Here are the recent EB1 statistics released by AILA until July 19th, 2011 for receipts, approval, denials and RFE for FY 2011 and FY 2010.
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| EB1- Statistics for FY 2010 and FY 2011 |
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| EB1 - DHS Statistics based on Primary and Derivative applicants for FY 2010 |
From FY 2011 statistics it looks there are almost 8,712 approvals so far until July 2011. If we will consider that the similar family size or Primary to Dependent ratio as FY 2010 is assumed, i.e. 2.39, full year FY 2011 consumption for EB1 for FY 2011 becomes,
FY 2011 Consumption EB-1 = ( 8712 * 2.39 * 12 months )/ 9.5 months (until July 2011)
= 26,301
So this leaves, 40,000 -26,301 = 13,699 as unused visa numbers for spillover. We know out of these 12K is already used. So in all we can expect only 2000-3000 for September visa bulletin for FY 2011. Expectation from EB1 is very little for the next bulletin.
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48 comments:
CM,Thanks for the quick analysis. So, that means, we shd expect very less movement for Sep. Bul.? Like 4-5 weeks...
Dear CM: Thank you for excellent data. Is that 12k spillover already used out or have some left for last month?
CM, a question from the data: 2010 total applicants and dependents is 23938+17117, isn't that over the annul limit for all countries of eb1 category?
If my question is rational, then how can eb2 FY10 moved significantly without spillover from eb1?
Thanks much CM for the quick analysis on EB1. What is guesstimate on EB2ROW spill over if any contributing to Sept Bulletin.
Thanks again,
PK
CM, based on this . How do you project EB2 India will move in Sept and what to expect for EB2 India in 2012 . Will it go until Dec of 2007 ?
CM shouldn't you be using 2010 140 approvals data for 2011 visa number consumption? I would imagine the 140's approved in 2010 Q4 would have their 485's approved in Q1 2011. Thinking along the lines..
FY 2011 Consumption EB-1 = ( 8712 * 2.39 ) (Until july 2011) + ((13744/4) 1 Qtr of 2011 * 2.39) = 29033
So I would imagine there is hardly any spillover from EB1 anymore. only hope would be EB4+EB5.
Well EB1 data suggests that but we should remember that number until 9.5 months are for sure but what is calculated for rest of the fiscal year may not translate into real demand. It is just hypothetical but not impossible. I would say minimum 01 June 2007 is possible. But my personal gut is at least until 15 June 2007.
I think that 12K is completely used.. For last month I still think only 3500 at most will be available.
I do not believe EB1 was the reason for majority of movement for last year. It was majorly due to EB2-ROW , EB4 and EB5 and 10k spillover from FB category. More than annual limit use for EB1 was because of spillover from FB category.
Not more than 500-1500. Mostly around 1000 on average. I do not know how much EB1 demand post July 19, 2007 will translate into real demand. It all depends. Good thing is may be less until 12 Aug 2011(Sep VB expected). But I still need to think about Naveen's post. Some numbers from last quarter of FY 2010 need to be accounted for. Other thing is EB4 demand, we need to think about that too, if it is going to yield some number. All this time we expected none from EB4. Even 500 will be helpful.
September bulletin as per my gut feeling is 15 June 2007. What is left for last month is just speculation. Movement can be as less as 4-5 weeks and as much as 10 weeks. FY 2012 until December 2007 has good chances so far.
Naveen, this is a very good point which I missed while calculating. Thank you for bringing it to our attention. I think anything until August 12 should be accounted for this year in addition to some numbers for Q4 FY 2010. We should remember most of these cases are concurrently filed and will be approved in few days on approval of I-140. I would not considers demand for total quarter but may be for 2 months. So again thinking on same line :
FY 2011 Consumption EB-1 = ( 8712 * 2.39 ) (Until July 2011) + (2months * (13744/12) 1 Qtr of 2011 * 2.39) = 26295.
So either way numbers come very close.
You brought one more good point about EB4. We have no information about these demand. Even few numbers from this category will be helpful.
Also need to consider , last quarter I-140 approvals doesn't usually get I-485 approved in the same fiscal year. Just like some 2010 Eb2 demand rolled over to 2011.
Thanks much CM, if it reaches June 15th, 2007 in sept bulletin, how many more months do you think it takes to reach July 8th 2007. Thanks again for your patience and insight.
PK.
CM,
If sep bulletin for EB2 IC is 15 June 2007, Can someone with priority date of 15 June 2007 apply? Thanks.
