August 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions
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Note : In EB2-IC predictions, please read EB3-ROW as EB2-ROW.
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524 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 401 – 524 of 524 Newer› Newest»Are we sure that the Bulletin is out and the dates for EB2-IC is confirmed as 15-Apr-07?
Here is the link to the Aug 11 bulletin
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html
The link is no longer available from their Bulletin page, but can be accessed using the URL above. According to it EB2-IC is 15APR07 and EB3 India is 01JUN02.
The link has been removed now. Maybe they are trying to fix some errors. Who knows.
Hope the news is for employement based ....:)
Hi CM, Another failed prediction (this is 4 straight failed predection, let's wait for Sep now)
thank you sir - for the clarification
good then stopping coming to this website :) .
It is all number game for EB2-IC. Any change in demand will affect pillover each and everyday. All we can do is put some calculations out and hope it becomes true.
Thanks CM for your inputs. We will continue looking for any updates to your analysis ...But hey great job man ...in the past 8 yrs i been in US , never really cared much about keeping myslef up to date but as the dates began closing in , optimism and anxiety took over ...and for once I'm one of those crazy enthusisast who is scorching the web for any hint of good news...thanks on behalf of H1 community to you for your work..
CM, thank you for your predictions. No one thought EB3- Mexico will reach 01 November 2005 same as EB3 - ROW. You predicted it right.
Anu, Thats very rude!! CM is crunching numbers to come up with the predictions. Please note that he does not have all the data realtime, most of the data published by USCIS/DOS is a snapshot atleast few weeks old..
He is doing a phenomenal job in answering all the questions promptly. Please don't criticize negatively if you dont want to appreciate
Can anyone guess why the Eb2 IC AUg bulletin is removed ? Has it occurred anytime before ?.....IS this any indication of anything ......
Probably to fix an error. They yanked it as soon as they could, but not before a whole lot of us managed to click on the link.
Here is a direct link if you want - http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html
Never seen this before. Indication of error in the VB.
I doubt if anything for Eb2 IC will change. It could be any text error or anything ... best error fixing would to change Eb2 IC from 07 to 08 ...LOL.
Haha, wishful thinking.
Agree with Jay . Anu, CM is not working for USCIS . If he really had the power , he would have made it current for all. Atleast you have a platform now to engage and understand the nuances . CM also is not waiting for GC and yet he is giving so much of his time.
Please be sensitive to comments since the service is for free.
Anu, Stay away from here. Have you ever contributed anything for immigration community other than criticism.
CM is putting lot of time and effort to do the prediction based on the available data. STOP CRITICIZING.
Guys why are you getting frustrated by comment and saying stop coming on this site ....
This is my observation, which I just wrote. I love coming to this blog and reading replies.
hi guys,
the dates for aug 2011 are posted on wikkipedia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priority_date
i dont know why they removed bulletine.
I bet 5 bucks that the dates will change when bulletin is made avalible again :)
Agree completely, we should be appreciative of CM's help!
They are posted on wikipedia..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priority_date
more or less it is confirmed..
Any one confirm, cutoff date of Apr15 2007 implies persons with PD of Apr15 20017 can also apply?? Thanks.
CM,
MY PD is current now.
I assume it should take 4-6 months. I have gotten my labour certificate in 07.
let me know if 4-6 months is the wait time or it could be more.?
How long do you think it will take for them to correct the error and release the bulletin?
No only those before 15 April 2007 can apply.
Oh come on, is that the only amount you can gamble for getting current?
Just kidding. :)
Thanks CM. Really appreciate ur work..
I would think 6 months maximum and 3 months minimum.
Are you sure its 3 months minimum? I've been following threads on murthyforum, and a lot of people have been getting approved (and some even cards in hand) in 2-3 weeks.
I think what you are saying for already file I-485 cases in July 2007 which are pre-adjudicated. I believe this person has LC cleared in 2007 and I-140 sometime later but will file new I-485 case in August.
Oh right. Totally forgot about that.
I've been even seeing people with pending RFEs since 2009 get approved within 2-3 weeks. But I forgot that their I-485's have already been applied in 2007.
History repeats itself. It happened exactly 4 years ago. :-)
Is there a possibility of EB-2 becoming current by end of year, considering that the demand data shows only 6.5k for India
What is demand data and how is it used?
