August 2011 Visa Bulletin and Estimation for September 2011

August 2011 Visa Bulletin was released  yesterday For Employment-Based category, EB-3 overall saw some movement in cut-off dates for each country. EB2 is current for all other countries except India and China. EB-2 India-China advanced to 15th April 2007. EB1, EB4 and EB5 are still current. Some movement for Family-Based categories overall.

Family-Based

• Family 1st – FB1 remains unchanged across all regions at May 1, 2004 for ROW, China and India, at March 8, 1993 for Mexico and at April 15, 1996 for Philippines.
• Family 2A –FB2A moves forward by four (4) months to July 22, 2008 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by four and a half (4.5) months to June 1, 2008.
• Family 2B – FB2B ROW, China and India remains unchanged at July 1, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by only one (1) week to October 1, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to December 1, 2000..
• Family 3rd – most countries moved to August 2001; Philippines  to November 1992; Mexico retrogressed to April 1992.
• Family 4th – most countries moved to April 2000; Philippines stalled at 15 May 1988; Mexico stalled at March 1996.

Employment-Based

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current while EB-2 China and EB-2 India both move forward by almost five (5) weeks to April 15, 2007.
• EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to November 1 , 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by only one (1) week to July 8, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by one (1) month to June 1, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico moves forward by over five (5) months to November 1, 2005.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by over five (5) months to May 1, 2005 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.  It moves forward by one  (1) month to June 1, 2002 for India .
• Employment 4th – still current in all categories
• Employment 5th – still current in all categories

VISA AVAILABILITY Notes from August Visa Bulletin

Family-sponsored: Heavy applicant demand for numbers in the Family First preference could require retrogression of some of the September Family First preference cut-off dates. This action may be necessary to keep visa issuances within the respective annual preference numerical limits. If this were to occur they could be expected to return to the previous cut-off date for October, the first month of the new fiscal year.

Employment-based: No Notes !!!!


Determination of annual limit for this fiscal year
 
The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Sections 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On June 9th, USCIS provided the required data to VO. (Also hints why no demand data was released, since complete data from CIS was received on June 9th and July bulletin was released on June 8th.)

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2011 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2011 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 140,000

Under INA Section 202(a), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2011 the per-country limit is 25,620. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,320.

Our Analysis on EB Category after August Visa Bulletin Release

EB3-ROW-M-P - EB3 ROW moved by three weeks to November 01, 2005. As seen with last few months, EB3-ROW only used 1500 visas from the visible demand. EB3-Mexico has utilized 5085 visa numbers for this year and has reached same level as EB3-ROW-P. Going forward EB3-ROW-M-P will move together. Since EB-3 category will not receive any spillover, we expect EB3-M-P to move by 4 weeks to 01 December 2005 for this fiscal year. This movement is based on at least 3188  (ROW-2584 +  M-304 + P-300 ) available visa numbers for EB3-ROW-M-P together. Please note, since each of these countries shares sames cut-off date, going forward for next month at least, they will share same cut-off date.

EB3-India - EB3 India moved one month due to decrease in demand due to porting case. Decrease in demand was 500. This along with monthly limit of 233, allowed total movement of 733 (Inventory upto May - Inventory upto April = 2710-2050). Even if there is no further reduction in demand due to porting, we still expect EB3-India to reach 15th June 2002 for this fiscal year just using 233 number of visas.


EB3-China - EB3-China may only move by a week or two for the coming bulletin. It is difficult to gauge movement for EB3-China due to high volume of invisible CP demand.

EB2-India  &  China - We believe EB2 India and China advanced to 15 April 2007 by utilizing at least 2580 additional unused visa numbers from EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5.

Number of applicants from 08March07 to 15April07 

[26469 + (28498-26469)/2] - [24383 + (26469 – 24383)/4 ]

= 27484 – 24904

= 2580

Till date visas used for this movement

= 22,875 (used upto 08Mar07)  + 5,600 (annual quota) + 2,580 (used in this bulletin)

= 31,055

At this point of time we would like to revisit our potential spillover source for the current fiscal year. We know that EB1 was suppose to give us 12,000 unused visa. It was never clear to us whether it was  a half-yearly or full-yearly projected numbers. After June 2011 released inventory, EB2-ROW was projected to have demand around 26,600 - 28,600 annual, yielding around 6000-8000 unused visa numbers. As per recent released EB5 visa usage number, it was quoted that EB5 demand can be as high as 4,260, thus yielding only 9,400 4230 = 5170 unused visa numbers. So putting these together with 5,600 annual quota for EB2-IC, available visas for EB2-IC becomes

EB1 + EB2-ROW + EB5 + EB2-IC annual quota

= 12000 + 8000 + 5170 +5600

= 30,770

Now from this, all we can conclude is  for EB1, 12K was a projected demand for half year, but  real demand did not convert into 24K. On average, we were hoping to get more 6K from EB1.  But  looking at the current movement, numbers expected now can be anywhere from 3K-6K. Of these expected EB1 numbers, we have already used 500 (31,055 - 30,770).