Thank you CM.
No, people with PD of 14 June or earlier can file, in case of PD for 15 June 2007 becomes current.
Thanks..I may miss the boat..
Hi CM,
You are saying that Sep visa bulletin for EB2 Ind would move till Jun 15th 07.
What will happen for Oct visa bulletin. I am assuming that 2800 visas will come as part of Fiscal year 2012. can we expect any change in Oct bulletin.
Mine is Jun 17th EB2 India.
Thanks
Sairam
Hi CM,
I found the below URL in different immigration disussions site. it has detailed information regarding Eb1 - i-140 information, can you please provide your inout on this?
http://www.jessieho.com/xwView.asp?xw_id=518
the regular visas can only be distributed monthly, so its like less than 250 a month, which will be completely taken away by porting and new filers in last few months of Fiscal Year 2011 (also known as PWMB people who missed the boat). So there would be no movement at all until an actual spill over.
Cm,
Did you talk to your friend who correctly mentioned that the aug bulletin will not move much. What has he to say for the sep bulletin
So here is the update from my friend at the law firm. This is what they expect in September bulletin and Q1 of FY 2011. I am just posting the facts he quoted. How accurate it is unknown to me like everyone here who is speculating some good movement for next visa bulletin.
1) There is decent increase in the I-485 filings for EB1 in last two months. On average EB1 approvals are not that high but are coming regularly. They are hoping for some increase in approvals in last two months.
2) EB2 filings are still at same level like previous few months. No surge in EB2 approvals. Trend in approval is shifting more downwards compared to last few months.
3) They have filed lot of I-485 cases for EB2-IC since May 2011. These are mostly those who did not file in July 2007 (primary + dependent) and only for dependents of primary applicants who filed in July 2007. The firm alone has filed around 250-300 such applications For May-July VB.
4) They at the firm believe movement for September 2011 VB will be equivalent to last month’s VB. They believe dates will just cross PD May 2007.
5) After September 2011 VB, dates will keep on moving by one week until Q1 of FY 2012 and then stall until May 2012.
6) They believe that EB3-ROW-M-P and EB3-I will move more than usual in Sep VB. (I am very surprised at this statement. This is only possible if some visa numbers are left from annual quota for each category)
CM – This is update from our friend. My take for EB2-IC is still at 15 June 2007 for September VB.
Rahul, it is the same data as above just presented differently. It includes VSC and Csc data but numbers are too few to consider. Thanks for posting this.
I agree with anonymous but dates may move slowly in Q1 FY 2012 until dates cross PD July 2007.
Agree. Hence numbers from last two months for EB-1 are considered for this calculations. Any EB-1 demand after today will not be considered for this year.
3-4 months if we will not see many PWMBs and porting.
Thanks much CM, Based on your email to James, it appears that there are good numbers of PWMB folks applying for 485, in all realistic sense if the dates wont move to July 8th, 2007, the wait could as well be for 1 year to file 485. Please comment whenever you get time. Thanks again. PK
Please check this document out from the website. It suggests that Eb-2 IC could potentially retrogress subject to increase in Eb3 to Eb2 conversions.
www.fonglegal.com/documents/Immigration_News.pdf
CM, please share your thoughts if this scenario is viable .
With my PD of Dec 2007 EB2I , what does it mean for 2012 possibility of current
Also if you notice in 2010 we have 13744 approved 140's but 41055 (17117 + 23938) 485's approved.
Ratio 41055/13744 = approx 3 (2.987)
So each approved 140 translated to 3 visa numbers.
For 2011 if we extrapolate this = (8712/283 days) until July 11 * 364 (Total days) * 3 (140 translation factor from above)= 33616.
It would mean that we get very little to no spill over from EB1 for Sept 2011.
CM - Love your blog and not arguing with your analysis but merely offering up a pessimistic perspective. Hope you dont mind.
I am traveling until tomorrow. I would reply when I am back. sorry for the wait.
Of all the chnages announced today by USCIS to EB category, only PP for EB1-C is concerning. Addition of entrepreneur and NIW for startup is just more political but does not seem much different from what exists now for EB2. More like same product sold under different label.
If You are a nurse or if you know any nurse friends who have been abandoned by their sponsors/petitioners in recent years. If they already have established priority dates either in 2005 or 2006 but now have no sponsor, you can refer them to me , and I will pay you a fee of $ 400 on each nurse you refer ,if they meet our recruitment criteria
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I think if dates will not cross June 2007 then We can expect dates to move slowly using monthly quota until it reaches july 2007 where most of the PWMBs are there.
