Sunday, May 22, 2011

July 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category


Sunday, May 22, 2011 | , , , , , , ,

Here is the prediction for July 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations and as long as EB2-India and China will continue to receive spillover as per INA Section 202(a)(5).


Predictions

  • EB3- China could advance to 15 June 2004

  • EB3-Philippines could advance to 01 October 2005.

  • EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 March 2005.

  • EB3-ROW could advance to 01 October 2005. (Reason for update)
  • EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.

  • EB3-India could advance to 01 May 2002.
  • EB2-India and EB2-China could see movement atleast 01JAN07



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142 comments:

Anonymous said...

I have been constantly following your prediction for the upcoming visa bulletin. My priority date falls on Sept 26,20005. I hope your prediction would make current in the next bulletin.. I'll keep on praying. More power and God bless us all in the waiting line...

Anonymous said...

Thanks CM for posting the July visa predictions...
Could you please detail out the min and max spillover category wise...Thanks so much...PK

Anonymous said...

Hi,

That is great and thank you for the updated analysis.

Looks like I will be borderline with my late June 2007 EB2-I PD (will need 1JULY 2007 to be current per DOS guidelines). I am one of those PWMB souls!!

Assuming that my PD will not become current in FY2011, I would like to know what are your thoughts on my PD becoming current in FY2012 (hopefully) - will this likely to be in the 1st quarter FY2012 or something like what happened this year - around middle of the year or later.

Appreciate your response and all the good work.

Thank you
TR

Anonymous said...

I have never seen your predection correct (sorry to say). For Jun predection you mentioned it will move from 2 weeks to max 6 weeks, but it moved to 3 months for EB2-I. I am assuming this predection will be baseless, dates will move to 22-Jan-2007.

Anonymous said...

and why there is no movement for FB2/ROW its the same since 6 months its the time to mooooooooooove :(

Anonymous said...

hi cm
do u have any new predection for pd feb 15 2006 row after this delay
thanx

Sri raghavi said...

@Anonymous

Thats fine . we will atleast know we will have some movement.

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous I have seen CM predicting correct or close dates for past visa bulletins for many categories. EB2I has lot of variables to predict it correctly. What is your basis for 22January 2007 cut-off date for EB2I?

Anonymous said...

what about the regular 2000 something quota for per country limit for 2012, is that added in this or will it be utilized for Oct Visa bulliten?

Anonymous said...

Hi CM, kwwp up the good work. When can we use the new GC Calc on this site, Thanks

Anonymous said...

hi cm!,
thanks for the update =)

hannahlu =)

Anonymous said...

Thanks CM for the post...Can you also share your thougths about post jul 2007 PD's

Visa Bulletins said...

Very interesting predictions. Will check back in 3 weeks.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,
Any chance EB3 Phils with a PD of Nov 2007 becoming current in two years? I'm planning to give it up after I reach a certain age as my family will need to settle permanently soon, can no longer risk starting from square 1. If I do give it up, will I still be able to avail a visa if I want to go there for a holiday?....PB - UK

CM said...

Dear friends, one of our acquaintances and his attorney with late PD October 2007 under EB2-India has received mail from NVC on submitting fees. As we mentioned in one of our article, in general NVC would send such notices to the beneficiary atleast 8-9 month before when they think their PD will be current so that beneficiary can be documnetarily qualified when dates will become current. This is postive news that atleast NVC is thinking that EB2-India with PD Oct 2007 has potential to become current in 8-9 months.If this is true chances are that we can reach 01 June 2007 by FY 2011.

Please note that NVC sending mail is solely based on the assumption that projected demand would reap in 8-9 months. It does not guarantee that projected demand will be representative of actual demand.

Anonymous said...

Hey, CM,

Thanks for all your work and this great information. People need to undertand no one can be 100% correct. With your data analyze and support, your preidction is already good enough. Keep good work!

Jen
Review Infobase

Anonymous said...

CM, how can someone with PD OCT 2007 already file I-485. I dont think it ever became current. Can you please explain?

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

I read in the other forum people with Feb 2008 got mail from NVC on submitting fees. I am not sure whats going on. Please clarify.

Thanks
Kumar

Anonymous said...

what about eb3 other workers my priority is sept 2005 phils when will it reach the current status tnx

CM said...

I am hoping you to be current next bulletin. God Bless.

Anonymous said...

I have been constantly following your prediction for the upcoming visa bulletin. My priority date falls on Sept 26,20005. I hope your prediction would make current in the next bulletin.. I'll keep on praying. More power and God bless us all in the waiting line...

CM said...

@PK Please see our article for breakdown on Minimum and Maximum, EB2-China & India FY 2011 Movement Based on June Visa Bulletin.

