August 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions
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Note : In EB2-IC predictions, please read EB3-ROW as EB2-ROW.
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524 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 400 of 524 Newer› Newest»You have to wait till Sept 1st to file your 485 along with EAD
Wait till September. If you file in August, it WILL get denied.
Hi CM-can we expect an updated prediction for August VB or your prediction still hold same . Pls advice
CM: When will be the release date of August VB, 07/08 or 07/15?
VB should be 07/08. i am hoping for demand data to come out tomorrow. Only concern is since july commneced, USCIS has only be open for 2 days so i do not know if this can delay the VB. In my personal opinion, unused visa numbers are sufficient and like last month non-availability of demand data will not be of hindrance for EB2-IC. But will be required for EB3-ROW. Predctions still stays at anywhere between June-01 July 2007. Usage of EB5 numbers are of little concern for less movement in September bulletin. Visa usage number indicates only 6000 unused visa number available when extrapolated for full fiscal year.
Correction - Visa usage number indicates only 6000 unused visa number available when extrapolated for full fiscal year for EB5.
Hi CM:
do you reply back on the email provided? or should we just post our question here? I tried emailing couple of times but haven't received a reply.
Thanks
FTJ will be done by NVC and once approved you can continue with your CP cases at local consulates.
Usually NVC will request visa numbers in advance and if not used it will return to DOS for next month bulletin, whereas USCIS will only use visa numbers when case is approved. USCIS is expected to give DOS demand of pre-adjudicated cases pending every month. Difference in two successive months pending cases will be number of visas used by USCIS.
Once dates will become current, USCIS will try to approve as many cases as possible. In past they have used some unused visa numbers in October from last year's spillover. It is fine to use them as long as case was allotted to officer before September end. Other unused visa numbers should be used for next year FB category. So not all applicants will be assigned visa number automatically unless their case is allotted to VO for final approval.
Not much retrogression for July 2007 PD in October but approval will die along the line for long time due to PWMBs.
Agree with visu here that it all depends on number of unused visa numbers available and numbers of approvals for this FY. After October approvals will be less and dates may be stagnant for few months.
I will agree with MR you can initiate H1B Transfer. If your visa and I-94 is expired please read this before making any decision - http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/02/can-one-initiate-h1b-transfer-after.html
Assuming you are EB3-P or EB3-ROW, not until next 8-9 months. You should try to find employer by then. I am not sure how it works when your sponsoring employer is different from your original employer as provision for Ac21 is not applicable to CP cases. Consult lawyer.
Assuming you are EB3-P or EB3-ROW, not until next 8-9 months. You should try to find employer by then. I am not sure how it works when your sponsoring employer is different from your original employer as provision for Ac21 is not applicable to CP cases. Consult lawyer.
Great Post EB2C as usual.
I went through the documents
EB-5 Visa Usage
FY EB-5 Visas Issued
FY11 Q1&Q2 2,129*
FY10 1,885
FY09 4,218
FY08 1,360
FY07 806
FY06 744
*Preliminary Estimate of FY11 Q1&Q2 Visas Issued
Looks like EB5 visa usage will be around 4,260 for FY 2011 if same trends continue. This is same as FY 2009 level. I am concerned that this will affect movement somewhat in September bulletin depending upon where we land up in august bulletin. If August bulletin will not past beyond 15-22 nd July 2007 then we can only look at Dec 2007 PD at most for this fiscal year. Let's see. It all speculative as of now.
Hopefully this year.
Same for now. These last two months are nothing but speculation. We will look out for demand data for this bulletin if it is ever released. :)
Check email.
What if I mail the packet a day before September 1? Do the postmark date have to be September 1 or later?
It should reach on or after September 1, postmarked on August 31 is fine.
Hi CM,My PD is March 2008,India-EB2.Can you please let me know when my date would be current/
hi CM- Could you please eloborate what you mean by "approval will die along the line for long time due to PWMBs". ? What does PWMB stand for? Thanks
Is there any possiblity of EB3 Mexico retrogressing on August-December bulletins? I am acurrent since June 1st but I haven't received anything yet. I'm concerned of any retrogression before I'm approved!
hi CM,
how long it takes once PD becomes current?
thankd
Thanks CM
CM,
when will be the aug 2011 visa bulletine released?
CM, thank you very much and I appreicate greatly. I got your answers to my other questions as well. I will look forward to the August VB and your comment on that in a few days.
