.. one is the GC through H1b.. but the other is an approved i-130 from my wifes citizen mother.. We are in F3 queue with a pd of Sep 2006.. we have discussed the implications on skilled visa wait times, but what about family? Raising per country cap to 15% sounds like it will have a bad impact on me, I am ROW... What do you think will happen to F3 ROW if this bill passes?
This bill has nothing to do with fairness. Immigration is a privilege, not a birthright, US can institute policies on immigration that it deems beneficial to its interests. While it can be argued that having more highly skilled immigrants is in the best interest of the country, it cannot be logically argued that having more skilled immigrants from India, China, or Mexico will be MORE beneficial to US compared to immigrants from other countries. The selection process to determine the "high" skill of the applicants is same for all applicants regardless of their country of origin. Keeping the per country limits in place will keep diversity in Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics fields and will encourage immigrants from smaller countries to become permanent residents as well rather than having individuals from one or few countries dominate the STEM
If H.R. 3012 bill passed, Can I expect during FY 2013?
Senator Goodlatte of Virginia has also joined the race to co-sponsor this bill. If you remember he had previsously introduced HR704 bill in the house to eliminate the diversity immigrant lottery program.
CM , why do you say (for cKing65) that it will be 5-6 yrs from now. EB2 C (assuming for Cking65)is not that bad . i don't get it.
Thx
RT
It may benfit few oversubscribed countries, but it is not designed to benift any countries in particular. it is about helping us business to get best available talent , no matter where they are from.
I agree wih Techy! I know right now ROW are scared as their category will be backlogged but think people, if tomorrow one of this ROW country becomes oversubscribed, they will also say HR 3012 is fair!!!
In any case, Employment base category has no place for country limits.. best talent will get a job and get a greencard.
I agree that it does not solve all of the issue but I think, the congressman here is trying to keep it simple to avoid any controversies. It has to be one step at a time. You will know what i mean if you here the debates at house and senate...
I mean, *you will know what I mean If you "hear" the debates ...*
this is how i interpret this analysis also; i hope it is wrong. it should be FIFO regardless of EB category AND chargeability!
Hi CM,
- your CP of 15% is low. There are 130K waiting at Consular process on 2010.
Hi CM,
Once priority dates are current and applied for GC what is the minimum to maximum time to get Gc in hand.
Thanks in advance.
It will be atleast 2 months before this will become a law. You will be current by then.
I am under EB3-India. My PD is Mar 2005. When will my PD become current if this bill were to pass? Thanks.
I believe with this F3 may retrogress more. I do not know what is your PD with EB category, but I would bet my odds against it more than F3. EB3 even with PD 2008 or less will give you GC faster than F3 with Sep 2006 PD.
Yes I would think so.
That reply was with the anticipation that he/she is in EB3 category, That was not clear from his/her post. if he/she is in EB2 then it will be 2 years from now.
Thanks for the input CM. More power to you!
Yes, for EB3 cases there are 119K cases pending upto 2010 and that number may be little less now but you are right 15% is too low for an estimation.
For EB3-P itself there are 44000 CP cases pending. But since 2008-2009 (do not remember), PERM data contains even CP cases, so that numbers are already included and may not be high as 119K as we think. Good number can be anywhere from 15-30%. This is why I always warn that the movement needs to be re- caliberated for each year.
Although EB3-I cases has 55000 pending until 2007 and usually have no to 2% CP demand, but same assumption of 15% was also added for them. So in all everything may offset each other and numbers may fall into same ball park.
In 1-1.5 year from now if bill is passed.
4-8 months.
Hi CM,
You mean the numbers of EB3 CP pending is from 15-30% of the number of EB3 pending in USCIS(through I-485) ?
Thanks
Yes. But this is only good until 2009. After that PERM data includes those cases.
Hi CM, my PD is Feb 16,2006 EB3P..when can I expect to be current? And if I become current, how long should I wait to have my interview date? Thanks.