Spillover available for the remaining fiscal year
Minimum = EB2-ROW (lower bound) + EB5(lower bound) +EB1 (lower bound) - Porting (higher bound)
= 3000 + 4000 + 4000 - 2500 = 8500

Maximum = EB2-ROW (upper bound) + EB5 (upper bound) +EB1 (upper bound) - Porting (lower bound)
= 5000 + 6000 + 6000 - 2000 = 15000

CM said...

@TR You never know how things would shake up. Getting NVC emails on Immigration Processing invoice bill for PD October 2007 is a positive sign. So if we assume that 2500 value that I assumed for porting is far outstretched, in that case late June PDs can be squeezed in. If July visa bulletin will reach January 2007 by any chance then yes we are moving towards maximum spillover anticipated.

If dates will move upto first week of June 2007 in FY 2011 then in order to get some inventory they have to move dates in first quarter of 2012. As some one posted today that folks from PD 2008 also received email from NVC suggests that DOS/USCIS/NVC are trying to build some pipeline for next year.

CM said...

It is alright not to believe predictions because they are just predictions based on our educated guess. Whole point is to tell immigrant community what to expect in next bulletin; no movement, average movement or big movement. This way no one is disheartened when cut-off date does not progress as they had anticipated every month. I am always of conservative nature and my predictions are always on lower side. No one knows what will be the fate for EB2-IC in coming months. All we can do is share our knowledge and let our readers take away what is appropriate for them.

Dates can very well move to 22 January 2007 in July visa bulletin if DOS will plan to be aggressive in July and August and then to recalibrate in September. In order for dates to move to 22 January 2007 we will need at least 8500 unused visa numbers other than those used by the upgrades. 8500 unused visa numbers for July means that we are hoping for 21k more spillover for rest of the year.I think that is too big of a stretch when EB2-ROW is not going to yield many visas. I can imagine dates moving to first week of January in July but more than that would mean division of spillover is only going to happen in July and August, and we should expect small movement in September. It is one way or the other. In reality unused visa numbers available are limited and DOS can divide it anyhow among 3 months time.

Anonymous said...

I have never seen your predection correct (sorry to say). For Jun predection you mentioned it will move from 2 weeks to max 6 weeks, but it moved to 3 months for EB2-I. I am assuming this predection will be baseless, dates will move to 22-Jan-2007.

CM said...

Somewhere around November 2011

Anonymous said...

hi cm
do u have any new predection for pd feb 15 2006 row after this delay
thanx

CM said...

Regular annual quota for 2800 for FY 2012 will be used from October 2011 visa bulletin.


Anonymous said...

what about the regular 2000 something quota for per country limit for 2012, is that added in this or will it be utilized for Oct Visa bulliten?

CM said...

Thanks, I am currently working on it. It should be up by first week of June.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM, kwwp up the good work. When can we use the new GC Calc on this site, Thanks

CM said...

@hannahlu You are welcome. Best wished to you.

CM said...

Please see response to TR.

Anonymous said...

Thanks CM for the post...Can you also share your thougths about post jul 2007 PD's

CM said...

@PB-UK We do not expect EB3-Phil Nov 2007 to be current until Sep 2014. By applying green card you have shown immigrant intent, so availing Non-immigrant visa can be difficult but not impossible.

CM said...

@Jen Thank you for your support.

CM said...

Person who received NVC email with PD Oct 2007 is for the processing fee. Once his fee is received NVC knows his intent to immigrate and it will send him Packet 3 or DS-230 form to submit all documents. Once all documents are received he will be categorized as documentarily qualified. Only documentarily qualified individuals can be counted toward demand data for each bulletin or can be called for CP interview one their dates will be current in visa bulletin.


Anonymous said...

CM, how can someone with PD OCT 2007 already file I-485. I dont think it ever became current. Can you please explain?

Anonymous said...

CM,

You said that EB3-Phil Nov 2007 wont be current until Sep 2014. Then is that the same for ROW with the same PD been that Phil and ROW always have the same PDs in the DOS bulletins?

CM said...

@Kumar This means that NVC is getting ready for FY 2012 and dates have good chance to move close to July 2007. Probably June 2007.

CM said...

I am sorry I have not worked on data analysis for EB3 - Other workers due to its complication and difficulty in guessing.

Anonymous said...

what about eb3 other workers my priority is sept 2005 phils when will it reach the current status tnx

CM said...

Actually after few more months EB3-P will not have same PD as EB3-ROW. EB3-P has large demand compared to EB3-ROW starting November 2005. Eb3-P will be more retrogressed than EB3-ROW.

Anonymous said...

