Tuesday, March 27, 2012

May 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Tuesday, March 27, 2012 | , , , , , ,

May 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the second bulletin for Q3 - FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for May 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

May 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions
  • EB3- China could advance to 22 March 2005
  • EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 April 2006 (Mostly 22 April 2006. It could just be in borderline for 01 May 2006 if we are lucky).
  • EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
  • EB3-India could advance to 08 September 2002.
  • EB2-India and EB2-China would retrogress to 15th August 2007 in coming bulletin. Now since we have all the demand to satisfy annual quota for this fiscal year, dates will remain stagnant up to July visa bulletin. In August visa bulletin, we may see 3-4 months movement and then in September it will be March 2008, with final resting point for cut-off date at May-June 2008 or more in October-December visa bulletins. We can crunch exact numbers once next inventory data is released .i.e. in May time frame. As of now it seems that FY 2013 will take care of at least first half of 2009 or little more; FY 2014 is the year we are looking for 2010 PDs.
NotePredictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.

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Aq said...

Thank you for the input, couldn't wait for it!! Why is the EB3 ROW movement like that? your Gc calculator says it will take 3 months for EB3 PD June 2006 to have in hand...so this might prolong if the movement is 3 weeks? Is there any chance of big leap?


Thanks for the predictions, but can you please explain your prediction for EB3ROW? As it is the beginning of the quarter, 27% of the annual quota will be released on April 1st, it surely can't all be used up in one month! Also when I look at the recent inventory and demand tables, I fail to see why this movement would be so slow. In fact, even 3 weeks of movement in this category does not make sense to me, I am thinking 5 to 6 weeks. Am I missing something here?

OMGC said...

I am all heart broken! My PD is 30th Nov 2010.  all this movement we thought we would get EA in FY 2012 or early FY 2013!!
This sucks big time CM! Esp for us who can not work without H1B sponsorship!

K.sh said...

thank you CM

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Also want to point out that EB4-China will have cut-off estabilished in this or next month's visa bulletin.

K.sh said...

Is it possible that EB3row will be retrogressed?What is your opinion CM?

Guest said...

Hi CM,

Are you telling anyone in 2010 who missed becoming current will only become current in FY2014 atleast to file for I485 or for all those who already filed for I485 to get the card. My PD is EB2I - Aug 2010. When do you think it will be current to file for AOS.

Rajiv_2059 said...

Hello CM,

So, We are not sure for EB3 Row.My PD is April 26th 2006.Any advice?I am tensed because of HR3012 if it passed than date will be retroactive.


Guest said...


Are you saying PDs come back to 2010 in FY 2014?

K.sh said...

I heard that EB3Row will move at the same pace .do not be worried .

Shahidmateenkhan said...

CM my pd is Row EB3 Feb28, 2007. Should I go for my visa secreeing
renewal or my date will be current before it's expiry

Tempwork2009 said...


Aq said...

 You are so close good luck!!! Please keep the website updated about if they call you this month or next month!

Guest said...

I have 8/2001 PD and applied my 485 in Feb 2012 in EB2-I. Do you think USCIS would be able to allocate me visa before May 1st and approve. Many were saying that there are no visa #s for this year until October 2012 though VB says India/China retrogressed to 8/2007. Thanks..

chardrnm said...

CM my PD is July 19, 2006 for EB3 Philippines when do you think it will be current? I need your advise so I can prepare.

mvj said...

My PD is April 2007 EB2 India . Our case was under internal security review for past 6 months.  It is now with the adjudicating officer since march 2 2012 .  Do you think we have a chance of getting a GC.  Is it true that all the visas for year 2012 are exausted and we have to wait till October 2012 .  Thanks


test said...

Heartbroken? You idiot, you are expecting EAD in 1.5 years? There are thousands of better qualified workers who have much better qualifications that you (PhD in reputed univs) who waited for 5/10 years to get GC. Don't be greedy, you will loose everything.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Visa Bulletin Movement Prediction of State Department During May-July 2012AILA reports that at the AILA conference in Washington at the end of March, Mr. Oppenheim distributes visa movement prediction table to the attendants. The summary is as follows: EB Visas: Movement from April 2012 Visa Bulletin EB-1: Current EB-2: China/India=Retrogress to 08/15/2007 EB-3: ROW=3-5 wks, China=Upto 6 wks, India=Upto 2 wks, Mexico+Philippines=Same as ROW FB Visas: ROW Only - Movement from April 2012 Visa Bulletin FB-1: 4-6 wks FB-2A: 2.6 mos FB-2B: 3-6 wks FB-3: 3-6 wks F-4: 3-5 wks Not too promising news.

