Sunday, April 29, 2012

June 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category


Sunday, April 29, 2012 | , , , , , ,

June 2012 Visa Bulletin will be third bulletin for Q3 - FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for June 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.


June 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions
    • EB3- China could advance to 15 June 2005
    • EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 May 2006
    • EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines at least for this quarter.
    • EB3-India could advance to 15 September 2002.
    • EB2-India and EB2-China would stay at 15th August 2007 in June and July visa bulletin. At this point, DOS has announced that available visas for EB2 China and India have been exhausted. So far I am still hopeful of some movement in August or September visa bulletin for this category. Again, movement will be dependent on what is status of EB1 and EB2-ROW backlog at that point. Expect movement to atleast PD March 2008 or beyond in October 2012 visa bulletin.
    NotePredictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt. 




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      54 comments:

      Fan_CM_EB2Ind said...

      Dear CM,

      My PD Dec 2007 Eb2. I'm derivative dependant with spouse primary who received GC in March . However mine who applied based on her receipt is still in process. Called Level 2 officer and he said it is actively processed all checks went through.

      When should I expect GC ?

      April2008 said...

      My PD is April 2008 ,Any predictions on how many days/years i have to wait for dates to be current again ?

      Thx
      S
       

      K Alishahbazi said...

      Hi CM
      Thank you for your prediction.

      Anonymous said...

      i think eb3row/mexico/phils. will move up to june 8, 2006.

      Murali Ravi said...

      Hi CM,

      Thanks for your post. Since DOS has announced that available visas for India and China have been exhausted, if they were make any movement in the last quarter of 2012, how would they justify that movement. I mean they would have to give some explanation as to why they issued this statement now and why they are again moving dates in the last quarter. Has this ever happened in the past? Like announcement of visas being exhausted for the fiscal yr followed by some movement in the same yr.

      Thanks

      Murali

      Raminfo said...

      Thank you

      GC said...

      Hi CM,
      My PD is may 4, 06, i hope i will be current. do i have to do any thing in this period?
      Please tell me.
      Thanks
      GC

      Katz said...

      Just contact your sponsor or agency for inforation

      jbmayson said...

       hi,
      my pd is august2006 eb3 phils.when do you think i'll get to be current? (my pd)
      tnx!

      GC said...

      which agency you are talking about USCIS? i am working for my sponsor but they do not know any further step. MY is EB3, and i do not have any attorney at this moment.

      Thank you and hope to hear back from you soon.
      GC

      sheisgreenapple said...

      HI my PD is may 31,2006 eb3 philippines....when do you think my pd will become current? thanks...

      CM_USNonImmigrants said...

      I just now finished talking to our attorney friend, he is suggesting that EB2-IC is becoming 'U' in coming bulletin. There is also a chance that EB2-ROW/M/P will have cut-off dates assigned to them in July visa bulletin. He sounded confident about this.

      Lets see what will happen. Good Luck.

      Kumar n said...

       thats a very bad sign .. right CM ?
      If EB-2 ROW gets date assigned and EB-1, then there is no chance of any spill-over either; i guess. right ? and Eb-2 could be frozen until next year quota , which starts in October ?

      please say that i am wrong and correct me if any. thanks much

      ginzeng said...

      won't there be a chance that eb3 phil would be lucky to jump to june1 for the upcoming VB?

      guest said...

       This is correct. Look like EB2 I is now becoming Eb3 I and the dates will move probably by 1-2 monthe every year...SO anyone will EB2 pd in 2011 can expect to get their GC in 2025!!

      CM_USNonImmigrants said...

      Demand Data - June 2012
      http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

      EB2 Demand  
                                       ROW China India Mexico Philippines TotalJanuary 1, 2008 500 2,600 0 3,100January 1, 2009 2,325 10,150 0 12,475January 1, 2010 2,925 12,525 0 15,450January 1, 2012 2,950 12,650 150 15,750
      EB3 Demand  
                                       ROW China India Mexico Philippines TotalJanuary 1, 2002    0 0 0 0 0 0January 1, 2003    0 0 3,275 0 0 3,275January 1, 2004    0 0 14,525 0 0 14,525January 1, 2005    0 25 27,225 0 0 27,250January 1, 2006   100 1,125 35,550 25 50 36,850January 1, 2007   13,775 2,175 45,675 1,275 8,750 71,650January 1, 2012   21,575 2,675 49,500 2,100 11,150 87,000

      kumar n said...

      the demand being 15,450 till Jan 1, 2010; per year limit for EB-2 being 2800; will it take another 5 years for the priority date to go past Jan 1, 2010 ?
      this is assuming no spill-over. if by luck we get few hundred of spill-over if any; we can expect it to be in 4 yrs, instead of 5 yrs ?
      is that the big picture ?

      kumar n said...

      small correction. demand being 12525; 12525/2800 = approx. 4 yrs..!!

      waitingforgc said...

       Hello CM,

      Can you please explain us this demand data ..does it mean there only 2,600 people waiting for GC   upto Jan 2008 PD. Mine is in Dec 4th 2007 and I didn't had enough luck to get GC yet..
      Does the demand data only for pre-adjucated case numbers, if so what would be your factor TO MULTIPLY  to get  estimated pending 485'S.

      Reddy said...

       I-485 Pending Inventory is out - 05/03/2012
      http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green Card/Green Card Through a Job/I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics/Employment-based I-485 Pending Inventory as of 05-03-12.xls

      guest said...

      June VB, EB2 I - Unavailable

      CM_USNonImmigrants said...