CM,

You said that EB3-Phil Nov 2007 wont be current until Sep 2014. Then is that the same for ROW with the same PD been that Phil and ROW always have the same PDs in the DOS bulletins?

Anonymous said...

Thanks CM. You Rock!!

Kumar

Anonymous said...

@cm,

Thxs for the analysis on this. You never fail to impress.

Anonymous said...

Thanks very much CM for patiently answering all question...PK

Anonymous said...

what ever users say.But this is the best immigration blogs on internet.I am big fan of this site.

Jayaprathap said...

CM

Excellent analysis. I think the GC prediction calculator is your finest work. I appreciate you being conservative and providing the perspective behind the predictions.

Dub question, how do you think dates after Jul 2007 will move faster. My PC is Sep 2007 and hoping tbe current sometime in 2012

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,

thanks for the info. when dya think the eb3-P dec 2007 will be current?

thanks,
JasonRED

CM said...

Dear folks from Eb2-India and China, I am not promising you anything and would not like to give anyone false hopes but I still want everyone to please make sure their required documents for I-485 filings is upto date and ready for small window that may open (chances are very small) in next 2-3 months. I am not sure but it could be current or atleast move until late 2007 for a small time.

Most important prepare for long lead items like your birth certificate et al so that they are in place with right name and place of birth.If not then have your notarized affidavits ready from your home country.

Please note chances are very very small but if we have more than maximum spillvoer anticipated then DOS has to move dates to get unused visa numbers utilized before Sep 2011. USCIS will not be able to take the load, and load has to be shared with CPs abroad by advancing dates more than required.

Anonymous said...

ali1,
can you please stop posting this garbage here. This site is very important to some people so that they can get helpful info from CM.
Please advertise somewhere else. Thank you!

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

I am expecting my dates will be current sooner, so suddenly decided to take a close look at my documents for filing I-485.

For my husband:


The place-of-birth in my "Passport"[p-o-b:Madurai] v.s. "Birth Certificate"[p-o-b:Madras] are different!

his H1 and ALL documents are based on his passport.

For me :

The "Name" field in my "Birth Certificate" is empty!(it holds my DOB and parents name as in passport)
[They dont name the child until 30 days in India]

My H1 and ALL documents are based on my passport, Which has all the necessary information.
[My SSC,HSC, College,Work Letters have the same name]

Will this pose a problem during my 485 application? [EB2 Oct-2007,140 approved]

Is there any action that could be performed to rectify this?

Thanks in advance

Anonymous said...

Our priority date is March 23rd 2007 EB2 India. What do you think it would be current?

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,
The June 2011 Inventory have been released .. http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%2...

Could you explain what it means for someone like myself.. Eb3 Row PD Feb 15, 2006 .. Am I still Sept to Nov as per previous predictions.

Best Regards
Thun

Anonymous said...

can we have new analysis based on new june inventory please:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011.pdf

Anonymous said...

hi cm my pd is may 2007. when do you think the eb3-row will be current?

thanks raja

CM said...

For your husband -

Try to send his passport to Embassy in USA to get it updated as per B.C. This can be done as long as BC can be furnished. You may need to provide some justification for difference in birth place. Since two p.o.ob sounds similar it could be error on part of clerk.

For you -
Get two affidavits, one from your parents and one from close relative who is aware of your birth, disposing in front of notary that your name is 'Jane Doe' and they are aware of your birth place and birth date. With this provide oldest proof of your name (leaving certificate from school, baptism certificate, ration card etc).


Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

I am expecting my dates will be current sooner, so suddenly decided to take a close look at my documents for filing I-485.

For my husband:


The place-of-birth in my "Passport"[p-o-b:Madurai] v.s. "Birth Certificate"[p-o-b:Madras] are different!

his H1 and ALL documents are based on his passport.

For me :

The "Name" field in my "Birth Certificate" is empty!(it holds my DOB and parents name as in passport)
[They dont name the child until 30 days in India]

My H1 and ALL documents are based on my passport, Which has all the necessary information.
[My SSC,HSC, College,Work Letters have the same name]

Will this pose a problem during my 485 application? [EB2 Oct-2007,140 approved]

Is there any action that could be performed to rectify this?

Thanks in advance

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Nice Analysis,

My PD is June2010, though expecting them to be current is one of the bleakest possibilities but keeping in mind that the miracle can happen anytime, i was just wondering what extra or special documents we need to keep up to date for filing I-485 in such case.

I do have my PP and HighSchool Certificate as my Date of Birth Proof, is there anything else we require for that? and what else we do require please?

I am just talking that given the conditions with me i relaly do not want to miss the bus in any case, Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Yes Sorry to late state that i am under EB2-I..

