Thursday, February 16, 2012

Visa Bulletin: March 2012

Thursday, February 16, 2012 | , , , , ,

March 2012 Visa Bulletin  for the FY 2012 was released few days ago. March visa bulletin brought 4 months movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, thus moving it to the most favorable cut-off dates  ever.  EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected by1 week and 4 weeks. All other categories are current. Family Based category  saw some movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the March 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
  • EB-1 remains current across the board.
  • EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines.   EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by four (4) months to May 1, 2010.
  • EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to March 15, 2006, EB-3 China  moves forward by one (1) month to January 1, 2005, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to August 22, 2002.
  • The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by three (3) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to March 15, 2006.  It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to August 22, 2002.

Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the March 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:
  • FB-1 moves forward (again, for sixth consecutive month).  FB-1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to February 1, 2005.   FB-1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to May 1, 1993 and FB-1 Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to June 22, 1997.
  • FB-2A moves forward by six (6) weeks to July 22, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB-2A Mexico moves forward by seven (7) weeks to July 1, 2009.
  • FB-2B ROW, China and India move forward by one (1) month to November 15, 2003.  FB-2B Mexico remains unchanged at December 1, 1992.   FB-2B Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to December 8, 2001.

EB Categories
No Notes

FB Categories

No Notes

Demand Data

EB2-India & China Movement
It is obvious that EB2-India & China are reaching their high mark point for this year. Currently released inventory suggests that incoming demand for EB2-IC is low compared to what was anticipated based on PERM data. There is apparently lot of multiple PERM filings either to port to EB2,because of job changes, due to more than one filing per family or abandonment of cases during 2008 and 2009. We know that inventory has not covered entire demand for December and January Visa Bulletin movement, and it should be assumed complete only regard to demand upto November visa bulletin. We believe that current movement upto March Visa Bulletin would be sufficient for current year's demand. Please see where demand is heading for current fiscal year based on trackitt demand.

Ratio of representation for EB2-IC on trackitt to inventory number suggests that one trackitt case will convert into 8.6 cases in I-485 inventory. This is based on numbers that were seen in new inventory  up to Oct-November visa movement i.e. 5,603. This when compared to trackitt corresponds to 651 cases. Ratio of these two numbers is 8.6. If we will use same ratio for movements upto February visa bulletin, i.e. PD 01 Jan 2010, demand comes upto 33,220. This number corresponds to PERM to Inventory factor of 0.42. This is very low multiple PERM factor but so far is looking very plausible. I will not be surprised if retrogression that will happen in May-June 2012 will be minimum.  

YTY trackitt ratio had usually held upto 13 vs 8.6; using ratio of 13 gives us PERM to Inventory factor of 0.65. So in any case when retrogression will happen, it will not go beyond  Priority Date November 2008. But how things are looking so far, retrogression may not happen or if will happen will only be until later months of 2009. Since past month USCIS approval rate has picked up. If  rate will drop then we might not even see any retrogression. It is important that USCIS should use visa numbers at consistent rate.  Any slack over there means Consular cases are only hope. Of course, retrogression majorly also depends upon how EB1 and EB2-ROW approvals will pick up with time and if we can  still receive spillover  of 30K. Anything less than this means more retrogression. I believe now it is the right time to divert our focus more towards EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5 demand.

EB2-IC is now at a point where it may stall or just move by two months at most in April 2012. May 2012 should expect stall and worst to worst case little retrogression. Any one with PD before November 2008 should feel confident about receiving green card this year.

EB3-ROW-M-P Movement 
EB3-ROW-M-P movement based on demand data is 2350 visa numbers worth month to month. We need 32,150 visa numbers from today to cross PD to January 2007. Constantly around 1200-1600 new cases are added to the inventory month to month. At current rate, it will take 12 months to cross January 2007, which means for FY 2012, PD cut -off date may only reach around 08 August 2006. Interesting thing to note is that EB3-ROW demand is in 18000 vs EB3-P demand which 11,000. EB3-P demand is really slowing down movement for EB3-ROW.

 EB3-India &China Movement
EB3-India is currently moving as expected. There is some eventual EB3 to EB2 porting going on at rate of 250 cases per month based on demand data. If this will continue then we can again see some rapid movement for EB3-I in later part of the year, especially in August-September 2012. EB3-China is moving very well with at least 4-6 weeks movement each month. We expect this movement to continue for rest of the year.

You Might Also Like :


OMGC said...

Thanks CM for this analysis! I guess its a positive news that the retrogression will be none to minimum!!!
I have a PD of 1 dec 2010..  last month everybidy said dates will move atleast 6-8 months...
I am totally confused by actual movement and demand data.
Do I still have a chance in callender year 2012? when next fy 2013 quota opens?
I havw to make a decision abt whether to file h1 by year end...
really appreciate ur posts!!

Dando said...

 hi cm
my pd is may 20 2006 phil. do you think i will received my gc in 2012? 

thank you!

Guest said...

Hi CM, appreciate your work here.

You have been certain for long time now about the inevitability of regtrogression. As we have seen thus far, there has been some serious demand destruction b/c of the Great Recession and the number of PERM filings has not translated into filed petitions despite the priority dates moving up so fast.