Around July 7/8
I have EB3-Row, Feb. 2007. Can you please predict when can I expect to be current? Thanks
Can you please predict when I can be current? EB3-Row, Feb. 2007
Can somebody please tell me how can there be unused visa numbers under EB3 and ROW (as stated above right after the Aug 2011 prediction), when in fact a lot of people especially under EB3 are waiting to be granted their respective visa numbers??????
MS
Check the note in the article which says - "Note : In EB2-IC predictions, please read EB3-ROW as EB2-ROW." So it is EB2-ROW and not EB3-ROW.
Hi CM,
What are the chances for EB2 -IC PD june 2008 ?
Any movements this year?
Hi CM
I might have to travel abroad for the first two weeks in September. My PD is Oct 10, 2007. Say, my PD becomes current in the September bulletin, how long will I have in September before I can no longer file my I-485. The reason I am asking is, the way I understand it, once I file for my I-485, I won't be able to travel abroad until I get my advance parole, right? And you have predicted that cut off dates will probably retrogress in the October bulletin. So, I was wondering if I can put off filing my I-485 until I return and then be able to file during say the third week of Sept?
Also, on a different note, I got married last year and will be declaring my wife when I file AOS. My wife is currently on F1. Will she have to change to H4 before I can declare her?
Hi CM,
I ahve the same Q as Ramprasath.I will be travelin October for few weeks and my PD is Sept 2007. If I file for I-485 and leave, in what status will I be coming back?
I appreiciate your advice on this?
Thanks,
SR
Just noticed that the July bulletin is moved to archived list, Aug might be published soon, today maybe?
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulle...
its a long shot for this year
Correct URL.....
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1770.html
Hello CM,
Thanks for all your help on the analysis.
I have read this news at one of the immigration lawyers website at http://immigration-law.com/
07/07/2011: Interesting USCIS Idea Looming up on the Horizon to Make a Rule to Allow EAD to H-4 Spouses of H-1B Professionals Working Under AC 21 Sections 104(c) or 106(a)
The USCIS is considering to initiate a proposed rule next March 2012 to extend the availability of EAD to H-4 dependent spouses of principal H-1B nonimmigrants who have begun the process of seeking lawful permanent resident (LPR) status through employment and have extended their authorized period of admission or "stay" in the U.S. under section 104(c) or 106(a) of AC 21 (Public Law 106-313). Apparently this concept is conceived to allow the eligible class of H-4 dependent spouses to work and thereby encourage professionals with high demand skills to remain in the country and help spur the innovation and growth of U.S. companies, and thus allow the United States to remain a world leader in high technology. Very stimulating idea! This may be perceived as an administrative fix of the broken employment-based immigration system. It will certainly help to stop ongoing reverse exodus of these talented foreign professionals, particularly from California, to their home countries. We will watch how far and how fast this concept will move ahead. Please stay tuned to this website for development of this news.
Could you please elaborate on this or may be if you also have anymore info on this.
Lets hope for this year.
In case if dates will only move until July 2007 PD then it means there were just enough Spillover to reach July 2007 but not enough to clear backlog. In that case around 6-10K new PWMBs will apply until September. If this happens then at most 2800 cases can be approved until next spillover season or even in spillover season, movement will be less until unused visa number will be enough to approve each of this PWMBs. Hence few of these PWMBs would have to wait until next spillover season to get approval. In this case if PD will ONLY reach just July 2007 PD in September then there will be no retrogression and PWMBs will use next fiscal year's annual quota still not satisfying entire PWMB demand. When this will happen, EB2-IC can also become 'U' for sometime during next fiscal year until spillover kicks in.
Chances of retrogression or becoming 'U' is less but not impossible as we all know EB3-M till date has used more than 2800 visa numbers. Only reason it may not become 'U' is if they still have not use more than 7% of total EB +FB available visas.It all depends upon EB2-M demand. If demand is less for EB2-M, it can give EB3-M more mileage.
For new cases average 4-6 months and for pre-adjudicated cases around 1day-30 days as long as your case is clear.
Anytime Bro!!!
Sure. I am little disappointed that demand data is not released yet but as you posted Mr. Oppenheim statement from some other site that DOS does not think releasing demand data is mandatory but is being releasing it for providing more transparency and information. If VB release is delayed to next week then it means they are trying to gauge demand to use available spillover which may mean better movement in the bulletin. But again I think if number are more than excess then why this delay. Something is not resonating well with me. It all depends upon DOS strategy. I hope our lawyer friend will be proved wrong.