Hi CM,

Nice Analysis,

My PD is June2010, though expecting them to be current is one of the bleakest possibilities but keeping in mind that the miracle can happen anytime, i was just wondering what extra or special documents we need to keep up to date for filing I-485 in such case.

I do have my PP and HighSchool Certificate as my Date of Birth Proof, is there anything else we require for that? and what else we do require please?

I am just talking that given the conditions with me i relaly do not want to miss the bus in any case, Thanks.

CM said...

@Jayaprathap Keep watching visa bulletin for next three months. You could be hit or miss for this year. Good Luck.

CM said...

@JasonRED Atleast three more years. We will update our calculator in lieu of newly released inventory.

CM said...

@Thun As per new inventory Feb 2007 will not be current until February 2011.

CM said...

@raja EB3-ROW May 2007 will take at least 1 year and 7 month more from today.

CM said...

You will need Birth Certificate issued from Government official. In case B.C. is not available you should try to get Non-Availability letter of Birth Certificate from registrar office and two affidavits, one from close relative and other from parents vouching birth date and birth place for you.


Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Nice Analysis,

My PD is June2010, though expecting them to be current is one of the bleakest possibilities but keeping in mind that the miracle can happen anytime, i was just wondering what extra or special documents we need to keep up to date for filing I-485 in such case.

I do have my PP and HighSchool Certificate as my Date of Birth Proof, is there anything else we require for that? and what else we do require please?

I am just talking that given the conditions with me i relaly do not want to miss the bus in any case, Thanks.

Anonymous said...

HI!

My PD is December 2005 EB3 PHIL, I am expecting to be current this year, my petitioner is a hospital in California but my papers was processed by an agent and now there is no way i can contact him. what shud i do?
is it possible to change my petitioner at this time? wud there be problem.

please advise.
thanks

Anonymous said...

Hi CM, This is probably some odd question for you but if my date is current how much time do I have till I can file my I-485 ? I do not want to file my I-485 coz of some personal reasons. Can I delay filing by 3-4 months ? My date is current in June 2011 and my H1B is expiring in Dec. 2011. Can I file for I-485 in Oct. 2011, considering the date doesn't retrogress.

-Rahul

Anonymous said...

@ CM what about EB2/ROW ? ( family based )

Taleen

Anonymous said...

what is the meaning of current her mean no movement ? for ROW/P-M ?!!
Taleen

Anonymous said...

This is just my point of view. DOS will be aggressive in the July bulletin. The dates might move closer to Mar 2007 and DOS will have better control on the other two months for the last quarter. My estimate would be the mid June 2007 to early July 2007 will be current in Sept bulletin.

Anonymous said...

My priority date is 15aug05 eb3 I am current since may 1st 2011. I got a letter that my case was transferred from NBC to TSC on April 20 2011. I'm really worry because I haven't heard anything from them since April 20? My lawyer just opened SR last thursday? What do you this is happening? will I be able to get my green card soon? Will the SR help me to get my green card? This green card process is killing me.


Thanks for your answers

Anonymous said...

Hi CM ,
Thanks for the great analysis & accurate predictions , my priority date is Nov 27 2006 , based on analysis looks like I'll be current in July VB . Can you please tell me how long it takes to receive the GC after being current. In my case I have approved I-140 & EAD . Also advice if any action has to be taken once I get current. Thansk for the support.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Good day!
Thanks for a very informative site and taking time to answer questions. My daughter is 18 years old this year, but my problem is i lost her immunization record card, is this still needed during US embassy interview even if she is 18 years of age? I am EB3- Phil. What will I do? any suugestions?
Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Hi CM - I do have a Birth certificate - but my name on my Birth certificate is different as of now on the passport.

What should I do?

Thanks in advance. And I love this website and appreciate your time in replying queries.

Anonymous said...

In best case scenario what is the duration of this small window that EB2I can be current. Can someone eligible for EB2 can file I140 and I485 concurrently to get EAD at least (with managing the prior PERM and Advt accordingly).

Thanks

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

My priority date is July 27, 2007 and filed my I 485 in EB2 India. Any idea when my PD becomes current?

Thank you

Anonymous said...

@ anonymous w/ different name on passport,

if your name on your passport goes the same with your other documents such as college diploma, transcripts of records,etc.,assuming you are from the Phil., it is advisable for you to change your name on your B.C. through the National Statistics Office but it will start from your municipal registrar's office.The process could take some time for it also needs some publishings of your affidavit for change of name.

Anonymous said...

@Taleen


current means anybody on that category can now file I-485 (application for GC), EB2 is not family based, it's employment based

CM said...

