February 2012 Visa Bulletin for the FY 2012 was released yesterday. February visa bulletin brought 12 months remarkable movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, thus moving it to the most favorable cut-off dates ever. EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected by 2 weeks and 6 weeks. All other categories are current. Family Based category saw some movement.
Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
- EB-1 remains current across the board.
- EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines. EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by twelve (12) months to January 1, 2010.
- EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to February 22, 2006, EB-3 China moves forward by six (6) weeks to December 1, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by only one (1) week to August 15, 2002.
- The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by three (3) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to February 22, 2006. It also moves forward by two (2) weeks for India to August 15, 2002.
Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:- FB-1 moves forward (again, for fifth consecutive month). FB-1 ROW, China and India all move forward by nine (9) weeks to December 22, 2004. FB-1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 22, 1993 and FB-1 Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to May 22, 1997.
- FB-2A moves forward by six (6) weeks to June 8, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB-2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to May 8, 2009.
- FB-2B ROW, China and India move forward by five (5) weeks to October 15, 2003. FB-2B Mexico remains unchanged at December 1, 1992. FB-2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to November 1, 2001.
VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
Employment First: Current
Employment Second:
China
and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
(USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for
adjustment of status in recent months has been
extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward
movement
of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate
demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level
of new
filings or USCIS processing increases
significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the
cut-off. Readers
are once again advised that an eventual need to
retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.
Employment Third:
Worldwide: up to one month
China: up to one month
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: up to one month
Philippines: up to one month
Employment Fourth: Current
Employment Fifth: Current
Please be advised that the above ranges are only estimates for what could happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand which can occur at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.
FB Categories
Worldwide dates:
F1: three to five weeks
F2A: one to two months
F2B: three to four weeks
F3: one to three weeks
F4: up to one month
Demand Data
EB2-India & China Movement
Few things that can inferred from above statement is that filing upto December Visa Bulletin from October 2011 are very low than what DOS wants as an inventory for FY 2012. We initially expected cases upto December bulletin cut-off date to be around 16000 but current trackitt trend is pointing towards 9412 applications. (2200 I-485 filings from October Receipt Data and 166 trackitt applications gives factor of 13. From October-December 2011, trackitt has 724 pending cases, which converts into 724*13 = 9412 cases). This is too early to suggest that filings are low but we will continue to monitor I-485 Receipt data and trackitt trend for next few days.
DOS bulletin clearly mentions that once the level
of new
filings or USCIS processing increases
significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the
cut-off. So we can be rest assured that atleast for the next visa bulletin there will be no retrogression. Worst case it will stall. Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly. Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also feels movement will continue until April 2012.
As per Mr. Oppenheim, "Readers
are once again advised that an eventual need to
retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility." That eventual need will be seen around May 2012 visa bulletin i.e. in April. 2012 Dates will retrogress at some point but level of retrogression is difficult to determine without inventory data. Retrogression beyond December 2007 is not plausible. If demand continue to stay less, then June September 2008 could be considered as a high mark point for retrogression but for now lets stick to March-June 2008 as cut-off dates for FY 2012 until we see some more inventory numbers.
It was not clear from above analysis how annual visa use scenario looks like if we consider that trackitt trend from October 2011-December 2011 is resemblance of real demand. Please see numbers below
It was not clear from above analysis how annual visa use scenario looks like if we consider that trackitt trend from October 2011-December 2011 is resemblance of real demand. Please see numbers below
EB2-IC rough visa use estimation for FY 2012 that can be accounted upto 31st December 2011 is
Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 22,219
Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 20,897
*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog pre July 2007, after movements for October - November 2011 VB
EB3-ROW-M-P Movement
EB3-ROW-M-P
movement based on demand data is 2350 visa numbers worth month to month. We need 32,400 visa numbers from today to cross PD to January 2007. At current rate, it will take 13 months to cross January 2007, which means for FY 2012, PD cut -off date may only reach around 22nd July 2006.
