Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Showing posts with label I-140 Statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label I-140 Statistics. Show all posts

Saturday, December 31, 2011

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

Posted On Saturday, December 31, 2011 by Rav 32 comments

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document (thank you to our reader who pointed to this release) - http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf.

Some of the important relevant information can be found on Page 6 of the document which has plots for I-140 EB1 and EB-2 adjudications, including receipts and approvals for the Texas (TSC) and Nebraska (NSC) Service Centers. Report suggests that USCIS has experienced a slight downturn in EB-1 and EB-2 filings over the past five years for both EB-1 and EB-2 (note report does not include National Interest Waiver petitions), with approval and denial rates remaining consistent.

Key point to note here are - 
  • EB1-A and EB1-B has high rate of denial rate, around 40% to 60% respectively. 
  • EB2 I-140 approval rate is close to 100%
  • Respective I-140 filings for each fiscal year 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.
  • EB1 majority demand comes from EB1-C and not from EB1-A and EB1-B. Those filings do not look enormous.
Based on I-140 receipt data  and 100% approval rate for EB2 petition, we tried to deduce some I-140 demand for PD 2008, 2009 and 2010.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand based on released data

First of all we started after taking into account the PERMs that were approved for the FY 2008, FY 2009 and FY 2010.

Table I

We know from past analysis that usual break down of PERMs are 65%-35% for EB2-EB3 for India and China, and 50% for EB2-ROW-M-P.  Based on this assumption and 100% approval rate, total I-140 demand for PERMs filed each fiscal year as follow.

Table II
 If we now compare this data with recently released DHS document -http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf. ; then I-140 Receipt numbers come very close to that suggested in above table. Approvals per released DHS document is as follow:


Table III
Reason for difference in two numbers can be accounted based on
  • First of all data is based on PERM approvals and some of demand from past fiscal year will roll-over into current fiscal year I-140 demand due to time lag between approval of PERM and filing of I-140s
  • Our assumption of 65% and 50% is flat and there may be a difference month to month.
  • Please note NIW applicants do not have to file PERM and hence that difference in negated here. 
In addition to above numbers we should remember that lot of PERM cases that were filed with PD 2008 and PD 2009 were audited  and were later approved in FY 2011. Few cases were approved in FY 2010 but we will neglect it for time being. If we will look at the EB2-IC and EB2-ROW-M-P breakup for FY 2011, we can see demand from PD 2008 and PD 2009 that will come from approvals in FY 2011.

This data comes from these articles
a) FY 2011 Q1-Q2 PERM data
b) FY 2011 Q3 PERM Approvals
c) FY 2011 Q4 PERM Approvals


Table IV
 Please note that from above table it is difficult to deduce EB2 I-140 Receipts of 39000 reported in DHS document. Our estimation only shows 21,034 receipts. This is still a mystery to us.

EB2-India & China demand based on Priority Date
To calculate this for now we can neglect the difference that we see in DHS I-140 Receipts data (Table II)  and I-140 demand data from PERM approvals (Table III), then we can roughly estimate total EB2-IC I-140 demand for each fiscal year just by using Table II. In order to capture FY 2011 approvals for old priority dates, we will add EB2-IC demand for each fiscal year to respective approvals in FY 2011. Based on above calculations, estimate for EB2-IC I-140 demand is  (in red)


Table V

Some key points to note
  •  I-140 Receipt demand will always lag PERM Approval times.
  • Difference between 29000 - 27588 = 1412 from Table II and Table III can account for some demand before October 2007.
  • It is assumed that most of the cases for certain priority date is approved in same fiscal year, so total demand upto end of FY 2010 will be same but real numbers for each  PD may be off depending upon PERM approval time within that fiscal year.
  • These calculations do not consider any abandon cases due to individuals leaving country, getting lay-offed or re-filing due to long audit processing time, multiple PERM factors or double filings within a family. You can assume anything from 65%-85% for this as a multiple PERM factor.
  • This data does not consider any EB3-EB2 portings.
  • You can multiply this demand by 2.0 to 2.25 based on dependent factor to get estimate of I-485 demand.


 EB2-India & China I-485 demand based on Priority Date

 To above numbers you can add 8000 visa numbers that was approved for this fiscal year. Also add demand from August 2007-September 2007 plus 4000-5000 PWMBs overall and then based on your estimation of spillover calculate cut-off date on retrogression.


My take will be the option Multiple PERM factor of 75%.
EB2-IC demand , August-September 2007 from PERM data = 4,000
All PWMBs =                                                                             4,500
EB2-IC Approvals for backlogged cases =                                8,000
Demand until Sep 2008 =                                                         25,233
__________________________________________________________
Total I-485 Demand upto September 2008 =                           41,733 

Spillover + annual limit expected at most can be around   28,000

Cut-off Dates for this year can hover around March-June 2008 after retrogression for the best scenario.


Monday, February 28, 2011

USCIS released I-140 Statistics for EB1 (EB1-A and EB1-B) Category

Posted On Monday, February 28, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

USCIS yesterday released Approval and Denial Statistics for I-140 for EB1 Category for fiscal years 2005 to 2010. USCIS release specifically points that released statistical data for I-140 is for E-11 and E-12 category. As per DHS, definition for E11 and E12 is "Aliens with extraordinary ability, new arrivals (E11)" and "Outstanding professors or researchers, new arrivals (E12)". New arrivals are usually individuals who has applied from outside the US or CP cases (physically residing outside US), whereas Adjustments are individuals who are currently present in the US in a non-immigrant category adjusting to a immigrant status to receive permanent residence. Since E11 and E12 includes data released for new arrivals it should not include AOS numbers. But this does not look right when you compare USCIS released data and DHS released data on FY 2009 I-485 Visa Number Use as per Class of Admissions. We can see that the numbers are very close when recent released data is viewed in terms of AOS + new arrival. As far as I think, USCIS data does include AOS applicants as well. as new arrivals Please note that I-140 data would only include primary applicants i.e. E11, E16, E12 and E17

DHS Vocabulary on Class of Admissions
Aliens with extraordinary ability, new arrivals (E11)
Aliens with extraordinary ability, adjustments (E16)
Outstanding professors or researchers, new arrivals (E12)
Outstanding professors or researchers, adjustments (E17)
Multinational executives or managers, new arrivals (E13)
Multinational executives or managers, adjustments (E18)

Fiscal Year 2009 Data

Type and class of admission --------------------------Total----AOS-- New Arrivals

Aliens with extraordinary ability, new arrivals (E11)---------308 -----NA------- 308

Aliens with extraordinary ability, adjustments (E16) --------3,134- - 3,134 ------NA

Outstanding professors or researchers, new arrivals (E12) ---20------NA------- 20

Outstanding professors or researchers, adjustments (E17)-- 3,412--- 3,412------NA

Multinational executives or managers, new arrivals (E13)---- 214 ----NA------ 214

Multinational executives or managers, adjustments (E18) ---9,718 ---9,718-----NA

FY 2009 I-485 Visa Number Use as per Class of Admissions


Approval and Denial Statistics for I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Workers