From OH Law Firm

Rajiv_2059 said...


As my Priority is  26thApril2006 so i will be current in May than.Your prediction was stating 22April2006.I am little tensed?Can you please give your thoughts?

Thanks for your  help.


guest said...

Just wait and pray for the bulletin to come in your favor. Its one more week left and then go from there. He can just predict rest is upto our luck :(  I am in the same boat just few months ahead of you :(

Rajan said...

Hi CM_USNonImmigrants, thanks for the movement prediction, but you should change on your data (above picture)  if you belive if the movement gonna be advance than your prediction.

Raj Jogam said...

Igot a RFE for Birth certificate.  The lawyers responded to RFE on April 3rd. My PD is novemer 2007. If the dates retrigress befre i get GC, will have to wait till the dates again get current?

Ekarabagli said...

unused f4 numbers can fall-upto f1

pnq2msp said...


My PD is March 2009 and I recently applied for I-485.  Just have got the receipt. Will further things (EAD/AP/Fingerprinting) continue even though dates will retrogress next month? From forums I think EAD/AP will move, but I haven't gotten clear picture on fingerprinting.


Dreadlocks said...

The May bulletin is out. EB3 ROW has moved to May 1st, 2006. According to CM it looks like we got lucky, I prefer to believe God was good to us.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

May Visa Bulletin - http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5692.html

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

As per statements by DOS there seems some hope that dates can move further March 2008-July 2008 at start of FY 2013 in October 2012.
At this point I would not lose hope on movement in August and September 2012. It may be possible that dates will advance little in these two months to reach March 2008. If this will not happen based on huge EB2-ROW-M-P and EB1 demand. We can expect quantum leaps in FY 2013 which could be around January 2009 or more. From the statements from Mr. O, it is very apparent he plans to advance dates rapidly at start of each year and then retrogress it when EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P demand becomes large. Though he might not need to do it based on actual available demand he will have until May 2010 but he (and USCIS) may have found this as more effective way of handling load compared to previous years when work load could be large at the end of the year near summer. Generally USCIS has seen low EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P demand in Q1 and Q2. Again I will take every thing with grain of salt as Mr O's mind fickles a lot and he may do things differently than he has promised previously.



to the rapid forward movement of the cut-off date, demand for China and
India Employment Second preference numbers has
increased dramatically during recent months, and
at a much faster rate than had been expected.  Therefore, it has been
to retrogress that cut-off date to August 15,
2007 in an attempt to hold number use within the annual limit while
availability for those countries that have not
yet reached their per-country limit.  Notices were included in the
January, and February Visa Bulletins alerting
readers to the possibility of such a retrogression.  While corrective
has become necessary earlier than was
anticipated based on the information available at the time cut-off dates
were determined,
it is hoped that readers are not caught off
guard by this retrogression. Should additional information regarding potential demand become available, it may be necessary to take additional corrective
action at any time.  Every effort will
be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference
cut-off date to the previously announced
April date of May 1, 2010.  This will be done as
quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect
1, 2012.  It will not be possible to speculate
on the cut-off date which may apply at that time until late summer.   USCIS has indicated that it will continue accepting China and India Employment Second preference I-485 filings based on the
originally announced April cut-off date.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

 Employment Second:

Worldwide: Potential need for cut-off date to be established

China and India: Potentially “Unavailable”

About potential need for cut-off date for EB2-ROW-M-P, I do not think that will happen. Mr. O. said that about EB4-China as well. At times he may be overreacting to numbers presented by USCIS which may change as time will go on.

About EB2-IC becoming 'U' by moving dates to 15 August 2007, he has already done that in some sense but this could happen if demand for porting increases. Unless until then there is no reason for such action. I am still hopeful about some movement around August and September. This may change depending upon numbers in June Inventory.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

This is good news that EB3-ROW maintained its three months movement on.

Openaccount said...


How many GC do you think are used by EB2IC this year. If EB2 used about 40 k then EB2IC may have used easily about 26K

Aq said...

