October 2011 Visa Bulletin which is the first Visa Bulletin for the current FY 2012 was released on Friday. The major surprise for the October visa bulletin was the 3 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories. This movement came as surprise for many people. DOS took this step to gauge demand for FY 2012 as cut-off dates for EB2-IC is now reaching the latest PD of July 2007 that was ever current. EB3 categories advanced as expected, as of now there is no deviation from our estimation. Family Based category also saw some interesting movement.Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
- EB-1 remains current across the board.
- EB-2 saw some interesting movement.: EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current while EB-2 China and EB-2 India moved to July 15, 2007.
- EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by two (2) weeks to December 08 , 2005, EB-3 China moves forward by three (3) weeks to August 08, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by one (1) week to July 15, 2002.
- The “other worker” category remains unchanged at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by six (6) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to September 15, 2005. It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to June 8, 2002
Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:- FB1 moves forward (finally!). FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by six (6) weeks to June 15, 2004. FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to March 22, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by a little over two (2) months to January 8, 1997.
- FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to January 8, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by three (3) weeks to October 15, 2008.
- FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to July 15, 2003. FB2B Mexico moves forward by three (3) weeks to November 22, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to May 1, 2001.
VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
Worldwide dates:
F1: three to six weeksF2A:three to six weeks
F2B:one to two weeks
F3: one to two weeks
F4: up to one month
Please be advised that the above date ranges are only estimates for the next few months, and are subject to fluctuations in demand.
EB Categories
Employment First: Current
Employment Second:
Worldwide: CurrentChina and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.
Philippines: Current
Employment Third:
Worldwide: up to one monthChina: one to three weeks
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: up to one month
Philippines: up to one month
Employment Fifth: Current
Please be advised that the above date ranges are only estimates for the next few months, and are subject to fluctuations in demand. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.
EB2-India & China Movement
It is very apparent from the statement in Visa Bulletin that this unexpected movement for EB2-IC category is to allow intake of new demand in order to keep cases already pre-adjudicated and documentarily qualified for next spillover season in FY 2012. CP demand for this category is minimal (around 2-5%) and majority of approval usually comes from those approved at USCIS. Current movement of 3 months would make atleast 6164 already pending applicants current for EB2-IC category, and this at the same time will bring in lot of applications from those who missed their filing during July 2007 fiasco (PWMBs). Estimated PWMBs to apply after October 2011 could be anywhere from 3500-4000 (including dependents).
Visa Bulletin mentions "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year". We expect dates to progress or stand still atleast for Q1 FY 2012 before it could retrogress in Q2 FY 2012 if needed. Mr. Oppenheim has followed similar steps last year for Family Based category before he retrogressed that category in January 2011.
We understand that this whole movement is to gauge the demand and to keep cases ready for approval, but what's ambiguous to everyone is how USCIS/DOS is expecting to approve these many cases that are made current. In addition to those now ready to be approved, we have PWMBs who have filed in May-August 2011, that are expected to become documentarily qualified in Q1 FY 2012. PWMBs who will file on and after October 2011 are not expected to become documentarily qualified until Q2 FY 2012.
Million dollar question is how do we expect visa numbers to become available to approve these cases? EB2- India and China only have 2803 per country limit. In addition, there are restrictions on number of visas that can be used each quarter from the annual limit. Only way we see these cases to get approved is through quarterly spillover. Below we have done quick calculations to estimate EB1 and EB2-ROW demand that could become documentarily qualified in Q4 FY 2011 or early Q1 FY 2012. If similar trend will continues, we expect similar demand to come in each month for Q1 FY 2012 even after few approvals in Q4 FY 2011.
Using EB1 Statistics for I-140 Approval and Denial for FY 2010 and FY 2011 and current trend in I-140 approvals and receipts from USCIS dashboard, estimated I-140 approval for EB1 in last quarter or early Q1 FY 2012 can be anywhere around 3059.
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From Q3 PERM approvals, we can also estimate what EB2-ROW demand will be. Around 3189 EB2-ROW PERMs were approved in Q3 FY 2011, that are expected to become documentarily qualified on I-140 approval during Q4 FY 2011 and Q1 FY 2012.
