October 2011 Visa Bulletin which is the first Visa Bulletin for the current FY 2012 was released on Friday. The major surprise for the October visa bulletin was the 3 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories. This movement came as surprise for many people. DOS took this step to gauge demand for FY 2012 as cut-off dates for EB2-IC is now reaching the latest PD of July 2007 that was ever current. EB3 categories advanced as expected, as of now there is no deviation from our estimation. Family Based category also saw some interesting movement.Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
- EB-1 remains current across the board.
- EB-2 saw some interesting movement.: EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current while EB-2 China and EB-2 India moved to July 15, 2007.
- EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by two (2) weeks to December 08 , 2005, EB-3 China moves forward by three (3) weeks to August 08, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by one (1) week to July 15, 2002.
- The “other worker” category remains unchanged at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by six (6) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to September 15, 2005. It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to June 8, 2002
Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:- FB1 moves forward (finally!). FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by six (6) weeks to June 15, 2004. FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to March 22, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by a little over two (2) months to January 8, 1997.
- FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to January 8, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by three (3) weeks to October 15, 2008.
- FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to July 15, 2003. FB2B Mexico moves forward by three (3) weeks to November 22, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to May 1, 2001.
VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
Worldwide dates:
F1: three to six weeksF2A:three to six weeks
F2B:one to two weeks
F3: one to two weeks
F4: up to one month
Please be advised that the above date ranges are only estimates for the next few months, and are subject to fluctuations in demand.
EB Categories
Employment First: Current
Employment Second:
Worldwide: CurrentChina and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.
Philippines: Current
Employment Third:
Worldwide: up to one monthChina: one to three weeks
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: up to one month
Philippines: up to one month
Employment Fifth: Current
Please be advised that the above date ranges are only estimates for the next few months, and are subject to fluctuations in demand. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.
EB2-India & China Movement
It is very apparent from the statement in Visa Bulletin that this unexpected movement for EB2-IC category is to allow intake of new demand in order to keep cases already pre-adjudicated and documentarily qualified for next spillover season in FY 2012. CP demand for this category is minimal (around 2-5%) and majority of approval usually comes from those approved at USCIS. Current movement of 3 months would make atleast 6164 already pending applicants current for EB2-IC category, and this at the same time will bring in lot of applications from those who missed their filing during July 2007 fiasco (PWMBs). Estimated PWMBs to apply after October 2011 could be anywhere from 3500-4000 (including dependents).
Visa Bulletin mentions "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year". We expect dates to progress or stand still atleast for Q1 FY 2012 before it could retrogress in Q2 FY 2012 if needed. Mr. Oppenheim has followed similar steps last year for Family Based category before he retrogressed that category in January 2011.
We understand that this whole movement is to gauge the demand and to keep cases ready for approval, but what's ambiguous to everyone is how USCIS/DOS is expecting to approve these many cases that are made current. In addition to those now ready to be approved, we have PWMBs who have filed in May-August 2011, that are expected to become documentarily qualified in Q1 FY 2012. PWMBs who will file on and after October 2011 are not expected to become documentarily qualified until Q2 FY 2012.
Million dollar question is how do we expect visa numbers to become available to approve these cases? EB2- India and China only have 2803 per country limit. In addition, there are restrictions on number of visas that can be used each quarter from the annual limit. Only way we see these cases to get approved is through quarterly spillover. Below we have done quick calculations to estimate EB1 and EB2-ROW demand that could become documentarily qualified in Q4 FY 2011 or early Q1 FY 2012. If similar trend will continues, we expect similar demand to come in each month for Q1 FY 2012 even after few approvals in Q4 FY 2011.
Using EB1 Statistics for I-140 Approval and Denial for FY 2010 and FY 2011 and current trend in I-140 approvals and receipts from USCIS dashboard, estimated I-140 approval for EB1 in last quarter or early Q1 FY 2012 can be anywhere around 3059.
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From Q3 PERM approvals, we can also estimate what EB2-ROW demand will be. Around 3189 EB2-ROW PERMs were approved in Q3 FY 2011, that are expected to become documentarily qualified on I-140 approval during Q4 FY 2011 and Q1 FY 2012.
