Friday, December 27, 2024


Saturday, May 14, 2011

EB2-China & India FY 2011 Movement Based on June Visa Bulletin


Saturday, May 14, 2011 | , , , ,

June 2011 Visa Bulletin has released, and EB2-India and China finally had a significant movement that was hoped after Mr. Charlie Oppenheim made a statement about atleast 12,000 unused visa numbers available from EB1 category for spillover to EB2 category. EB-2 China moved forward by two and a half (2.5) months to October 15, 2006, while EB-2 India moves forward after last month’s notable 7-week advancement by three and a half (3.5) months to October 15, 2006. In this article we will like to analyze statements in Visa Bulletin and discuss where EB2-IC will stand by end of this fiscal year (September 2011),

Notes from June Visa Bulletin for EB2-IC movement

"As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because India had reached its Employment Second annual limit."

There is nothing new in this statement. This was previously mentioned in May visa bulletin. EB2 India has reached it's annual limit and has started using yearly spillover or unused visa numbers from EB1.

"Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June."
As DOS mentioned in their past visa bulletin that they were interested in gauging EB3-EB2 porting demand and were very cautious before they could start using the unused visa numbers to progress EB2-IC dates. They checked demand for upgrade for first 10 days of May before advancing dates. Seriously .... they thought they will know the new porting demand in 10 days when PERM approval rate are at a year low level since past two months, and DOL is looking more to approve audit cases. Other than this, advancing dates only to 01 July 2006 for last bulletin would have not given them any real demand what they were looking for, unless they were worried about porting demand for PDs from 2002 to May 2006.

So my take on the statement "new upgrade demand has been minimal" is that most of the individuals with PDs between 2002 and May 2006 has exhausted their means, and others who are still working on it are stuck in PERM approval queue.

Advancing dates for EB2-IC to '15 October 2006' in June visa bulletin is a good move by DOS to gauge new upgrade demand for PDs in 2006, and at the same time this allows continuous demand for folks with PD pre-May 2006. In doing so DOS has exhausted almost 10,000-12,000 unused visa numbers available from EB1 category.

"The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability"

As mentioned in our past posts that spillover is used within a category purely based on First In First Out (FIFO) principle regardless of applicant's country of chargeability.

"Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011."
We will discuss this in detail below.


What can we expect for EB2-IC for rest of the fiscal year 2011?

Since DOS has completely used the available 10-12k unused visa numbers from the EB1 category this portends that we should expect small or no movement for EB2-IC in July visa bulletin. Any further movement for EB2-IC will only be due to unused visa numbers available from EB5 and EB2-ROW-M-P category.

EB2-ROW-M-P demand (FA)
But recent analysis of EB2-ROW-M-P PERM data for first two quarter suggests that demand for EB2-ROW-M-P for current fiscal year will be around 28,600 + 2,000. If this trend would change, we could see more demand (e.g. few unsuccessful EB1 folks from first quarter of fiscal year trying under EB2-ROW) as we will move towards end of fiscal year and EB2-ROW-M-P could yield no or less visa numbers as spillover. As of now we should expect only 5000 at most from EB2-ROW-M-P demand and as less as 3000.

EB5 demand (FU)
It is difficult to gauge EB5 demand. But if this year will see more demand for EB5 compared to last year, number of visa numbers available could be less. We expect at least 4000- 6000 unused visa numbers from EB5.

EB3 to EB2 Porting demand (PO)
How upgrade demand would shake up in coming months is far beyond calculable. All we can do is predict and assume. In coming months majority of demand could be from folks with PD after May 2006 and some portion could be from those who are currently in PERM queue. These numbers can be anywhere from 2000-2500. These are numbers which will control retrogression or stall of EB2-IC cut-off dates atleast for July visa bulletin.

Now some good news (EB1)
Knowing Mr. Oppenheim he would have never used all it's unused visa number unless he was sure he has enough lying under his sleeves in case EB2-ROW demand surges far beyond it's annual limit for current fiscal year. This suggest that DOS believes that either EB5 demand will yield atleast enough numbers that we predict or EB1 demand has potential to yield more (say atleast more 4000 -6000 visas).