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Looking at above table, we can expect anything around 4425 as quarterly spillover which in addition of 1400 EB2-IC quota can allow atleast 5825 approvals. Based on this it is very unlikely that all those who became current in October 2011 visa bulletin can expect approvals in October. Approvals will come slowly but please do not be surprised if few of your SR request would come back with tag "waiting for visa numbers". It is difficult to guess how USCIS will handle approvals but it is very likely that those becoming documentarily qualified through June-July filings may see approvals before those who became current in October VB. This way when DOS will ever retrogress in Q2 FY2012, DOS will not have to retrogress dates by lot . This would help them keep their books look clean. Use of available visa numbers will be at USCIS/DOS discretion and policy.Time will tell. In past some of the October VB approvals also came from unused visa numbers from last fiscal year.
Finally, what would be enough demand for Mr Oppenheim to consider retrogression of EB2-IC? This totally depend upon DOS. Best guess would be anywhere from November 2007-March 2008 (18000-30000 new demand). We still expect PD November 2007 to receive GC for sure in FY 2012. We believe it will take long time for all new PWMBs and post July 2007 filings to become documentarily qualified and get counted towards monthly demand data. As per current visa bulletin, it seems this movement will continue for some time, atleast until January-February 2012 before we can see retrogression. Again, with DOS all is at will
The last two bulletins have stunned us in both ways!
I guess, the normal laws of mathematics don't apply when it comes to predicting the EB2IC movement.
I would still dare to ask if you see Aug 9th 2007 EB2I getting current in the Nov bulletin.
Great analysis as usual. Why cannot USCIS/DOS gage the EB2I demand from approved I 140s. It should give them good demand data beyond July 2007, right? Am i missing anything obvious?
my PD is Dec 31, 2007, any thoughts on it?
thanks,
Do you think PD of 27th July would become current in Nov bulletin? I know my case has been preadjuticated. When should I expect GC?
Thanks.
Appreciate your quick post as always in this unpredictable world.
Is there going to be new update to the GC calculator based on new info? What is the comment again for Sep 19 2007 EB2C to become current?
Thank you.
EB2C
Thanks
kabayan
what do u think about July 31st 2007 PD EB-India
Will i become current in November
My PD is April 15th 2007 EB2 India. filed the i-485 and am currently on ead. Will I get my GC in October or will the dates retrogress
My guess based on last year FB category movement suggests that there will be 2-3 month each bulletin before dates may retrogress. It is a guess and reality may vary based on the side Mr O. will wake up on the day of VB determination. ;)
I am hoping that your PD to become current before it retrogress. But we are not sure what would be enough demand for DOS to pull the plug.
I am hoping next bulletin to be around Aug 15, 2007 but you never know. Hopefully you will be current in 2 months.
This blog is awesome. I am very new to GC chase and these posts help me understand the process.
I had a quick question. The latest VB says the dates may retrogress.
Is it possible that the dates wont actually retrogress but stop at a perticuar month for several next vbs?
And if they do retrogress how much max can they retrogress? will tehy again fall below july 07?
Please throw some ligt on this!
thanks.
My PD is Jan 2009 - EB2-India, My H1B is completed 6 Years and the current company will be closed within 6 months. At this situation, I can be in US for the next 6 months, do you think PD will reach Jan 2009 within 6 months?
My only positive hope is, from Sep 07 to Jan 09 applications counts are around 1200 based on USCIS i485 pending inventory. Please, kindly answer to my question, so that i can decide that i can be in US or not.
Can you please let me know this pdf sheet (
All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers and Field Offices as of June 201) included PWMB's?
Based on what we saw for FB category, it can retrogress as bad as December 2006 and then move slowly back to July 2007 in few VB. It all depends upon PD of last man not eligible for visa numbers.
Guest answered your question well. 1200 is the number only till July 2007 because that was last cut-off date that was ever current for EB2-I. There are thousands of people still waiting to file their I-485 with PDs after July 2007.
You have been doing excellent work, and all wishes and we all pray for your long health, happy life.
