Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Friday, June 24, 2011

I-485 Case Tracker for Priority Dates those are Current

Posted On Friday, June 24, 2011 by Rav 2 comments

New "I-485 Case Tracker ONLY for Priority Dates those are Current" is currently released, and open for comments and suggestion. Please use I-485 Case Application Tracker for your case ONLY if your Priority Date has recently became 'Current' in previous or current visa bulletin. Please note that your "Name" cannot have duplicate entries. Data once added will allow editing only few fields.

Goal of this tracker to track approval time after getting 'current' and efforts individual has to take before receiving approvals.

As of now tracker will take into account

Name ▼

Visa Bulletin Month ▼

Visa Category ▼

Chargeability ▼

Priority Date ▼

AOS/CP ▼

I-485 Case Status ▼

Case Type ▼

I-485 Approval Date ▼

Comments ▼

Rep Contacted ▼

Rep Contact Date ▼

SR Opened ▼

SR Open Date ▼

CP Interview Notice Date ▼

EAD/AP Received Date ▼

Biometrics Notice Receiving Date ▼

If you have more suggestions please leave comments.

Check I-485 Tracker here


 

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

August 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Posted On Wednesday, June 22, 2011 by Rav 524 comments

Here is the prediction for August 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations and as long as EB2-India and China will continue to receive spillover as per INA Section 202(a)(5).


August 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions 

To access password restricted area, please send email to usnonimmigrants@gmail.com with Subject "August 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions" (without quotes). Each email will receive unique decryption key (or password) to check the post. Please refrain from posting predictions anywhere on other websites and other posts. These predictions are only for our readers who use these for their guidelines and to plan their life in US. These predictions will be updated as month will progress and better information is released.

Note : In EB2-IC predictions, please read EB3-ROW as EB2-ROW.




 

Friday, June 10, 2011

EB2 - IC Poll- People Who Filed Without Dependents (PFWD) during July 2007 fiasco.

Posted On Friday, June 10, 2011 by Rav 8 comments

In order to calculate the amount of retrogression that will happen after September 2011 for EB2 India and China (in case dates will reach beyond July 2007), we would like to start collecting some information on number of people who did not filed for dependents during July Fiasco. This data in addition to People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007 will exclusively help us to get some information on retrogression post September 2011. If we do not see cut-off dates crossing July 2007 for this fiscal year then this data will anyways be helpful for next years spillover calculation. We would really appreciate your corporation in accumulating this data. We are hoping such individuals will be less in numbers but we want to account them for furthur calculations.

Please select your Priority Date below if you have not filed for dependents during July 2007 fiasco


Please select your family size (excluding you) below if you have not filed for dependents during July 2007 fiasco


 

Thursday, June 9, 2011

PERM Processing Times as of May 31, 2011

Posted On Thursday, June 09, 2011 by Rav 6 comments


DOL recently released current PERM processing times. There is great reduction in audit cases. Compared to last month audit case processing time has moved from December 2009. to August 2010. Improvement by leaps and bounds. Huge reduction in inventory. DOL has started processing cases from April 2011. On average expect wait-time of 60 days for PERM approval. We expect that audit case processing times will improve until January 2011 by next month and then will keep pace with regular approvals with audit cases taking on average just 6 months.

PERM Processing Times as of May 31, 2011

  • Analyst Reviews: April 2011

  • Audits: July-August 2010

  • Standard Appeals: Octoberer 2008

  • Government Error Appeals: Current







 

July 2011 Visa Bulletin and EB Category Movement Analysis

Posted On Thursday, June 09, 2011 by Rav 295 comments

July 2011 Visa Bulletin was released today. For Employment-Based category, EB-3 overall saw some movement in cut-off dates for each country. EB2 is current for all other countries except India and China. EB-2 India-China advanced to 08 March 2007. EB1, EB4 and EB5 are still current. Good movement for Family-Based categories overall.

Family-Based

Family 1st – FB1 ROW, China and India remain unchanged at May 1, 2004. FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to March 8, 1993. FB1 Philippines moves forward by two (2 ) months to April 15, 1996.

Family 2A – FB2A moves forward by seven (7) months to

March 22, 2008 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by seven (7) months to February 15, 2008.

Family 2B – FB2B ROW, China and India remain (a

gain) unchanged at April 15, 2003. FB2B Mexico moves forward by three (3) weeks to August 22, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by three (3) months to June 8, 2000.

Family 3rd – most countries advanced to July 2003; Philippines moves to March 1992; Mexico stayed at 15 November 1992.

Family 4th – most countries stalled at January or March 2000; Philippines advanced to 1 5May 1988; Mexico advanced to March 1996.


Employment-Based

Employment 1st – still current in all categories

Employment 2nd – EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current, EB-2 India-China see significant movement to 08 March 2007.

Employment 3rd – EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to October 8, 2005, EB-3 China moves forward by six (6) weeks to July 1, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by one (1) week to May 1, 2002. EB-3 Mexico moves forward by seven (7) months to July 01, 2005.