After EB5 visa number usage released, chances are very very less.
Since you are on H1B, you can travel anytime inside /outside US as long as you have valid unexpired stamp in passport. For I-485, AOS purpose you need to be in country when your package is shipped and when it is received by USCIS. That's it. If you are current in September bulletin, you have until Sep 30 . Your I-485 package should USCIS until this time. You should be all set as far as I can see.
For how long is she on F1B. If it is more than 6 months, you do not have to change her status to H4. F1B is a non-immigrant intent visa only at a time when you get your visa stamped but intent/desire can change after 6 months once you are on that visa. You should be good to go.
Do you have H1B? If so use H1-B to renter US. Else if you are on EAD, you can only leave after receiving AP.
This is something that USCIS mentioned in their leaked Interim Memo as Administrative Alternative to CIR. So yes this was in works since long when and this may be time to go ahead and get it approved. As per excerpt below it will take 12 months for it to become a rule.
See here excerpt -
"3. Ex tend employmenlllulhol"ization to H-4 dependent .spouses of H-I B pr'incipals where
Ihe principals are also applicants for 11Iwful pcrmanent residcnce .under AC 21.
USCIS Senior Leaders have already approved this course of action; it is therefore recommended
in the context of identifying administrative relief options that their decision be communicated to
the Depanment of Homeland Security and to the White House.
Implementation Method: Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM).
DRAFT·- Immigration Administrative Relief Options
Page 7
Resources/Considerations: Coordinate with DHS Policy and White House prior to rule drafting.
uscrs systems (CLAIMS, etc.) will need to be modified 10 accommodate EADs for this group
of H-4s.
Targe! Date: Minimum of 12 months to issue final rule."
In addition see this effort from USCIS that is in works from the leaked memo.
2. Expand the Duallnlent Doctl"inc
Most non -immigrants who apply for adjustment of status are presumed to be intending
immigrants and arc no longer eligible 10 maintain nonimmigrant status. Section 214(h) of the
Act permits H-I temporary workers in specialty occupations, L-J intra-company managerial or
executive transferees, and their spouses and children to maintain their nonimmigrant status while
their adjustment applications are pending.
USCIS should consider expanding the dual intent concept to cover other long-term nonimmigrants,
including F, 0 , TN, P, and E visa holders. These long-term non-immigrants often need to make short overseas travels during their authorized stay. Under the "dual intent~ doctrine, these non-immigrants would be able to maintain valid nonimmigrant status and travel overseas without advance parole while their adjustment applications arc pending. They would also be aJJowed to maintain their nonimmigrant status if USCIS denies their adjustment applications.
Implementation Method. ~M-:
Resources/Consideratiolls: Coordi nate with other DHS components and DHS Headquarters as
well as the Department of Slate.
Target Date: Minimum of 12 months to issue final rule.
Congratulation to RP, he/she has updated the tracker to I-485 approval. First applicant on US Non-immigrants, who became current in July 2011 visa bulletin and got approved. This is good news that we have started seeing some approvals.
My wife is currently on F1-OPT which ends in Feb 2012. So, I won't have to convert her to H4 right?
BTW she has not been able to find a job with an employer willing to sponsor H1-B, and is hence working with a professor.
Someones prediction that I found on the net for EB3ROW
VB__________Model_________actual VB_______error in months
Nov-10______Jan-05________Jan-05__________0
Dec-10______Feb-05________Feb-05__________0
Jan-11______Feb-05________Mar-05__________1
Feb-11______Jun-05________Apr-05__________2
Mar-11______Jul-05________Jul-05__________0
Apr-11______Aug-05________Jul-05__________1
May-11______Sep-05________Aug-05__________1
Jun-11______Sep-05________Sep-05___________0
Jul-11______Oct-05_________Oct-05___________0
Aug-11______Jan-06 ________???
Sep-11______May-06
Dear CM - My Priority date is July 20 2007 , EB2 India. When can we expect this to become current? Any comments are appreciated.
Thank you!
Patel
Interesting! Let's hope it works out that way and EB3 gets some spillover. Chances are very less
As long as she does not violate 90 day unemployment rule. If you are not current until Jan 2012,U would change status to H4.
Hi CM,
My EAD date is Aug 16, 2007 and labor clear date is jul31,07, so in Aug bulletin if date becomes jul,07 then can you please let me know my application will be considered or not !!!