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Looking at above table, we can expect anything around 4425 as quarterly spillover which in addition of 1400 EB2-IC quota can allow atleast 5825 approvals. Based on this it is very unlikely that all those who became current in October 2011 visa bulletin can expect approvals in October. Approvals will come slowly but please do not be surprised if few of your SR request would come back with tag "waiting for visa numbers". It is difficult to guess how USCIS will handle approvals but it is very likely that those becoming documentarily qualified through June-July filings may see approvals before those who became current in October VB. This way when DOS will ever retrogress in Q2 FY2012, DOS will not have to retrogress dates by lot . This would help them keep their books look clean. Use of available visa numbers will be at USCIS/DOS discretion and policy.Time will tell. In past some of the October VB approvals also came from unused visa numbers from last fiscal year.
Finally, what would be enough demand for Mr Oppenheim to consider retrogression of EB2-IC? This totally depend upon DOS. Best guess would be anywhere from November 2007-March 2008 (18000-30000 new demand). We still expect PD November 2007 to receive GC for sure in FY 2012. We believe it will take long time for all new PWMBs and post July 2007 filings to become documentarily qualified and get counted towards monthly demand data. As per current visa bulletin, it seems this movement will continue for some time, atleast until January-February 2012 before we can see retrogression. Again, with DOS all is at will
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154 comments:
Hi CM,
The last two bulletins have stunned us in both ways!
I guess, the normal laws of mathematics don't apply when it comes to predicting the EB2IC movement.
I would still dare to ask if you see Aug 9th 2007 EB2I getting current in the Nov bulletin.
CM,
Great analysis as usual. Why cannot USCIS/DOS gage the EB2I demand from approved I 140s. It should give them good demand data beyond July 2007, right? Am i missing anything obvious?
my PD is Dec 31, 2007, any thoughts on it?
thanks,
Hello CM,
Do you think PD of 27th July would become current in Nov bulletin? I know my case has been preadjuticated. When should I expect GC?
Thanks.
Dear CM:
Appreciate your quick post as always in this unpredictable world.
Is there going to be new update to the GC calculator based on new info? What is the comment again for Sep 19 2007 EB2C to become current?
Thank you.
EB2C
CM- I'm EB2I PD May 21, 07'. I'm having EAD and AP since 07'. Do you think the latest movement will have a visa number available for my date to give a GC?
Thanks
Hi, My pd is july 23, 07. when should i expect i485 approval.
Hi CM. my pd is march 2009 eb3phil. according to the calc. it will be current 5 years and 8 months from now. do we need to adjust the time frame on waiting? thnks a lot!
kabayan
Cm
what do u think about July 31st 2007 PD EB-India
Will i become current in November
Great Analysys : Kudos CM
Hi CM
My PD is April 15th 2007 EB2 India. filed the i-485 and am currently on ead. Will I get my GC in October or will the dates retrogress
Hello CM, My PD is 3rd Dec 2008. Based on your calculations, can you please let me know when visa numbers will be available for filing I-485? My labor and I140 are approved. Appreciate your reply and hardwork put in on the calculations of visa numbers?
PD Dec 4 2007 Ind , please let me know when will I be able to file 485 and when I might get GC ? Thanks
As usual, good analysis. Appreciate your effort and skills, keep up good work and God bless you. Thanks CM.
I agree EB2-IC movement is highly dynamic and depends upon available visas and DOS/USCIS strategy, but that doesn't mean any movement cannot be backed with available supply. It is simple supply/demand logistics, monthly allocations gets difficult due to unavailability of large data.
My guess based on last year FB category movement suggests that there will be 2-3 month each bulletin before dates may retrogress. It is a guess and reality may vary based on the side Mr O. will wake up on the day of VB determination. ;)
Only reason after so many years they are not sure of who are still pursuing the GC or if there is change in mind from employee or employer. In addition the whole point about moving dates is to consume visas, it cannot be left on assumed demand to get converted. Apart from this few file many I-140 s after job change before they get chance to file I-485.
I am hoping that your PD to become current before it retrogress. But we are not sure what would be enough demand for DOS to pull the plug.
Let's hope so. You can expect GC in month or two after becoming current.
For now we will keep GC calc as it is but we will update in few months after retrogression.
I am hoping next bulletin to be around Aug 15, 2007 but you never know. Hopefully you will be current in 2 months.
hello cm you have predicted that FY 2012 will reach until nov.2006.for eb3 phil. with that said since the new FY yr did not retrogress for eb3 phil.what would be the chances or what month will sept 8 2006 will be current? hoping to hear from you...your knowledge is highly regarded on this matter...
ALso if my date does not become current in Q1 2012 , how long will it take when I will be able to file for 485 . Will it be 2013 ?