How long it usually takes to a case to be documentarily qualified once 485 applied ? If my PD doesn't become current(for some weird reasons) until end of Q2, would I still be able to 'documetarily qualified' and get a spillover visa number in FY2012 ?
Thanks for your brilliant work on this blog..
Do you see any chance that the dates will progress till June 2008 before they retrogress? I am asking this as we saw several posts during June-Aug 2011 where cases with June 2008 were asked to pay the VB(CP cases). I read somewhere that usually it takes about 8 months to get the date current once you recieve the letter to pay the visa fees.
Your thoughts please.
VJ
Any chances of March 2008 EB-2I becoming current this year for I-485 filing?
I also read somewhere that a Bill was introduced to remove per country limit. First, do you happen ot know if it is true? if yes, what will be the implications?
Thank YOU!!
My PD has become current in October Bulletin. I will try to send all docs to USCIS by October 1. My question is, Is date valid till end of October?? or till October 1??.
I will become current in october 2011. If i file for 485 in Oct when can we expect GC in normal circumstances.
Annual Limit can be seen here --> http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf
My PD is EB2-India Mar 2007 and applied for I485 on 9th Sept 2011. When do you think I can receive my GC?
_____ I got an advice from an Immigration Attorney, that i can file h1 transfer (even completing 6 years) along with approved 140 to get 3 years extension_____ also can take over existing PD, but the new employer has to file PERM & 140 again... Here the previous employer SHOULD NOT revoke my 140....
Here you can check approved 140's
http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html
we have only 2803 visas Year 2012. Again dates will not go based on this count only, some spill over or govt immigration reform. Already US economy is in double dip, and Europe's are in another trouble.
Will wait for a while, if nothing happen, then go back to the place, where we came from. No more "American Dream"
___PAIN IN THE ASS__
My pd is Oct 18, 2007 EB2 India. When will my pd become current.
Thanks
Krishna
a) Nov VB --> Atleast 15th Aug 2007 - 2 months
b) Dec VB - more 2 months
c) Jan VB - Depending upon demand retrogress or additional month or two.
d) Feb VB - Retrogression.
It all depends how much Mr. O wants to gauge the demand for next FY 2012. If he wants to fdo everything in one shot then it will be as outlined above else it may be in 2 steps movement, retrogression and one more movement in April 2012.
So far Sep 2008 can be current in 2-2.5 years and GC in 3 years.
Your PD March 2008 has a bleak (30%) possibility to become current this fiscal year. If it will become current it will either be in Jan or then close to spillover season when dates will be move ahead if demand is less than available visas. IN that case CP cases are only hope to use some visa numbers and we know from last year that some of these PDs received visa bill last year.
With new company you can use AC21 to transfer H1B visa and extend it for 3 years. Good Luck.
My PD May 2009,EB 2 I. Can there be any chance for me this year.
I was unfortunately booked in a retail theft case ( due to nonbilling of an item by the checkout person ) and had to attend court , hired a lawyer and the case got DISMISSED without any problem.Now my question is , is this going to affect my GC processing as my PD is nearing. Please suggest me. Thank you.
My PD is May 2nd, 2007 EB - 2 India. ven though I am current as per October VB can retrogression impact me?
If dates retrogress to before May, 2007 will I no longer be current?
Thanks,
RP
My PD is July 27, 2007 and I've already filed my I-485 in August 2007. Can you please let me know whether there is any possibility of getting the greencard before December 2011?
My PD is Dec 2007. I am in EB2 China category, I have a new job offer that I want to take, would it be wise to switch job now that I am so close to being current? Also, if my priority date become current while the new company is filling my PERM and I140, can I still retain my Dec2007 priority date once the PERM and I140 is approved with the new company?
My PD is Apr. 2007, filed I485 on July, 2007 (EB2), I saw my case has a Last-Update-Date (LUD) on Aug. 2010, but the status is still Initial Review. Do you know normally what the LUD means, is it possible that my case got preadjudicated? I did address change and EAD renew before that LUD.
Thank you very much. You are so kind.
Prior to 1/1/2008, 4875 cases and
Prior to 1/1/2011, 5000 cases,
Where did that 125 cases come from between 2008 and 2011?
