November 2011 Visa Bulletin for the FY 2012 was released on Wednesday, October 5th, 2011. November visa bulletin brought 3.5 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories. as hoped in our last prediction DOS at this point is still in-taking new demand for FY 2012 as cut-off dates for EB2-IC has now crossed the latest and favorable PD of July 2007 that was ever current. EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P still not seeing enough reduction in demand data month-to-month. Family Based category saw some movement.Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
- EB-1 remains current across the board.
- EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines. EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by three and a half (3.5) months to November 1, 2007.
- EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only two (2) weeks to December 22, 2005, EB-3 China moves forward by two (2) weeks to August 22, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by only one (1) week to July 22, 2002.
- The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by two (2) months for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to November 15, 2005. It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to June 15, 2002.
Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:- FB1 moves forward (again, for second month). FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to July 22, 2004. FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 1, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to February 8, 1997.
- FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to February 15, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to December 1, 2008.
- FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to August 1, 2003. FB2B Mexico remains unchanged at November 22, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by ten (10) weeks to July 15, 2001.
VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
No Notes
EB Categories
CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007. This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices. While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.
Demand Data used for November 2011 Visa Bulletin Movement
EB2-India & China Movement
Demand Data for EB2-IC reduced by 5400 compared to last month to account for movement upto July 15th 2007 in October Visa Bulletin. This reduction in demand allowed DOS to move dates to 01 Nov 2007 for the current bulletin. We expect that total movement for this month could bring in 13,976 (inclusive 2,675 from demand data) demand. So far for last two months, USCIS would eventually see demand around 5400+13976 = 19,376 once these applications would convert into documentary qualified applications. Out of these, 8,000 is known demand upto July 2007. As we all know, DOS will not be able to sustain this ready-to-use demand for long time unless it will retrogress dates next visa bulletin or eventually start using quarterly spillover.
I have a very strong feeling that DOS really want to use quarterly spillover, and hence we are not seeing many EB2-IC approvals from TSC yet. So far, NSC is in par with the EB1 and EB2-ROW demand but TSC still have some catching up to do in this regard. Once EB2-ROW and EB1 demand is satisfied, apparently it will be easy for USCIS/DOS to rationalize use of left over quarterly visas as spillover. Mr. Oppenheim clearly mentioned in the visa bulletin that some more significant movement in expected during this fiscal year before he will decide to pull the plug. Total visa demand for EB2-IC that he may have in mind can be any where from 25000-30000 including annual visa quota. We already know 19,376 is already taken care of and atleast 5600 - 10,600 more intake is expected for this year at some point. In terms of cut-off dates this means, we can see January 2008 - April 2008 current anytime.
It is difficult to guess when such movement will happen but atleast 3-6 months total movement in one or two steps is expected. Such movement for December or January visa bulletin cannot be discarded at this time although current bulletin clearly mentioned such movement should not be expected as a norm on monthly basis. Eventually when dates will retrogress, it is expected to reach June 2007 PD in worst case. We still believe for current fiscal year November 2007 will receive green card and December 2007-January 2008 will be on the edge. Individuals with PD from Jan- June 2008 can expect EAD, with June 2008 having slim chance and March 2008 best .
Calculations for 19,376 demand
I have a very strong feeling that DOS really want to use quarterly spillover, and hence we are not seeing many EB2-IC approvals from TSC yet. So far, NSC is in par with the EB1 and EB2-ROW demand but TSC still have some catching up to do in this regard. Once EB2-ROW and EB1 demand is satisfied, apparently it will be easy for USCIS/DOS to rationalize use of left over quarterly visas as spillover. Mr. Oppenheim clearly mentioned in the visa bulletin that some more significant movement in expected during this fiscal year before he will decide to pull the plug. Total visa demand for EB2-IC that he may have in mind can be any where from 25000-30000 including annual visa quota. We already know 19,376 is already taken care of and atleast 5600 - 10,600 more intake is expected for this year at some point. In terms of cut-off dates this means, we can see January 2008 - April 2008 current anytime.