I heard petitions from ROW-M-P will be affected if this bill will be passed, the last time i ask when i will be current u said end of 2012 or early mos of 2013, if this bill will be passed when is my pd become current im from phil under eb3 w PD january 2007
Not all on profession that apply thru consular goes to perm. Some profession goes direct to I-140.
http://shusterman.com/registerednursesusimmigration.html
Consular Count is here
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf
but unfortunately it is not breakdown into per year and months.
So I do not understand when you use 2% for when here there are 25K waiting.
Employment Preferences
Country Total
Philippines 47,013
India 25,172
China-mainland born 14,012
Korea, South 8,178
Mexico 4,872
All Others 31,372
Worldwide Total 130,619
I am in EB3 category filed in Oct 2002, I have been patiently waiting for 10 years to get the GC. Do you have an estimate for my case in terms of approval date. Thanks!!
Thanks. Keeping my fingers crossed!
Cm,
Demand data released!!
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/10/hr-3012-estimation-of-eb-category-cut.html#comments
if HR-3012 passed, EB-2 IC will faster or slower than before?
Dec'11 visa bulletin posted on Mumbai consulate website.
http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html
Category India Most Other Countries
F1 1-Sep-2004 1-Sep-2004
FX 8-Feb-2009 8-Feb-2009
F2A 22-Mar-2009 22-Mar-2009
F2B 15-Aug-2003 15-Aug-2003
F3 8-Oct-2001 8-Oct-2001
F4 15-Jul-2000 15-Jul-2000
E1 CURRENT CURRENT
E2 15-Mar-2008 CURRENT
E3 1-Aug-2002 15-Jan-2006
EW 22-Jul-2002 1-Jan-2006
E4 CURRENT CURRENT
E4-Religious CURRENT
CURRENT
Visa bulletin is out! Your prediction for eb3 was totally right! Now i can't wait for your next prediction... Great job cm! And thanks again for sharing your thoughts =)
I did never have questions about a friend's I-140 and H1b extension, you might just had IP numbers as your reference. I made my comments to this blog in a public library with an array of computers to be used by anybody. In fairness to Blackjack, I'm not him/her.I just want to take this opportunity to ask an apology to everyone especially CM for any inconvenience it has caused you.
To Anonymous - "I did never have questions about a friend's I-140 and H1b extension, you might just had IP numbers as your reference. I made my comments to this blog in a public library with an array of computers to be used by anybody. In fairness to Blackjack, I'm not him/her.I just want to take this opportunity to ask an apology to everyone especially CM for any inconvenience it has caused you"
Please do not worry about apology. Lets move on. We are all in this together.
Till now all we have seen pro articles on HR 3012. This first article which is anti-HR 3012. Read it when you will get chance.
http://www.ilw.com/articles/2011,1110-endelman.shtm
hi CM,
question regarding 85% limit: My understanding is that this 85% limit is applied to the number of unreserved VISAs of the year. According to the table above, your understanding is to apply this 85% limit to the total number of VISAs of the year including both reserved and unreserved. Please clarify.
hi CM!
i just want to know what country of origin are you from?
:).. how does it matter? I do not want to put a perception in our reader's mind. So that will be secret for a while. Cheers!!!
When will they pass the bill in senate?
"Should discrimination against an educated workforce from these two countries be shelved only to discriminate against no less talented professionals from everywhere else?"
That is so ridiculus! How HR3012 discriminate against ROW? Will it take longer for EB2ROW get green card than EB2IC?
We have a priority date EB3 Nov2003 when can we expect to get the GC when the bill is passed
What will be the impact on EB2-ROW, how fast will it move and how much will it retrogress when it is passed? How soon is this bill expected to to passed/rejected practically speaking.
Lets say it gets passed in July 2012, will Eb2-ROW retrogression dates start from that date or can be some date earlier and go backwards too?
I believe in fairness all round, but as a nurse i have to have a an eb3 visa, because there is no longer schedule A. This bill will then deem me unskilled!
In another post, you indicated that EB3 P might reach mid-2006 or just past it (assuming the status quo). Am curious as to how this can happen given 2,800 per-country quota. Thanks.