Hi CM,
This blog is awesome. I am very new to GC chase and these posts help me understand the process.
I had a quick question. The latest VB says the dates may retrogress.
Is it possible that the dates wont actually retrogress but stop at a perticuar month for several next vbs?
And if they do retrogress how much max can they retrogress? will tehy again fall below july 07?
Please throw some ligt on this!
thanks.
Dear CM, thank you and appreciate your good wish! Yah we can only hope the best but who knows.
Hi,
My PD is Jan 2009 - EB2-India, My H1B is completed 6 Years and the current company will be closed within 6 months. At this situation, I can be in US for the next 6 months, do you think PD will reach Jan 2009 within 6 months?
My only positive hope is, from Sep 07 to Jan 09 applications counts are around 1200 based on USCIS i485 pending inventory. Please, kindly answer to my question, so that i can decide that i can be in US or not.
My PD is july 20 2007 EB2 India . do you think it will be current next month.
1200 is incorrect there are 45k-55kapplication between Sep07 and Jan09. Inventory u are referring is till July 2007 only it does not count PWMBs & applications after July 2007. It is very difficult t predict based on trend USCIS has been following for past 4 months.
Thanks for your reply. I calculated 1200 based on http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011.pdf
Can you please let me know this pdf sheet (
All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers and Field Offices as of June 201) included PWMB's?
Read reply to my post. I am sure you will be current next month. Good luck to both of us.
I think we will definitely see more than 60% approval before we will start to hear that visa numbers are not available. Cases will be approved randomly depending upon IO assigned. Hopefully earlier PDs will get priority.
Hopefully your case will be current in few bulletin (may be next) and then approval will be based on case status and availability of visa numbers.
We will try to club EB3-ROW, M & P demand together in a Calc and update that in a week. It seems like for some time these will move together.
Difficult to say. But based on past trend they followed we can expect some progress every month or two before we will see any retrogression. I believe whenever next movement will happen you will be current.
Thank you for your kind words.
Dates will definitely not retrogress in next VB. You getting your GC is based on visa numbers available and current status of your application. We should expect some approvals for those who became current in Oct VB.
Around 2.5 years from today if we will continue to see similar spillover like last year.
You may file for GC this fiscal year but would receive it FY 2013 as long as current EB1 and EB2-ROW demand will continue.
Thank you Sir, for your kind words.
Around June-July 2012.
It depends from what would be the last cut-off dates before it will retrogress. If it is early then November 2007 then you may be current during spillover season.
It is very much possible that dates will not retrogress and some cut off dates will stay put for some time. It all depends upon DOS discretion. Only reason retrogression cannot be discarded is due to limited number of visas available each quarter.
Based on what we saw for FB category, it can retrogress as bad as December 2006 and then move slowly back to July 2007 in few VB. It all depends upon PD of last man not eligible for visa numbers.
PD reaching January 2009 in next 6 months is very unlikely.
Guest answered your question well. 1200 is the number only till July 2007 because that was last cut-off date that was ever current for EB2-I. There are thousands of people still waiting to file their I-485 with PDs after July 2007.
Hopefully yes in a month or two.
I'm from the Phils under eb3 w/ Pd of january 3, 2007, with the latest developments will my pd be current next year 2012, or early 2013.thanks
With this bulletin, when can my pd of oct 7th become current? Is it possible to have similar movement of 3 months in next bulletin so that they can guage demand until Oct/Nov 2007 in the next bulletin? Thanks.
My PD is sep 2008 end (EB2, 140 approved). Would you please be kind to let me know what would be my wait time?
You have been doing excellent work, and all wishes and we all pray for your long health, happy life.
CM, My PD EB2 July'31st-2007(PWMB). Hoping it will be current in next VB so that I can file 485 and my case will be 'documentarily qualified' by the time spill over occurs at the begining of Q3.
How long it usually takes to a case to be documentarily qualified once 485 applied ? If my PD doesn't become current(for some weird reasons) until end of Q2, would I still be able to 'documetarily qualified' and get a spillover visa number in FY2012 ?
Thanks for your brilliant work on this blog..
Also wanted to add, at what point they issue EAD once 485 applied ? Just verify all required docs have been received and issue EAD or wait until documentarily qualifed ?
Hi- If you apply for i-140, your H1 can be renewed beyond 6 years. 140 doesnt have to be approved, just apply if you haven't and you should be good...hope this helps!!