It is difficult to guess when such movement will happen but atleast 3-6 months total movement in one or two steps is expected. Such movement for December or January visa bulletin cannot be discarded at this time although current bulletin clearly mentioned such movement should not be expected as a norm on monthly basis. Eventually when dates will retrogress, it is expected to reach June 2007 PD in worst case. We still believe for current fiscal year November 2007 will receive green card and December 2007-January 2008 will be on the edge. Individuals with PD from Jan- June 2008 can expect EAD, with June 2008 having slim chance and March 2008 best .
Calculations for 19,376 demand
- EB2-IC PERMs from August 2007 - October 2007 = 4651
- That will convert into I-140s (78%) - 4651 * 0.78 = 3627
- Total I-485 filed - 3627 * 2.25 (Dependent factor) = 8161
- People who missed boat in 2007 from PD 15 April 2007 = 2865
- Carry over PWMB from FY 2011 that will be "doc qual" = 350
- Visible Demand from PD 15 April 2007 - July 2007 = 8000
- Porting not considered so far.
- Adding total demand in BLUE = 8161+2865+350+8000 = 19,376
Projection for EB3 Category
Projections for EB3 ROW-M-P will be handled separately in different updated article. Increase in demand for EB3-P will affect overall movement for aforementioned categories. As of now July 2006 PD looks like best case for this FY 2012. Demand for three categories only reduced by 1475 compared to last month when 2200 visas numbers out of 2933 is expected at minimum. More updated analysis is required. EB3-India and China are moving as expected.
My Priority Date is May 2008(EB2). I'm hoping it will move till Jun'2008.
Great work. Can you elloborate how you got the 13976 demand will come from this move?
BY this you mean that in FY 2012 EB3 Row will move till july 2006?!!!!
My PD (EB2I) is April 02 2008 and my H1B extension expires on Jun 05 2012. Do you think I'll get an EAD before my company files my extension application (typically they would do it no later than April 04 2012)?
Thanks for your efforts in helping us.
My Priority date is Sept24 2007 EB2 India.
Any Ideas what will be the probably timeline to receive my EAD & GC
if I file my I-485 by first week of november?
Thanks!
GC 6-8 months.
Hi CM...thanks for the clarification ! I discovered this website a few months back and have been enthusiastically reading all your articles ! The analysis is very thorough and based on sound assumptions. Keep up the good work !
Thanks on putting much effort on this blog, I am an avid fan of yours. Right now Eb3 P-M-Row is in limbo. I feel a bit sad about it, especially if it reach only up to july 2006 this FY. So, does this mean that for Eb3 it will move only 2 weeks every month?
I am patiently waiting for my Pd to be current-- feb. 2006., do I need to wait another 3-4 months from now?
thanks!
My PD is current per October 2011 bulletin. I am from India and under EB2 category. How long does it take to get Green Card if I-485 was filed concurrently during July 2007 fiasco with I-140 approved in 2009. Your thoughts are highly appreciated. Looking forward to hear from you.
Best Regards
PBTEXAS
hoping to hear from you...keep up the goodwork CM!!!
First great thanks for your excellent work. My PD is Aug 2 2007 and I am current now and I will be filing by Nov 1st. My H1B expires on Feb 2012. My question here is When I will get my EAD and GC. Do I need to file my H1 extension. Let me know your thoughts on this.
Much Thanks
Are there travel restrictions after filing for I-485. I am on H1B valid till 2013 and my PD is Feb 2008. In case my PD becomes current, can I file my I-485 and then continue to travel outside the country on my H1B or it is a must that I have to apply for Advance Parol?
Thanks,
Ram
My PD is Feb 28, 2007 EB2I . I485 filed in Aug 2011. FP done. Please let me know when I will receive my EAD. Any chance of getting GC in October?