Employment 3rd (Others)- The “other worker” category remains unchanged at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by one year two (2) weeks to November 22, 2004 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines. It moves forward by one (1) week to May 01, 2002 for India

Employment 4th – still current in all categories

Employment 5th – still current in all categories


VISA AVAILABILITY Notes from June Visa Bulletin

Family-sponsored: For July, F2A numbers EXEMPT from per-country limit are available to applicants from all countries with priority dates earlier than 15FEB08. F2A numbers SUBJECT to per-country limit are available to applicants chargeable to all countries EXCEPT MEXICO with priority dates beginning 15FEB08 and earlier than 22MAR08. (All F2A numbers provided for MEXICO are exempt from the per-country limit; there are no F2A numbers for MEXICO subject to per-country limit.)

Employment-based: No Notes !!!!



Our Analysis on EB Category after July Visa Bulletin Release

EB3-ROW-M-P - EB3 ROW moved by three weeks to October 08, 2005. As seen with last few months, EB3-ROW only used 1400 visas from the visible demand. At this pace EB3-ROW can ONLY reach mid November by September 2011 visa bulletin. Either lot of the annual visa consumption is going into approving monthly cases returned from Local Offices to USCIS or these visas are utilized by EB3-Mexico. So far, for the current year as per I-485 inventory, EB3-Mexico has utilized 4010 visa numbers. These excess visa utilization suggests that either lot of old I-485 cases were denied for Mexico or DOS is trying to use as much visa numbers for EB3-Mexico to bring it to current EB3-ROW-P, PD of 08 October 2005, This way they do not have to worry about 7% utilization of annual cap that is required to maintain status of retrogressed countries going forward for next fiscal year. Other school of thought suggests that EB3-Mexico can also become 'U' for last two months of the quarter. EB3-P will have to move with EB3-ROW, no matter what for rest of the year.

EB2-India & China - EB2 India and China advanced to 08 March 2007 by utilizing at least 10,563 additional unused visa numbers from EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5. It is expected that at this pace dates can reach July 2007 in August visa bulletin. In September bulletin either dates will become current or will move into first quarter of 2008. If available visa are less than 24K-11k(used for this bulletin) = 14K for remaining two months, then DOS can decide to stay put at 01 Aug 07. PWMBs will be enough to consume annual visa numbers for rest of the next fiscal year (not spillover). Chances for latter looks less as DOS would like to build some inventory for themselves to have fair cut-off date projection for next year spillover season. Once again, everyone keep your documents ready. Next two months could be full of roller coaster ride. It all depends if B's would Stanley Cup. (LOL ..just kidding). God Bless!!!


 

Thursday, June 2, 2011

Updated Green Card Calculator & Other Notes

Posted On Thursday, June 02, 2011 by Rav 62 comments

As per recent data released by USCIS on May 26th, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, green card calculator is updated. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card from current date (as per GMT). In addition to other categories it will aslo calculate number for applicants for EW (Others) category. Due to complication in calculation it cannot estimate wait time as of now.

Data beyond July 2007

Data beyond July 2007 is segregated from PERM data with respective to 'Priority Date'. To segregate EB2 and EB3, PWD minimum salary was used as a basis instead of assumption of 50:50. Ratio 50:50 do not holds true for many countries. Please see table below, which outlines PERM distribution for EB2 and EB3 for different countries.



Spillover Estimation - System will recommend spillover that we expect to receive in coming years for each country and category .
EB2-India & China - PERM distribution for different priority date in EB2 - India and China was calculated. This distribution will control how spillover will be distributed among EB2-IC as dates will progress for different Priority Dates. System would try to average the Spillover among EB2-India and China in such a way that number of years required to reach similar PDs are as close as possible. For each fiscal year, system assumes following spillover. In general distribution of EB2-IC PERM Ratio for different PD year is as shown below. In general, waiting time for Indian nationals in EB2 and EB3 category looks terrible. Since density of applicants per month in EB2-India is so high, that in long run EB2-China will not receive majority of spillover (couple hundred or few thousands). Since EB2 will not be cleared for atleast next 5-6 years, spillover expeccted to EB3 category is minimum. EB3-India will get some indirect- spillover each year due to EB3 to EB2 upgrades or porting which will cause queue to clear faster than anticipated. Individuals with PD close to 2004 -2006 will see ample benefit of this every year. Apparently, if EB2-I will stop receiving spillover or receive minimum spillover in coming years, wait time for EB3-India and EB2-India will end up same. If you will note EB3-India has only 102k estimated demand vs. 165k for EB2-India for PD - March 2011. This whole ordeal is very depressing and visa recapture bill is only hope for EB community.


In addition, you can also put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario. Please see assumptions below. Please ensure that you enter "User ENTERED" value exactly as shown in table below.


PWMB - PWMB is taken care of in green card calculator. In general PWMB number for a PD month is added to the current inventory for the successive PD month. For e.g. if PWMB for EB3-ROW with PD Sep -2005 is '50' , this number is added in PD Oct-2005 inventory. This is done because that demand will not be realised until specific PD will become current. Please click here to see post that refers PWMB for EB3 category.


For EB2-India and China, PWMB is added to the following inventory assuming PD in coming visa bulletin will move in increments as stated in table below.


It is assumed that 7% of the total annual EB Visa Numbers (140,000) are allocated to each of the four retrogressed countries while the remaining 72% visa numbers are available to the Rest of the World. Visa numbers allotment for EB4 and EB5 are considered separately.

Please click Here to check Updated Green Card Calculator