Hi CM,
My PD is Nov 2010. When do you think my PD will become current if HR 3012 become law as of today
Hi CM,
my PD is March 2006 EB3 ROW. Any chance to get current before Hr312 becomes law? I feel so close now, it would suck to get all the way back once again :(
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/latino-partnership-commends-senators-coons-and-rubio-for-forging-bipartisan-consensus-on-immigration-133909198.html
You should be current in a month or two. Once you are current you may receive interview date same month when bulletin becomes effective.
if this will pass effective date of September 30th then you may need to add around 2.5 years more to your current wait time.
I am aware about RNs and their Schedule A requirement as well NIW applicants but still lot of professionals do have to go through PERM process. Those who do not are included in the fudge factor for CP demand.
Current I-485 inventory for EB3- I suggest 51000 visas pending upto July 2007 and demand data that includes CP cases suggests 53000. Which is close to 2% So does it mean there are only 2000 CP cases until July 2007 and 18K cases from there on for EB3-I ? (Note - 25K that you quoted is for entire EB category, EB3-I is 20K)
Answer is NO. You cannot take those data from CP cases on their face value. How it works for India is that since this country is highly backlogged, many attorneys would file such cases as CP at I-140 level and then when dates will become current, they would try to convert CP to AOS. This is mainly done to deal with job loss during retrogression. So whole lot of these numbers are double counted. 2-5% has worked exceptionally for this country and I do not expect it to change. Apart from this Demand Data has captured all the cases until July 2007 and PERM data captures most of the CP cases post 2008.
In 10-11 months for today. Just hang in there. Good Luck.
Faster.
I was under same impression very initial on but when I read the bill carefully it said "85 percent of the total number of immigrant visas under Section 203(b)", which is 85% of 40000
(ii) CALCULATION OF NUMBER- The numbers of visas calculated under this clause for a fiscal year is the number that is equal to 85 percent of the total number of immigrant visas made available under such section 203(b) for such fiscal year.
I am not sure but similar bll has been introduced as a Senate version. This has been done to consider it in House ans Senate parallel, so that if both pass, it can become a law immediately.
How it stands right now, it means more 3-5 years.
EB2 -ROW will stall at June-Nov 11 if this bill is passed for next 2.5 years until EB2-IC catch up. Practically speaking it still has long way to go. They still need to discuss this bill and its counterpart in House and Senate respectively.
Backwards as it may not have enough visa numbers. Outcome may change if effective date for this bill is pushed to next year.
I know most of you have an answer for this. I have been out of touch for too long.
If there are a total of only 24,621 EB2 cases pending and the yearly allotment of EB2's is 40,000 (both numbers are derived from the stats from the article), why would there be a back log in that category (EB2) and why would there be no spill over to EB3? I will appreciate your replies. Thankyou.
i read some news recently regarding this bill cm is it really true that it will also help philipinnes ang mexico..in this bill?
To: FOREIGN AND NATIONAL EDITORS
Contact: CONTACT: Dan Wilson, Shirley & Banister Public Affairs, +1-703-739-5920/+1-703-297-9512, dwilson@sbpublicaffairs.com
Calls on President Obama to Get Involved in the Discussion
WASHINGTON, Nov. 15, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles, a leading voice of Latino conservatives, commended U.S. Senators Chris Coons (D-DE) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) for introducing today the American Growth, Recovery, Empowerment and Entrepreneurship Act. The AGREE Act stems from areas of common agreement between the President's jobs plan, recommendations from the President's Council on Jobs and Competitiveness, and plans put forward by both parties in Congress and includes a provision which eliminates per country caps on employment based immigrant visas and increases the per country cap for family-based immigrant visas from seven to fifteen percent. This same provision is included in H.R. 3012, the Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, which was passed unanimously by the House Judiciary Committee recently. H.R. 3012 was introduced by Congressman Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) and is co-sponsored by, among others, House Judiciary Chairman Lamar Smith (R-TX) and Congressman Luis Gutierrez (D-IL).