Thanks,
Subbu
if place of birth in birthcertificate mismatches with that of passport will it be an issue? its just like in passport i have the village where i was born whereas in birthcertificate its the city in which the village is located. should i make an affidavit stating the village is in that city ? has this occured problem with anyone els? getting a new birthcertificate is just impossible in india.. your help will be appriciated.. thanks in advance
really like your blog
i have PD of Oct 2008 Eb2 I . with latest visa release. any guess when it will get to my date
thanks in advance
-
My priority date is Oct 2008 EB2 India, will you please let me know your prediction on this priority date, when can i get EAD and GC
appreciate your continuous effort
thanks
MY PD is Nov 15 2007 and i am in the process of getting ready with the Documentation. i have a concern regarding my wife EAD application. Recently Her employer applied for the H1B extension and the case is still in processing stage as it is normal processing and it will take some more time to get it approved. Currently she is working on H1B Extension receipt number.
I Noticed Allen Number or I94 Number column in I-765 application. I am not sure which one should I mention as her i94 was expired 2 weeks back and she is working based on H1B extension receipt number.
My Question was , Do we really need to have her H1B approval in order to file EAD ? My Wife is not primary application.
Can someone please shed some light on it?
CM - please post a blog on this topic.
http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-h3012/show
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h112-3012
My Priority date is 1st Aug2007, would you be able to please tell me when will i get my EAD and GC if i apply for my I-485 on Nov 1st.
Thanks
Thank you very much - great analysis. One quick question. I will be sending my I-485 application next month (EB2-I) and the checklist from attorney includes form I-864 to sponsor my wife. Is it really needed? I have never heard of this form before. Can you or others who have already sent their 485 let me know if this form is required?
Thanks
Krishna
EAD is usually received around 60-90 days from filing.
My PD is July 26, 2007 EB2-C and my I-485 was filed concurrently in July, 2007. My PD will be curernt in November. When will I get my GC in your opinion? Will I get it soon after November by taking advantage of the quaterly spillover, or I'll have wait till June or July next year?
My H1b expires by June 2012, what is the best time to think about filing extension?
Is there any chance for EB3ROW on jun till sep 2012 to get more visa ?like mexico in 2011?
My PD for Nov 20th 2007 EB2. Can you please tell me the chances in next bulletin?
Where did you get this # from?
Please re-post it under your name as more people will read and act on it if YOU post it.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum85-action-items-for-everyone/2484855-h-r-3012-urgent-action-items-letters-phone-calls-and-fundraising.html
thanks
OMGC
I am not sure from how long you are following our blog but the approach to come up with these numbers were posted in past in few articles and comments. Here are some of the comments and discussion that outlines them for your reference. I have this data used for our green card calculator assuming 2.25 dependent factor. If you will follow the exercise outlined below you will get this data. We had use this same exercise to come up with number of folks who missed the boat in July 2007 for EB2 and EB3 category.
“Some of the assumptions were made when analyzing the PERM data. To segregate petitions from EB2 and EB3 from the whole lot, "PWD Minimum Wage" was used. Any petition with minimum wage less than $60000 was assumed EB3 and rest were assumed EB2. Please note minimum wage required for the job is different than offered wage. Priority date was assumed as same as Receipt date. For many cases this may differ by 2-3 days. “
"You are right that minimum wages depends on job requirement and may differ from state to state but there is no simple way to separate the data. This was one of our assumptions. Though there is some error to this assumption, but this should give us rough idea about fair distribution and we thought would be a good starting point. State to State error may differ assuming in few states individual with $55000 will also qualify for EB2 category while in others even $70,000 may not. Other example is wages offered at universities and higher education institutes are lower but job requirements still qualify you to EB2 category. All these errors in our assumptions for considering EB3s with higher minimum salary into our EB2 criteria and not considering EB2s from higher education institutes due to lower salary will offset each other. I think in my experience this is the closest assumption I can make to segregate this data. Completing this analysis gives you ratio of EB2:EB3 for India around 70:30 which chimes well with trend in trackitt for PDs after July 2007 “
Applicants of EBs are evaluated based on their skills, educations and qualifications (based on what they put in the application) and they have categorized that too to insure those people with better qualifications (and also $$$) can immigrate faster than the next person. These can be treated as a form of discrimination but US has to have control and that is a sad fact. All prospective EB immigrants of ALL countries who are already here contribute to the US, otherwise what for they are here unless they come here to be beggars.