Spillover available for the remaining fiscal year
Minimum = FA (lower bound) + FU (lower bound) +EB1 (lower bound) - PO (higher bound)
= 3000 + 4000 + 4000 - 2500 = 8500

Maximum = FA (upper bound) + FU (upper bound) +EB1 (upper bound) - PO (lower bound)
= 5000 + 6000 + 6000 - 2000 = 15000


Summarizing above headers

EB2-IC movement has potential to progress slowly or stall in July visa bulletin due to porting numbers and any increase in demand beyond expected can cause EB2-IC to retrogress in July visa bulletin. Expected movement for EB2-IC in coming visa bulletins is listed below. If this is it from EB1 category and we will not receive any more unused visas then EB2-IC will not cross December 2006.




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94 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Great insight. Thanks...
When do you think that CIS extend the cutoff dates to collect new applications for I485 beyond July 07 and for PWMB?

thanks
PK

Anonymous said...

Great analysis, as always. I was waiting for your analysis after June bultin. My PD is Jan 20 EB2 I. I hope you be current by September.

Quesiton - how did you determine that they used "all" 12,000 EB1 spillover in current bulltin? From the I485 inventory, it doesn't appear that 3.5 months of EB2 applicant are close to 12,000.

Anonymous said...

Hi,

I have a question about the PWMB folks. Even if there are quite a few people, per your recant analysis, in this category, they have not yet filed I-485. Even if they become current now, the GC processing is likely to take a few months which means their visa numbers is not likely to be coming out of FY2011 quota. Is this a valid assumption? If not, what am I doing wrong here?

Thank you
TR

Anonymous said...

Nice analysis. How many unused non-EB1 are present now. Is that released ?

Anonymous said...

What are the chance for reaching Dec 15 2006 based on the above analysis?,

Anonymous said...

Nice crystal clear analysis!

Rav said...

@PK As soon as dates will reach anywhere in June - July 2007 that time DOS will move dates in controlled manner to get applications for post 2007 PDs and PWMBs.

I still do not think that DOS will open floodgates by making it current for post 2007 cases. Simple example of that is EB3-Mexico. Demand data for EB3-M has stayed at 0-25 for PD year 2004 for past three months but dates has still not crossed 2004. So you can see how conservative DOS has become in past few years since July 2007 fiasco. After PD will cross July 2007 they will experiment moving dates by few months and gauging demand before they will see a trend.

If I was them I would have opened gates for 6-9 months inventory every October.

Rav said...

Thanks... hopefully you will be current in August, who knows.

Based on latest inventory -

EB2-India Pending cases until 15 October 2006 = 9345(Sep) + [11092(Oct) - 9345 (Sep)]/2 = 10218

EB2-China Pending cases between 01 Aug 06 - 15 Oct 2006 = 3251 + (3983 - 3251)/2 - 1785 = 1832

Total Pending cases = 10218 + 1832 = 12050

So there goes our 12000 EB1 unused visa numbers.

If we will remove anything from the pending inventory before EB2-India May 2006 assuming that is taken care by 2800 annual quota, numbers used will come down to 10,400.


Anonymous said...

Great analysis, as always. I was waiting for your analysis after June bultin. My PD is Jan 20 EB2 I. I hope you be current by September.

Quesiton - how did you determine that they used "all" 12,000 EB1 spillover in current bulltin? From the I485 inventory, it doesn't appear that 3.5 months of EB2 applicant are close to 12,000.

Anonymous said...

isn't the 12000 unused EB1 number refer to the first 6 months of the current Fiscal Year? From what I gather, the 12000 number mentioned by DOS before May bulletin referred to unused EB1 from October 2010 to March 2011. There should be more unused EB1 numbers falling to EB2 from the allocation of the rest of the current Fiscal Year?

Rav said...

Mr. Oppenheim never said that 12000 is a half-yearly allocation. It is our mere assumption. As per his statement 'EB2 category will receive "atleast" 12000 unused visa numbers from EB1'. Now the key word is "atleast". We do not know if those "atleast" would get converted into none, 4000, 6000 or 12000 more unused visa numbers. My gut feeling is more 4000-6000, best case 8000 but not more than that.


Anonymous said...

isn't the 12000 unused EB1 number refer to the first 6 months of the current Fiscal Year? From what I gather, the 12000 number mentioned by DOS before May bulletin referred to unused EB1 from October 2010 to March 2011. There should be more unused EB1 numbers falling to EB2 from the allocation of the rest of the current Fiscal Year?