Congrats Rajiv!!! You are in this bulletin. Please keep us updated on how fast or slow you get the GC!

EB3_PH said...

any predictions of EB3- PHILIPPINES? PD is 22 July 2007

Rajiv_2059 said...

Hello CM,

I PD is 26th April ROW on EB3 and i am going to be current from may.Can you please give an idea how long it takes to get the approval in general case?

Thanks for you help.Appreciate it.


Rajiv_2059 said...

Thanks Aq!! Sure I will keep you posted, but would like to know how long it take to get the 485 approval in general?


Aq said...

I think they say its within 30 days and if you don't hear a response within 30 days you should go through info pass appointment. keep a lawyer handy if you don't hear within 30 days.

Fervilman71 said...

Hi everyone! just want to ask how and where will i get my priority date? Have a receipt from USCIS which is LIN-06-164- . does ths mean 2006 april 16

EB2_Dec07 said...

Dear CM , my PD is Dec 2007 Eb2 Ind ...Derivative with Primary 485 approved ..and awaiting my 485 approval ...still under initial review..does it mean it is pre-adjudicated and when do you predict Dec 07 cases will be approved .

Junior said...

Hi, my PD is EB3 Nepal May 6th 2006. The PD that  was released today was May 1st 2006. Does this mean my PD is current or I have to wait one more month. Please refer to this article pulled from Trave state.gov website.

article copy and paste....
Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled to allotment of a visa
number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since VO groups demand
for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh of a month are grouped
under the 1st, the eighth through the fourteenth under the 8th, etc.)

Anon said...

 No you are not Current. Your PD must be earlier than the Cut Off Date.

The last date that is Current is April 30, 2006.

The first date that is not Current is the May 1, 2006.

Like the 1st, the group  of 1st to 7th would all become Current when the Cut Off Date moves to or beyond May 8, 2006.

Renato said...

 Hi, I've got confused and excited at the same time. You are saying that EB3 Row could reach 2008 in the beginning of FY2013? Why is that jump? My PD is August 2007 EB3 Row, should I expect to be current by next year? Can't wait...

Anonymous said...

Can you explain little bit ?
Thank you

K Alishahbazi said...

with this movement 3 to 5 weeks for EB3Row ,do you think that i will be current till the end of 2012 .My pd is 19th of October 2006.
thank you

Dexona said...

I got my EAD, with PD being July 2009 on EB2 India, When can i expect July 2009 becoming current and can I change jobs after 180 days and not worry abount h1B anymore?

Anonymous said...

My eb3-phil application is on current status already. I received the notice for my interview which is going to be next month. However, the agency that is handling my case said we have to postpone our interview because they are unable to issue job order. They gave me an option to look for another employer-sponsor to continue my case. The new sponsor will file a new I140 again and request to recapture my old PD.
My question is if is postpone my interview date and reschedule it later this year until i find a new sponsor, will i be affected if in between those dates it retrogresses again.?? Does that mean i need to wait again until my pd becomes current? Or is there a visa number set for me already ? And that i will not be affected of any retrogression? Pls advice. Thank u

RNdoll said...

I have EB3 phil application. My priority date is on  current status and received the notice of my interview date from National Visa Center which is going to be on May 16, 2012.

The  agency) which is handling my case has emailed me recently that at present they could not release  new job offers from hospitals due to a slow down on work orders.  They have likewise given me the option  to look for a replacement employer-sponsor to take over and continue my case  considering that they do not have a timeframe as to when they will be able to release new job offer.
They also advice me to postpone my interview date.

If i postpone my interview.. And it retrogresses again.. Will i still be affected? Is there visa number given to me already at this point in time?

Please advice.

Thank you

Fervilman71 said...

Dear CM,

Just inquiring as to my status. The situation is this, the lawyer who processesed my application is no longer with the law firm. and could not be contacted at the moment at he is presently a judge now. My job offer with the hospital is still there. Do i still need to contact and need this lawyer before i will be given an interview sched by the NVC? My correspondence with the NVC is my present address, thus they will send my schedule once current, to my address.

Guest said...

 try this agency... SEAPCI

JP said...

Hi CM,

Thank you for your blog. I always check your website coz i found your predictions most accurate compare to other websites.
I would like to ask your opinion about my case. I'm an eb3 Philippines and my PD is May 16, 2006.  My EAD will expire on Sept 2012. I was adviced by my lawyer to re-file for EAD extension. I'am thinking not to do it to save some money. I'am hoping that my PD will become current on the next bulletin. Do you think that's a good idea. Thank you for your time.