The per country cap was there for a long time and immigrants came here knowing that there is that existing law. To change that in the middle of the game is what will make it unfair. Those countries that has a big volume of applicant know what they are getting into (the long queue) while the other countries, seeing that there is a small or no queue at all, gave them this incentive to immigrate to US and pursue the green dream. It is not the immigrant's fault that the US accepted so many applicants to file I-140 without imposing the per country cap at that stage itself. If they did that then maybe we will not have this discussion.
I dont think that capturing the unused visas of the past will make any effect in the present economic condition. They can use those visa to gice GC to the EBs who are already here who have families with them or waiting to join them which should be given priority. We are not asking for additional visas which I am sure most Americans (and lawmakers) does not support. The lawmakers who will support the recapture will just have to put extra effort to convince the house and senate that capturing the lost visas does not take away jobs from the Americans since they are already in the US working and paying taxes. That they are proposing this bill to relieve some of the immigration problem and to give incentives to those bright, talented and gifted immigrants to come in the US or for those already in the US not to leave.
Diversity visa is not only for EB but for everyone and it was put into place to give people from the non-oversubscribed countries more chance to immigrate. That is the reason oversubscibed countries are not allowed to participate.
To answer your last question about equality, check the meaning of "Diversity".
And as what the State Department described why there is a PER-COUNTRY CEILING and I quote " the per-country level “is not an entitlement but a barrier against monopolization.”
I read this on Immi Voice http://immigrationvoice.org/media/HR3012_Bill_Summary.pdf
The transition rules state this,
During FY 2012, 15% of annual allotment of 140,000 green cards will be reserved for countries other than countries with top two countries that are most severely backlog. Remaining 85% will
be purely first-come-first-served based on priority date
Does that mean Indian and China will be allocated 119,000 green cards for this FY (if the bill passes through)?
How would this affect the backlog and the dates?
Please Clarify.
My pd is 7/27/2007 EB2 India and I've already filed I485 in Aug 2007. Can you please let me know when I can expect green card?
http://www.facebook.com/pages/HR-3012/249011055149262
My PD is current in Nov bulletin. I am including my spouse as well in my I485. How many years of Tax Returns and w-2s are required? Is two enough or should I submit 3 yrs?
Your response is highly appreciated.
Thanks,
Rahul
What does LO mean? If my PD is April 2007 EB3 ROW what would be the expected wait time?
I have read some comments about a new Bill, if it passes would it help me? when will we know about it?
thanks
However when the Sept bulletin came out which moved to Jul 15, 2007 nobody discussed the possibility that the speculation might have been true and the date was adjusted to include those 19000 unused visa numbers in the last FY.
Is there a way to validate this thought and redo some of the calculations so that we can safely assume that all the Jul 2007 guys were cleared in last year quota?
So far has this assumption worked out fine? How close have you been with this assumption?
Also, can you post the number of approved perms month over month from Oct 2007 - July 2010 based on this calulation.
485 performance data released by USCIS
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I-485-performancedata-2011-aug.pdf
Can we use this for future date movement estimations.
Cheers,
- CM
"Projections for EB3 ROW-M-P will be handled separately in different updated article. "
The test says, "at a minimum ROW will receive 21000".
Year------EB 1------EB 2------EB 3------EB 4------Total
2008----- 2548-----3036------951-------586------ 7121
2009------1842-----2832------966 -------663------6303
2010------3661-----6584------2232------2173-----14650
Total------8051-----12452-----4149----- 3422-----28074
--------------------------------------------------------------
Those who were ignoring EB4 category Just Look at the data it is mind blowing 3 times more filling and approval.
I think some kind of Scam must be going in that category (Only my view Point)
The above data is from US Govt website and it does not include any dependent.
Thanks for all the analysis that you have been providing. Great work !
I have a question regarding the dependents who filed in Jun/Jul/Aug 2011. Most of their spouses (Primary applicants) already received GC. However, with Oct 2011 visa bulletin move, the derivatives' applications are now behind those preadjudicated applications from 2007. What is your estimate for GC approval dates for the derivatives who filed in Jun/Jul/Aug 2011 ?