"The impact of the AGREE Act immigration provision is quite significant. It will go a long way to reduce the enormous immigrant visa backlog that exists for workers from countries like India and China," said Alfonso Aguilar, Executive Director of the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles. "This is good news for high-tech American companies who currently have a very hard time recruiting and hiring professionals with advanced degrees from abroad simply because there are no visas available.
"H.R. 3012 will also shorten the wait for immigrant visas for people from countries like Mexico and the Philippines who want to come to the U.S. to be reunited with their families. Under the current per country limits, individuals from certain countries have to wait excessive - and sometimes unrealistic - periods of time for a family-based immigrant visa to become available."
At least for Family based but not to Employment based.
What is the title of the other bill
I think u r talking about S.1857.....
I see the no.of co-sponsors are relatively low for this bill......Will it increase the delay time to pass/introduce, it in senate/house
Thanks for the info, CM.
More questions:
- Would you please post a link, which contains "85 percent of the total number of immigrant visas under Section 203(b)", which is 85% of 40000” cited above?
-Each year 2 countries, A & B share unreserved VISAs. If 85% limit is of 40000, then it's possible for the entire year all unreserved (which is also 85% of 40000 for example) VISAs go to a country A. It means, country B would not even get a single VISA that year? It doesn't make any sense to me if the bill is to help both country A & B.
- According to the link you provided http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h112-3012 “(ii) CALCULATION OF NUMBER- The numbers of visas calculated under this clause for a fiscal year is the number that is equal to 70 percent of the total number of immigrant visas made available under such section 203(b) for such fiscal year.” It seems that out of unreserved VISAs, 70% of 40000 is the limit? This makes more sense. As there is 15% of 40000 for Country B to catch up. BTW, the 70 percent is applied to 40000 or 140000?
- Where can I find text of H.R.3012 with latest amendment?
(is this one latest and official? http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/pdf/10272011%20Lofgren%20Amdt3%20-%20PASSED%20by%20voice.pdf
85% limit for a single country is kinda fuzzy to me. It seems that it’s applied to unreserved VISAs?)
Thanks again. I’ve see many articles regarding this bill on the Internet. Your site is the only one providing possible allocation of coming years and predictions if the bill gets passed. It would be very helpful, if there is estimation for how many VISAs for EB2, EB3 that Country A & B could get in FY 2012 after the bill passed.
Also, after this bill passed Country A & B will have shared PD in VB or different? How about all other countries? Each country got its own PD?
As you can see, I am quite confused. Hopefully you can help me understand this complicated bill.
Technically Philippines is not considered any different than ROW in EB category now as they share same PD. Only reason they are still reported oversubscribed is not because of EB category but because of FB category. For a country to be called oversubscribed it should have demand more than 7% of total combined visas for EB + FB. Philippines demand for FB category is tremendously more and hence it is still listed separately for VB. within EB category, Philippines has very less demand for EB1 and EB2 may be 1000 total for a year so EB3 category can end up using as close to 9800-1000 (9800 is 7 % of 140K) to still qualify as oversubscribed. If it was not for FB category, P may end being part of ROW. Same is true for Mexico. On similar basis country like South Korea and Dominican Republic also end up using more than 2800 total visas in EB category each year but they are still part of ROW because they have nothing close to 7% demand for FB category. Hope this will help.
2 years
You may be current in 3 months. I personally believe you will be home without any issue.
Thank you for this article. Very interesting.
Thanks for the clarification.
I think CM is from India.. My two cents.
Thank you very much!