Rav said...

@TR Your assumption is quite valid. Chances are most of the PWMBs will not use visa numbers; but in determination of PD cut-off date for EB2-IC for September 2011 bulletin, all the received application with PWMBs until August bulletin cut-off date will be used towards demand data determination.

Rav said...

No data has been released so far regarding availability of any more EB1 unused numbers.

Anonymous said...

Nice analysis. How many unused non-EB1 are present now. Is that released ?

Rav said...

One more thing that I neglected earlier is that so far 1765 visa numbers were used by EB2-C until 01 Aug 2006 from it's annual 2800 visa. Now remaining 1045 is still available as spillover that will be used among EB2-IC on FIFO principle going forward.

Or in OTHER words so far 11000 out of 12000 has been used. If we will assume applications from the pending inventory before EB2-India PD May 2006 were taken care by 2800 annual quota, numbers used will come down to 9,365.

Rav said...

Chances are almost 95-5. You should make it this year.

Anonymous said...

What are the chance for reaching Dec 15 2006 based on the above analysis?,

Rav said...

We appreciate your motivating words here. Thanks

Anonymous said...

Nice crystal clear analysis!

Anonymous said...

Hi CM, very nice analysis. It helped me think through.

My PD is May 2007 EB2I. Is it ok to assume that I can get my GC by Dec2011.

Also, I got married recently. Now I need to add my wife to my app as my PD gets current. Does that delay the app.

Thanks in advance on your valuable insight.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM, when can we use your updated Green Card Calculator? Thank you

Anonymous said...

1)what abt people who missed boat in 2007 July and whose PD is before April 2007
2) What about new applicants (like spouses) for the existing applicants whose PD is before April 2007?

Anonymous said...

Very Nice , Mucho Gracias.

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous

People who missed the boat and spouses are not counted on setting the cut off date anyways. So they dont affect the cutoff date. What they may cause is a retrogession of dates.

Anonymous said...

@CM

Mr. Oppenheim mentioned that in the first half of FY 2011, around 10000 numbers got used against 20000+ numbers in previous years. He also mentioned that he doesn't see great increase in the usage of EB1 numbers in this FY 2011. So there should be atleast 8000-10000 numbers available from EB1.

CM said...

@Anonymous

Information you are quoting was mentioned on one of our post - "http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/03/eb2-cateogry-will-see-atleast-12000.html"

It said "But contradictory to a) is the statement published on the other website which suggests "The Department of State announced that the Indian EB2 category is expected to advance one week in the May Visa Bulletin. The demand for EB1visa numbers has decreased by 50 percent this fiscal year. Last year from October 2009 to February 2010, 22,000 EB1 numbers were used. During the same period this year, only 10,000 to 11,000 have been used. EB1 will be current worldwide all fiscal year. This will free up an estimated 12,000 visa numbers to fall down from EB1 to EB2 this year."

This was only mentioned on one site but was not confirmed by other sources I talked to. So I am not sure. If that is true then yeas more 8000-10000 is a posibility. Else no more than 4000-6000. We will know by next month. If former case is true July visa bulletin should see huge jump of about 2-3 month.


Anonymous said...
@CM

Mr. Oppenheim mentioned that in the first half of FY 2011, around 10000 numbers got used against 20000+ numbers in previous years. He also mentioned that he doesn't see great increase in the usage of EB1 numbers in this FY 2011. So there should be atleast 8000-10000 numbers available from EB1.

Anonymous said...

To CM

My PD is 7th April 2007 ( EB-2 India). What are your predictions of this becoming current in FY'11 based on your analysis.

Thanks,

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous

It was clearly mentioned in the article that you might be current in Sep if the spillover is on the higher side.. otherwise you have to wait one more year...

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
This is one of the best website to check the all the Immigration information. My PD is Nov 19 2008 EB2I. Any idea when my PD will be current. Really appreciate your response on this.

Thanks
Kumar

Rav said...

You can be current anytime between Sep 2011 - Sep 2012. We will know how dates will progress in few months.

Adding spouse will not delay your case. Only thing that is important is that her application reach USCIS before your approval. Once accepted yours and her's is treated as separate petition.