Thanks
SP
Yes, I am on H1 B extension and I would have to go for stamping.
It is amazing how most people keep scouring all the websites in hope of finding some relevant info regards to visa date movement for their individual categories. Also, this effort increases (basically twice a day in my case, lol) and the desperation has no bounds when it seems that the dates are getting closer and closer.
Anyhow, thanks all for giving your inputs, especially CM. You do a great job of putting all this "well evaluated information" together and also responding to questions posed by eager folks like me.
Hopefully this visa bulletin, we will have the demand data and some tremendous forward movement for EB2 category (which eventually will be cleared soon, so EB3 folks can get some sort of relief someday). Peace out.
hi CM,my first time to post a comment,I really feel a bit frustrated by now but I hope you can make me feel a bit hopeful.My PD-EB3 is March 26,2006,any chance it will get current by this year? tnx.Godbless ;)
Hi CM,
I read a story about a nurse who had her interview last month at the us embassy in manila. According to her she did not approved since she dont have an NCLEX .However, her co - applicant w/ the same agency got approved even w/out NCLEX. Is NCLEX a requirement for issuance of visa even your employer allowed you to take the exam once you arrived in US.
thanx,
guest
Hello,
My PD is Jan 31 2008. Any prediction on when it might be current?
Thanks
Guest
SR - You can not leave the country until your receive receipt # from the time you apply i-485
Hi CM,
My PD is Feb 28,2007 (EB2 - India). My attarney has not yet filed my I-485. She said she needs 3-4 weeks to file though I have sent her all the documents. Will I get my case approved by Sept 30 2011 even she files my case in August 2011? Please advise.
When I was working for employer A in 2007 they started collecting required documents from me to start green card processing under EB2 category, in Dec, 2007 I had resigned employer A and joined employer B but employer A had filed PERM for me in Mar, 2008(PD). My PERM and I-140 had got approved in 2008 from employer A under EB2 category even though I was not working employer A. I am still an employee of employer B, when my PD becomes current can I apply for 485 and EAD from employer A?
Here is some more information:
1. I dont want to port my I-140 to employer B because employer B is a multi-billion dollar company and they do only EB3
2. Employer A always welcomes me to join them and they never want to cancel my I-140 or anything, employer A is a consulting company with very few employees.
3. Employer B said that they don't want to port my EB2 because employer B doesn't want to start EB2 for anyone even though they are eligible for EB2. Employer B promised that once my PD becomes current then they let me do 6 months contracting from employer A and once I get green card then employer B wants to re-hire me.
I am in same situation as you. My case is handled by one of the big law firm in DC (MLB). All documents have been sent way past one but they are not showing urgency. After sending documents for 4 weeks they are telling me they need to send Employment verification leter to my company for signature now. This is unacceptable. This is important for us but these corporate lawyers take their own time. Sometime I wondered that small law firms can atleast give our share of attention. With big law firms you are always talking to these paralegals.
Yes. I totally agree. They do not care whether you miss the deadline or not. I think they do group filing and file once a month or so. We can only keep our fingers crossed and pray that our casess get filed ontime.
you will know today or on monday when the visa bulletin releases
you will be current in Aug bulletin
don't do your GC with small consulting firms- you will be in trouble.
hi my pd is aug24 2007 eb2 india any chances of current in august bulletin
Withdraw your current lawyer and go to somebody else - the big lawyers will make you wait for long, It happened to me in 2009 i was current but before the lawyer filled the I485 it retrogressed. Act quickly guys
in couple of hours the verdict will be out , if not then next wednesday.....have a good weekend
I do not think VB will be out today. It will Monday or Tuesday per my opinion.
It is not very small, already people from this consulting company have got GCs.
Where do we see latest EB5 visa number usage?
but you are working for a different company now and you are filing green card thru a consulting company - so that smells trouble
I know this sounds trouble but can I do this, would like to know if this is possible.
Your Priority date is Labor filed date or PERM filed date. If your labor was cleared on 31st July 2007, I am assuming that it was filed somewhere in June or July 2007. What is that date? That date will be used to determine if you are eligible to file or not. If you have your I-140 approval, Priority Date can be found there.
In that case once you will go out you will need to get visa stamped. I will not leave country until you will receive your AP unless you can risk to go for stamping and wait in case you are offered 221(g) or other background check.
Thank you so much Tobey for your motivating words. Amen to your thoughts on EB2 and EB3.
