Monday, January 23, 2012

EB Category FY 2012 Demand Upto January 2012 & Visa-Use Budget

Monday, January 23, 2012 | , , , , , , , ,

 As per recently released USCIS Dashboard data on I-485 Receipts, here is the estimation of demand for each category for the month of Novemberr 2011. Please see this article to understand how to read this table. Based on past experience, usually 2x or 3x representation of EB2-IC on trackitt is fair estimation.

Visa Use Budget and Current EB category demand

From  the available data, please see total EB category demand for visas upto January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We used the available data also to estimate Visa-use Budget upto January 2012.

Rollover Demand - See this article 
October Demand - See this article

Please note that December and January Demand is calculated from trackitt using factor of 13. This is still an estimation. January 2012 demand is prorated from current data based on 31 days.

Visa use is calculated based on numbers that are used upto today. Please add all the numbers that are circled in red to estimate current visa use.

 Visa use upto January 2012 =  6461 + 8000 + 4805 + 8012 + 1131 + 13468 = 41,877

Please note EB1 use looks high for this quarter only because of high rollover from previous year. If current trend continues then we can expect some more spillover from EB1. This may be the reason that Mr O. is quoting less demand for EB1. We would need to see if trackitt trend will shift due to more new EB1 filings as  year progresses.. EB2-ROW demand does not make sense based on trackitt data. We will like to see more PERM data for Q1 FY 2012 to make this conclusion. Please note that we need more 60K demand from today to use EB annual quota completely. This is based on assumption that EB4 and EB5 may not yield much spillover. Low EB2-ROW consumption could be accounted  to the delays in PERM processing. This may pick up with time.

If any of the trends for EB1 and EB2-ROW is true and will continue like this for few more months, retrogression is not possible until summer. Even if retrogression will happen in such case, I doubt it will go anywhere in late 2008 or may even stall at PD 2009. This looks too good to be true but for now this scenario cannot be discarded. Surprising data that unfolded due to trackitt trend is an eye-opener. Lets watch inventory and I-485 filing receipts for few more months. So far things looks good for EB2-IC (that means less retrogression).

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Arjun_sx said...

Do you think dates will make forward movement into late 2010? Please advice. Can the PDs advance late in october 2012 incase it stalls now..

Kksbmi said...

If all those giant leaps, and backlogs, yielded only 60K, I am sure they need to go for another big jump for whole of 2010 PD where there is high density. They would need to do this sooner rather than later to ensure they do not lose visa for the year. USCIS takes 6 months, so the time runs out in March.

Whatever happened to 2-yr Inventory Pipeline?

Also, why no one other than CM appears to be taking EB demand as 27% of TSC and Nebraska I-485 receipts? Others take it at almost 100%.

GCWAITER said...


Excellent Analysis!

Given this sort of forward movement over past few months would like to know how long it would take for i-485 approval from NSC with PD: Sep2007 and have applied in first week of November 2011. I am due for h1 extension at end of this year and would like to know the wait time. Please advise

May God Bless you

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Last year CP contribution was 122000/140000 = 12%. Above data was only for USCIS, if we add that 12% CP cases to above budget use we get number close to 34% of 140K.

So Visa use upto January 2012 = (6461 + 8000 + 4805 + 8012 + 1131)*1.12 + 13468 = 45,287

Jegan said...

Does this augur well for PD movement to later part of 2010 in EB2 category?

Spinner said...

CO will meet again with USCIS before determining the actual movement. I guess that would be in Feb 2012, by that time, USCIS should have all AOS/CP filings upto 31-Dec-2008 for EB2IC. That leaves one whole year(2009) of movement still unaccounted.

My 2cents, It will stall.

Withdave said...

Hi CM,

Firstly, thank you for yet another great article with detailed analysis.

Question on behalf of naive people in this field: Based on this article that you posted as well as the recent comments u posted on previous article:

Do you predict that there will be lots of I-485 approvals by end of February 2012 or all these data about visa number has nothing to do with that?

Finally personal question, My EB2-I, PD - Sept 28, 2007 and I-485 was filed on Nov 1st, 2011. Do you believe that I should get my GC some time this year?

Thanks in advance.

guest said...

Hi CM,
I came across this proposed rule for allowing certain H4 dependents to work.
What does the date signify in here.....Is it the start/end date to receive the comments. If it's accepted when can we see it in effect?

DaveD said...

Not sure why my previous comment did not show up:

Thank you for yet another great article CM. The stats and data looks positive in my understanding.

Here is a general question: Does these stats indicate that there will be lots of I-485 approvals by Feb 2012 end?

I am confused as I see big numbers for both pre-adjudicated cases awaiting visa number as well as pending cases for NSC and TSC. I am not sure whether all that is taken into account in all these calculations.

Question for my case: My EB2-I (NSC) PD - Sep 28 2007. Filed for AOS on November 1, 2011. When do you believe I should get my GC, any time this year?

Thanks in advance.

Aspirant said...