In Wikipedia, only the August 2011 VB for EB-2 is specified, but EB-3 list had only July 2011 PD's. So does that mean there will be any difference in EB-3 dates for August VB and EB-2 will remain the same as 15 April 07.
Wish they change the year of EB2 from April 07 to 08. But i guess that is almost impossible. At least July 07 makes sense according to the predictions of CM.
probably tomorrow they will fix the link
Am sure you know Wikipedia is a open site. Even you can go and update content there. USCIS has got connection to the validaty of the data there. So do not make conclusions by analyzing the data there
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html
Will put down 2 zeros next to that number if i get current : ) lol
Ha ha...what ever Aug 2011 bulleton will...it looks like USCIS playing with people emotions here.....
what do u mean by uscis has got connection (wikipedia) to the validity of the data there?
It means USCIS does not care whats on this site :)
ok...thats wat i thought..u just missed the 'no' connection : )
Aug bulletin is back. No changes to EB2I than what we saw previously.
Link is working now, no further changes to the morning's news.
This is what it says now!!
Sep - coming soon !!
The Visa Bulletin offers valuable information about immigration*. Click on the appropriate link below to find the desired bulletin.
Upcoming month's visa bulletin: September 2011 (Coming Soon)
This month's visa bulletin: August 2011
Archived visa bulletins: July 2011 and before
whats wrong with our math??
August VB is now available in the same link and it is the same dates of EB-2 and EB-3 as this morning.
good luck for all those who are waiting. hope there will be good movement in the next bulletin.
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html
oh man, this wait is killing me. I hope there is some change in the dates.
yep - time to move ahead and think about the September VB :)
CM , I think this time your friend was right on saying 'expect little movement'. Guess thats it for Aug n Sep may have similar picture..
My PD (March 12th 2007) became current. I missed I-485 in 2007 fiasco. My I-140 also approved. All the documents are ready.
CM, Any idea how long it may take for me to get green card (approxomately). Appreciate your time.
just tired of the wait.My PD is Oct2007...been waiting forever.
Hope this moves in the next bulletin.
My PD is close behind u and share the frustration . It seems to me realistically it will be end of next year to see big swings. I'm just frustrated to see the stagnation of movement for until a year....I wish USCIS would charge some service fee from h1B guys every year and hire more consultants to process the demand and move the dates by big margins and atleast allow people to file 485 and get EADs and then retro and people wont mind waiting . ...well all we can dream :-)
Are there any legislative bills in congress or senate right now that might bring some reprieve to India and China EB categories ? I think CIR is hopeless since legal immigration reform is bundled with in that and there is no way for it to move for next couple of years ?
I think the VB will have a bigger movement when September VB is available as USCIS this time is very cautious about using the rest of spillover. They would wait until Aug 13 or 14 to release all the rest unused visas just for covering their back and avoid making big turmoil as they did in 2007. Let's hope AUG would give us a surprise. btw wondering when USCIS will open the gate to build their inventory of 485
I didn't find any response from CM after the final release of August VB yet. I am eager to read his valuable opion and analysis shortly.
As we know CM has provided numerous free advices and spent so much time on this free blog.
Lets all support CM and encourage him to continue help everyone like before.
CM, can you ignore some rude and annoying post and put out your analysis asap?
Absolutely agree . Cant believe how some of these guys think ? If folks dont like what they see , they might aswell just pay some immigration attorney to crunch the numbers.
CM, please dont go about explaining to people that dont deserve a response. Keep up good work
I am just guessing that the link of VB was shortly taken down and posted again without any date changed is suspicious. it might because USCIS does not want to admit their mistake and make themselves look bad. so they decide to correct it in next month? Just guessing.
By the way, CM's analysis is very informative and helped me better plan my paper work. Second eb2c, I am also eager to read the new post from CM. Thank you CM for all good work you did here.
Thats some rudeness again, no one should ask you to not visit the blog. Also, CM's previous predictions have been good..
Hey guys please dont worry, I have learned through this process with cheers come criticism and it will not hold me back from doing what I like. I was not able to put anything together because lots of meeting today but I will try to summarize everything by evening.
keep up the good work CM...
3-6 months, I would think if you will not receive any RFE.