Dear CM, my PD is June 29th 07 EB2I. With my 485 already filed in 2007 fiasco. Is it reasonable to expect i-485 approval soon?
CM,
Do you see any chance that the dates will progress till June 2008 before they retrogress? I am asking this as we saw several posts during June-Aug 2011 where cases with June 2008 were asked to pay the VB(CP cases). I read somewhere that usually it takes about 8 months to get the date current once you recieve the letter to pay the visa fees.
Your thoughts please.
VJ
CM,
Any chances of March 2008 EB-2I becoming current this year for I-485 filing?
I also read somewhere that a Bill was introduced to remove per country limit. First, do you happen ot know if it is true? if yes, what will be the implications?
Thank YOU!!
CM,
My PD has become current in October Bulletin. I will try to send all docs to USCIS by October 1. My question is, Is date valid till end of October?? or till October 1??.
Hi CM,
I will become current in october 2011. If i file for 485 in Oct when can we expect GC in normal circumstances.
What is your PD and Category??.
EB2 India
PD Nov28 2007 Ind EB2 , please let me know when will I be able to file 485 and when I might get GC ? Thanks
DOS has put annual limit for FY 2012 on their website. No change in allocation so far. We do not expect to get any spillover from FB category to EB category unless anything changes.
Annual Limit can be seen here --> http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf
Hi CM,
My PD is EB2-India Mar 2007 and applied for I485 on 9th Sept 2011. When do you think I can receive my GC?
My 140 approved 2 years ago, if my company shut down then i have to transfer my visa to other company (note - i already completed 6 years in H1B)
_____ I got an advice from an Immigration Attorney, that i can file h1 transfer (even completing 6 years) along with approved 140 to get 3 years extension_____ also can take over existing PD, but the new employer has to file PERM & 140 again... Here the previous employer SHOULD NOT revoke my 140....
Here you can check approved 140's
http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html
we have only 2803 visas Year 2012. Again dates will not go based on this count only, some spill over or govt immigration reform. Already US economy is in double dip, and Europe's are in another trouble.
Will wait for a while, if nothing happen, then go back to the place, where we came from. No more "American Dream"
___PAIN IN THE ASS__
CM,
My pd is Oct 18, 2007 EB2 India. When will my pd become current.
Thanks
Krishna
Around December 2013 earliest and as late as June 2013.
Very much possible. I would think
a) Nov VB --> Atleast 15th Aug 2007 - 2 months
b) Dec VB - more 2 months
c) Jan VB - Depending upon demand retrogress or additional month or two.
d) Feb VB - Retrogression.
It all depends how much Mr. O wants to gauge the demand for next FY 2012. If he wants to fdo everything in one shot then it will be as outlined above else it may be in 2 steps movement, retrogression and one more movement in April 2012.
Thank you for your kind words and wishes.
So far Sep 2008 can be current in 2-2.5 years and GC in 3 years.
You will be greened in FY 2012 for sure.. For a clean case it only takes 2-3 month to be documentarily qualified.
EAD is issued within 90 days irrespective of you are documentarily qualified or not.
Yes hopefully in October or November.
June 2008 looks very unlikely for FY 2012 but we cannot disregard any possibility for this year. No one knows what will be DOS' strategy. Visa Bill received last year for CP cases is only valid for 8 months as long it is not paid. Once paid, it is good for ever. So it is difficult to say what will convert into demand in few months from now. I believe even with the best efforts we will see March 2008 PD just making through. Chances for March 2008 is less than 30 % as of now.
i have seen some blurb on removing country quota in one bill and recapture of visa in one but nothing has made to the floor yet. With election in near term, I do not expect anything happening. We will just need to wait.
Your PD March 2008 has a bleak (30%) possibility to become current this fiscal year. If it will become current it will either be in Jan or then close to spillover season when dates will be move ahead if demand is less than available visas. IN that case CP cases are only hope to use some visa numbers and we know from last year that some of these PDs received visa bill last year.
GA, Dates are valid until October 31. Please do not rush in unless all documents are satisfactorily complete. Good Luck.
Atleast 3-4 months in normal case if dates did not retrogress.
You may file for GC some time this year and receive EAD but you will be on borderline to receive GC this fiscal year.
Around December 2011 for the clean case.
"Here the previous employer SHOULD NOT revoke my 140.... " ------ This is not true you can retain PD even previous employer revoke your I-140 unless it was revoked due to fraud or misrepresentation.
With new company you can use AC21 to transfer H1B visa and extend it for 3 years. Good Luck.
