Visa Bulletin - February 2012 US Non-Immigrants: Home to All Non Immigrants

February 2012 Visa Bulletin for the FY 2012 was released yesterday. February visa bulletin brought 12 months remarkable movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, thus moving it to the most favorable cut-off dates ever. EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected by 2 weeks and 6 weeks. All other categories are current. Family Based category saw some movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

EB-1 remains current across the board.
EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines. EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by twelve (12) months to January 1, 2010.
EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to February 22, 2006, EB-3 China moves forward by six (6) weeks to December 1, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by only one (1) week to August 15, 2002.
The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by three (3) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to February 22, 2006. It also moves forward by two (2) weeks for India to August 15, 2002.

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

FB-1 moves forward (again, for fifth consecutive month). FB-1 ROW, China and India all move forward by nine (9) weeks to December 22, 2004. FB-1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 22, 1993 and FB-1 Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to May 22, 1997.
FB-2A moves forward by six (6) weeks to June 8, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB-2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to May 8, 2009.
FB-2B ROW, China and India move forward by five (5) weeks to October 15, 2003. FB-2B Mexico remains unchanged at December 1, 1992. FB-2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to November 1, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

EB Categories

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

China and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for adjustment of status in recent months has been extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.

Employment Third:
Worldwide: up to one month
China: up to one month
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: up to one month
Philippines: up to one month

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current

Please be advised that the above ranges are only estimates for what could happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand which can occur at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.

FB Categories

Worldwide dates:
F1: three to five weeks
F2A: one to two months
F2B: three to four weeks
F3: one to three weeks
F4: up to one month

Demand Data

EB2-India & China Movement

Statement in Visa bulletin clearly tells that so far (i.e. 6th January 2012) upto third business day of January visa bulletin, rate of filings is very low and hence in order to ensure that enough demand is available for USCIS to process during spillover season for FY 2012, dates had moved rapidly.

Few things that can inferred from above statement is that filing upto December Visa Bulletin from October 2011 are very low than what DOS wants as an inventory for FY 2012. We initially expected cases upto December bulletin cut-off date to be around 16000 but current trackitt trend is pointing towards 9412 applications. (2200 I-485 filings from October Receipt Data and 166 trackitt applications gives factor of 13. From October-December 2011, trackitt has 724 pending cases, which converts into 724*13 = 9412 cases). This is too early to suggest that filings are low but we will continue to monitor I-485 Receipt data and trackitt trend for next few days.

DOS bulletin clearly mentions that once the level of new filings or USCIS processing increases significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the cut-off. So we can be rest assured that atleast for the next visa bulletin there will be no retrogression. Worst case it will stall. Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly. Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also feels movement will continue until April 2012.

As per Mr. Oppenheim, "Readers are once again advised that an eventual need to retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility." That eventual need will be seen around May 2012 visa bulletin i.e. in April. 2012 Dates will retrogress at some point but level of retrogression is difficult to determine without inventory data. Retrogression beyond December 2007 is not plausible. If demand continue to stay less, then June September 2008 could be considered as a high mark point for retrogression but for now lets stick to March-June 2008 as cut-off dates for FY 2012 until we see some more inventory numbers.

It was not clear from above analysis how annual visa use scenario looks like if we consider that trackitt trend from October 2011-December 2011 is resemblance of real demand. Please see numbers below

EB2-IC rough visa use estimation for FY 2012 that can be accounted upto 31st December 2011 is

Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 22,219

Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 20,897

*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog pre July 2007, after movements for October - November 2011 VB

EB3-ROW-M-P Movement

EB3-ROW-M-P movement based on demand data is 2350 visa numbers worth month to month. We need 32,400 visa numbers from today to cross PD to January 2007. At current rate, it will take 13 months to cross January 2007, which means for FY 2012, PD cut -off date may only reach around 22nd July 2006.

EB3-India & China Movement

EB3-India is currently moving as expected. There is some eventual EB3 to EB2 porting going on at rate of 250 cases per month based on demand data. If this will continue then we can again see some rapid movement for EB3-I in later part of the year, especially in August-September 2012. EB3-China is moving very well with at least 4-6 weeks movement each month. We expect this movement to continue for rest of the year.