EB5 usage has been  a very big disappointment (or tough one to digest) for this year ; instead of yielding 7000 unused visa, it would only yield(ed) 5170 visas.

Taking EB1 and EB5 demand into account, worst case movement for September bulletin will be based on use of 2,500 unused visa numbers while best case could be around the use of 5,500 unused visa numbers.

Once date will reach July 2007, new cases, PWMBs and some porting will slow down the movement for Q1 and early Q2. Like this year, we can expect significant movement of priority dates in late Q2 or early Q3 of FY 2012. Movement upto first quarter of 2008 is possible with some retrogression in late Q3. We should remember NVC fee bill is valid upto one year.

Update from www.mitbbs.com

On 18th July there was some update on this site that where they mentioned that someone talked to Mr. Oppenheim through FOIA  or other means (please excuse my translation) and he mentioned that up until now only 121000 visas were used for EB category and at least 19k is still to be used in coming months.

The news on 19K visas available was confirmed in two ways as below

Method A

As per recent data released by USCIS until March 2011 for I-485- Employment Based.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf

I-485 Employment Adjustment upto March 2011 approvals are 45,981. At this rate , aprovals for I-485 for full year becomes, 91,962. Adding unused visa numbers used so far, total EB visas used for this year becomes 91962+30000 (SO used so far) = 121,962. So atleast 19K looks is still left from whole fiscal year. This suggest published information on www.mitbbs.com is very authentic and we might have anywhere from 12k-19k total EB visas avaiable for EB category for September.No CP demand included.


Method B

As per data that was released by USCIS day before yesterday -http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Application-for-Benefits/applications-for-benefits-2011-may.pdf , it suggests total I-485 application to adjust status received until May 2011 are 47,721.

Based on previously released USCIS Approval/Receipt information until March 2011;

I-485 Approved were – 45,981
I-485 Received were – 36,492
Approval/Receipt ratio – 1.26

Assuming same ratio for this newly released data until May 2011 – Approvals can be near – 1.26 x 47,721 = 60,128.This is for 8 months. 

For full year FY2011 – it becomes 12 x 60,128/8 = 90,192.

Again adding spillover used so far, total consumption becomes = 90,192 + 30,000 = 120,192

So visas available for September bulletin, again becomes 140,000 – 120,192 ~ 19K.

Other way to validate 19K news from www.mitbbs.com

Note - It does not include CP demand.

Out of these 19K how much can we expect for EB2-IC?

In above calculations we have not included any CP demand in this. CP demand can be anywhere from 5%-15%. Taking 5%, CP demand will make these 121,000 used EB visa number for FY 2011 until now to 127,000 visas used for EB category after including AOS + CP demand.

Then we should also remember that as per released USCIS data, I-140 stats until March 2011 suggests that for 42,096 receipts, there were only 30,820 approvals. So even if we assume that this difference was constantly maintained for entire year, there are still chances some of these 12000 would contain EB2-ROWs. Some of these remaining visa numbers from 19K will be used for such cases when they will be approved and become documentarily qualified. Even if 10% of these are EB2-ROW, we can have 1200 demand from EB2-ROW. Then addition to this we also have usual monthly demand for EB2-ROW, which can be anywhere from 500 -1500.

We do not know anything about EB1 demand. At this point when USCIS processing time has reduced to 4 months, we can see some of these EB1s can get attention. These EB1 approvals will take some visa numbers. I think in month of August, we can see many EB1 approvals as movement for EB2-IC is only 5 weeks for August bulletin. In addition with reduced backlog, some good numbers of EB1 approvals are expected in August.

In general EB3 demand for a month can be anywhere from 2400 + 4(233) = 3332.

So now if we will consider all these aspects, what EB2-IC can expect is

= 19000 - (CP + EB2-ROW(due to I-140) + regular EB2-ROW + EB1 + EB3) demand

= 19000 - (6000 + 1200 + 1000 + 1000 + 3332) = 6468

Thus numbers available for EB2-IC can be anywhere from 3500 - 8000. So movement can be anywhere from 1 June 2007 - 15 August 2007. It all depends upon demand for last month and we have no basis to come up with exact numbers.

I have not considered EB4 and EB5, which can take few 20-50 numbers here and there.Other than EB4-EB5, there are some PWMBs and dependents who has filed until July visa bulletin, who can become documentarily qualified by September 30.

EB2-IC September 2011 Priority Date Movement

P.S. - Whenever I have been conservative, we have seen great movement for EB2-IC.. I hope it works out like that this time as well.

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