EB3-India & China Movement
EB3-India is currently moving as expected. There is some eventual EB3 to EB2 porting going on at rate of 250 cases per month based on demand data. If this will continue then we can again see some rapid movement for EB3-I in later part of the year, especially in August-September 2012. EB3-China is moving very well with at least 4-6 weeks movement each month. We expect this movement to continue for rest of the year.
My pd is aug 3, 2006 Phils. Does it mean than i'll be current on November 2012 vb? Thanks
My pd is 19th of october eb3row can you predict when i will be current?
Or eb2 filings are really that low?
In your current analysis, your lowered your estimation to 9k. But DOS clearly states that the rate of new filings are Extremely Low.
DOS said this after seeing all the filing till Mar 15, 2008.
Also, there is support for the above, when they said retrogession is distinctly possible. I would suggest you to wait for the Inventory Report before making future predictions.
I mean no offense at all and as usual feel free to tear this apart.
Spinner.
my priority date is feb 12th 2011. is there a chance it will become current in april bulletin?
Looking at the demand data(DD) for FEB-2012, why is it 258?
I am not sure what DD shows, it may be ppl who have completed processing and waiting for visa number OR ppl who have filed their AOS. Either ways it cant be 258.
As per Inventory report which was released on OCt
1, 2011, it has 8,965 (without PWMB).
You expect filings from OCT-2011 to Dec-2011(including pwmbs) to be around 9k.
So, it should be around 9k(Inv rep)+ 9k (your cal) = 18k.
Also, what is the chance the 9k(inv rep) got approved from spillover from FY2011. I remember they didnt advance dates at end of
FY 2011 and you said its good thing coz USCIS will be processing EB1s. They might denied some of EB1s and those number may have been used for EB2s. I know its a big speculation.
Thats the reason, I felt we need to wait for the next Inventory report.
Spinner.
I do have a valid H1B throught 2013. So, can I come to US on H1B, get my medical done, file for I485/AP/EAD and leave immediately? I believe I can do this but am not sure if this would cause any problems for my return in April.
Does USCIS allow the medical to be done overseas? or can I do certain tests and vaccination so that I can quicky file for AOS and leave?
I would appreciate if CM or forum members can comment.
Thanks.
How many ppl would have survived these...
It is a Pending file for visa requests where the visa has not been, or cannot be allocated.
For Consular Processed cases, a case becomes documentarily qualified when NVC requests a visa at the time the interview date is set. Between that time and when, the interview actually takes place, the visa is pending. If the interview is successful, then the visa is consumed. If the interview is not successful, it is returned to the pool.
For AOS cases, a case becomes documentarily qualified when USCIS approve the I-485 case. At this point they request a visa from DOS.
Only if the visa can not be immediately allocated because the PD is not Current, does that request become part of the Demand Data.
If the PD is Current, which it currently is for all EB2-IC I-485 cases in the system, the visa is allocated, consumed immediately and does not add to the Demand Data.
For all the new applications that USCIS may have received, with an average processing time of 4-6 months, virtually none will have reached the stage of being adjudicated anyway.
Only when Cut Off Dates retrogress can the numbers shown in the Demand Data for EB2-IC increase significantly, because then USCIS will be making visa requests which DOS cannot fulfil immediately.
The few cases shown in the Demand Data at present probably represent Consular Processed cases, where the visa has been pre-allocated, but a successful interview has not yet taken place.
I was wondering whether you have the updated processing time for TSC in December 2011 and January 2012.
I checked the USCIS website and it only shows the update on Nov 14 2011.
Does USCIS update processing time monthly or irregularly?
Thank you for your help and great efforts in the immigration fields as always.
EB2C
Example: The Feb2012 Visa Bulletin was released around Jan2012. Does that mean the Feb PD dates that became current are valid from 1stFeb2012 to 29thFeb2012 and I-485 has to be filed within these dates?
What if I was not able to file I-485 within these dates and the PD goes backwards or retrogresses in the next VB (Mar2012)? Can I still file I-485 after 29thFeb2012 or do I need to wait until date becomes current again?