It is a bit perplexing because the EB2 cut-off dates never advanced to beyond 2007.
My company may be acquired or merged this year.
I have my I-140 approved and PD is 09-NOV-07. I am from EB2-I category. I want to know what impact this merger/acquisition can have on my i-1485 ( not yet filed.)?
thanks
VG
Please answer both the questions posted in my thread.
thanks
VG
_______________
09/15/2011: FY 2011 Employment-Based Visa Numbers Exhausted as of 09/15/2011 and No EB Visa Number Will be Authorized to USCIS Until 10/03/2011
AILA has reported that the State Department notified today the USCIS that no EB visa numbers would be authorized effective today because all the FY-2011 Employment Based visa numbers have been exhausted. The visa numbers will thus start being authorized beginning from 10/03/2011, the first business day of October when the October Visa Bulletin visa cut-off takes effect. Accordingly, the USCIS office will not be able to ask the EB visa number authorization to the State Deparment from today and until October 3, 2011. They will start authorizing visa number request by the USCIS offices beginning from October 3, 2011 covering all the eligible cases which had been entered into the pending Demand from 09/15/2011 through 09/30/2011 and those within the October cut-off date.
What does this mean? Those EB cases which could have been completed adjudicated and approved during the next 15 days (the pending Demand data for the FY 2011 between 09/15/2011 and 09/30/2011) will experience a little bit of delay in obtaining visa number allocation for them until after October 1, 2011. There is no information available about what the September 2011 EB 485 Demand Data was transmittted to the Visa Services by the USCIS.
___________________________
Expect no approvalas for next 15 days. We will see approval starting October 03, first working Monday for month of October. Good Luck. This also tells you that approvals for October VB movement will come from FY 2012 ( which should be the case in reality).
Thanks for this update. Do you think this will effect the EB2I forward movement in the Nov bulletin?
Whoever not getting GC within next two weeks(they r already current in Sep bulliten), those people will fall into 2012 Quota, right, if that is the case whoever are current in October bulliten they are not going to get GC's right. those numbers also we need to add 2012 quota, correct.? mine is May 10th 2007, applied I-485 in July 2007. Am i get the GC in October.
Is the I-140 does NOT have to be revoked really true? I have read both kind of statements on different forums. It doesn't seem clear anyone really knows. AC21 can be used only if I485 is filed and pending for 6 months, right?
I think we will see no forward movement in November 2011 VB for EB2 category. my PD is August 1st 2007, When will my pd become current?
Thanks MPS
This is a superb analysis and thanks for helping the whole anxious immigrant community.Based on the review you provided,whats your take on retrogression and to how far back?My PD is july 27th 2007 EB2,looking at this new do i stand a chance in next few months or long wait still?
Thanks,
Bob
Anyone who can help feel free to respond
I have been avid reader of your comments and your explanation of visa bulletin movements. My PD is July 2007, EB2 India and would be current in October per October visa bulletin dates. I also came to know lack of visa numbers for applicants who will be current in October bulletin. My question is will the wait time grow and if by how much before we get green card in hand?
Looking forward for your reply.
Best Regards
PBTEXAS
Thanks for the leading and organizing the complex topic for Eb2 IC folks. Sorry to ask you the same question again :
What is the best estimate for April 16th 2008 PD EB I?
I know you are being cautious and conservative sometimes, I am looking for best estimate to get EAD.
Thanks Much
My priority date is APR 26, 2006 in worldwide EB3 category. When do you think, I will be current?
Thanks.
If we will think that is the thinking process for Mr. O at DOS, he would follow something like FB for this year purely on basis of trial and error. Current date movement for October VB means that they will get 6000 new cases ready to be approved apart from PWMBs. Now DOS can easily accommodate or approve these many visa numbers just based on EB2-IC quota. Question is when DOS will think achieved demand is enough demand for this FY 2011. It can take them at least 3-4 months just to qualify PWMBs from October VB. Add one month for those who will be current in successive VBs after October. So one schools of thought tell you that they may not have to retrogress dates until Q2 FY 2011 or they can very well decide to stop the VB movement after each VB for a month and then gauge the demand and then move it in alternative months .