If you are already documentarily qualified and during interview they will not ask for current job offer letter you should be fine else it is a problem. Here I am assuming yours is a CP case.

If you are AOS and have EAD, you can use AC21 portability. Let me know more details.

Anonymous said...

HI!

My PD is December 2005 EB3 PHIL, I am expecting to be current this year, my petitioner is a hospital in California but my papers was processed by an agent and now there is no way i can contact him. what shud i do?
is it possible to change my petitioner at this time? wud there be problem.

please advise.
thanks

CM said...

@Rahul SInce you are EB2-I and your date is current in June 2011, I expect it to stay current for next 3-5 months. Rather it will never retrogress. There is no such rule to file I-485 within a time frame from being current. You can file it whenever you want.

CM said...

Some time cases do get transferred from one service center to other. Was your I-140 filed and approved at TSC? If so then this is pretty common. Do not worry. Since your lawyer has open SR, you would know the update soon. In addition try to contact your local congressmen and senator. See if they can get more information for you.

Anonymous said...

My priority date is 15aug05 eb3 I am current since may 1st 2011. I got a letter that my case was transferred from NBC to TSC on April 20 2011. I'm really worry because I haven't heard anything from them since April 20? My lawyer just opened SR last thursday? What do you this is happening? will I be able to get my green card soon? Will the SR help me to get my green card? This green card process is killing me.


Thanks for your answers

Anonymous said...

hi CM,

my PD is october 28, 2005. EB3, philippines. may i inquire if how long till my PD becomes current. thank you and Godbless.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
My PD is Sep 2007, EB-2 India. Is there any chance of getting it current in 2011 Fiscal year. If yes, what all papers should I collect

Anonymous said...

hi cm ,
my pd is january 31 2006 under eb3 philippines i want to ask again if when will be my pd becomes current? thank you so much...God Bless!!!

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

I have been a silent reader for long .. Congrats and thanks for the good work ... PD Dec 09 .. whn can i expect EAD

Anonymous said...

Hi CM ,
Thanks for the great analysis & accurate predictions , my priority date is Nov 27 2006 , based on analysis looks like I'll be current in July VB . Can you please tell me how long it takes to receive the GC after being current. In my case I have approved I-140 & EAD . Also advice if any action has to be taken once I get current. Thansk for the support.

CM said...

You should be pre-adjudicated by now. In that case a month or two. Reason being that in spillover season USCIS is usually pressed on time and approval can get little slow due to volume of applications. Once you will become current (1st July 2006), try to open a SR with USCIS.



Anonymous said...

Hi CM ,
Thanks for the great analysis & accurate predictions , my priority date is Nov 27 2006 , based on analysis looks like I'll be current in July VB . Can you please tell me how long it takes to receive the GC after being current. In my case I have approved I-140 & EAD . Also advice if any action has to be taken once I get current. Thansk for the support.

CM said...

It is required during CP interview, no matter what your age is. If you do not have records for her try to get titer done. For any titers that fails, she will need to retake those vaccines.


Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Good day!
Thanks for a very informative site and taking time to answer questions. My daughter is 18 years old this year, but my problem is i lost her immunization record card, is this still needed during US embassy interview even if she is 18 years of age? I am EB3- Phil. What will I do? any suugestions?
Thanks!

CM said...

How different is the name? If full name vs initials then get a affidavits from your parents and one close relative, vouching that your real full name is XYZ and reason for the making affidavit is your name was not spelled full in the BC at time of birth.

If it is totally different then you have to justify in the affidavit that given name in BC was nick name or you legally changed name after some time. In that case while filing I-485 make sure you write your BC name as OTHER name in the form.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM - I do have a Birth certificate - but my name on my Birth certificate is different as of now on the passport.

What should I do?

Thanks in advance. And I love this website and appreciate your time in replying queries.

CM said...

If it happens (chances are very less), it will be only for one month. As mentioned in previous posts or comments, chances are more for dates to move by year or two and then retrogress as seen with F2B previously.

Anonymous said...

In best case scenario what is the duration of this small window that EB2I can be current. Can someone eligible for EB2 can file I140 and I485 concurrently to get EAD at least (with managing the prior PERM and Advt accordingly).

Thanks

CM said...

For PD 27 July 2007, PD 01 Aug 07 has to be current. If it will happen it will happen in Sep 2011. Chances are very less. Else may be next fiscal year.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

My priority date is July 27, 2007 and filed my I 485 in EB2 India. Any idea when my PD becomes current?

Thank you

CM said...

Around August-Sep visa bulletin.

