EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document (thank you to our reader who pointed to this release) - http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf.

Some of the important relevant information can be found on Page 6 of the document which has plots for I-140 EB1 and EB-2 adjudications, including receipts and approvals for the Texas (TSC) and Nebraska (NSC) Service Centers. Report suggests that USCIS has experienced a slight downturn in EB-1 and EB-2 filings over the past five years for both EB-1 and EB-2 (note report does not include National Interest Waiver petitions), with approval and denial rates remaining consistent.

Key point to note here are - 

• EB1-A and EB1-B has high rate of denial rate, around 40% to 60% respectively. 
• EB2 I-140 approval rate is close to 100%
• Respective I-140 filings for each fiscal year 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.
• EB1 majority demand comes from EB1-C and not from EB1-A and EB1-B. Those filings do not look enormous.

Based on I-140 receipt data  and 100% approval rate for EB2 petition, we tried to deduce some I-140 demand for PD 2008, 2009 and 2010.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand based on released data

First of all we started after taking into account the PERMs that were approved for the FY 2008, FY 2009 and FY 2010.

Table I

We know from past analysis that usual break down of PERMs are 65%-35% for EB2-EB3 for India and China, and 50% for EB2-ROW-M-P.  Based on this assumption and 100% approval rate, total I-140 demand for PERMs filed each fiscal year as follow.

Table II

 If we now compare this data with recently released DHS document -http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf. ; then I-140 Receipt numbers come very close to that suggested in above table. Approvals per released DHS document is as follow:

Table III

Reason for difference in two numbers can be accounted based on

• First of all data is based on PERM approvals and some of demand from past fiscal year will roll-over into current fiscal year I-140 demand due to time lag between approval of PERM and filing of I-140s
• Our assumption of 65% and 50% is flat and there may be a difference month to month.
• Please note NIW applicants do not have to file PERM and hence that difference in negated here. 

In addition to above numbers we should remember that lot of PERM cases that were filed with PD 2008 and PD 2009 were audited  and were later approved in FY 2011. Few cases were approved in FY 2010 but we will neglect it for time being. If we will look at the EB2-IC and EB2-ROW-M-P breakup for FY 2011, we can see demand from PD 2008 and PD 2009 that will come from approvals in FY 2011.

This data comes from these articles
a) FY 2011 Q1-Q2 PERM data
b) FY 2011 Q3 PERM Approvals
c) FY 2011 Q4 PERM Approvals

Table IV

 Please note that from above table it is difficult to deduce EB2 I-140 Receipts of 39000 reported in DHS document. Our estimation only shows 21,034 receipts. This is still a mystery to us.

EB2-India & China demand based on Priority Date
To calculate this for now we can neglect the difference that we see in DHS I-140 Receipts data (Table II)  and I-140 demand data from PERM approvals (Table III), then we can roughly estimate total EB2-IC I-140 demand for each fiscal year just by using Table II. In order to capture FY 2011 approvals for old priority dates, we will add EB2-IC demand for each fiscal year to respective approvals in FY 2011. Based on above calculations, estimate for EB2-IC I-140 demand is  (in red)

Table V

Some key points to note

•  I-140 Receipt demand will always lag PERM Approval times.
• Difference between 29000 - 27588 = 1412 from Table II and Table III can account for some demand before October 2007.
• It is assumed that most of the cases for certain priority date is approved in same fiscal year, so total demand upto end of FY 2010 will be same but real numbers for each  PD may be off depending upon PERM approval time within that fiscal year.
• These calculations do not consider any abandon cases due to individuals leaving country, getting lay-offed or re-filing due to long audit processing time, multiple PERM factors or double filings within a family. You can assume anything from 65%-85% for this as a multiple PERM factor.
• This data does not consider any EB3-EB2 portings.
• You can multiply this demand by 2.0 to 2.25 based on dependent factor to get estimate of I-485 demand.

 EB2-India & China I-485 demand based on Priority Date

 To above numbers you can add 8000 visa numbers that was approved for this fiscal year. Also add demand from August 2007-September 2007 plus 4000-5000 PWMBs overall and then based on your estimation of spillover calculate cut-off date on retrogression.


My take will be the option Multiple PERM factor of 75%.
EB2-IC demand , August-September 2007 from PERM data = 4,000
All PWMBs =                                                                             4,500
EB2-IC Approvals for backlogged cases =                                8,000
Demand until Sep 2008 =                                                         25,233
__________________________________________________________

Total I-485 Demand upto September 2008 =                           41,733 

Spillover + annual limit expected at most can be around   28,000

Cut-off Dates for this year can hover around March-June 2008 after retrogression for the best scenario.

PERM Approvals : Q4 FY 2011

Here is a break down of PERM data (certified and certified_expired only) that was processed each month for FY 2011 Q4. Data has been broken down among different PDs that were approved per month in Q4 FY 2011.  Total 16,937 PERMs were approved in Q4- FY 2011. In addition to this, see PERM database based on PD that is updated until FY 2011.

In addition, please see distribution of PERM approvals segregated based on country of chargeability and category. Most of the PERMs filed in FY 2011- Q4 belonged to India and ROW. It is becoming apparent that with passing time, most of the individuals are filing their cases in EB2 category. 