15th June 2007 is not hard and fas, it can be one week here and there. If it happened as estimated then October- November will bring some movement. You should be good for CY 2012 unless porting demand is very high.
News on retrogression is from their May 2011 news letter. That sold news and not viable. I will ignore it. Dates should move as estimated in our article on FY 2012 movement.
Thanks Naveen for your analysis. It is perfectly alright to argue and have difference in opinion. There is nothing holy grail about what I do and I am not perfect. It is always good to have different set of eyes to look the data with different outlook.
If I am interpreting this right then you are not assuming any rollover demand ( q4) from 2009 for EB1 to fiscal year 2010 and calculating the dependent factor and then doing the same thing for the FY 2011 approval without considering FY 2010 q4 approval for I-140
and using the same dependent factor to come to EB1 demand. Very interesting. This definitely can give us worst case demand. if this is true then no numbers for EB1 should be expected As we know for movement upto 15 April 2007 we should have used 31k visa numbers. 33k demand as calculated for eb1 would then not add up to 31k.
5.6 k (eb2ic) + 8k (eb2 row) + 7k (eb1 as calc) + 5.6k (eb5) = 26.2k.
Above number is atleast 5k from what we have already seen. So this tells you that either
eb1 demand will be between 26k (as we calc) and 33k (as u calc) or eb4 yielded some numbers. 5k is too exorbitant for eb4 to yield.
But in any case if we think that real demand is anywhere close to 33k then dates will have to retrogress in Sep bulletin or not move. Either case is less likely. What do you think? Did I miss anything. I would love to talk more about this and see what you feel about my reply. Thanks for interesting point.
CM, We appreciate your commitment to this service. You have been travelling yesterday and today, sooner you came in, you started replying to our quiries with patience. Thanks a bunch for that.
The reply button/link on your reply is not available to the one you replied and that's how I am writing this as a new message.
Thanks,
PK
From OH-law firm
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08/04/2011: History of Visa Cut-Off Dates in Visa Bulletin for the Last Month of a Fiscal Year and Advised Filing of New EB-485 Applications in August During Visa Number Available
Historically, the movement of EB visa cut-off dates tends to be either slow or in the worst situation, even move backward. There is no information available about the exact EB-2 visa numbers available for September 2011, the last month of FY 2011. The two factors may affect this: One is the filter-down numbers from EB-1 and the other is the new demand for EB-2 numbers. Currently the first factor may remain in favor of the EB-2 for the Indians and Chinese, but the pressure for increasing new EB-2 numbers is likely to continue since more and more Indians and Chinese with EB-3 cases have been filing new EB-2 cases to recapture the EB-3 priority date, thereby they can move their EB-2 cases closer to the EB-2 visa cut-off dates. Those whose EB-2 visa number became current in the August 2011 may not want to delay their filing of EB-485 applications when their visa numbers are current in August, "out of precaution."
_________________________
It does not look anyone is positive about september visa bulletin.
I love when people start losing steam and then the word "MAGIC" happens. Same thing happened in June VB when things looked hopeless after May VB was released.
It might look odd but just curious to see Aug 2010 PD will be current? May be another 2 to 4 years.
I am curious to see when EB2I Aug 2010 will be current? May be another 2 to 3 years
Thank you for your kind words, PK. Appreciate it.
4 years sounds reasonable.
Hi CM,
Does change of employers company name matter in the approved I 140 of EB2 category,
MY EB2 PD is june 2008 and last year mu original comapny A took over by company B and B company changed the name to A aquisition inc.. and six months back they changed the name from A aquisition to C.
My Employer said that change of company name does not effect Immigration status.
In dec i have to apply for H1 extension and my PD might be current in 1 year..
Coule you please tell the legality impact if any on my extension and GC.
your reply will be highly appreciated.
Thaks
Hi CM,
Just found this on another website and was wondering if this could tell us where we end up for EB2-I in the Sep bulletin.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
Please see my comments uner this article --> http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/07/august-2011-visa-bulletin-and.html
We have put quick anaylsis on that data there.
CM, I believe this has come out true in most cases. Can you please eloborate on 5. Thanks, PK.
As long as your company's tax id also called FEIN number has not changed what they are saying is correct. If it has changed then they will need to do amendment to your I-140
I think when he mentioned that he was thinking more in line for May end as PD. But with PD stuck at 15 April 2007 for EB2-I , I think movement expected is none to very small.
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