Anonymous said...

hi CM,

my PD is october 28, 2005. EB3, philippines. may i inquire if how long till my PD becomes current. thank you and Godbless.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM - I do have a Birth certificate - but my name on my Birth certificate is different as of now on the passport. I am from India. I do have same name from my 1st grade till date - all official transcripts have my name as of now. Only place it is different is on the birth certificate.

What should be the procedure?

Anonymous said...

Hi CM
Thanks for this wonderful site.
I have added my spouse as my derivative & inform nvc, I paid the visa fee bill, then they send me the checklist, but the documents I sent to nvc is all photocopies of my marriage cert. birth cert. of my husband and his passport copy. My agency told me that because it should be all original and nvc will not accept it if it is coming from principal applicant like me and it will cause a delay on my part, since I can declare my husband during CP interview.
Now I am worried if it will really cause a delay on my part and the documents I sent together with the ds230, I hope you can enlighten me on this matter. I am thinking maybe if there is a missing documents NVC will inform me and will ask for it. I really dont know, please help.I am eb3- feb 2006 pd.
Thanks and more power to you!

Anonymous said...

Hi Anonymous,
To give you an idea with your current problem and based on my personal experience (that caused delays of being not “documentarily qualified” before), it is a must that all documents you sent to NVC shall be originals (birth certificates, marriage contract etc.). You have to rush it now before it is too late.Bye.

Anonymous said...

@CM
Hi CM
My PD is apr 2008 and I have also received email from NVC regarding councilar processing?

Thanks

Anonymous said...

What is the procedure once we become current? I have approved I-140 and filled 485 in 2007. With PD sept 25 2005 ROW i'm expecting to be current in this bulletin but have no idea what's next. Do I have to fill anything or just wait for the letter? And how long it typically takes? Thank in advance.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
July Bulletin is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5489.html

with this what you predict

Thanks

KS said...

Hello CM,

July Bulletin is out!! gr8 movement :) happy news for lot of them.EB2 India is @ march 2007!!.Your Predictions are gr8 and keep it coming with this movement :) .

Regards,
KS.

Anonymous said...

Great News.. Congrats to all the people who are current.
Keep up good work CM.You ROCK.

Anonymous said...

Can you imagine - bad luck - we left out with one day - our PD is 9th March 2007 :(

Wait and watch for another month. For sure next month it would retro :(

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Can you imagine - bad luck - we left out with one day - our PD is 9th March 2007 :(

Wait and watch for another month. For sure next month it would retro :



We all have become so pessimistic that if PD moves too fast we start smelling something bad is gone happen (retrogression) to us in next bulletin. Look at what they have done to us. I can understand your pain and good luck to all of us who are still waiting in line and GOD knows when we will be current....

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Can you imagine - bad luck - we left out with one day - our PD is 9th March 2007 :(

Wait and watch for another month. For sure next month it would retro :



We all have become so pessimistic that if PD moves too fast we start smelling something bad is gone happen (retrogression) to us in next bulletin. Look at what they have done to us. I can understand your pain and good luck to all of us who are still waiting in line and GOD knows when we will be current....

Thanks for kind words. I am optimistic. Hope next months bring something nice for us :) Its been a long wait now.

Anonymous said...

hi do you think there will be any forward movememt for
f1 for the coming months? my pd is dec 05

Anonymous said...

CM predictions are baseless and make no sense.

KS said...

@ anonymous jul 10,2:57 pm

If you dont like something please ignore it rather than writing senseless like what you have written!!.respect the forum and the brilliant selfless efforts of another person;if you cant mind your business and walk your way off.because NOBODY wants to hear your senseless comment!.I am one amongst so many people who appreciates this forum/blog and who have a MIND to understand something.Get a life and stop writing senseless comments!

KS~

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Anonymous said...

CM predictions are baseless and make no sense.
June 10, 2011 2:57 PM

CM said...

If you want to use this BC then you have to get affidavits from close relative and parents saying that your name at birth was nickname that was used for BC but your real name is XYZ (some one posted it is tradition in India to name babies after few months).

Else you can show you were born at home and your birth was never registered. Then you can get the affidavits from parents and close relative regarding this.

Birth certificate is important document for immigration because country of chargeability (India) is based on country of birth.

(Now common USCIS, someone who has to forge BC will be the last person on this earth to use India as country of chargeability. ;) )

Anonymous said...

Hi CM - I do have a Birth certificate - but my name on my Birth certificate is different as of now on the passport. I am from India. I do have same name from my 1st grade till date - all official transcripts have my name as of now. Only place it is different is on the birth certificate.

What should be the procedure?

CM said...