I oppose H.R.3012 - Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act,
Stand with the US citizens dear senators represtntatives.US citizens OPPOSE this Bill..this Bill will infiltrate americans with more Indians and they will trash ur jobs..and we American citizens will end up collecting unemployment check rest of our life because of THESE CHEAP VISA FOLKS FROM INDIA AND CHINA.stand with them aganist US citizens exploitation by the Indian and americans companies here in our home...Our Citizens with hefty student loans are out of work..our younger genration are starving because there parents don't have jobs...Our veterans are out of JOB...At the sametime companies hire VISA HOLDERS FOR work in our country...Indian and American companies..Do u know how many visa holders are working in our country in H1, L1 and EAD..there are 6 Million of these folks 95% from India and China..Do you know Indians companies in USA employ 1 Million Visa Holders mainly from INDIA..99% of these companies employ Visa Holders..they don't hire a single American...Fight for that people..Stop the discrimination against American Citizens..ALL Indian companies in USA hire only Indians or VISA holders..they just don;t hire an america..Take any example of Indian and American consulting BIG and small companies..Top 10 INDIAN IT and consulting companies employ more than 2 MILLION VISA holders in USA in H1, L1 B1 EAD and they have less 100 employees as US citizens..same case for American companies...where WE GO ..FIGHT FOR THAT CAUSE PEOPLE..SEND THESE VISA HOLDERS HOME..CANCEL THERE work permit..we will prosper again..fight for the real cause OCCUPY WALLSTREET FOLKS..Fight against these injustice people..Fight to Increase THERE VISA FEES TO 30k/year SO COMAPNIES CANNOT BRING IN CHEAP WORKERS BUT ONLY BRIGHT AND BEST CANDIDATES TO WORK HERE BY PAYING THE premium..We need people from across the world..across different race..Talent is everywhere in the world..But the scenario is perosn in Germany, France, Africa and Australia wants to come and work here cannot do that because for the last 10 years 95% of all Workd Visa listed above is taken over by Indians and Chinease..In 2011 even though our presideNt INCREASED THE VISA FEES TO $2000 , 82000 OUT OF 85000 IS FILLED BY NOW WHEN AN AVERGAE AMERICA CITIZENS IS HAVING DIFFICULTY IN MEETING ENDS MEET..stop this injustice..Cancell all these work visa's or increase there yearly fees to 30,000/ANnum so that corporates should be just replace an american worker with a CHEAP OVERSEAS WORKER
perception of the american worker has degraded due to the degradation of the american educational system. fix that and there will be more americans hired in high skilled positions. face it, americans cannot be hired because they lack the skill and ask for too much. if companies hire lower skilled americans at higher cost they would go bankrupt and sink the economy more. remove the quota and allow each to go through the process. it should be first in-first out as long as they are qualified.
I completly agree with you.. I oppose HR 3012.
Hi CM,
I wonder what will happen if this bill becomes a law. My PD is Feb 2008 in Eb3.
When should I expect my PD to be close to current?
Thank you
Cheers
I mean when the bill is passed when will my PD be current we filed in nov 2003
MyPD is nov 2003IND and when the bill is passed when my date be current you told people who have PD Oct 2002 a sooner date. PLEASE
http://cbo.gov/ftpdocs/125xx/doc12561/hr3012.pdf
Everyday so many people taking jobs away from american that is nothing new it's happening since Columbus invaded America.
cm , good day! my pd january 30, 2006 eb3 philippines. is there a chance for me to get a visa before hr3012 will pass?please help me enlighten my mind.
Hello CM,
I fall under ROW and my PD is 28 April 2006. Do you think i will get my GC before this HR3012 will be in law ?
Thanks for your advice.
SP
This document which released on 18 November 2011 clears all doubts about 85% limit where it explicitly mentions how it will be used..
as per this, Country A can only receive 85% of Unreserved visas (and not 40,000 which is as per INA Section 203 (b), that was initially stated in original bill draft).
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/C...
Paragraph (2) of subsection (e) sets out rules for the distribution
of the reserved and unreserved visas set under paragraph (1):
• Reserved Visas: Natives of no single country can take more than 25% of the reserved visas.
• Unreserved Visas: Natives of no single country can take more than 85% of the unreserved visas, ensuring that the second largest user of such visas can receive at least 15% of the unreserved visas.
P.S. - That said in any case above projections does not change as previously mentioned. At not point any country was using more than 28K visas in above calculations when considering FIFO model. It looks like number 70% or 85% was crafted carefully keeping numbers in mind :).
Thank you for your post.
Ralph, what is your country of chargeability? If this will become law, EB3-IC will start catching up with ROW. ROW M P may not see much movement for 2 years.
With bill passed, you will be current before October 2012.
You will just make it I believe . That bill still have long way to go.
