Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Showing posts with label Family Based. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Family Based. Show all posts

Saturday, April 9, 2011

Visa Bulletin - May 2011

Posted On Saturday, April 09, 2011 by Rav 9 comments



May 2011 Visa Bulletin was released today. Little movement for Family-Based categories. For Employment-Based category, EB-3 overall saw some movement in cut-off dates for each country. EB2 is current for all other countries except India and China. EB2-India finally moved after long stall. EB2-China progressed to 01 August 2006. EB1, EB4 and EB5 are still current. Please also read some of the projected movements for each category in coming months.

Family-Based

Family 1st – saw some movement for most countries;

Family 2A – most countries advanced to June 2007; Mexico advanced to January 2007.

Family 2B – world numbers stalled at April 2003; Mexico saw no movement and Philippines advances to 01 March 2000.

Family 3rd – most countries advanced to May 2001; Philippines retrogress to February 1992; Mexico advances to 15 November 1992.

Family 4th – most countries stalled at January or March 2000; Philippines stalled at 08 April1988; Mexico stays at February 1996.

Employment-Based

Employment 1st – still current in all categories

Employment 2nd – 01 July 2006 for India; one week improvement for China (01 August 2006) and current for all other categories.

Employment 3rd – EB3 saw overall movement for each country and category

Employment 4th – still current in all categories

Employment 5th – still current in all categories


VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS

Family-sponsored: The extremely high level of demand during the first few months of FY-2011 resulted in the retrogression of most worldwide cut-off dates in January or February. While most of these cut-offs have begun to advance slowly, heavy demand in the Family First preference has caused a further retrogression for May. At this time it is not possible to predict the rate of forward movement, but some movement is anticipated in most categories for the remainder of the fiscal year.

Employment-based: At this time the amount of demand being received in the Employment First preference is extremely low compared with that of recent years. Absent an immediate and dramatic increase in demand, this category will remain “Current” for all countries. It also appears unlikely that a Second preference cut-off date will be imposed for any countries other than China and India, where demand is extremely high. Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off date movement each month during the coming months are as follows:

Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries. (The allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers is discussed below.)

China: none to three weeks expected through July. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.

India: One or more weeks, possibly followed by additional movement if demand remains stable. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.

Employment Third:

Worldwide: three to six weeks
China: one to three weeks
India: none to two weeks
Mexico: although continued forward movement is expected, no specific projections are possible at this time.
Philippines: three to six weeks


Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Cross Chargeability - Use your Spouse's Country of Birth for Green Card

Posted On Tuesday, February 01, 2011 by Rav 5 comments

If the principal and derivative beneficiaries were born in different countries, it may be possible to apply cross chargeability principles. This allows individual to expedite his or her green card by using priority date as per their spouse's country of birth. Principle of cross-chargeability can be used for employment-based and family- based green cards.


What is Cross Chargeability?
Visas are usually chargeable to the country of the beneficiary's place of birth. But one basic benefit of immigration to US is that USCIS wants to keep individual's family intact. If one family member were being charged to a country that is over-subscribed, while the other family members in the same preference category were charged to countries that are current, this would result in separation and undue hardship. To remedy this potential problem, the law allows in some situations for the family to elect whichever foreign state is more beneficial. The law seems to limit application to situations where it is necessary to prevent the separation of the spouses or separation of the children and parents. For example, if an Indian citizen is married to Canadian born citizen, he can elect to use ROW as country of chargeability. Law would apply for child as well where he can use his parents country of chargeability. Although vice-versa is not true.

Immigration and Nationality Act [INA 202 (b)(2)]
Rules for Chargeability: if an alien is chargeable to a different foreign state from that of his spouse, the foreign state to which such alien is chargeable may, if necessary to prevent the separation of husband and wife, be determined by the foreign state of the spouse he is accompanying or following to join, if such spouse has received or would be qualified for an immigrant visa and if immigration charged to the foreign state to which such spouse has been or would be chargeable has not reached a numerical level established for that fiscal year;
As per USCIS- "Under a provision of immigration law known as “cross-charging”, if your spouse was born in a country that is not subject to retrogression, you can “charge” against that country’s visa quota. Please note that your spouse must be born in that country. If she/he became a citizen of that country after being born in a country that is subject to retrogression, you cannot cross-charge to your spouse."


Note:
There are exceptions to this rule for some countries (e.g. Kuwait offers citizenship to Original Kuwaiti nationals are those persons who were settled in Kuwait prior to 1920) which allows citizenship only to native people. In this case you may still be able to use cross-chargeabiliy as long as you can reproduce birth certificate issued by a government official from these countries.


Thursday, January 13, 2011

Priority Date - How to recapture from previously filed petition ?

Posted On Thursday, January 13, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

Generally speaking, the filing date of the visa petition determines the priority date of the alien beneficiary, and his or her place on the waiting list for an immigrant visa.

Employment Based

Immigrant workers being sponsored for labor certifications or PERM are an exception to above rule; the labor certification filing date with the Department of Labor controls as the priority date.

In the context of employment-based immigration, visa petitions filed under the EB-1, EB-2, or EB-3 categories are entitled to the earliest priority date where a subsequent immigrant visa petition (usually I-140) in any of these categories is submitted and approved, unless the prior petition was revoked due to fraud. However, these priority dates are not transferable to the EB-4 or EB-5 categories, or family-sponsored visa petitions.

Once immigrant petition for alien has been approved, he or she can move to new employment. In order to recapture previous priority date, alien has to start their green card process again with his employer. This involves submission of new PERM for new job to DOL. Once PERM is approved, request to capture previous priority date can be sent to USCIS when filing for new I-140 or during filing I-485. Please note, you will need an approved I-140 to recapture priority date. Old PERM approval is not sufficient. Proof of previously approved I-140 could be send to USCIS in form of copy of approval notice, copy of receipt notice or image capture of approval of case on USCIS website.