Hopefully before dates will retrogress this FY 2012 else you will need to wait until June- August 2012.
My EB2-I PD is JAN 14, 2008. Can I expect it to be current in Q2, 2012 ?
Wow, that's awesome
Hi CM,
My PD May 2009,EB 2 I. Can there be any chance for me this year.
CM,
I was unfortunately booked in a retail theft case ( due to nonbilling of an item by the checkout person ) and had to attend court , hired a lawyer and the case got DISMISSED without any problem.Now my question is , is this going to affect my GC processing as my PD is nearing. Please suggest me. Thank you.
CM, By Jan of 2012 , where do you expect dates might move at a minimum and maximum ? For EB2 India.
CM,
My PD is May 2nd, 2007 EB - 2 India. ven though I am current as per October VB can retrogression impact me?
If dates retrogress to before May, 2007 will I no longer be current?
Thanks,
RP
Dear CM,
My PD is July 27, 2007 and I've already filed my I-485 in August 2007. Can you please let me know whether there is any possibility of getting the greencard before December 2011?
Hi CM,
My PD is Dec 2007. I am in EB2 China category, I have a new job offer that I want to take, would it be wise to switch job now that I am so close to being current? Also, if my priority date become current while the new company is filling my PERM and I140, can I still retain my Dec2007 priority date once the PERM and I140 is approved with the new company?
Hi CM,
My PD is Apr. 2007, filed I485 on July, 2007 (EB2), I saw my case has a Last-Update-Date (LUD) on Aug. 2010, but the status is still Initial Review. Do you know normally what the LUD means, is it possible that my case got preadjudicated? I did address change and EAD renew before that LUD.
Thank you very much. You are so kind.
CM, From this month's demand data, for EB2 INDIA-
Prior to 1/1/2008, 4875 cases and
Prior to 1/1/2011, 5000 cases,
Where did that 125 cases come from between 2008 and 2011?
It is a bit perplexing because the EB2 cut-off dates never advanced to beyond 2007.
Thanks CM for your response and for writting this blogs.
Hi CM
My company may be acquired or merged this year.
I have my I-140 approved and PD is 09-NOV-07. I am from EB2-I category. I want to know what impact this merger/acquisition can have on my i-1485 ( not yet filed.)?
thanks
VG
I forgot to ask my second question. If the merger is in progress (which may take few months to an year to complete), can I485 be filed through my current company or I485 would be held up till the merger completes?
Please answer both the questions posted in my thread.
thanks
VG
Information from OH Law firm (www.immigration-law.com)
_______________
09/15/2011: FY 2011 Employment-Based Visa Numbers Exhausted as of 09/15/2011 and No EB Visa Number Will be Authorized to USCIS Until 10/03/2011
AILA has reported that the State Department notified today the USCIS that no EB visa numbers would be authorized effective today because all the FY-2011 Employment Based visa numbers have been exhausted. The visa numbers will thus start being authorized beginning from 10/03/2011, the first business day of October when the October Visa Bulletin visa cut-off takes effect. Accordingly, the USCIS office will not be able to ask the EB visa number authorization to the State Deparment from today and until October 3, 2011. They will start authorizing visa number request by the USCIS offices beginning from October 3, 2011 covering all the eligible cases which had been entered into the pending Demand from 09/15/2011 through 09/30/2011 and those within the October cut-off date.
What does this mean? Those EB cases which could have been completed adjudicated and approved during the next 15 days (the pending Demand data for the FY 2011 between 09/15/2011 and 09/30/2011) will experience a little bit of delay in obtaining visa number allocation for them until after October 1, 2011. There is no information available about what the September 2011 EB 485 Demand Data was transmittted to the Visa Services by the USCIS.
___________________________
Expect no approvalas for next 15 days. We will see approval starting October 03, first working Monday for month of October. Good Luck. This also tells you that approvals for October VB movement will come from FY 2012 ( which should be the case in reality).
Hi CM,
Thanks for this update. Do you think this will effect the EB2I forward movement in the Nov bulletin?
Hi CM,
Whoever not getting GC within next two weeks(they r already current in Sep bulliten), those people will fall into 2012 Quota, right, if that is the case whoever are current in October bulliten they are not going to get GC's right. those numbers also we need to add 2012 quota, correct.? mine is May 10th 2007, applied I-485 in July 2007. Am i get the GC in October.
