Family-Based
Family 1st – saw some movement for most countries;
Family 2A – most countries advanced to June 2007; Mexico advanced to January 2007.
Family 2B – world numbers stalled at April 2003; Mexico saw no movement and Philippines advances to 01 March 2000.
Family 3rd – most countries advanced to May 2001; Philippines retrogress to February 1992; Mexico advances to 15 November 1992.
Family 4th – most countries stalled at January or March 2000; Philippines stalled at 08 April1988; Mexico stays at February 1996.
Employment-Based
Employment 1st – still current in all categories
Employment 2nd – 01 July 2006 for India; one week improvement for China (01 August 2006) and current for all other categories.
Employment 3rd – EB3 saw overall movement for each country and category
Employment 5th – still current in all categories
VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS
Family-sponsored: The extremely high level of demand during the first few months of FY-2011 resulted in the retrogression of most worldwide cut-off dates in January or February. While most of these cut-offs have begun to advance slowly, heavy demand in the Family First preference has caused a further retrogression for May. At this time it is not possible to predict the rate of forward movement, but some movement is anticipated in most categories for the remainder of the fiscal year.
Employment-based: At this time the amount of demand being received in the Employment First preference is extremely low compared with that of recent years. Absent an immediate and dramatic increase in demand, this category will remain “Current” for all countries. It also appears unlikely that a Second preference cut-off date will be imposed for any countries other than China and India, where demand is extremely high. Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off date movement each month during the coming months are as follows:
Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries. (The allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers is discussed below.)
China: none to three weeks expected through July. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.
India: One or more weeks, possibly followed by additional movement if demand remains stable. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.
Employment Third:
Worldwide: three to six weeks
China: one to three weeks
India: none to two weeks
Mexico: although continued forward movement is expected, no specific projections are possible at this time.
Philippines: three to six weeks
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