Given that the latest Visa Bulletin was silent on the topic of retrogresson (whereas previous Bulletins acknowledged this as a possiblity), do you not believe that you may be jumping the gun thinking of retrogression as being inevitable?

Personally, I believe that for the remainder of FY 12, there will be 3-6 months total movement but then dates will stall until FY 2013.

Louise said...

Your always accurate with your prediction CM, well then I missed the boat for FY 2012.. Hopefully 3013... PD Aug. 22, 2000=)

Louise said...

Its EB3 Phil- PD Aug. 22, 2006

Rahul said...

Hi CM,

Initially I was skeptical with your analysis. But now your prediction is converging with the visa movement. I think going forward, your accuracy is only going to improve. So, Congrats for doing this complicated analysis and keeping us enlightened.


Guest said...

Hi all,

It looks 2 people of CP got NVC reciept notices, they look genuine...

one of them is sep 20 2010
and other is 1/20/2011 ( blow was his post)

My PD is 01/20/2011 (EB2), received immigrant visa processing fee notice fee. Is that means my PD will be current in April Visa bulletin.

if it is true at the least those dates should be current for sure with in one year...i hope with in 6 months....

CM you can enlighten us with this, when can we except this date momemts....

Kuku said...

CM, any predictions from our lawyer friend for the coming bulletin?

Guest said...

Thanks a lot for your analysis. My PD is in July 2008 and looking at the trend, I am hoping to get greened by end of this FY.

mr.phx said...

Dear CM,
Need your input and help please. My case is with TSC...My PD is Oct 7, 2007. I became current in Nov 2011 and uscis receipt date is dec 1st, 2011...Received EAD/AP for me and my wife on Feb 11th. My fingerprinting for biometrics was done in Dec last week itself. We never received a biometrics notice for my wife till now...Raised an SR request on Jan 6th after waiting 30 days from receiving 485 receipt from uscis...Received a SR request notice in the mail on Jan 20th saying SR request service is pending .....Still received no biometrics notice for my wife yet....What can i do at this stage for her biometrics as it may delay her GC  and process for her significantly??? CM, PLEASE ADVISE AND COMMENTS FROM ANYONE ARE WELCOME.

Eb2 said...


My priority date is may 23,2008. Filed 485 om feb 1st, we received confirmation notices but priority date in my wife 485 priority date is feb 2nd 2012, i have correct priority date in my 485 receipt. Is this correct? said...

Thank you for your nice predictions.
IS it possible that spillover visas goes to EB3Row?

ms.phx said...

Waiting for your reply..Need your advice if i can take an infopass appointment for fingerprinting for my wife...Thanks.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

OMGC please make sure you will extend your H1B in timely manner. Your dates might get current this year but likelihood is less. FY 2013 looks realistic if retrogression is not extensive.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Please see reply to your earlier comment.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

What you are suggesting here is very much possible just based on demand converted from the total PERM filing but demand will still be little high what we can handle this year. Retrogression depends upon DOS decision depending upon how early in year would Mr O. believe that EB2-IC is chewing up visa numbers left and right that he will need to pull the plug. If something like this does not happen (which may not if USCIS processing time for TSC will still keep slipping) then he may not have to retrogress and can handle such demand at the start of FY 2013.. Lets see what will happen. You may be able to answer this on your own just based on next inventory. Never the less good point raised.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Mr. PHX, Why dont you take an infopass and go and see IO. In such cases if you will request IO, he will print biometrics for her there itself and she can just walk in to complete finger printing. In past many people has been successful using this approach.

Selva said...

My PD is 08/30//2010, can I expect in next bulletin or within this fiscal year?

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Yeah but you will be current by November 2012. FY 2012 ends on September 2012.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Lol ...I am glad at last you are seeing some worth visiting our website... thank you for your acknowledgment.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

NVC Receipts in past has been leading indicator but at same time could be false alarms. In case of EB2-India where dates have moved by so much, at this time NVC will be looking to make sure they have enough cases ready for processing for next year if need be. Usually such receipts are sent 7-8 months in advance assuming certain PD will be current soon. It does not mean those cut-off dates will be current for sure. Since we are seeing such receipts we can say there is some anticipation that such dates could be current in near future. NVC may also getting ready for an instance where DOS had to move dates significantly later in the fiscal year just to consume few visa numbers through CP case if need be. Long answer short, it is less likely it is an indicator for coming months. May be one for Sep 2010 but definitely not for 2011.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Kuku, nothing yet. I will check around 1st week of March.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Do not worry. In many cases wife's receipt will come without PD printed or with current date. This is alright. Her file will always be with yours, nothing to worry about.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Please go ahead. See my earlier reply.

isabela said...

Hi CM, I am currently working here in IL with H1b visa and will expire on sept 16, 2012. My EB3 PD is 10/25/2006,  they say after my visa expires I can still stay for 180 days and so I am hoping that my PD will become current within the 180 days period & then apply for adjustment of status. My Eb3 petitioner is different from my H1b petitioner that's why I'm thinking of not applying for H1b extension and just wait for my PD to become current since PDs are really moving pretty good. What do you think?  Kindly give me some advice regarding my situation please.  Thank you very much.

Post a Comment