November 2011 Visa Bulletin for the FY 2012 was released on Wednesday, October 5th, 2011. November visa bulletin brought 3.5 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories. as hoped in our last prediction DOS at this point is still in-taking new demand for FY 2012 as cut-off dates for EB2-IC has now crossed the latest and favorable PD of July 2007 that was ever current. EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P still not seeing enough reduction in demand data month-to-month. Family Based category saw some movement.Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
- EB-1 remains current across the board.
- EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines. EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by three and a half (3.5) months to November 1, 2007.
- EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only two (2) weeks to December 22, 2005, EB-3 China moves forward by two (2) weeks to August 22, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by only one (1) week to July 22, 2002.
- The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by two (2) months for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to November 15, 2005. It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to June 15, 2002.
Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:- FB1 moves forward (again, for second month). FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to July 22, 2004. FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 1, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to February 8, 1997.
- FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to February 15, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to December 1, 2008.
- FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to August 1, 2003. FB2B Mexico remains unchanged at November 22, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by ten (10) weeks to July 15, 2001.
VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
No Notes
EB Categories
CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007. This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices. While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.
Demand Data used for November 2011 Visa Bulletin Movement
EB2-India & China Movement
Demand Data for EB2-IC reduced by 5400 compared to last month to account for movement upto July 15th 2007 in October Visa Bulletin. This reduction in demand allowed DOS to move dates to 01 Nov 2007 for the current bulletin. We expect that total movement for this month could bring in 13,976 (inclusive 2,675 from demand data) demand. So far for last two months, USCIS would eventually see demand around 5400+13976 = 19,376 once these applications would convert into documentary qualified applications. Out of these, 8,000 is known demand upto July 2007. As we all know, DOS will not be able to sustain this ready-to-use demand for long time unless it will retrogress dates next visa bulletin or eventually start using quarterly spillover.
I have a very strong feeling that DOS really want to use quarterly spillover, and hence we are not seeing many EB2-IC approvals from TSC yet. So far, NSC is in par with the EB1 and EB2-ROW demand but TSC still have some catching up to do in this regard. Once EB2-ROW and EB1 demand is satisfied, apparently it will be easy for USCIS/DOS to rationalize use of left over quarterly visas as spillover. Mr. Oppenheim clearly mentioned in the visa bulletin that some more significant movement in expected during this fiscal year before he will decide to pull the plug. Total visa demand for EB2-IC that he may have in mind can be any where from 25000-30000 including annual visa quota. We already know 19,376 is already taken care of and atleast 5600 - 10,600 more intake is expected for this year at some point. In terms of cut-off dates this means, we can see January 2008 - April 2008 current anytime.
It is difficult to guess when such movement will happen but atleast 3-6 months total movement in one or two steps is expected. Such movement for December or January visa bulletin cannot be discarded at this time although current bulletin clearly mentioned such movement should not be expected as a norm on monthly basis. Eventually when dates will retrogress, it is expected to reach June 2007 PD in worst case. We still believe for current fiscal year November 2007 will receive green card and December 2007-January 2008 will be on the edge. Individuals with PD from Jan- June 2008 can expect EAD, with June 2008 having slim chance and March 2008 best .
Calculations for 19,376 demand
I have a very strong feeling that DOS really want to use quarterly spillover, and hence we are not seeing many EB2-IC approvals from TSC yet. So far, NSC is in par with the EB1 and EB2-ROW demand but TSC still have some catching up to do in this regard. Once EB2-ROW and EB1 demand is satisfied, apparently it will be easy for USCIS/DOS to rationalize use of left over quarterly visas as spillover. Mr. Oppenheim clearly mentioned in the visa bulletin that some more significant movement in expected during this fiscal year before he will decide to pull the plug. Total visa demand for EB2-IC that he may have in mind can be any where from 25000-30000 including annual visa quota. We already know 19,376 is already taken care of and atleast 5600 - 10,600 more intake is expected for this year at some point. In terms of cut-off dates this means, we can see January 2008 - April 2008 current anytime.
It is difficult to guess when such movement will happen but atleast 3-6 months total movement in one or two steps is expected. Such movement for December or January visa bulletin cannot be discarded at this time although current bulletin clearly mentioned such movement should not be expected as a norm on monthly basis. Eventually when dates will retrogress, it is expected to reach June 2007 PD in worst case. We still believe for current fiscal year November 2007 will receive green card and December 2007-January 2008 will be on the edge. Individuals with PD from Jan- June 2008 can expect EAD, with June 2008 having slim chance and March 2008 best .
Calculations for 19,376 demand
- EB2-IC PERMs from August 2007 - October 2007 = 4651
- That will convert into I-140s (78%) - 4651 * 0.78 = 3627
- Total I-485 filed - 3627 * 2.25 (Dependent factor) = 8161
- People who missed boat in 2007 from PD 15 April 2007 = 2865
- Carry over PWMB from FY 2011 that will be "doc qual" = 350
- Visible Demand from PD 15 April 2007 - July 2007 = 8000
- Porting not considered so far.
- Adding total demand in BLUE = 8161+2865+350+8000 = 19,376
Projection for EB3 Category
Projections for EB3 ROW-M-P will be handled separately in different updated article. Increase in demand for EB3-P will affect overall movement for aforementioned categories. As of now July 2006 PD looks like best case for this FY 2012. Demand for three categories only reduced by 1475 compared to last month when 2200 visas numbers out of 2933 is expected at minimum. More updated analysis is required. EB3-India and China are moving as expected.
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