I would call NVC and discuss this with them. They will tell you where to send originals. Do not panic and just call and discuss they will help you. Originals are needed.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM
Thanks for this wonderful site.
I have added my spouse as my derivative & inform nvc, I paid the visa fee bill, then they send me the checklist, but the documents I sent to nvc is all photocopies of my marriage cert. birth cert. of my husband and his passport copy. My agency told me that because it should be all original and nvc will not accept it if it is coming from principal applicant like me and it will cause a delay on my part, since I can declare my husband during CP interview.
Now I am worried if it will really cause a delay on my part and the documents I sent together with the ds230, I hope you can enlighten me on this matter. I am thinking maybe if there is a missing documents NVC will inform me and will ask for it. I really dont know, please help.I am eb3- feb 2006 pd.
Thanks and more power to you!

CM said...

Thank you for posting this. This tells us first quarter of 2008 is possibility. Since CP demand is only few percentage for EB2-IC, there are good chances these cut-off dates will become current and these individuals will end up getting green card before Sep 2011. They usually say after receiving visa bill, dates would become current in 8-9 months but with such low CP demand, it can quicker too.


Anonymous said...

@CM
Hi CM
My PD is apr 2008 and I have also received email from NVC regarding councilar processing?

Thanks

CM said...

Once you become current you can open SR and get infopass to see update on your case. Then just wait for approval to come if everything is all set.


Anonymous said...

What is the procedure once we become current? I have approved I-140 and filled 485 in 2007. With PD sept 25 2005 ROW i'm expecting to be current in this bulletin but have no idea what's next. Do I have to fill anything or just wait for the letter? And how long it typically takes? Thank in advance.

Anonymous said...

CK,

My PD is Nov, 2008 & i was wondering based on your predictions, when do you think it would become current.

Thank you for taking so much time and responding to each thread/question. Greatly appreciate your contribution & service.




@CM

Anonymous said...

This is awesome.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,
Given the significant jump PD's have witnessed so far, is there any possibility that the EB-2 India dates may even retrogress this year?

Thanks,
Sid

CM said...

If you want to use this BC then you have to get affidavits from close relative and parents saying that your name at birth was nickname that was used for BC but your real name is XYZ (some one posted it is tradition in India to name babies after few months).

Else you can show you were born at home and your birth was never registered. Then you can get the affidavits from parents and close relative regarding this.

Birth certificate is important document for immigration because country of chargeability (India) is based on country of birth.

(Now common USCIS, someone who has to forge BC will be the last person on this earth to use India as country of chargeability. ;) )

Anonymous said...

Hi CM - I do have a Birth certificate - but my name on my Birth certificate is different as of now on the passport. I am from India. I do have same name from my 1st grade till date - all official transcripts have my name as of now. Only place it is different is on the birth certificate.

What should be the procedure?

CM said...

How different is the name? If full name vs initials then get a affidavits from your parents and one close relative, vouching that your real full name is XYZ and reason for the making affidavit is your name was not spelled full in the BC at time of birth.

If it is totally different then you have to justify in the affidavit that given name in BC was nick name or you legally changed name after some time. In that case while filing I-485 make sure you write your BC name as OTHER name in the form.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM - I do have a Birth certificate - but my name on my Birth certificate is different as of now on the passport.

What should I do?

Thanks in advance. And I love this website and appreciate your time in replying queries.

Anonymous said...

hi cm ,
my pd is january 31 2006 under eb3 philippines i want to ask again if when will be my pd becomes current? thank you so much...God Bless!!!

Anonymous said...

In best case scenario what is the duration of this small window that EB2I can be current. Can someone eligible for EB2 can file I140 and I485 concurrently to get EAD at least (with managing the prior PERM and Advt accordingly).

Thanks

Anonymous said...

can we have new analysis based on new june inventory please:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011.pdf

CM said...

Dear folks from Eb2-India and China, I am not promising you anything and would not like to give anyone false hopes but I still want everyone to please make sure their required documents for I-485 filings is upto date and ready for small window that may open (chances are very small) in next 2-3 months. I am not sure but it could be current or atleast move until late 2007 for a small time.

Most important prepare for long lead items like your birth certificate et al so that they are in place with right name and place of birth.If not then have your notarized affidavits ready from your home country.

Please note chances are very very small but if we have more than maximum spillvoer anticipated then DOS has to move dates to get unused visa numbers utilized before Sep 2011. USCIS will not be able to take the load, and load has to be shared with CPs abroad by advancing dates more than required.

Jayaprathap said...

CM

Excellent analysis. I think the GC prediction calculator is your finest work. I appreciate you being conservative and providing the perspective behind the predictions.

Dub question, how do you think dates after Jul 2007 will move faster. My PC is Sep 2007 and hoping tbe current sometime in 2012

CM said...