Most importantly it should be noted that the EB2-ROW-M-P demand is progressing towards around 4000 PERMs per quarter, which if continued through out the year may convert into 4000*2*4 Qtr = 32000 I-485 applications for the fiscal year. This means spillover expected from EB2-ROW-M-P at this rate is 3000-7000 depending upon I-485 denial rate of 0%-15%.

H.R. 3012 - Estimation of EB category Cut-Off Date movement if it becomes a law

The Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, H.R. 3012, was introduced by Representative Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) on September 22, 2011 and was approved by judiciary committee for consideration in the house. This bill still has long way to go but as few readers requested us to analyze the impact of this law on current cut-off date movements for EB category, we are providing some rough estimation in this article.

Summary of the Bill

The bill aims to eliminate per-country visa limits, which are currently causing severe backlogs in green card. As of right now, the Immigration and Nationality Act allows for only 140,000 employment-based visas to be allocated each year.  At present, the percentage of visas that can be allocated to any one country is capped  at  7% percent of all of the employment-based visas available.

Under the Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, the per-country limit on employment-based visas would be eliminated by 2015 after a 3 year phase-in period (FY 2012, FY 2013 and FY 2014).  During the 3 year transition, the vast majority of Employment Based visas would be allocated on first-in-first out basis in order to eliminate the current backlogs.

As pointed by one of our reader, an amendment presented by Rep Lofgren to this bill was approved by the committee. As per the amendment, final rules as followed will  beapplied to EB2 and EB3 category only. No change in rule is expected for EB1, EB4 and EB5.

In FY 2012, backlogged pending cases irrespective of country with earlier priority date would receive unreserved visas - 85% of the visa allocation within a category with respect to . In FY 2013 and FY 2014  they would receive 90% of the visa allocations within a category. There is a limit of 25% for reserved visas and 85 % for unreserved visas that could be made available for a single country under this bill. Reserved visas will be only available until FY 2014 (and in general will be used by ROW-M-P based on current backlog). After FY 2014, all visas (there will be no reserved or unreserved visas) within a category will be used strictly for backlog reduction solely based on first-in-first out (FIFO) regardless of country of birth. Please note that there is no change in spillover rules, unused visas will be allocated regardless of country  strictly based on priority date from one category to other category during later quarter in a fiscal year.

Regardless of these updates estimation do not change, as at no point any country for first three phase in period will use more than 85% of the limit.

Estimation of cut-off dates movement each year if HR 3012 becomes a law

We have summarized the estimation of cut-off date movements for EB category if HR 3012 will become a law effective 30 September 2011. In general, EB2 category will be backlogged for 3-4 years whereas EB3 category will be backlogged for 8-9 years. During estimation of such cut-off dates, it was assumed that EB2 category will not receive more than 15000 spillovers or unused visa. 15000 seems like far optimized estimation after considering that with this new bill, EB2 backlogged countries would receive spillover from EB1, EB4 and EB5 (not EB2-ROW as allocation are very less). With time and current backlog, we expect EB5 at best would yield 5000 and EB1 only 10,000.

It is also assumed that EB2 category will not be current for quite some time as  EB2-ROW will be backlogged until 2015 and new EB2-IC demand will always be replenishing inventory. That said, EB3 will not receive any spillover anytime soon. This is an assumption and reality may be different. EB1 category is always assumed current for sake of simplicity in calculations.

 

Generally Reserved  will be used by ROW-M-P; Unreserved will be used by I-C for initial years

PERM Approvals & Processing Time : Q3 FY 2011

Here is a break down of PERM data (certified and certified_expired only) that was processed each month for FY 2011 Q3. Data has been broken down among different PDs that were approved per month in Q3 FY 2011. As of now it looks like lot of audit cases until December 2010 are approved. Total 16,886 PERMs were approved in Q3 - FY 2011.

Click Image to Enlarge

In addition, please see distribution of PERM approvals segregated based on country of chargeability and category. Most of the PERMs filed in FY 2011- Q3 belonged to India and ROW. It is becoming apparent that with passing time, most of the individuals are filing their cases in EB2 category. 

PERM processing time as of 22 August 2011 is at May 2011 for new cases. Analysis of Q3 PERM approvals shows that last approved case in FY 2011 was with PD 3rd May 2011.  

 

EB3 ROW, Mexico & Philippines - FY 2012 Movement Estimation

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until 15th November 2006, will be 34,674. Based on annual allocation for EB3-ROW-M-P, visa number available will be 29,128 +2803 + 2803 = 34,734. Please see table below for detailed calculation. EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to reach 15-November-2006 for FY 2012 based on currently available data. This projection will be updated as cut-off dates will progress in FY 2012.

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW will only use 24,733 visas; EB3-M will use 3,024 visas and EB3-P will end up using 6,917 visa numbers. I-485 demand (or AOS or visible demand) from the inventory that is expected to clear in FY 2012 is 21507, 2326 and 5321 respectively for ROW, Mexico and Philippines in EB3 category.

Last Updated - 22 August 2011

* - Please note that for FY 2011, there was change in demand from inventory to inventory, every quarter. From October 2010 to September 2011, at least 7194 demand for previous already current PDs were added all together. These numbers accounted for at least 50% of increase in demand from inventory to inventory. If this is again observed for FY 2012, cut-off date is expected to reach only until PD July 2006 for EB3-ROW-M-P. We are hoping since most of the cases from LO are now returned to National Service Centers this is less unlikely, but we will need to keep a close eye at difference in demand that  may  evolve from inventory to inventory,