I would start preparing for your wife's documents from now on so that you can file her case on 1st day when your PD will become current.

If by any chance that your case is approved before receiving her application she can always get green card based on 245(k) or by filing "Follow to Join" application on basis of your approved green card. For FTJ, she has to apply it overseas through consulate.

Ask you lawyer to file her case asap on first day of PD getting current and contest it based of 245(k). 245(k) allows individual to be out of status for 180 days. Good Luck. This is only required if your green card is approved on first day. Which I think if would happen will be a mere coincidence.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM, very nice analysis. It helped me think through.

My PD is May 2007 EB2I. Is it ok to assume that I can get my GC by Dec2011.

Also, I got married recently. Now I need to add my wife to my app as my PD gets current. Does that delay the app.

Thanks in advance on your valuable insight.

Rav said...

I promise before end of this month. Sorry I am little caught up these days.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM, when can we use your updated Green Card Calculator? Thank you

Rav said...

I agree with fellow individual who commented. PWMB and spouses will not be counted towards PD cut-off determination. But once they will apply, they are definitely used in demand data calculation for next month even though they might not end up using visa numbers for few months.


Anonymous said...

@Anonymous

People who missed the boat and spouses are not counted on setting the cut off date anyways. So they dont affect the cutoff date. What they may cause is a retrogession of dates.


Anonymous said...

1)what abt people who missed boat in 2007 July and whose PD is before April 2007
2) What about new applicants (like spouses) for the existing applicants whose PD is before April 2007?

Rav said...

Hopefully this year in September. Fingers crossed.

Anonymous said...

To CM

My PD is 7th April 2007 ( EB-2 India). What are your predictions of this becoming current in FY'11 based on your analysis.

Thanks,

Rav said...

@Anonymous Kumar If things would really go like they are going right now then anytime between Sep 2012 and Sep 2013. If DOS has no strategy other than to open gates to handle post July 2007 PD cases, then you can be current way before that. But for now count towards 2012-2013.

Anonymous said...

Superb Analysis.Great job.
My PD is Feb 2008.Any educated guesses when my lucky day will be.?

Anonymous said...

Any predictions for June 3008 priority date. Thanks!

Rav said...

@Anonymous Somewhere around July-Sep 2012.

NS said...

Thanks for writing a very lucid analysis and please keep up the good work.

Quick question - you mention in your prediction for July EB2IC - "no movement to 8NOV06 or 15NOV06". How are the dates 8th or 15th determined? Are there standard dates by which movements occur - 1st, 8th, 15th, 21st etc.?

I ask because my PD is 3NOV06 and thats cutting it a little too close for comfort. :)

-NS

Pontings_baldspot said...

@NS
Sailing in the same boat. PD is Nov 3 '06 and it will be cruel if they move the PD to Nov 1 next month :-)

Anonymous said...

BS advice!

Anonymous said...

Any predictions for Sep 2010 priority date. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Can you elaborate waht did you find BS? @ Anonymous said... BS advice!

Anonymous said...

Any predictions for Nov,22 2006 EB2-I? Thank you!

Anonymous said...

My priority date is Jan 2007 ......do u think I have a chance to get current in July

Anonymous said...

great analysis. Kudo's to you and your team.. keep up the good work. We are all proud of you..

Rav said...

@NS Standard dates are 1st, 8th, 15th and 22nd of each month.

My gut feeling is that you will be current next month.

One thing that you should know about me is that I am always conservative in my stance :)

Rav said...

For now I will assume 5 years to get your gc but you never know DOS can make EB2 current in case they do not have well laid strategy for next year or two..


Anonymous said...

Any predictions for Sep 2010 priority date. Thanks!

Rav said...

It totally depends upon how much EB1 and EB2 ROW will yield this year. So EB2-ROW demand is at year high. I am not sure how much mileage EB1 will give. For 12K there can be 2500 to none visas left. As far as I think DOS will use around 3000-4500 visas next month. That will take dates only into November or may be enough to cross November and touch 01 December. But if spillover is on low side then 3000 is maximum that you can hope for. But next month is important as it will tell what we should expect in August and September.

Anonymous said...