CM,
Is the I-140 does NOT have to be revoked really true? I have read both kind of statements on different forums. It doesn't seem clear anyone really knows. AC21 can be used only if I485 is filed and pending for 6 months, right?
Hi CM, Thanks for your information.
I think we will see no forward movement in November 2011 VB for EB2 category. my PD is August 1st 2007, When will my pd become current?
Hi CM, Thanks fr the gr8 analysis..How far back do u think the dates could retrogress and how long do you think could they end up staying retrogressed.
Thanks MPS
CM,
This is a superb analysis and thanks for helping the whole anxious immigrant community.Based on the review you provided,whats your take on retrogression and to how far back?My PD is july 27th 2007 EB2,looking at this new do i stand a chance in next few months or long wait still?
Thanks,
Bob
Call USCIS customer support
CM, from various posts it is very confusing . Will fiscal 2012 see PD EN2 Ind date move to Dec 2007 ?
Hi CM thanks for all your input, I am a long time reader an first time poster. My PD is Sep 17, 07,EB2 and my 7 yr visa ends on Nov 1, for which I have files extension based on 140 through premium processing. I have to make an emergency trip to India and planning to come back by October 30th to avoid stamping, buy expecting my H1 approved by then. Is it a big risk by coming back a week before my Visa expires, if I am stuck at port of entry and had go come back to India can I still file for my EAD from India as I am expecting my PD to be current by this year?
Anyone who can help feel free to respond
CM,My PD is July 2007 EB2, is current in October Bulletin. I am applying for AOS now. How long it will take to get EAD?? and what about GC??. Do you think it takes at least a year or two to get GC??.
Hi CM,
I have been avid reader of your comments and your explanation of visa bulletin movements. My PD is July 2007, EB2 India and would be current in October per October visa bulletin dates. I also came to know lack of visa numbers for applicants who will be current in October bulletin. My question is will the wait time grow and if by how much before we get green card in hand?
Looking forward for your reply.
Best Regards
PBTEXAS
Hello CM,
Thanks for the leading and organizing the complex topic for Eb2 IC folks. Sorry to ask you the same question again :
What is the best estimate for April 16th 2008 PD EB I?
I know you are being cautious and conservative sometimes, I am looking for best estimate to get EAD.
Thanks Much
CM, when can we see your november 2011 visa predictions? Thank you
Hello CM, do you think the next VB will move to Jan 1, 2006 for EB3P?
It might become current some time in Feb 2012 or Mar 2012
Hi CM,
My priority date is APR 26, 2006 in worldwide EB3 category. When do you think, I will be current?
Thanks.
Chances for you getting current in Q1 is very less but not impossible. In case if that does not happen you may have to wait until April-May 2012 or more depending upon after what cut-off PD, dates will retrogress.
Chances are almost close to null for this year.
It should not affect your case but in case you are asked for Biometrics again and this will come in FBI name check you may receive RFE or NOID to explain this. As long as you can show that you were dismissed due to innocence not due to lack of proof, you should be fine.
As days pass, one’s thinking evolves and their perspective does change at time. How dates will progress is beyond anyone's guess. Best thing we can do is estimate based on past experience and trend. In past, DOS has moved dates for FB category in increment of 2 months until they thought demand was enough for current year and it was prudent to retrogress dates. After dates were retrogressed, it kept on retrogressing for some categories and stayed put for others in FB category for entire FY 2011. But difference in FB category is that most of the demand usually comes from CP cases and not AOS cases hence it can be just matter of 2-3 months for DOS to receive the numbers from NVC based on what they are ready to process. But with AOS, it is completely different ball game. Here once days will be current for anyone after July 2007, it will take them at least 3-4 months to become documentarily qualified and to be counted towards demand data.
If we will think that is the thinking process for Mr. O at DOS, he would follow something like FB for this year purely on basis of trial and error. Current date movement for October VB means that they will get 6000 new cases ready to be approved apart from PWMBs. Now DOS can easily accommodate or approve these many visa numbers just based on EB2-IC quota. Question is when DOS will think achieved demand is enough demand for this FY 2011. It can take them at least 3-4 months just to qualify PWMBs from October VB. Add one month for those who will be current in successive VBs after October. So one schools of thought tell you that they may not have to retrogress dates until Q2 FY 2011 or they can very well decide to stop the VB movement after each VB for a month and then gauge the demand and then move it in alternative months .
Other thing that can happen is that USCIS can inform DOS the demand just based on received applications for EB2-IC for October, November and December. DOS can use this data to ball park demand and retrogress the dates. These cases will eventually add to the demand data as time will progress.