Looks like that. This time he was dead on little movement.
Thing that is wrong with our math is that we were being too optimistic about spillover numbers. I personally belive EB5 visa usage could be culprit.
Demand Data is number released by DOS to issue Visa Bulletin. It tells you how many people are waiting to just receive visa numbers and ready to process for approval. It includes USCIS and NVC demand.
Realistically there is no chance now for this year.
Please feel free to comment in here, predictions ar just for guidance based on educated guess but nothing that is carved in stone and will convert for sure.
Jay they might not do for this year but will start doing in later quarters in FY 2012. It all depends where dates will end up in September. I do not expect anything more than 01 July 2007.
If someone is not good in making accurate predictions, they should not get involved with this. Its nothing more than throwing a dice and raising aspirations and hopes of several people. All the best for Sept bulletin !
Its an informative discussion here on this forum n predictions r just that, predictions : ) So chill..
Dude!!!
Like I said earlier CM is doing a lot of work coming up with the predictions!! He has already let us know that August and September are mainly dependant on how DOS wants to handle it. So please dont raise your own hopes by taking it blindly. Try to understand the numbers behind it
We should understand that EB2-IC is not world for everyone. There are other country and categories that use these predictions as guidelines. With other categories we have been very successful as it is easy to see visible demand and estimate CP demand. There is no spillover involved.
EB2-IC is more data constrained due to no published EB1 and EB2-ROW demand. All we can do is estimate demand from published data. It is too bad DOS/USCIS are not transparent with visa usage. So all we can do is estimate. All we can do is estimate and we will keep on doing that. It is upto you to take them as grain of salt. This si the only reason those predictions are password controlled and you should look at them (or send email) if you do not believe in them.
Keep up your good work CM.You dont have to justify, as in this is free discussion website, its up to people to decide how to interpret the information.
CM Man , you gotta put a disclaimer acknowledgment somewhere for the predictions to ensure you keep some negative emotions under check
correct or not, people love predictions. Besides CM has explained the math that nobody else has ever done before. Take the predictions with a pinch of salt and chill !!! Thanks CM for keeping us all realistic. Before you it was as unpredictable as an earthquake.
CM,
I agree with your statement and I would like to make readers aware that this as stated by you is prediction and not something written on stone. If someone can not himself or herself do the math then they do not have right to pass on negative comments also.
I respect your hard work, your thoughts and perseverance to present to us some insight to GC approval progression year by year.
Best Regards
PBTX
you are one awesome guy bleeding green :) if I Where in a poistion to give you GC,I would have given it to you before any one else in the world :)
I would like to remind people that CM's predictions for overall FY2011 movement are right on the mark. If movement in one or two months is not what was predicted, it does not invalidate overall prediction.
Your an angel. Thanks for your thoughts about the visa bulletin.
Hi all..
Hi all...Dont know how people take up predictions...One thing CM i can tell is this form gave me better understading how the process is...Just can Tnx you for putting up this effort...In this busy world...Doing something for others benefit should be apprecaited by each one of us using this form...
Hi Mr CM... Fantastic Website -- it has become my standard go-to before and after the bulletins are out..great job!
Any opinions on a September 5th, 2007 EB2-I PD? Chances of becoming current this calender year?
thanks
Along with form 485 you have to give all I94 forms used to enter US, I don't have all I94s with me since you have to hand them over at the airport when you go outside US. What should I do?
Thanks
SS
When did this requirement happen? I believe you only need to have the dates when you entered in United States starting from 1st time for e.g. when you either entered as student.
You do not need all the I-94 copies and no one should even ask for the same. You should have the copy of latest I-94 when you entered last. That should be sufficient.
Well, Seemingly you are EB2 .Count yourself lucky.I am EB3 India and have a PD of Aug 2002.Approx 9 years of waiting.Don't know how many more to go........
Thanks the useful comment. I feel bad on my birth as Indian. Had it been some other country, i would have been either happy in that country or quick GC.
CM, I have a question here: can you please explain why the EB2 IC has been moved to August 1, 2006 in September 2008 VB? Soon after that, it went back for several years in Oct 2008 VB. Basically, in 3 years since then, it has moved forward about only 8 mo. Something like that might happen again this time you think? or there will not be much backward movement? Would like to have your idea on this issue...