We are in the process of filing AOS and We have one question regarding Place of Bith in Passport.
The Place of Birth in my wife's PP is listed as "HYDERABAD AP" where AP is the state name(Andhra Pradesh). Her BC and Birth affidavits have Place of Birth listed as "HYDERABAD" only. Would this be problem when applying for AOS.
Any advice from ppl who seen this before would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks.
BTW to my Tebow fans, just hoping that Patriots can bring this to an end. GO Pats!!!! Although love his character.
See how majority of Budget is funded from Immigration Fee Account and Fraud Prevention Account.
Thanks for all the work you do.
I have a question , I have applied my EB2 perm and waiting for approval. My Eb3 PD is 2008. I couldn't apply in 2007 fiasco even if I have came here in 2003. Now I would like port my date to 2008. My question is if I do concurrent filing of 140 and 485 , Do I get EAD and AP even if my 140 is not approved. I can not be eligible for 140 PP. as company has already filed my extension.
Thanks so much.
Thanks You.
I really appreciate your service. But, your analysis is of the mark most of the time. I can't come to any conclusion with your judgment calls regarding movement. You have been saying that EB-2 is going to retrogress for a long time. But, the dates keep moving forward and they might continue to do so. I would suggest that you be a little open minded and change your process according to the reality on the ground.
I really do appreciate your service. I just want this service to be more realistic so that it can benefit everyone.
Thanks.
I'm regular visitor to your site and got good insight into GC processing from your posts.
Do you think my PD 26-JAN-2010 EB2-India become current in next month March Bulletin ?
Instead of being happy that dates moved such a rapid rate in Feb bulletin, I'm feeling sad that i missed the boat by 26 days :-(
Thanks,
Prash(*_*)
I missed the boat by just 7 days, my PD is 07-jan-2010..
hope we both will be current by next bulletin..
MK
Let's pray that next month bulletin will give ray of hope for many people waiting to file 485.
Good Luck.
Cheers,
Luvspider
Great work.!! My pd is oct 18, 2007 and applied for aos in november. Do you think I will get my GC this cal year (or this quota year)?
Thanks
Krishna
I just saw this post that predicts as much as one year movement for EB2IC in the March Visa bulletin, but, they don't mention their source.
http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2012/01/one-more-month-of-good-news-for-eb-2-indians-and-chinese.html
Any thoughts on this?
I agree with your estimate of 2-5 months. I have been monitoring trackitt data and have observed that the rate of applications filed in January is almost the same as in December and November! What is the rough number of applications USCIS likes to keep in its inventory? Any idea?
01/23/2012: Six Months Move-Up of EB-2 Cut-Off Date Possible in March 2012 Visa Bulletin?
AILA reports that according to Mr. Oppenheim of Visa Buruea of DOS, he does not have exact prediction for March, but because of the unusual slow demand by the USCIS, upto six months move-up may be possible, even though one-year move-up may not be likely. Reportedly, at this time, they have used up 34% of total FY 2013 visa numbers and must use upto 45% by the end of February 2012. After such rapid progression, depending on the demand, they will have to decide whether the cut-off dates should remain in stay-put or even retrogress during the Summer.
My take is that still 5 month movement is plausible. USCIS is still dealing with first week filings in October 2011. Anyone within a window of 6 month should be ready to file.
We will post updated information from our attorney friend by next week.
Interesting fact is "Reportedly, at this time, they have used up 34% of total FY 2013 (read 2012) visa numbers and must use upto 45% by the end of February 2012."
Upto February 2012 they are suppose to use 58000 visa numbers and per information it seems that only 476000 visa numbers is used. So some movement can be expected. We will try to come up with visa use budget this evening for EB category. Lets see what makes sense.
Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Jan. 23, 2012)"
On Thursday, January 19, 2012, Business committee chair Mike Nowlan and Students & Scholars committee member, Roberta Freedman, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Notes from that discussion are:
EB green card usage has been very slow in FY2012, so DOS is advancing the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr. Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested.