Third scenario is DOS will do what they did for FB category move dates for each VB by 2-3 months until Q1 and then retrogress.
I personally believe first scenario will be best. That way they will progress dates slowly but it will not overwhelm USCIS through lot of Service requests and congressional enquiry and as dates will progress slowly, DOS can get hold of quarterly spillover and approve cases as they will come. This way DOS can use first and second quarterly spillovers judiciously. 8000 current EB2-IC demand can be easily handled without retrogression by DOS if movement is managed strategically. Only worry for continuous movement in Q1 is USCIS getting bugged by congressional inquiries and service requests and thus pressing DOS to retrogress dates.
It is difficult to predict maximum or minimum movements until Q1 2012 but I think anyone upto December 2007—March 2008 can get chance to file green card (or EAD/AP) and those with PDs upto November 2007 can receive green card this FY 2012.
I do not think retrogression will impact you but in case if dates will retrogression in next VB then you will not be current from that month (VB month and not released month).
there is good possibility that you may be current by then and I cant tell you about receiving green card.
If you think this opportunity is nice enough and will give your career a boost go for it. It may be you will be current in three months or may be current later in the year, it is difficult to tell.
In case new company will file new PERM and I-140, you can definitely retain your PD and use it to get green card if dates are current for your PD then.
it can mean anything it will not lose sleep over LUD. In case you want to know your case is pre-adjudicated, take an infopass and go to the closes ASC. IO at ASC will tell you if your case is pre-adj and just waiting for visa numbers.
Those are consular processing cases. For CP cases to be counted towards demand data they do not ahve to be current. Usually National Visa Center (NVC) will try to get CP demand atleast 8-9 months beyond latest cut-off date.
Is your company's tax id will change? if not you have to do nothing else you will need to file amendment to your currently approved I-140.
Again it depends if your company;s tax ID (FEIN) will change on completion of merger or they palnning to change it before. If it will change on date of completion of merger, you can file for GC w/o doing anything if you PD will get current before merger date.
I do not think so, movement is independent of visa number available. It is purely to get some demand in.
Yes whoever will be approved now in October will use numbers from FY 2012 quota. Hopefully you will get GC in Oct or Nov.
AC21 has lot of provisions. One of it is "AC21 to change jobs on EAD can be used only if I485 is filed and pending for 6 months". Likewise one provision in AC21 also allow portability of H1B visa that we use to transfer H1B visas from one employer to other. Similarly one provision allows H1B to extended by 3 years on approval of I-140. Here I-140 does not have to be approved through same employer.
It is very possible that there will be no forward in Nov but no retrogression as well and then we may expect movement in December. You should be current whenever we will see next movement.
Dates if will retrogress can move anywhere to 15 April 2007 to 01 Jan 2007 and then will again come back to May 2007 and will stay there until spillover season.
Wait should be few months hopefully.
Yes, FY 2012 should see it getting current atleast.
EAD in 90 days and GC in 6-10 months from October depending upon retrogression.
I am hoping most of the October VB applicants may receive GC in October or November. I am just hoping that lot of SRs and congressional enquiry should just not overwhelm USCIS to press DOS to retrogress dates in November. Hopefully everyone will take it little slow and let USCIS do their job.
Best case will be just around July-August 2012 and worst case will be around October- December 2012. If you will be current in Q1 this year, it will purely be luck :)
Around Friday.
I have not done calculation. I will be up with my estimation around Friday. Most likely it will be 8 January 2006 but wait for the correct date.
Around 6-7 month from today.
Thank you for your reply ,CM.
Just another Q !
There was no arrest & no fingerprinting ,no photograph when the cop gave the ticket & asked to present in court .Judge stated deferred prosecution asked to do community service & after that i was given the letter as NON SUIT and told that its dismissed. Later i got it expunged.Please guide me ! Thank u once again.
Hi CM
Thanks for your support; your information is very helpful.
My case is, I have approved PERM and I-140 application with Company A under EB2 category. Company B acquired company A (completely), and I am continuing work for company B. My PD would become current in next visa bulletin.
Will it be OK to file I-485 with my existing PERM and I-140 of company A since Company A is acquired by Company B? or Do I need to apply PERM and I-140 again with Company B?
FYI – Tax id is different because company B acquired Company A completely.
Please advise me, my priority date would become current soon.