CM, dont' worry about noises. It may be other website host that are jealous that you have attracted so many readers here. Also any knowledgeable people should know that NO ONE can accurately predict the unpredicatable VB movement. What we get from different soureces are just for reference and if the prediction is in line with the movement and it is not way off or contradiction, we should think that it is useful. We didn't waster our time and efforts reading and chatting here.
If it is way off, we should not be irrespectful because all is free and we also got other valuable opionions which you have to pay consulting fee to get from you attoney. And even you get the same answer, it is not guaranteed as prompt as you get here.
CM, Some stupid attitude people will show this here. Can they show this attitude to their managers / attorney. Please forget this and excuse them.
To be frank, before i looked in your blog. I was zero. I learned a lot from this blog.
Finally i am happy today that my priority date become current.
Thanks for your all help. Please continue the same support you provied to others as i know the pain in waiting.
Great Job CM
CM: Many readers are with you and wait for your analysis. Thank you in advance.
My sense of slow movement in August is not necessarily a bad indication because:
1. USCIS need time to process huge # of applicants based on movement in last two months.
2. DoS and USCIS apparently communicated about August VB and are very prudent.
3. I didn't see warning signs in the Aug.VB. So there is no indication of retrogression in the next VB.
One thing I am curious is:
Why NVC send notice to people whose cutoff date in 1st Q of 2008 and some in Jun. 2008 based on some post here. Is that false info? Or may it happen in the final month of Fiscal 11?
CM and other gurus, please share.
Thank you.
Hi cm,
without your predictions and posts and all the comments from our readers I think this waiting period would be tragic.. I am very proud our your effort and work. Friends
don't forget that CM always said expect slow movement in his previous analysis. He has no magic ball either so please be supportive of CMs work. Don't post discouraging comments! let's all hope for the best and
find happiness in what we have. Whatever happens everything is for our good..
CM,
Nobody can really predict or control the future and incase someone could do this, then that person is either GOD or GOD ha ha :)
On a serious note, I think you do a WONDERFUL job and you need not worry about the negative comments. Like we have said before (me and several other folks), you take time out (of your personal things) and help with questions and other analysis and we really appreciate it. Thank you much.
As for people complaining and being negative, I believe these folks are frustrated with this whole immigration mess and just venting. Never mind.
All of us need to forgive such behavior and keep chugging ahead. Please don't make this forum a personal attack arena. Let's just get together and maybe do something constructive to help with this mess.
As per my 2 cents worth of thought/suggestion:
We, all EB2 and EB3 folks need to mobilize. All the labor/I140/485 approved folks need to send out our information to a centralized location, and all this data need to be input in a safe Secure database.
This database then should be used by a paid or unpaid immigration lobby (some trust worthy firm like Murthy/ Shusterman / Khanna / Willy / Esani & Momin etc).
(The above lawyer's I mentioned are the one's I follow and a personal opinion)
This lobby then goes to the government/uscis/dhs and works on what they can do for us (the EDUCATED and well paid FUTURE VOTE BANK).
In every walk of life, we make a difference in the society we live in and we need to be rewarded in TIMELY fashion.
Plus by seeing all this centralized data maybe the govt might actually feel like doing something.
Lobbies work, they always do a better job than us going alone.
Please comment if you like/dislike this idea. Looking forward to the feedback, god bless.
inceptiontobey@gmail.com
hello!!.. CM..this is choy we found out that our priority date is now current for Augsut visa bulliten.. thanks for the update. now i just want to know how many weeks we get our interview in US embassy? when August came.. thank you so much.. Choy
hi choy. like u, my PD is current per August VB. thank God. CM, you really are a great help to us.... thank you sooo much.
like choy, i would also like to ask for the approximate date of our interview at the US embassy and may i also inquire if what are the necessary documents we need to prepare for the said interview. your guidance will surely be a great help to us.
thanks.
godbless everyone!
-abbie-
Sorry i was caught up last evenening so could not summarize visa bulletin. I will do it by tonight.
in the meantime thank you for all your support. Going forward we will moderate comments so that we do not waste precious little time that we all have , which could be used towards more number crunching and useful discussion on questions we all have. When I started this blog 2.5 years ago, I was really disappointed by murthy forum where your inputs were moderated thus losing the essence of the conversation but now I can understand how they could cause hinderance to useful discussion.