K Alishahbazi said...

Where are you CM
Do you have any prediction for June visa bulletin ?Is there any chance for EB3 ROW to have leap forward movement at the end of this Fiscal year?

Rahul Gupta said...

Hi CM, My Priority date is Oct 2006 EB2 and I have applied for I-485 in Sept 2011. My application was picked for Personal Interview and just got back frm Interview at local immg. office. It went well but the IO said that no visas are available this time and hence I will have to wait till start of next fiscal year. Does that mean now I have to wait till Oct 2012 or are their any chances that some visa numbers will be available coz of spillover ?

nakalimutang NARS said...

RNdoll, im ralf and im from cebu,  i have the same problem, i think my employer could not give me a job offer. im expecting to be current on may or june visa bulletin. i really want to talk to you. pls txt me in this number 09213014000. hope to hear from you soon.

guest said...

Dear CM
what happens if my PD becomes current and my employer would no longer offer the job?  im on EB3  and expecting to be current on may or june visa bulletin.  need help. tnx

Anonymous said...

 He is referring to EB2I-C since it retrogressed to Aug. 15, 2007, this is not about EB3row, don't be excited.

Ananymous said...

this bolg is not useful anymore. Its not updated as often it used to be.

Fervilman71 said...

to Rajiv,

you have been current this may visa bulletin,. did you received a scheduled visa interview? just want to know how many weeks i will expect the letter when i get current in june VB.


guest said...

Hi CM.Whats the forecast for June 2012 Visa Bulletin .Hope 5 weeks movement would be applied to E3P

har_ram said...

Hi CM,

Our PD was Oct 2007. We received our EAD/AP in Jan and my husband's GC came thru in Feb. However mine went into RFE for Marriage evidence and our lawyers filed the RFE on Mar 22nd. Since that day status has been RFE response review. With two weeks remaining before the PD retrogresses to Aug 2007, what do you think will happen to my case? When should I expect to receive my GC?

Why_Zee said...

What does this indicate (extract from May2012 visa bulletin):
 "Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the previously announced April date of May 1, 2010. This will be done as quickly as possible under the FY-2013 annual limits, which take effect October 1, 2012"

CM-Does that mean EB2-I will jump back to May 2010 in Oct-2012? 

HopingSince2007toGreen said...

 What about June Visa bulletin prediction ?

Guest said...

They never reply the answer. I Guess it gonna published whenever CM Like. this is just a freewebsite and they play here when they like. so do not trust them as a real helpful guy. You will probably not gonna get responce even they post a new prediction.

Dan said...

Yes guest, check with USCIS, you are paying them  application fee, you might find them very helpful  :-)

K Alishahbazi said...

I have a problem with my ds 230 on 10/2007 we asked to send ds230 to NVC and because of retrogression they sent our ds230 back to our agency and on 4/2008 again the Nvc asked us to send our ds230 .I wonder if they process both of ds230 or the last one .because i made a mistake in the first one .I hope the NVC assess the last one .What is your opinion?

Why_zee said...

If your application is not approved by then, you'll have to wait until Oct 2007 is current, which hopefully should happen in Oct 2012.

Why_zee said...

The date on your I-140 approval paper is your priority date

Why_zee said...

CM where are you? Haven't heard from you for past 3 weeks!

Guest said...

Hi. My PD is Sep 26 '07 EB2I. My i-485 application was received by NSC on 25th Nov and I got my EAD with AP in Jan. My Fingerprinting was done in Feb and then the dates retrogressed in the April bulletin. Is there any hope to get my GC this year?

crispinbasilio said...

Hi CM,

When can we have your June 2012 visa bulletin predictions? It's only a week to go until showtime. Can you post it asap so we can know our probable status for the coming bulletin?

crispinbasilio said...

Thank you friend!

krishna said...

Hello CM
I am going for visa stamping in june last week in india.  I have a valid H1B visa till October 2012. By chance if I dont get visa or if i get 221g form, can I come back with my valid visa? or visa officer can cancel my existing visa too?please answer ASAP.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM,

I'm from Mexico applying on EB2 and as of today my category is retrogress to Jan 2009, you think in October 2012 my category will be current?


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