My priority date is Jan 2007 ......do u think I have a chance to get current in July

Rav said...

See above reply

Anonymous said...

Any predictions for Nov,22 2006 EB2-I? Thank you!

Rav said...

Thank you.

Anonymous said...

great analysis. Kudo's to you and your team.. keep up the good work. We are all proud of you

Anonymous said...

Why do you say it will take 5 years for Sep 2010 to become current ? Even if flood gates are not open, given that 08-09 didnt have many GC filings, sep 2010 should be current by 2014. Can you correct me, if I am wrong ?

Anonymous said...

Hey CM, Thanks for the great analysis.I think I'm begining to finally understand these calculations.
Can you please predict for my priority date Apr 30,2007 EB-2. Thank you!

Anonymous said...

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Contact me on : ali100000000@yahoo.com

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

My PD is June 2008. EB2 India. Do you think it will become current by Sept 2012.

Thanks for your indepth and lucid analysis. I was never tracking my PD. Once i am introduced to your site by a friend, i have become a regular visitor. Thanks once again.

Anonymous said...

sorry forgot to add that i am under EB2-I...

very intersting comments, and more interesting responses by you CM. Appreciate it.

Even I do have a very interesting question for your valuable response please.
My PD is June2010, The current org. which i am working in, has our project ending in 2013 and after 2013 there is nothing which can be taken for sure even though if we are in perm positions here. As per the recent changes and advancements in visa bulletins sometimes i get hopeful that my PD might ( a very bleak possibility though ) become current next year sometimesw in 2012, but as i said it would be over optimistic given that so many factors to count in. My question is if i change the org. now, even though my I-140 is approved, the new employer will have to begin all over (how this would affect my case please? 'and yes my current H1B is valid till 2013') and also if i decide not to change and wait, is it not over optimistice to hope to get the GC by Sep 2013 please?

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
I must say you are a gem of a person to answer so many folks' questions so patiently. Good wishes to you!

I have mine PD as Dec 1-2006. If the July bulletin says 1 dec 2006, should i assume mine as current? How do you read Dec 1-2006 date as : Dec 1 to Dec 7th all are current or till Dec 1 are current or anyone Before but not including Dec 1 are current ?

Rav said...

I am saying 5 years because most of the cases filed in 08-09 are EB2 cases. Distribution is around 70-30 among EB2-EB3 for the PERM data for India. I am still analyzing the data for updated GC calculator but so far this ratio holds good. Other than that many cases which went into audit are getting cleared these days. This will add more cases to the queue for year 08-09. Other than this I do not expect spillover to be same every-year. I would assume EB2-I only getting 10,000 unused visas going forward. There are lot of unknowns but we would know more in a year or two. This rational could change as we progress in the year or in late FY 2012.


Anonymous said...

Why do you say it will take 5 years for Sep 2010 to become current ? Even if flood gates are not open, given that 08-09 didnt have many GC filings, sep 2010 should be current by 2014. Can you correct me, if I am wrong ?

Rav said...

PD EB2 April 30, 2007 should be current this FY 2011 in September visa bulletin as long as we will see good movement in coming July visa bulletin..


Anonymous said...

Hey CM, Thanks for the great analysis.I think I'm begining to finally understand these calculations.
Can you please predict for my priority date Apr 30,2007 EB-2. Thank you!

Rav said...

Thank you so much for endorsing our website. EB2-I PD June 2008 should be current anytime in FY 2012 when DOS will try to make dates current to build some pipeline. If they will move dates in controlled manner then expect in first quarter of FY 2013.

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

My PD is June 2008. EB2 India. Do you think it will become current by Sept 2012.

Thanks for your indepth and lucid analysis. I was never tracking my PD. Once i am introduced to your site by a friend, i have become a regular visitor. Thanks once again.

Rav said...

If your I-140 is approved and you have spent at least 6 more months after approval with current company, you can switch to EB2 qualifying job with new company. This way when you will restart your PER< +I-140 with new employer you can recapture PD from previous I-140 during approval of new I-140. Just submit your old approved I-140 with new I-140 along with cover letter requesting porting your PD. Inform your lawyer with new company he will do the needful.

I would not refrain myself from changing jobs and advancing my career. June 2010 will atleast take 4 more years for you to get green card.