Mitch if you are EB3-ROW then chances are less unless EB2 is made current and DOS will try to use any remaining unused visa numbers to approve pre-adjudicated EB3-ROW cases. Still in that case dates will not progress that much..
It totally depends what are the requirements for the state of intended employment. An individual is expected to pass the NCLEX exam but may not be eligible to obtain license due to unavailability of SSN.
Please see this "c. A full and unrestricted license to practice professional nursing in the state of intended employment, or a certification issued by the Commission on Graduates of Foreign Nursing Schools (CGFNS), or evidence that she has passed the NCLEX-RN licensing examination but cannot obtain a license because she lacks a social security number. "
Check -> http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/07/obtaining-green-card-as-registered.html
If not this September then may be next fiscal year.
As per law the day USCIS will receive his application he can leave the country. Most lawyers say receipt number because generally USCIS never put physical received date as receipt date on the notice. There is always a discrepancy of few days here and there; so it is always advisable to leave on receiving Receipt notice.
Most likely not Subbu. But you never know. If you will file in November earliest you can be approved will be November as it may take few time for background check.
Green card is for future employment. As long as Employer A will give you Employment Offer letter saying that they will hire you on the day green card is approved after specifically stating same job duties and salary on the letter as previous PERM, you DO NOT have to do any contracting with employer A. Once your GC is approved at that time you have to work for Employer A for atleast 6 months. At this time you can contract from employer A and work for employer B.
http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35288
Hopefully in September Bulletin.
Thanks CM. I will request my attarney to file in July itself.
Got from forum who predicted like CM
http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12708&p=60960#post60960
Fantastic, I heard the same from immigration lawyers but just wanted to confirm with you also because looks like you have pretty good knowledge on immigration matters.
Very nice analysis. I wish we could share here for our readers. Thanks for posting.
Dear CM,
My priority date is July 27, 2007 India EB2. Any chances of being current in Aug/Sep bulletins?
My PD is March 13th 2007 (EB2I). Waiting for August bulletin
Updated GC Calculator for I-140 Conversion Rate, THANKS
Hey Cm, I m eagerly waiting for bulletin as it may hold good news..
My PD is Oct 7, 2007 eb2 -I ...Realistically, any chance of being current in aug/sep bulletin this fiscal year??
If not, what r the chances in the 1st quarter on next fiscal i.e. Nov-Dec-Jan ? Waiting 4 EAD : )
what is pre adjudicated case? I dont know anyting about it.
thanks
August Demand Data released
EB2 Category
Cumulative
Demand Prior To
China India All Total
January 1, 2006 0 --- 0 ---0 --- 0
January 1, 2007 10 --0 ---0---- 10
January 1, 2008 4,050-- 6,400 --0 --10,450
January 1, 2011 4,125 ---6,525 --125--- 10,775
EB3 Category
China India Mexico Philippines All Total
January 1, 2002 0 ---20--- 0--- 0 ---0 -----20
January 1, 2003 25-- 6,400 -0- 0 -75 ----6,500
January 1, 2004 50 -18,325 -0 -100 -18,475
January 1, 2005 1,625- 32,150 -0 125 -33,900
January 1, 2006 3,350 -41,125 -850 -6,125 -51,450
January 1, 2007 4,525 -52,125 -2,675- 27,475- 86,800
January 1, 2011 5,075- 56,325- 3,500 -35,525- 100,425
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
Looks very promising, Only 10K in 2007
CM, Any changes in Aug VB predictions after demand data?
For EB2-IC, number 10,460 is exact that we calculated. So now it is upto how many unused visa numbers are left. We still think atleast 9K more, for simplicity 6000 from EB2-ROW and 3000 from EB1. Maximum it can be anywhere from 12-13k, 6000 from EB2-ROW and 6000 from EB1.
We are expecting maximum movement in this bulletin and any movement in September bulletin will be to calibrate any unused visa numbers and based on DOS policy for next steps. Based on this prediction still holds for anywhere between June-01July 2007 atleast for this VB as long as we are getting minomum unused visa numbers as we predict.
For EB3-ROW/P/M, PD of 1 November 2005 is very much possible.
If number of unused visas available is more than 10,450, then EB2IC should become current right? Atleast thats what the explanation on DOS website says...If number of available visas is greater than the cumulative demand, PD will be current.