Mr. Oppenheim could not speculate why usage is slow/low. Economy? Foreign nationals lost jobs?
Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.
Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions.
About 34% of the total number of permanent visas have been used this year, and 45% should be used by end of February.
Adjustment of status through USCIS accounts for 85% to 90% of all EB green card cases.
The impact on number usage of upgrades (EB-3 to EB-2) is still unknown. Upgrades were the reason the priority dates advanced so slowly in in the beginning of FY2011. For upgrades, the EB-3 case does not get cleared out of the system until the EB-2 for the same person is approved.
Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed.
Mr. Oppenheim meets monthly with USCIS and the Ombudsman's office to review the receipt of cases. There was a recent meeting to discuss December numbers. There will be another review before he decides what he will do in March.
Prediction:
Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
• USCIS is agreeing to the priority date advances, though significant advances are bit of a gamble for USCIS, because if they get inundated with adjustment filings, and subsequently there is priority date retrogression, USCIS will have to process EAD and advance parole extensions without additional fees. As we all know, retrogression causes chaos.
Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions. "
What is tells is last year when Mr. O made statement about 12000, those EB5 visa usage numbers were baked into it. His above statement clearly siggests that while calculating projections he takes into account EB5 spillover upto EB1. Last years projection was minimum 12000 for half year but included EB5. This was the reason we didnt see much movement later in the year.
This year he has not used word"minimum", these 12000 is total projected just based on calculations (that is how I read it not sure about if those are real numbers) and includes EB5 spill up.
This chimes well with trackitt trend where EB1 usage is higher compared to last year but EB5 visa use is also high. 12000 is maximum we can expect from EB1+EB5 this year. It is too early to say but USCIS processing is still upto October 2012 and EB1 visa usage may pick up later in the year. As of now based on trackitt trend 12000 looks high ball number.
Thanks for the posts. Its heartbreaking to know that the dates will move 5 months and stall / the r word... esp since my pd is nov 2010.
The last 2 movements have made us greedy probably.
When do u think the dates will move again?? 2013 fy??
Do u think I still have a chance if hr 3012 passes?
Thanks again!!
DOS can use a maximum of 27% per quarter (or 9% per month).
By the end of January we would expect a maximum of 140,000 * 36% = 50,400
On January 19th the usage was 34%, or 47,600.
With 10 days to go, there were just 2,800 visas left for January.
By the end of February the maximum allowed is 45% or 63,000.
But if we think in terms of 27% quarter limit, it makes sense. But that is the limit but nothing says that they have to use it. At this point if he will stick to monthly allocations 58333 is the minimum he should be using. But good point overall.
P.S. - The Visa Office subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified in the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) into four quarterly allotments. The law prohibits the issuance of more than 27% of the annual quota in any of the first three quarters of the fiscal year. Thus, for employment based purposes, the Visa Office of the Department of State (the organization mandated with management of the quota) starts with about 37,800 total visas per quarter for each of the first three quarters.
Thank you!
Eagerly waiting for the update!!
Aq
LOSER!!!
With a PD of 09/09, I finally became current. Unfortunately, I took an overseas assignment that goes on till end of April.I do have a valid H1B through 2013.
So, can I come to US on H1B, get my medical done, file for I485/AP/EAD and leave immediately? I believe I can do this but am not sure if this would cause any problems for my return in April.
Does USCIS allow the medical to be done overseas? or can I do certain tests and vaccination so that I can quicky file for AOS and leave?
I would appreciate if CM or forum members can comment.
Thanks.
Yes you can do medicals rough any approved USCIS surgeon in your country.
I got Green Card late October, 2011. I want to know if I can change company after 4 months of working with employer who sponsored green card based on AC21 rule. I shall be in same profession with similar job responsibilities but better pay scale. Do I need to wait for 6 months or a year to show my intent of being employed with the employer? Your comments and advise is appreciated.
Nest Regards
PBTX
In general, I will advise to talk to your new employer if they can delay your start date by 2 months.