Anonymous said...

sorry forgot to add that i am under EB2-I...

very intersting comments, and more interesting responses by you CM. Appreciate it.

Even I do have a very interesting question for your valuable response please.
My PD is June2010, The current org. which i am working in, has our project ending in 2013 and after 2013 there is nothing which can be taken for sure even though if we are in perm positions here. As per the recent changes and advancements in visa bulletins sometimes i get hopeful that my PD might ( a very bleak possibility though ) become current next year sometimesw in 2012, but as i said it would be over optimistic given that so many factors to count in. My question is if i change the org. now, even though my I-140 is approved, the new employer will have to begin all over (how this would affect my case please? 'and yes my current H1B is valid till 2013') and also if i decide not to change and wait, is it not over optimistice to hope to get the GC by Sep 2013 please?

Rav said...

Thank you for your kind words. If bulletin would say 01 Dec 2006 that means only individuals with PD before 01 Dec 2006 are current.



Anonymous said...

Hi CM,
I must say you are a gem of a person to answer so many folks' questions so patiently. Good wishes to you!

I have mine PD as Dec 1-2006. If the July bulletin says 1 dec 2006, should i assume mine as current? How do you read Dec 1-2006 date as : Dec 1 to Dec 7th all are current or till Dec 1 are current or anyone Before but not including Dec 1 are current ?

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

My PD is Dec 2009. EB2 India. Do you think it will become current by mid 2013. According to my lawyer
2008-09 didnt have many PERM filings, movement will be faster once 2007 PD's are over.
I read your analysis and find it close to reality.
So please tell me if you think it will become current by Sept 2013.
Thanks

RAVIS said...

Hi CM,
My PD is August 29, 2007 EB-2 India. By reading some of the above comments, I assume mine will be current atleast in the first quarter of 2012. Can you pls comment.

Thanks

Veerendra said...

Hi CM,

My PD is October 2007. EB2 India. Any expectation in 2011 or 2012.

Thanks for your indepth and lucid analysis. I was never tracking my PD. Once i am introduced to your site by a friend, i have become a regular visitor. Thanks once again.

Rav said...

Current may be yes, Approval I am not sure until FY 2015. PERM approval so far were less but with approval of audit cases they are increasing. Other than this distribution among EB2-EB3 for India is 70:30, so things may slow down as we move into 2008 or 2009. Things may end up similar to PD 2006 with 2500-3000 application per month.

In order to update our calculator, I have finished analyzing PERM data post July 2007 for India based on PDs and PWD minimum salary. Going by memory until March 2011, ratio for EB2:EB3 is 67000 : 29000 (without considering dependents).



Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

My PD is Dec 2009. EB2 India. Do you think it will become current by mid 2013. According to my lawyer
2008-09 didnt have many PERM filings, movement will be faster once 2007 PD's are over.
I read your analysis and find it close to reality.
So please tell me if you think it will become current by Sept 2013.
Thanks

Rav said...

@RAVIS You could be current this FY 2011 as well. Chances are less but keep watching bulletins for next 3 months. If not then in FY 2012 for sure.

Rav said...

@Veerendra Chances are 50-50 for your PD in FY 2011. It all depends upon on how I-485 inventory for EB2-ROW-M-P will end up in next 2 months.

Veerendra said...

@CM
Thanks for your prompt reply.

Veerendra

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Thank you very much indeed for all your valuable suggestions and great analysis. It really ease a lot of pressure for all the GC Asperents.

Coming to me, I am from India and my PD is 06/06/2007 under EB2. Can you please throw some light with your expertise that when can I expect the dates current?

Thanks in advance,
-Sravan

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Thanks a lot for your insights. My PS is Jan 2009, EB2I NIW, any predictions when it will be current?

Thanks

Rav said...

@Sravan If we get 19k more spillover going forward you should be current soon. Chances of you being current in FY 2011 is 90-10. PWMBs will not use any visa for this fiscal year at least.

Anonymous said...

Thank you CM. This really brings a smile on my face.

Thanks,
-Sravan

Anonymous said...

Hi CM ,
Thanks for the great analysis & accurate predictions , my priority date is Nov 27 2006 , based on analysis looks like I'll be current in July VB . Can you please tell me how long it takes to receive the GC after being current. In my case I have approved I-140 & EAD . Also advice if any action has to be taken once I get current. Thansk for the support.