May be they will take a educated guess and move it to late 2007 early 2008
CM what are you thoughts on the Demand Data release we are eager to hear from you
Literally it should be current, but they know there is whole lots of unaccounted demand and not to overwhelm their counterparts (USCIS and NVC), they will move dates in an increment of a year and then retrogress. It will be based on their internal policy. As long as they fulfill their goal of not to waste annual visa numbers any step they take after not sticking to the stated rule in the policy books will be welcomed. if visa numbers are not wasted it is easy for them to back their premeditated move.
On our I-485 tracker, an indivudal who filed 'New' case in EB2 category in May 2011 received his Green Card in 2 months. Interesting that USCIS is approving even new cases for EB2-IC within 60-90 days. There is some hope for new cases filed in July 2011 to be approved before September 30.
See my comments in reply to Jay. Some of the EB3-india demand has reduced for post 2003 PD.
How is it possible for an IC national to file a 'New' case for AOS under EB2 when the PD are hovering in March 2007? Or Am i missing something here?
If PD never moved beyond march 2007 for india then who are these people (6525 - jan 1, 2011) and how did they file I-485. sorry if its a dumb question.
This person's PD was June 2006 for EB2-IC but looks like he missed the boat during july 2007 fiasco. He recently filed in May 2011 when his PD became current and went through complete ordeal of FP, background check and received GC in 2.5 months.
Previosuly dates had moved until July 2007 PD. Individuals accounted for after Jan1 2008 could documentarily qualifed CP cases ready to be processed if visa numbers will be available.
Oh. OK. Then it's fine. Thanks CM :) I just love your precise predictions to the 'Dot". I am new to this blog and my case details are: EB2-NIW-India PD 18 Feb 2010. Waiting eagerly like many other thousands of fellow persons for the PD's to become current. And yes, needless to say checking this blog is a must for me at least once every few hours in a day, everyday! You are doing a wonderful, self-less and commendable job and I truly admire you and your excellent, laser-sharp and crisp analysis.
Thank you so much for your kind wrods. All these nice wordds keeps us going. Let's hope it will become current.
Hi CM,
I asked you this question before, but once again with reference to your opinion. How can they ensure that visa nos do not go waste in EB2 category? Let us assume they move the dates by one year or so, even then the there is no way that the new applicants can utilize the available visa nos. If i am right if DOS does not want to waste visa nos they should utilize them for preadjudicated cases in EB3 category. For them to do that, if i am right EB2 category has to be current. It is a different story if they want to let go off some visa nos which will subsequently be used for FB category next year. BTW, is there any legal binding on DOS to ensure that visa nos do not go waste? I am can anbody enforce them through courts etc.. or it is just their internal policy?
When are we expecting the August Visa Bulletin ??. Is it today or tomorrow??. My PD is June, 2007 EB2, did not apply 485 during 2007 fiasco. If my date becomes current, when would i get EAD or Green Card. Do i need to wait for a year??
Dear CM: Based on the August demand data and June demand data, how many visa numbers have been used and would that affect the remaining number of spillover? Maybe more spillover have been used during these two months than original estimate?
Thank you.
Smae here have refreshed http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html like a zillion times and still august 2011 bulletin is not been posted. Werent they supposed to be out by 10 each month???
My friend at law firm suggests that there might not be significant movement as reduction in demand at EB2-ROW is of concern and their sources say it will be litttle movement. who knows. Just want to keep informed.
Is there a link to LC approval/ I-140 approval post August 2007 for EB-2- India. I was trying to see if ther is an approximate monthly count of approved LC/I-140 for 2008 and second half of 2007 for EB-2 India.
Thank you for your perseverance. "Reduction in demand at EB2-ROW" should translate into more visa numbers for EB2-IC. Why should there be little movement for EB2-IC? Am I missing something?
Sorry for being ambiguous in my statement. Reduction in Eb2-ROW demand in the demand data from June-August Demand data suggests more use of EB2-ROW visa numbers. I believe that is what he implied when he was saying this.
So that means there will be little moment in the Aug bullettin?
This is what our friend believes. As in past I have told that this source has been reliable some time and sometime has been way off. So I will not take his words. It is just extra information we had that I wanted to share.
In my opinion, June-July 2007 is a possibility based on our calculations and general trend on visa usage and published data..
Use our GC calculator, all these data has been assorted their based on PERM approvals and PDs and published I-140 approval rate.
haha same here...pd jan 2008 hoping in the next 3months
Usually day after demand data is posted.