Hi CM,
My PD is June 09,2008 in EB2I. Can i atleast get a chance to file (EAD/AP) before feb 2013 ?? Appreciate your help to this community.
Thanks CM.
Thanks Koolarchy
Hello CM,
Thanks for your valuable insight.
My PB is Dec 08 2007, EB2, India. What would be a fair estimate for me to become current. I am trying to plan full time job around mid 2012. Is this realistic?
Thanks, appreciate your time and help.
Sunny
Very unlikely from current data...unless something changes drastically..:(
Hi CM,
Appreciate you efforts in giving us a platform to see the recent and very clear updates on this very complicated topic.I have been a reader for some time now and always like your analysis.
Most questions get answered just be reading your analysis and comments posted here.Didn't see someone asking this question so thought of putting it here.
Once the queue gets cleared for Aug 2007, how do you see EB2IC dates movement afterwards? Heard that major roadblock is till Aug 2007 and then dates may move little faster afterwards. Do you see this rumor/observation can be backed by your data analysis?
My heartly congratulations to all those guys who are current now for getting out of this uncertainty/frustrated time.
Kashi,
EB2I, Sep,2008
Based on your assessment, we'll see a movement of 9 months for EB2 by March 2012 ? Please correct me if my understanding is wrong based on your reply above. I thought the demand data calculation predicts April,2008 EB2 India to current sometimes in 2013.
Based on above reply it means if for some reason during spillover season DOS have to do some big movement to get some more demand that already accounted for in this first round, they will move dates to accomodate CP case, which may give chance for the poster to file for EAD. Thsi si very optimistic case. Worst case is dates will move into April 2008 in Q1 FY 2013 like this year for some time and retrogress. This will give one chance to file EAD in Dec 2012.
In any case I am not optimistic about people receiving green card in FY 2012 with PD beyond Jan 2008, realistic is November - December 2007.
Thank for the clarification CM, appreciate it.
My PD is Feb 07 2008 end (EB2, 140 approved). Would you please be kind to let me know what would be my wait time foe EAD and GC? Is CP better option?
You have been doing excellent work, and all wishes and we all pray for your long health, happy life.
If it is expunged then you should be fine. Just make sure you have all documents ready to show that case was dismissed n expunged in case it is asked.
Since tax I'd change, you may have to file for I-140 amendment for new company. No need to file new PERM. Talk to your attorney.
Yes. If spillover turn out to be same as this year then may be in august 2012 as well.
Realistic if you looking for EAD. Not sure about GC by then.
In all after August 2007 I do not see any change in wait time to receive GC. One will still have to wait 5 years from their PD to get GC. But one thing we can expect is dates will move forward and then retrogress regularly. This will give chance one to receive EAD sooner than expected.
Thank you for your kind wishes.
EAD anytime from December 2012 to June 2012. GC around November - March 2013. CP will give you GC as soon as your PD is current as long as you documentary qualified at NVC by then. with CP you will not receive EAD.
Hi CM,
Refering to post below,
It is good to know that EAD can come sooner... My PD is nov 2010 and I think it will be ages before I get GC. But if I can get an EAD sooner may be 3 more years, that will be gr8! crossing my fingers.. :( sick of sitting at home doing nothing!
omgc!
CM Did you mean EAD anytime from Dec 2011 to June 2012 or Dec 2012 to Jun 2013?
Hi CM,
It seems that no. of applicants in EB2 I in 2008,2009 onwards has been decreasing significantly and is there any chance for the moment to be faster ,if my PD in 2009 can i expect my EAD sooner than as u mentioned previously.
Thank u for all the support.
lets hope for the best. We never know how things will change with any change in the law.
Sorry I meant Dec 2011 - June 2012 for EAD/AP
So far what we are predicting could be worst case but we will know as time will pass. So far assumption is based on available published data. It is very much possible that dates can move faster than expected if lost of individuals who filed during those years is no more pursuing GC..
Hi CM,
Based on the current visa bulletin movements, is it possible for EB-2 India priority dates to move beyond Aug 2008?. My PD is Aug 26,2008. Any chance of me getting a EAD atleast for the day?
Thanks,
Ram
Chances are slim and next to none. But with DOS you never know. :)
I am in the same situation...My I-140 Approved by previous company....and the company merged...Now attorney is filing my I-485 by saying Xyz(formely know as ABC)... Did you need to file the amendment....?
Mostly if you have successor of interest clause in your merger then you do not need to. Also company's FEIN should not have changed. Using FKA in your EVL has worked in past.
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