I've seen this proposed rule in last year July in Here is the text from the site about this proposed rule.
07/07/2011: Interesting USCIS Idea Looming up on the Horizon to Make a Rule to Allow EAD to H-4 Spouses of H-1B Professionals Working Under AC 21 Sections 104(c) or 106(a)

The USCIS is considering to initiate a proposed rule next March 2012 to extend the availability of EAD to H-4 dependent spouses of principal H-1B nonimmigrant’s who have begun the process of seeking lawful permanent resident (LPR) status through employment and have extended their authorized period of admission or "stay" in the U.S. under section 104(c) or 106(a) of AC 21 (Public Law 106-313). Apparently this concept is conceived to allow the eligible class of H-4 dependent spouses to work and thereby encourage professionals with high demand skills to remain in the country and help spur the innovation and growth of U.S. companies, and thus allow the United States to remain a world leader in high technology. Very stimulating idea! This may be perceived as an administrative fix of the broken employment-based immigration system. It will certainly help to stop ongoing reverse exodus of these talented foreign professionals, particularly from California, to their home countries. We will watch how far and how fast this concept will move ahead. Please stay tuned to this website for development of this news.
Again on 23rd Jan -12

01/23/2012: Apparent No Change in the USCIS Intent to Propose Certain H-4 EAD

We reported earlier that the USCIS was considering employment authorization to H-4 dependent spouses of principal H-1B nonimmigrant’s who have begun the process of seeking lawful permanent resident status through employment and have extended their authorized period of admission or "stay" in the U.S. under AC-21 104(c) three-year increment H-1B extension upon approval of I-140 petition or AC-21 106(a) one-year increment H-1B extension upon filing of foreign labor certification application (so-called 7th year extension rule) in order to encourage the H-1B professionals with high demand skills to remain in the country and help spur the innovation and growth of U.S. companies. It appears there is no change for this plan and may be initiate the rule-making process soon. Currently the spouses of multi-national corporation's intra-company transferee (L-1) visa spouses are given EAD if they want to work to encourage international business for the economic growth of this country. Please stay tuned

What I understand from the above text is this proposed rule is going to be initiated in the coming March.

I am eagerly waiting for the start date as my wife is going out of work in next month as her 6th year H1b is expiring in next month (Her employer did not initiate a GC process as promised 5 years back) and I still do not have EAD yet (because of HR mistake, I ended up losing my 02/09 PD and they filed again on 08/10, hoping that I will be current in next 1 or 2 bulletins)

Trim said...

I just read EB2 March 2012 predictions on another website:

"The U.S. Department of State (DOS) Visa Office has confirmed that EB2 priority dates will advance again in the March 2012 Visa Bulletin. The exact amount of forward movement is not yet known, as it largely depends upon case filing rates. The DOS projects that the EB2 cutoff dates will move by at least a few months in March 2012. The DOS estimates that an advance of as much as six months could occur. They stated that it is unlikely that the dates will advance by a full year. Updates on this important topic will be reported to MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers as reliable information becomes available. "

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I do not think so unless Mr O. will make such movement in march 2012. After March 2012, any more demand generation is not useful for this year.

Recent processing time updates for TSC is 8.5 months. In a way USCIS is saying you can move dates as much as you can we will not process them as we are done with the intake for the year.this is our capacity. So March 2012 is the only hope.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I think for next VB movement we should only concentrate on 30K EB2-IC visa use demand. Next movement around 2-6 month will bring in more 3k-6k demand. This will be enough for Mr O. for this year will all the spillover from EB1 and EB2 ROW. We should also not forget that Mr O. Recently mentioned that he has better estimation of demand after September 2010 based on I-140. It seems their systems are more aligned after September 2010. As of now he is just moving dates based on projections.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

NSC processing time is still at 4 months. SO you should see approval soon.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

does not augur well for is year but definitely for next year. For this year majority of visa numbers are taken by those 8000 backlog and 4500 PWMB. apart from this add some 1800 EB3-Eb2 porters. We are not even talking about them this year. But they are continuously using some visa numbers.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

I m doubtful it will stall for next VB just based on low EB1 demand. Else it should stall. Let's see. Nothing is impossible as you may know by now.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

TSC processing times does not look that great but we expect continuous approvals going forward for EB2-IC. Octobers will be taken care of soon as they are not more than 2200 applications. November should expect approvals starting March 2012

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Forget to add, you will receive GC this year no matter what.

Anonymous said...

You should get approval any time soon my pd was 31st October 2007 and I applied on novbember 3 rd I got my approval on jan 25th

eb2c said...

Dear CM:

Processing time just updated on USCIS website.

Can you explain the difference why the TSC processing time on USCIS showing I-485 03/24/2011 while green card tracking websites showing some approval from Oct 2011 Visa bulletin?

Your answer is appreciated and thank you in advance.


DaveD said...

Thank you sir, that is encouraging news after 5-6 years of wait.

CM_USNonImmigrants said...

Those updates are for last processed application for November 2011. USCIS processing updates are not real time. They always lag by 2 months from the posted date. There is always some confusion about if it is last processed application filing date or date of the oldest eligible case pending. I believe latter is true. So if you are seeing some later date application getting approved depending upon case and officer but it means TSC still have some cases in March which are pending. Hence it defines the processing dates.

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