Thank you for your reply.
if it is little movement,then it is no brainer, VB should be released by end of the day today. If it is significant then VB will be out tomorrow.
Damn this whole thing is causing lot of anxiety to me when I have nothing on stake. Do not know how you guys are handling this wait. :)
Anxiety is killing me and my colleagues here at work. I hope it has some good news for all of us.
yep lot of anxiety.hope to get the vb today. You got your gc already?
I found this site very helpful with a lot of useful info. My PD is Jan 08 and I am anxiously waiting to get current before oct for a lot of personal reasons. In someways this does suck a lot :(
Some of my friends are of the opinion that the movement will be significant (if not current). And some even expect significant movement in Aug bulletin. I will confess I just started following it recently and even though I am an engineer... I havent gotten myself around these numbers yet. To me its just like praying to god :)
CM,
GC Calculator assumes some number for spill over.
Do we know how many spill over were there for FY2011?
Okay, I guess that's it for today. I don't think government employees work past 4:47pm. The VB shall not be released today.
*closes browser*
I sent an email and I did not receive the password for enter to the predictions yet. How long take this procces?
I think USCIS is Shutdown 4 the Day
You will get it immediately on you sent "August 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions" in Subject level.. Thanks
As CM mentioned below in the comments, if the VB didnt have much movement , its a no brainer n it wud have been released today..So lets hope it has significant movement (Nov/Dec 2007 or early 2008) and hence the delay. We can hope!
Pre-adjudicated means those who are filed during few years ago but were not assigned visa numbers due to retrogression. For an application to be classified as 'Pre-adjudicated', all the background check and other necessary corrective action by VO should be completed and it should be ready to be approved once dates become Current. Just a Left mouse button click away from approval :)
Chances are good.
Just one more day and you should be current.
Chances are 50:50 for you. If dates will reach July 2007 in September 2011 and would not move beyond then we might have to wait until start of Q3 2012. Lets hope for the best and be ready for the worst.
My Priority date is Sep 2007. Any chances getting current in Aug or Sep visa bulletin. I used the calculator. Didn't get the right now.. giving 3 years plus..
You are absolutely correct. Only cases that can be approved will be PDs until July 2007 and all the CP cases until which DOS will move dates. Only reason to move dates beyond July 2007 will not be to approve newly filed cases but to approve handful CP cases and use those unused cisa number. Any remaiing visa numbers, I still believe will be used by EB3 category for pre-adjudicated cases. Hence this bulletin is the best mileage we can expect for EB2-IC. In September bulletin some numbers will be used for EB3 category and some for CP cases and other remaining EB2-IC pre-adjudicated cases.
There is no legal binding as long as DOS/USCIS/NVC can show they made genuine effort. Congress hates them if they use more than allocated visas but not less. It is alright.
Based on "estimated total number of visas available" released today, China+AllOtherCountries (E1+E2+E4+E5)=(2803+2803+691+2803+2803+696+695=13294). This is on the 1st page of August 2011 demand data released today. Do you think China still has 2803 under EB2? Is this the basis for your comment on reduction in EB2-ROW numbers? Please explain. Thank you for keeping us updated.
My Priority date is Mar 2010 EB2. What are my chances of getting my EAD ?
Based on demand data released, used spillover for this fiscal year used so far = (29,425 - 10,450) + 9500 - 5600= 28475- 5600 = 22,875. These 22, 875 came from 12000 EB1 and 8000 EB5 and 2875 from EB2-ROW for simplicity. This makes me wonders at most we have now 6k from EB2-ROW and 6K from EB1, i.e. 12K. But EB5 in actuality as per released data may consume 6K so in that case we will have only 10K left enough to reach July 2007. I have to look at these numbers with fresh look tomorrow morning. Am I missing something?
CAn you answer this CM....Mine is end of 2010...so it will just give an idea how long wait would be....Tnx in advance..
Not for this year for sure.
I know it would not be this year :(...as you were doing caluculations for quit some time...saw you analysis...most of the time it is near ....just wanted to know how long the wait would be...i meant in years....based on current scenario...tnx for your reply :)
CM, thank you and I will wait for your comment on the coming VB tomorrow.
Dear CM:
Thank you and I will wait for the VB and look forward to read your comment.
Any chance for EAD next year for 2010 PD's
CM,
Could you please answer for this.. Thanks..