CM, great idea.
But a suggestion - Instead of moderating replies, I think it would be better to let anyone post, but delete the ones that don't contribute to the discussion. That way the flow of the discussion would still make sense, and it would take the same amount of moderation effort.
Agree so comments will be moderated only after posting. For posted comment to appear in here, it will not require moderation. Moderation will only happen when added comment does not add value to any conversation.
So this new budget thing going on in Congress may stop visa processing altogether after August 2nd, if they don't come up with a compromise. Then it won't matter if you're current or not.
That makes me a sad panda :(
I believe it may not affect USCIS as they do not rely on this budget. Majority of the funding for USCIS comes from fees that we pay.
Choy..my friend..congratulation to you and your wife for being current. I hope as this time you ahve sorted your employer issue.
Usually you should receive interview date anytime in August. They can send you letter on appointment date starting today. Good Luck.
You will have only one I94 form with. Every time you travel out side US, you are supposed to return your I94. Or Officials at the airport are supposed to collect it.
I think most fo the documents that was send to NVC with packet 3 should be sufficient. They might not need any more documents, other than employment verification/offer letter. In any case you should carry all the originals that were initially sent to NVC.
thank you so much Cm you are a big help to us dreaming to have that visa. u mean is just a few weeks in august we recieve our letter on appointment date? we wait for the employer email whats news for us.. thanks
That is good...as you told it takes more than 5-6hrs for your comment to be published...
What will I be asked at the interview?
Generally, the consular officer will review the information you have submitted in Visa Packets III and IV. They may ask you the samequestions again or may seek clarification. Typically, they will ask questions about your job, your employer and your immigration history in the
U.S.
9. Can I change jobs prior to the interview?
If your immigrant visa application is based on an offer of employment, you should not change jobs prior to the interview.
10. What documents do I need to take to the interview?
All applicants must submit certain personal documents such as passports, birth certificates, police certificates, and other civil documents, as well as evidence that they will not become public charges of the United States. Please bring original documents such as degrees, diplomas,
and transcripts. You will receive a list of documents you will need from the NVC, U.S. Consulate, and our office. You may also want to check the U.S. Consulate’s website where you will be interviewed for information.
If you are quoting this from your attorney's requirement then all they need is dates when you went out and come back in the country just to see if you maintained status and you are eligible for AOS. Any discrepancy in that needs to be handled. Other than that you only need your last I-94 form, card and status of last entry to US. That is it.
May be you should ask everyone to use the forum!! The comments are getting to messy to track when you reply
Hi CM
You think june08 will b current by Sep12 bulletin for eb2I
Thanx for all ur work...
AD
nice prediction do you have any idea if there is chance at all to be current this year??
Thanks a lot CM and everyone else. My doubt is clarified.
SS
Should we cloe this thread for comments now? Please continue comments in DemandData post and then in new visa bulletin post that will be up tonight. I would reply to comments but thread will be closed for now. We already ahve 500 or more comments and it is difficult to keep track of that.
Somewhere in Q2-Q3 in FY 2012.
I am not optimistic. It will not be current for sure.
Only bill I think that can be useful is one from Rep Lofgren to overhaul whole immigrationn system and has good recommendation for EB community. We should support such bills.
I understand your pain and hope you will get current soon. It was nice to see EB3-I jumped by a month in this bulletin.
Unless dates cross July 2007 PD, there will no retrogression for next year.
Congratulation on getting current. Appreciate your kind words. Good Luck.
You raised a good point on working together to build strong lobby for immigrant community. Reg Lofregen's bill is very interesting, I will recommend everyone supporting that. Even removing dependents from using visa numbers, reduces our wait time by 3 times.
only thing with forum is that as of now is hosted on nabble and we do not know how good it is. I am always worried one day it will stop worrying. Once we will mvoe to our own domain next year, we can use VBulletin.
Current is not possible for sometime now.
hi CM,
I am an Indian born canadian citizen. If I apply for green card through my US based employer, my file will be process under what category? I mean India or canada?
Thanks a lot
Nidhi
You will be charged under India as it is your country of birth. only exception is if your spouse is born in different country. There are other exceptions if your parents held different country's citizenship and you were born during their short trip to India.
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