Other thing that can happen is that USCIS can inform DOS the demand just based on received applications for EB2-IC for October, November and December. DOS can use this data to ball park demand and retrogress the dates. These cases will eventually add to the demand data as time will progress.
Third scenario is DOS will do what they did for FB category move dates for each VB by 2-3 months until Q1 and then retrogress.
I personally believe first scenario will be best. That way they will progress dates slowly but it will not overwhelm USCIS through lot of Service requests and congressional enquiry and as dates will progress slowly, DOS can get hold of quarterly spillover and approve cases as they will come. This way DOS can use first and second quarterly spillovers judiciously. 8000 current EB2-IC demand can be easily handled without retrogression by DOS if movement is managed strategically. Only worry for continuous movement in Q1 is USCIS getting bugged by congressional inquiries and service requests and thus pressing DOS to retrogress dates.
It is difficult to predict maximum or minimum movements until Q1 2012 but I think anyone upto December 2007—March 2008 can get chance to file green card (or EAD/AP) and those with PDs upto November 2007 can receive green card this FY 2012.
In case new company will file new PERM and I-140, you can definitely retain your PD and use it to get green card if dates are current for your PD then.
Just another Q !
There was no arrest & no fingerprinting ,no photograph when the cop gave the ticket & asked to present in court .Judge stated deferred prosecution asked to do community service & after that i was given the letter as NON SUIT and told that its dismissed. Later i got it expunged.Please guide me ! Thank u once again.
Thanks for your support; your information is very helpful.
My case is, I have approved PERM and I-140 application with Company A under EB2 category. Company B acquired company A (completely), and I am continuing work for company B. My PD would become current in next visa bulletin.
Will it be OK to file I-485 with my existing PERM and I-140 of company A since Company A is acquired by Company B? or Do I need to apply PERM and I-140 again with Company B?
FYI – Tax id is different because company B acquired Company A completely.
Please advise me, my priority date would become current soon.
My PD is June 09,2008 in EB2I. Can i atleast get a chance to file (EAD/AP) before feb 2013 ?? Appreciate your help to this community.
Thanks for your valuable insight.
My PB is Dec 08 2007, EB2, India. What would be a fair estimate for me to become current. I am trying to plan full time job around mid 2012. Is this realistic?
Thanks, appreciate your time and help.
Sunny
Appreciate you efforts in giving us a platform to see the recent and very clear updates on this very complicated topic.I have been a reader for some time now and always like your analysis.
Most questions get answered just be reading your analysis and comments posted here.Didn't see someone asking this question so thought of putting it here.
Once the queue gets cleared for Aug 2007, how do you see EB2IC dates movement afterwards? Heard that major roadblock is till Aug 2007 and then dates may move little faster afterwards. Do you see this rumor/observation can be backed by your data analysis?
My heartly congratulations to all those guys who are current now for getting out of this uncertainty/frustrated time.
Kashi,
EB2I, Sep,2008
In any case I am not optimistic about people receiving green card in FY 2012 with PD beyond Jan 2008, realistic is November - December 2007.
You have been doing excellent work, and all wishes and we all pray for your long health, happy life.
EAD anytime from December 2012 to June 2012. GC around November - March 2013. CP will give you GC as soon as your PD is current as long as you documentary qualified at NVC by then. with CP you will not receive EAD.
Refering to post below,
It is good to know that EAD can come sooner... My PD is nov 2010 and I think it will be ages before I get GC. But if I can get an EAD sooner may be 3 more years, that will be gr8! crossing my fingers.. :( sick of sitting at home doing nothing!
omgc!
It seems that no. of applicants in EB2 I in 2008,2009 onwards has been decreasing significantly and is there any chance for the moment to be faster ,if my PD in 2009 can i expect my EAD sooner than as u mentioned previously.
Thank u for all the support.
Based on the current visa bulletin movements, is it possible for EB-2 India priority dates to move beyond Aug 2008?. My PD is Aug 26,2008. Any chance of me getting a EAD atleast for the day?
Thanks,
Ram