Hi CM,
I went through your analysis written in various segments against questions posed by various people. Do you think that end of July 2007 can be achieved in this August bulletin or it may trickle in to next year? Your analysis has been to the mark and I believe positive outcome would be achieved for everyone in the coming bulletin.
You will get you GC in 3 to 4 years
thanks CM.
My PD is 10APR2007...August VB will be out any time soon. I am having butterflies in my stomach.
Please use our GC calculator. It can estimate wait tiem for you.
Are you Eb2-IC?
I belive it depends upon unused visa number available. If available numbers are only 10k then we might see last week of June to first week of July 2007 PD. If unused visa numbers are around 12K or so then yes there will be maximum mvoement in this bulletin. Somewhere around second or third week of July 2007 or even more than that.
haha.... you should be current... just relax.
Not anytime soon unless DOS strategy is to make category current.
For this fiscal year upto today 22,825 visa numbers are used excluding 5600 annual limit for EB2-IC.
Wish you good luck. if it is gonna reach anywhere near your PD, it has to be August Bulletin.
It is suprising that the VB has not been out yet.
No that is not whyI said that. Numbers you quoted are annual limit for each category. This was said by my firend at law form. After going back and looking at demand data, I do not see any correlation to what he suggested on EB2-ROW. There is similar demand like last 2-3 months. God knows what he meant by that or if he has any inside information.
Later it is released, better the news it will bring. :)
same here.... mine is 12th april. Lets hope for the best.
August VB is out :
EB2 INDIA 15APR07
EB3 INDIA 08JUL04
CM,
MY PD IS IN APRIL 2007. I have gotten my labour certificate. will it make any difference in the processing time once my pd is current.
or to get labor certificate is part of process before pd becomes current for everyone.
JD where did you see it
08JUL04 is for China.
India's EB3 cuttoff is 01JUN02
got it - too bad
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_August2011.pdf
yes from India
If this is the released visa bulletin then that is it for EB2-IC for this fiscal year. Atmost expect PD May 2007.
EB3_I has received spillover unused visa numbers.
August Bulletin posted officially now on website - http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html
Agree - that too looks very optimistic now. Too bad. yet to digest the news :)
bulletin realsed... EB2 India 15APR07
EB3 01JUN02
One of the few reasons for les EB2-IC movement could be lot of new aplications with dependents and some new cases that missed boat on July 2007. Others could be increase in some posting numbers. EB2-IC only used 4000-4500 unused visa numbers.
Correction , EB3- India did not use spillover but accounted for reduced inventory or demand data due to ported cases. Happy for EB3-India.
For September - We can expect more 4000 at most of EB2-IC.
EB2-ROW and EB1 just yielded/ or yield more 8000 unused visa numbers for August and September. 4000 already used and remaining 4000 will be used next month.
Can you explain in English what it will transpire to in the next bulletin? :)
CM, What about taking demand for next spill over season?
Hi CM, did they withdraw the Aug bulletin? I swear I saw it on their website 15 mins ago but it seems they reverted back to July as the current bulletin....
Aug VB has become unavailable, whats going on?
i am unable to see the VB for August now... It again says August (coming soon)...
can someone please check.... what is happening here? i am confused?
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html
Is the August VB released or not? CB please reply
i saw it too..
In plain english means another 2000-4000 can take dates anywhere between May 2007- 01July 2007. Last week of June 2007 is the best case for this fiscal year,
why is the link for Aug 2011 VB removed on visa bulletin site?
Looks like that. Cannot see that as well.
Hi CM,
EB2 India , Priority Date of Dec 2007 ,With this low movement , what's your analysis/ forecast realistically?
I was really hoping that EB2 PD will see a big swing at least till end of 2007 or early 08 by end of this fiscal 2011 , and it does not look very promising ? ...Does it seem like there is bound to be disappointment in the coming few months aswell with high demand for EB2 ROW and PWMB higher and potentially Eb3 to Eb2 conversions.
I'm up for 6 yr H1B extension mid next year was really hoping I would be able to apply 485 and get EAD and get out of H1b shackles.
Your thoughts are highly appreciated .
It is wierd...why is it removed...
This was the link that was posted earlier...
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html
wish there will be more movement... praying to god.
Do not know. may be trying to change April 07 to April 08. Who knows? May be trying to add some more verbiage.
Realistically if this true and VB is released unchanged then nothing more than late June 2007 for this fiscal year. Then PWMBs will keep USCIS occupied for next fiscal year until Q3. December 2007 will then only be possible in late FY 2012 in Q4.
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