I see it's on the house calender to be discussed on Nov 29th.......am I right........What can we expect?
Seems like this bill is up for a vote in House on Nov 29
http://majorityleader.gov/floor/weekly.html
Forgot to mention that. I'm in EB3 ROW. does it make a difference?
thanks! CM. I read the same document too last week.
As a result, if this bill is passed then China EB2/3 will definitely go faster than current pase. For China EB3, VB date will still be between India's and ROW's but with more VISAs allocated comparing to current number without this bill's help.
OMG... Are you serious?? I always thought Columbus discovered America and not "Invaded" America..
I would recommend getting out of your house once in a while and picking up a news papaer to understand what is going on in the real world.
Hi CM,
1. How long do you think will it take for this bill to become a law at the earliest?
2. My priority date is 9/16/03 EB3Ind. I don't have a date finalized yet but I will be getting married sometime in 3/12 or 4/12. Do you think I have that much time, before my AOS gets approved (if this bill becomes a law). How many months reasonably do you think I have before my AOS will get approved (if HR 3012) passes.
Thanks for all the hard work you are doing in keeping all of us more aware & informed.
hi again CM, i'm truly worried as to how hr 3012 will affect me and my family. our pd is Nov. 27, 2006, philippines. do you think there is any chance that we can be current before this bill is enacted? if not, how much longer do we have to wait? thank you
This bill is garbage and inevitably will reach nowhere. The fact is the cap, established in 1965, set up a diversity system "to make immigration look like the world." By eliminating the cap, "we have an act that sets up a system to make immigration look like India and China." ...Diversity!!! not "IndiaChinasity"...lol
No jumping lines buddies, you should not take your share of the cake and then call in more of your brothers to grab the rest of the worlds share. Raising the limit from 7% to 90% is far from Fair! First in first out, will come after 2014, for this year and next year, the rest of the worlds quota will be frozen (10-15% is not enough to share among 180+ countries) If this was a good bill it would incorporate recapturing the 300,000 lost visas due to inefficiency of the USCIS. This would eliminate the backlog immediately. People have been in line for over 6 years, and now you want to add 4 years to their time just because your countries are over represented!!! India and China is already getting all the unused visa from other categories..
Far from fair!!! Everybody knew the wait times before they started, no changing rules in the middle of the game!! I strongly oppose a bill that favors only 2 countries (India and China) and forgets about other hard working skilled workers from the rest of the world whi have been in line too (EB3 world wide workers wait 6+ years). Oppose this unfair bill
I doubt it you will make it.
HR 3012 was voted in House just now. Bill has cleared the House with 275 YEA , 7 NAY and 147 NV so far. Voting is still going on.
Thank you CM!!
Can you please explain what this means and what are the next steps.
Well it seems that other nationalities will brace for the worst thing to happen. Well done America, brace for more Indians and Chinese in the future! More will come, and to all EB2 and 3 rest of the world other than this two, forget America they don't need us. They only welcome Indians and Chinese. Seems they like curry and chinese dishes out there!
Hi CM. I am EB3 ROW with priority date of DEC 17, 2007. It appears H.R. 3012 is going to become a low. When I should expect my date to be current with H.R. 3012 in place.
HR 3012 is still not a law. It will now go through Senate Judiciary Committee and voting again in Senate. Whole process in House needs to be repeated and bill should be approved with no amendment. Any amendment added and approved means this has go through House again. This all has to happen before Xmas before congress goes into break else this will take care after congress in session again in late Jan-Feb 2012.
It will now have to go through Senate Judiciary Committee and voting again in Senate. Whole process in House needs to be repeated and bill should be approved with no amendment. Any amendment added and approved would mean this has to go through House again. This all has to happen before Xmas that is when congress goes into break else this will be taken care after congress is in session again in late Jan-Feb 2012.
This is what a bill needs ($$$$$) to get that kind of support from House.
http://maplight.org/us-congress/bill/112-hr-3012/1013214/total-contributions
If you want this bill to pass with flying color in Senate please do not hesitate to contribute to interested group supporting the cause.
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