      June Visa Bulletin Out

      Employment  Based
       
                  ROW      India    China     Mexico   Philippines
      EB1 - Current
      EB2 - Current    Unavailable Unavailable Current Current
      EB3- 08June06  15Sep02 08Aug05  08June06   22May06
      Eb4 - Current
      EB5 - Current
      * - Note different dates for EB3-ROW/M and EB3-P

      Family Based

                  ROW /I/C           Others
      F1 - 22Jun05     01Jul97
      F2A - 01Jan10   01Jan10
      F2B - 15Apr04   08Dec01
      F3 - 1Apr02         22Jul92
      F4 - 8Jan01        22Jan 89

      CM_USNonImmigrants said...

      As suggested by attorney friend there is likelihood that we will see cut-off date established for EB2-ROW-M-P next month.

      Mr O. has already mentioned this in the officially released VB.

      Employment First:  Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date at the end of the fiscal year in an effort to limit number use within the annual numerical limit.  
      Employment Second:  Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date for this category for all countries other than China and India.  Such action may be required at any time during the next few months. 
      Please be advised that the above are only estimates for what could happen during the next few months based on applicant demand patterns experienced in recent months. 

      SM said...

      USCIS recently released the I-485 pending inventory and the Demand Data for June. According to the Inventory there are  6,100 pending cases prior to Jan 2008 (or up to Dec 2007) for EB2I, but according to the Demand Data there is a cumulative demand of only 2,600 visas for EB2I prior to Jan 1, 2008. What is the reason for this discrepancy and which is a better indicator of the actual visa demand?

      Also DOS released the June 2012 bulletin but withdrew it. Original showed EB2I as unavailable. Any speculations?

      Paang5481 said...

       why the difference in philippines? can anyone pls explain? thnx

      Lou parker said...

      Why is it that the official june 2012 visa bulletin was removed from its website? is their any corrections on the cut off?

      Tester said...

       Best option is go home

      Anonymous said...

      they remove it due to possible corrections,and to be release for the 2nd time most probably by monday next week.

      ny10013 said...

      CM,

      Any early prediction about the cutoff dates for EB2I and EB2C in Q1 2013? Is the current situation similar to the one in summer 2007?

      Thanks!

      guest said...

       The menace of Indian population and Indian corruption has taken over EB2 and Eb3 categories. Best option is to  earn some decent money and go back home I don't expect any immigration reforms specifically for Indians because they know that Indians will anyway stick to the GC queue  whatsoever for all their life!! Unless people stop chasing their GC dream , things will not improve.

      Vaibhav said...

      not only before Jan 2008 but there is overall big discrepancy between inventory and demand data. Total inventory shows 39577 but demand data shows just 12650 for eb2 India. Thats BIG difference. But if you look at eb3 india total inventory shows 49445 and demand data shows 49500 for eb3 india so almost close. Since we know they show demand data more or less depending on what date they want to put in VB, the inventory data must be more correct. Also just 12650 eb2 applications till may 2010 also seems little less so my guess is inevntory data is more correct so if close to 40k cases are already come eb2 is going to become like eb3 for next few years.

      Guest said...

      Damand data reflects the people who have completed every thing like Back ground check and ready for GC but waiting for a Visa Number where as the Inventory is all the pending applications including recently applied and who have RFE, Bac ground check pending, extended review etc. Correct me if I am wrong.

      Vaibhav said...

      I dont think there is such difference. I think demand data is just a figure they show to manage VB. in any case some day inventory is going to become ready for GC. I understand some may get rejected etc but total inventory of almost 40k in eb2 is huge number.

      SK said...

      The previous comment by Guest is correct. Inventory is just pending applications. Demand data is the number of application completed all the checks and just waiting for visa number.

      GC said...

      Hi Friends,
      I am current on june Visa Bulletin ( EB3), do you have any idea if i have to do anything? also how long does it take to get approved?
      Thank you and looking some information, Please!
      GC

      jbmayson said...

       you will be current by august base on the present trending.

      Zhora said...

       Do you or your attorney friend have any guesses/estimates what the cut-off date for EB2-ROW might be?

      Guest said...

       Congratulations. Try to get hold of your employer/agency as they will guide you on the procedures.

      Ramsaran said...

      Hi CM,
                     Thank you very much for your guidance. It helps us a lot. Can you please post predictions for FY 2013 based on pending 485 inventory and demand data.

      Best Regards,

      Ram

      guest said...

      CM,why is it that the E3P was left behind by E3ROW @ E3M by more than 2 weeks??Will it be the trend for the remaining months of this quarter?? 

      GC said...

      Thank you so much for your reply. I am working for them but they are unknown about it and i do not have any attorney at this point. Thats the reason i am asking here. I am just wondering if i have to contact USCIS? Thank you again!

      GC

      GCBOYZ said...

      CM.Please post your predictions for EB2I FY2012 and 2013 based on rececnt USCIS inventory data.

      aq said...

       Congrats, there is a link on this website that tells you what to do. And can you please keeps us updated on when you get ur GC so that others know the time span. No one comes back to this website after they are current :(

      GC said...

      Thank you, I will post.

      Crispinbasilio said...

      Hi CM,
      Can you please post your July visa predictions?
      Thank you!

      Paang5480 said...

      good day CM,
      when would you be posting your july 2012 VB predictions? im really excited. my pD is june 2, 2012 eb3 phil. thank you so much.

      Anonymous said...

      pdate is june 2,2012 eb3?ul be current after 2020. Forget u.s.

      Laong Laan said...

       This site seems to be idle since HR 3012 faded away. Cheer up! A similar bill is being introduced in the senate, but to many, it's a bad news.

      greenapple said...

      HELLO CM,
        Kindly post your july 2012 VB predictions...Thank you. My PD is may 31,2006.

      Anonymous said...

      more and more eb3 nurzez have been abandoned by petitioners, no job offer,no visa.

      Anonymous said...

      July 2012 vb please.. :-) tnx

      AQ said...

       Did you hear back from them? or still waiting???

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