Thanks
I agree that when one apply for a job in the US, they will hire based on the applicant’s Q and E and not from the country of origin. But that is true for H1B since that is a non-immigrant work visa. But once one apply for LPR, that will totally change the game since there is now an intent to immigrate permanently and so US has to screen applicants based on country of chargeability. As early as 2001, INA has put that law to prevent one or a few country dominating the immigration to US. If you will be kind enough to visit the Dept. of State website, they have this CRS report discussing the Per-Country Ceiling http://fpc.state.gov/c18185.htm . The July 1, 2005 CRS report mentioned and I quote from page CRS-4 “As the State Department describes, the per-country level “is not an entitlement but a barrier against monopolization.” Please note that it is not a “Quota” as mentioned also in that report.
And may I ask who are you to say that the cap or ceiling is wrong? India or China is not US and US know what they are doing to protect US and its diverse immigrant community. US are not dumb to just put that law without thinking what it is for.
With regards to “Diversity” please refer to my comment on my post above regarding diversity. Not all are entitled to participate and US have placed that system for a reason.
No one has a free ride in this immigration process. All applicants know very well (esp. those claiming to be superior from others) what they are getting into. Everyone who applied knows very well that there is a per-country cap/ceiling when they applied and I have already explained that in my earlier post.
The per-country cap may be outdated due to the present volume of retrogressed countries but not during the time they put that into law. IV has been pushing to change that for some time now as seen from the 2010 CRS report dated Dec 20 page 19 but supporters of the cap/ceiling claim and I quote “Proponents of per-country ceilings maintain that the statutory ceilings restrain the dominance of
high-demand countries and preserve the diversity of the immigrant flows”.
If US think that EB2 and EB3 immigrants from India and China are really that very important, they may pass that bill into law. If that happens, these two country’s EB applicants will celebrate while the rest of the world including M and P will congratulate them with a broken heart.
I am sure there are other better ways to resolve the long wait of EB2 and 3 from I and C and not this shortcut of a solution at the expense of EB3 R M and P. EXCLAMATION POINT
my PD is Nov 21 2007. if you were a betting man, for which bulletin in the next few months would you place your odds on to have Nov 21 PD current?
First of all i would like to thank you very much for the great work that you are doing to help so many people who are in this never ending boat of immigration issues. May god bless you and your family in every step of your life.
How is your vacation going on sin city? when can we expect your predictions on the December 2011 VB predictions? Also any message from your lawyer friend on dates moving forward for EB2-I. Will the mid of December 2007 date be current in the December 2011 bulletin? Please advise. When are you expecting the December 2011 VB. Thanks again for your analysis.
Do you think there is a chance for the quarterly spillover which has never happened ? If it does , then we can expect dates not to move forward for a long time .
I hope you are not looking at data from USCIS website which only outlines only field office applications.
Just a thought: What are the chances that the reduction in visible demand for EB2 IC used for Nov bulletin is because of the spillover from the previous FY (and not from the annual quota itself for FY2012 for these countries)?
The reason I was wondering this could be the case is 'coz the demand data used for Nov bulletin is as of Oct 4th (which is quite early in FY 2012) - which logically implies that the reduction came off from 2011 numbers. Is it the specific 5400 reduction that's implying that it has come off the 2012 quota?
Thanks!
Any help is appreciated. Please let me know.
Thank you for your time
Buy House, Get a Visa
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203752604576641421449460968.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsThird#articleTabs%3Darticle
Need your guidance and expert advice on this. I am EB3 and been scheduled for consular interview (along with my husband and children) end of next month. My problem is, my daughter, 20 y/o, (unmarried) will give birth most probably by first week next month. Can we bring her newborn child to US to migrate? I understand that it is possible to bring a child if he/she was born after a consular interview but our case is different in which the child was born before our consular interview. Please enlighten us.
many thanks always,
iaben
:) :)
Thanks CM- As you summarized March 2008 really have good chance. CO finally heard us.