Rav said...

Anywhere between Sep-December 2014

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Thanks a lot for your insights. My PS is Jan 2009, EB2I NIW, any predictions when it will be current?

Thanks

Anonymous said...

Hi,

My PD is Oct 3 2007, can you please tell me when my PD will become current?

CM said...

Anywhere between Sep-December 2014

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Thanks a lot for your insights. My PS is Jan 2009, EB2I NIW, any predictions when it will be current?

Thanks

RAVIS said...

Hi CM,
My PD is August 29, 2007 EB-2 India. By reading some of the above comments, I assume mine will be current atleast in the first quarter of 2012. Can you pls comment.

Thanks

CM said...

For now I will assume 5 years to get your gc but you never know DOS can make EB2 current in case they do not have well laid strategy for next year or two..


Anonymous said...

Any predictions for Sep 2010 priority date. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

BS advice!

CM said...

I promise before end of this month. Sorry I am little caught up these days.

Anonymous said...

Hello CM, when can we use your updated Green Card Calculator? Thank you

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous

It was clearly mentioned in the article that you might be current in Sep if the spillover is on the higher side.. otherwise you have to wait one more year...

CM said...

Mr. Oppenheim never said that 12000 is a half-yearly allocation. It is our mere assumption. As per his statement 'EB2 category will receive "atleast" 12000 unused visa numbers from EB1'. Now the key word is "atleast". We do not know if those "atleast" would get converted into none, 4000, 6000 or 12000 more unused visa numbers. My gut feeling is more 4000-6000, best case 8000 but not more than that.


Anonymous said...

isn't the 12000 unused EB1 number refer to the first 6 months of the current Fiscal Year? From what I gather, the 12000 number mentioned by DOS before May bulletin referred to unused EB1 from October 2010 to March 2011. There should be more unused EB1 numbers falling to EB2 from the allocation of the rest of the current Fiscal Year?

Anonymous said...

Nice crystal clear analysis!

Anonymous said...

Hi CM,

Great insight. Thanks...
When do you think that CIS extend the cutoff dates to collect new applications for I485 beyond July 07 and for PWMB?

thanks
PK

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

It can be current this year but you will not receive green card at least until Sep-December 2012.

Guest said...

My priority date is Feb 28, 2008. Can you please tell when this will become current?

Guest said...

and its EB2 India

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Hopefully in September 2011 visa bulletin. If not then not for a year or two.

Guest said...

Obviously the author of this article, like everyone else, has no clue about the movements. (s)He is just doing some educated guesses.
In July 2011, EB2 moved significantly again. Now it is March 2007.

PBTX said...

Dear CM,

At first, I would like to thank you for detailed work you have presented regarding date movement for most of US immigrants.

I would like to request for your input- My priority date is July 5, 2007 (EB2-INDIA). When is this expected to be current? Appreciate your input on the same.

Thanks and Best Regards
PB TX

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Aug/Sep bulletin.

SG2007 said...

Hello CM,
Thanks for the wonderful job you are doing for the non-immigrant community, it is very much appreciated. I have my PD in Oct 2007 under EB2-India category, I would appreciate if you can predict when I will be able to apply 485.

Thanks

LA_Guy said...

Hi CM,

This forum sounds pretty good to be.
My PD date is june30 2009, Any guesses when will it become current.

Thanks,
Pad

LA_Guy said...

Hi CM,

This forum sounds pretty good to me.
My PD date is June30 2009 Eb2 category, Any guesses when will it become current.

I read people talking about Eb2-1, what is Eb2-1.

On my I140 its printed as below:
Mem of Profession w/Adv Deg,
or of Exception'l Ability Sec.203(b) (2)

Is that Eb2-1?

Thanks,
Pad

Anonymous said...

I think they are refering to EB2-I, I is for India

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Hopefully this year.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Agree with anonymous. Use GC calculator for estimation on wait time.

srinivas rao said...

hi Sir,
my PD Date is Aug,2008 EB2 Category(India). Any guesses when it will become current

Once it is current, after applying for EAD, how soon i will ge tthe GReenCard.

Apprecaite your help in this regards

Thanks
SR
Boston.

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