Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Showing posts with label China. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Indian and China Born Natives : Is it time to bid adieu to the 'American Dream' ?

Posted On Wednesday, June 17, 2009 by Rav 0 comments

Mr. Charles Oppenheim of the Department of State Visa Office recently issued predictions for the movement of priority dates for the remainder of the fiscal year and future years. This article will be important to individuals from India and Mainland China. If you have applied for or planning to apply for a permanent residence in employment based: EB1 , EB2 or EB3 category and currently stuck in a ' Green Card ' limbo, your wait can be indefinite unless we see legislative Immigration Reform in Senate. Predictions don't look positive for these individuals.

Some of the predictions that Mr. Oppenheim stated are :
  • EB1 category : Options for the best and the brightest graduates are unscrupulously limited. The first preference category reserved for multinational executives, people of extraordinary ability and outstanding researchers and professors who were born in India or China could require the establishment of a cut-off date in August or September, should the demand for visa numbers remain heavy.This will be after a longtime, one will ever see a cut-off date for these individuals.
  • EB2 category: If you have Masters Degree from a top Ranked American University and you are one of the major research contributor in your company or you are an individual with 5 years experience in a niche field, you have to wait long for your permanent residence. Reason being simple that you were born in India or China. Predictions: Department of Labor has certified unavailability of visa numbers can cause these workers might have to wait as long as 10 years to process a green card. This category may become completely unavailable in August or September of fiscal year 2009.
  • EB3 category : At this time, no immigrant visas are available to persons with mere bachelor’s degrees, even in science, engineering, technology or mathematics. Predictions: Department of State currently estimates that, as of October 1, 2009, the EB-3 worldwide cut-off date will be March 1, 2003.
Mr. Oppenheim also mentioned that the historically underused categories for religious workers, immigrant investors and other special immigrants have also experienced a surge. This has caused less number of these unused visa numbers to be available for Employment-Based EB1 and EB2 category. This means that EB-2 immigrants from China and India could have an even longer wait to obtain green cards.

Countries like Australia, Canada and New Zealand have point system for immigration to the country. Once individual have achieved specific points, he or she can migrate to country and attain permanent residence. Senate should look into such alternatives to overcome some loopholes in the immigration system. Other alternative can be that an employment based program should have quota based on occupation (Science, Technology (IT), Engineering, Mathematics, Business, Management, Healthcare and so on) and not based on countries. For America to prosper, it need skilled workers based on their qualification and not based on race. DOL/DHS could issue occupation pressure list every month, thus making quota current and unavailable as per need.

If we will not see any overhaul in the employment based program, soon US will no more be an attractive destination for students and skilled workers. Many skilled workers would start looking at other countries to study, to conduct research, to invest in and to live in, thus other nations will leap ahead at lightening speeds. These countries would love to have skilled workers to have edge over their counterpart. Recently to take advantage of broken immigration system in US, Canada has started Fast-Track Immigration program for skilled workers who are in US on H1B visa. This program doesn't require valid job offer for an individual to migrate to Canada. In addition, EU brought reform in the immigration to attract skilled workers by introducing "Blue Card". We will soon see more of such reforms by other nations to attract skilled labor class.

On other hand, Foreign students and workers who might prefer to stay in the US can, and increasingly will, also return to their home countries to launch businesses. They can then compete with American companies instead of adding value to them. And when they return home, they can honestly say that America is not the land of opportunity for people like them. In addition, dearth of skilled workers will cause many companies to outsource their businesses to countries like India and China. This will cause nothing but increase mobility of many American jobs being bangalored to these countries.

Does it make sense to educate international students at top universities and then, when at the point where they are ready to contribute to US economy, say it’s time to go home? It has been 20 years since Senate increased the quota for employment immigrant visas. While US went from Senior Bush to George W. Bush in past two decades, employment visa quotas have been hopelessly stuck in limbo. If an individual from India and China is expecting that they will see something like July 2007 fiasco by DOL/DHS in near future, then answer is NO. DOL will be very careful in releasing their visa predictions after July fiasco. If soon we will not see any reform in immigration for skilled worker class, then it may be a good time to bid adieu to the 'American Dream'.





Wednesday, June 10, 2009

July Visa Bulletin 2009 : Visa Numbers Retrogress for EB2 China Mainland Category

Posted On Wednesday, June 10, 2009 by Rav 0 comments

July 2009 visa bulletin is out. As predicted, the cutoff date for China in the EB2 category has retrogressed to January 1, 2000. The June Visa Bulletin will become effective as of July 1st. Thus, the June Visa Bulletin, with an EB2 China cutoff date of February 15, 2005 remains effective through June 30, 2009. So applicants with priority date before February 15, 2005 should rush their applications as soon as possible.


Last month DOL retrogressed the EB2 numbers f
or category India. DOL claims that high level of demand in the EB2 category, and the need to keep within the annual limits is set by law. The DOS also stated that it is currently not possible to estimate whether this retrogression will continue for the rest of the fiscal year. Cut off date in EB-2 category is current for ROW, where as it is January 1, 2000 for natives from India and China Mainland.

Visa numbers for EB3 is Unavailable for everyone in this category. It i
s predicted that this may be unchanged for entire fiscal year. Wait for green card could be indefinite for applicants from India and China category. Soon this long waited "American Dream" will become nothing but "American Nightmare".