@TR You never know how things would shake up. Getting NVC emails on Immigration Processing invoice bill for PD October 2007 is a positive sign. So if we assume that 2500 value that I assumed for porting is far outstretched, in that case late June PDs can be squeezed in. If July visa bulletin will reach January 2007 by any chance then yes we are moving towards maximum spillover anticipated.

If dates will move upto first week of June 2007 in FY 2011 then in order to get some inventory they have to move dates in first quarter of 2012. As some one posted today that folks from PD 2008 also received email from NVC suggests that DOS/USCIS/NVC are trying to build some pipeline for next year.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,
Any chance EB3 Phils with a PD of Nov 2007 becoming current in two years? I'm planning to give it up after I reach a certain age as my family will need to settle permanently soon, can no longer risk starting from square 1. If I do give it up, will I still be able to avail a visa if I want to go there for a holiday?....PB - UK

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous I have seen CM predicting correct or close dates for past visa bulletins for many categories. EB2I has lot of variables to predict it correctly. What is your basis for 22January 2007 cut-off date for EB2I?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Chances for Retrogression is less until September 2011 as we believe that there is still some number of unused visa numbers available. PWMBs and PFWDs are not that high to cause retrogression at least for August bulletin.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

CK - EB2-I November 2008 is not expected to be current without retrogression for next 2-3 years. May be this Sep 2011 it will current for month but chances are none to slim.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

It is prediction and totally based on calculation and assumption of CP demand. I am sorry if it does not make sense to you but this is so much I can do about it.

If you have better approach to it, please post your predictions/projections and share with everyone else just zip it.

F Mendes64 said...

Hello

i got a letter from Uscis this past saturday. Please check you priority date and category on your i140 for visa availability?
Im current since May 1 Priority date 15aug05. eb3. Do you think i will be approved soon?

CM said...

Is your CP case? Did you get an email from NVC?

Sid said...

Just to clarify, are you alluding to Sep visa bulletin or the month itself (Oct visa bulletin)?

CM said...

I am referring to September visa bulletin.

Sid said...

Thanks for clarifying.
And this may be a dumb question but how do these PD dates typically work. If Jul 2011 bulletin for EB 2 says current thru Mar 8, does this mean that folks current under this date can file on/after Jul 1, 2011 thru atleast Jul 31, 2011 or they can file as soon as the new dates are announced?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Anyone with PD before 8 March 2007 can file as early as on 1st July 2011 until cut-off dates are retrogressed where their PD date is no more current .

Wormwood888 said...

CK - EB2-I November 2008 is not expected to be current without retrogression for next 2-3 years. CM what do you mean by this retrogression? You mean by 2013 or 2014 there will be retrogression again?

Sid said...

Is the USCIS always known to announce PD dates 'on cycle' i.e. 1st week of every month, or can they retrogress mid cycle also?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I mean that EB2-I November2008 can get current this year for a while (less chances) but then retrogress and then you have to wait 2-3 years for it to get current again . But when this time it will get current it will be for real and will never retrogress and you can expect your gc in 4-6 months from that time.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Dates are announced usually second Friday of the month. It will never retrogress in the middle of month. If they have to retrogress they have to do for next month bulletin.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Hi guys in midst of transition from old comment UI to new comment UI, if I have not answered to a specific comment of yours please let me know.

Sid said...

My PD is April 1, 2007 under EB 2, can I still apply if the music stops at April 1, 2007 in the Aug bulletin?

CM said...

If dates will move to April 1 2007 and your PD is 1 Apr 2007 then you have to wait until dates will reach 8th April 2007.

Note : Cut off dates are usually 1st,8th,15th and 22nd of the month.

Redbull09 said...

CM, My priority date is March 2009 (EB2 India), realistically, when do you think this would get current. I need to plan moves on this guess. Thanks a lot for your good work.

Namasteall2000 said...

Thanks CM for your advise.

Our PD is 9th March 2007 and hoping it to be current by next month.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Realistically 3-4 years. Let's see where date will retrogress in October 2011.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

You should be current next month!!!

Guest said...

Hi,

My priority date is october 2007, when do you think my PD will be current?.

Thanks

Guest said...

90 %

Kumar said...

hi CM... my priority date is Dec 12,2007 --- EB2.What are chances of it becoming current in 2011

RAE524 said...

Hi
My priority date is Nov. 2007 (EB3-Philippines) when do you think this would get current.
Thank you.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Anywhere from 4-5 years as of now. We will know more as dates progress next year.

Jasmeen kaur said...

hello,
my priority date is May 2004(india) when do you think we will get visa??

Jasmeen kaur said...

what does 'EB' mean???

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Anywhere from 3-6 Years depending how many before your PD will port each year. BTW EB means Employment-Based.

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