Family Based

Recapturing an earlier priority date for a subsequent family-based visa petition is more complicated. Here’s a brief overview of the U.S. family-based immigration system: immediate relative (spouse or unmarried child under 21 years old of U.S. citizen); 1st preference (unmarried child over 21 years old of U.S. citizen); 2nd preference (F2A – spouse and unmarried child under 21 years old of permanent resident, and F2B – unmarried child over 21 years old of permanent resident); 3rd preference (married child of U.S. citizen); and 4th preference (brother or sister of U.S. citizen). It is important to note that there is no category for married children of permanent residents.

Regulations implementing U.S. immigration law provide specifically when priority dates can be recaptured for a family petition. Generally speaking, a beneficiary can recapture an earlier priority date if the petitioner and the beneficiary are the same, the petitioner is filing in the same preference category, and the prior I-130 visa petition was not terminated or revoked. For example, if an unmarried child of a U.S. citizen over the age of 21 years old (1st preference category) marries while the petition is pending, then the beneficiary is automatically converted to the 3rd preference category but they will keep the original priority date. However, if an unmarried child of a permanent resident (2nd preference) marries while the petition is pending, then the petition is automatically revoked as a matter of law because no category exists for permanent residents to petition married children. Any subsequent petition that the permanent resident parent files on that child’s behalf (such as a 3rd preference visa when the parent becomes a U.S. citizen) will entail a new filing (priority) date.

Another complicated situation where priority dates can be recaptured involves the children of unmarried sons or daughters who are the principal beneficiaries of their parents’ petitions filed in the 2nd preference category. If these children (derivative beneficiaries) turn 21 years old, they lose their derivative status and move from the F2A category to F2B. Moreover, the children will require a new immigrant visa petition filed on their behalf. Fortunately, these derivative beneficiaries who “aged-out” will be able to retain the original priority date of their initial petition.

Priority dates directly determine when an individual can immigrate to the United States or adjust their status to permanent residency. As you can see, attempting to recapture an earlier priority date to ensure more timely immigration can be complex. Individuals seeking assistance with recapturing a priority date from a prior petition should consult with knowledgeable and experienced immigration attorneys.


Friday, December 31, 2010

Visa Bulletin - January 2011

Posted On Friday, December 31, 2010 by Rav 0 comments

January 2011 Visa Bulletin was released on 9th December 2010. As predicted there was no major movement for employment based category. Major movement for the EB-2 employment based category for India and China will be seen in month of June-July 2011, only when unused visa numbers will be available due to spillover from EB2- ROW and EB-1 . Until then one should expect small or no movement in EB-2 category. Eb-3 movement will still be at snail pace for rest of the year. Family Based category would see retrogression for rest of the year.

Family Based
:

As per January Visa Bulletin, family categories had seen as much of the advancement of the last two years has been reversed with major retrogression.

"As reported in the December Visa Bulletin (number 27), the cut-off dates for most family preference categories advanced at a very rapid pace during the past two years. Those movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in the level of applicant demand received in recent months. This has required the retrogression of many Family preference cut-off dates for January in an effort to hold number use within the various numerical limits. Further retrogression cannot be ruled out should demand continue at the current levels" (emphasis added)."




Employment Based :

The only good news was a ten month jump for Mexico EB-3 cases.

Employment 1st - still current in all categories.

Employment 2nd - weak movement for India and China; just a two week improvement for China (22 June 2006) and stalled again for India (8 May 2006).

Employment 3rd - modest movement; one month advance for most countries to 22 March 2005; one week advance for China to 15 December 2003; India moves up one week to 1 February 2002. Mexico jumps 10 months to 15 April 2003 and the Philippines jumps a month to 22 March 2005.

Employment 3rd Other Workers – most countries remain stalled at 22 April 2003; India moves up one week to 1 February 2002; Mexico jumps 10 months to 15 April 2003.

Employment 4th - still current in all categories.

Employment 5th - still current in all categories.



Thursday, December 30, 2010

Family Based Priority Dates may Retrogress or will be 'Unavailable' for rest of FY 2011

Posted On Thursday, December 30, 2010 by Rav 2 comments

As per recent report by "USCIS Response to the Citizenship and Immigration Service Ombudsman’s 2010 Annual Report", it suggests that all available family-based visas will be used by the end of FY 2010. It is very likelihood that Family Based VIsa Numbers will either retrogress or will be unavailable for rest of the fiscal year 2011.

Please see excerpt from the report below

C. Family-Based Immigration
USCIS has worked extensively to reduce the number of pending I-130s. In January 2009, approximately 1.2 million preference category I-130s were pending. As of August 2010, the number of pending cases stands at less than 350,000 – representing a 70-percent reduction in pending inventory. Because USCIS is working rapidly to eliminate the backlog of pending I-130 petitions, it is imperative, as the CISOMB notes, that petitioners notify USCIS of any address changes. As a point of clarification, USCIS will deny the petition, not terminate it,10 if USCIS does not receive a response to the Request for Evidence (RFE). Because failure to respond to an RFE will result in a denial, it is very important that the petitioner keep USCIS informed of any mailing address changes. USCIS appreciates any assistance the CISOMB can provide in relaying this message to customers.

The CISOMB reported that demand for family-based visas has been low and cautioned that a significant number of family-based visas may go unused in FY2010. Since the release of the Annual Report, however, USCIS and DOS have made significant progress in addressing this issue and anticipate that all available family-based visas will be used by the end of FY 2010.