Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Saturday, January 29, 2011

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same (current) employer: Not a good idea

Posted On Saturday, January 29, 2011 by Rav 6 comments

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. If you are porting your case after attaining new job offer from a new employer that would qualify you into EB2 category, well then this should be very straight forward. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

Why EB3 to EB2 Porting with same (current) employer is not a good idea?

To port case from EB3 to EB2 category with same (current) employer it is a common notion among immigration community that your new job description should be different and you should be able to prove that you have attained all your experience before joining current employer. New Job Description should be at least 50% different from previous EB3 job description in order to port case with the same (current) employer. It is also believed that any progressive experience attained with the same (current) employer could be counted towards new EB2 petition. Though this sounds perfect, but an individual opting for this route should consider following points that USCIS would consider before approving your case:

a) Whether new future job opening is legitimate and well documented internally in the company. Employer could be asked to provide evidence or proof supporting this. (example: an email trail from manager requesting addition of head count)

b) If an employee from a company is considered for this new EB2 level job, what would happen to future EB3 level job? Has employer posted an old EB3 level job again in the market? If earlier EB3 level job is not open, did employer falsify his need previously? Is it required for an employer to fill that position?

c) Was your promotion internal and you were considered for this new future job due to experience gained at EB3 qualified job? For example “Software Engineer” to “Project Manager”

d) Whether new job description is biased to gratify individual’s experience and qualifications. This would cause more audits at new PERM or I-140 level.

e) If an American citizen who would qualify for your job at EB3 level today, could he be qualified for your EB2 level job after attaining similar progressive experience. Does this call for testing market for your EB3 job level again in current time when unemployment is so high.

f) How many employees from same employer have recently been upgraded from EB3 to EB2? Does this call for auditing employer for all the recent approved cases.

So in all EB3 to EB2 Porting with same (current) employer could open whole new can of worms, and I would refrain myself from opting this route. If an employer is considering this as an option for number of his employees, he should be cautious as this could call for many audits in future and he could eventually be under scrutiny by USCIS and DOL. It is just a matter of time.


Friday, January 28, 2011

President Obama's Plan to fix Broken Immigration System

Posted On Friday, January 28, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

President Obama’s Plan to Win the Future by Fixing Our Broken Immigration System

In his State of the Union Address, President Obama repeated his deep commitment to fixing our broken immigration system. The United States has been enriched by a steady stream of hardworking and talented people from all over the world. These generations of immigrants have helped make America the engine of the global economy and a beacon of hope around the world. As we work to rebuild the economy, our ability to win the future depends, in part, on restoring responsibility and accountability to the immigration system. The American people expect Democrats and Republicans to come together to tackle the major issues confronting our nation, and fixing our broken immigration system is critical to the economy, our global competiveness, and our national security.

  • Secure our borders: This Administration has dedicated record levels of resources to border security, including enforcement personnel and technology. President Obama supports investing strategic resources to further secure our borders.
  • Hold accountable businesses that break the law by exploiting undocumented laborers and undermining American workers: This Administration will build on its current efforts to crack down on employers that deliberately hire and exploit undocumented workers. At the same time, the President believes we must make it easier for the vast majority of employers who want to play by the rules to verify their workers are here legally.
  • Demand responsibility from those living in the United States illegally: Immigrants who are here illegally must take responsibility for their actions. To get on the right side of the law, they must own up to their illegal actions by paying taxes and an additional penalty, and learn English.
  • Create a legal immigration system that meets our diverse needs: We must create a legal immigration system that meets our diverse economic needs and honors our rich tradition as both a nation of entrepreneurial immigrants and a nation of laws.

The President’s Vision for Restoring Accountability & Responsibility to Our Immigration Laws

The President has outlined a vision for fixing the broken immigration system through common sense, comprehensive immigration reform grounded in the principles of responsibility and accountability:

  • Continue to make border security the responsibility and priority of the Federal Government: Today, we are doing more to secure our borders than at any time in the past several decades. However, the Administration continues to refine and strengthen its strategy. Enforcement resources should be targeted, increased where appropriate, and focused on stopping potential terrorists and others who would do our nation harm.
  • Hold accountable businesses that break the law by exploiting undocumented workers: Employers who break the law by deliberately hiring and exploiting undocumented workers undermine the American workforce and must be held accountable. At the same time, we must give employers who want to play by the rules a reliable way to verify that their employees are here legally and eligible to work.
  • Make those living in the United States illegally take responsibility for their actions: Those people living here illegally must also be held accountable for getting on the right side of the law. To do this, they will have to admit they broke the law, pay taxes and a penalty, and learn English before they can get in line to obtain legal status and eventual citizenship. Being a citizen of this country comes not only with rights, but also with fundamental responsibilities. We can create a pathway for legal status that is fair, and reflects reflective of our values.
  • Strengthen economic competiveness by creating a legal immigration system that meets our diverse needs: Our immigration laws should encourage and attract high-skilled individuals from all over the world. We must stop expelling talented and responsible young people, whether they were brought here by their parents as children, or come from other countries to pursue advanced degrees. We must also provide farmers a legal way to hire the workers they rely on, and respect families following the rules.

Building on Progress

The President takes his responsibility to enforce our immigration laws and secure the border seriously Over the last two years, the Obama Administration has dedicated unprecedented resources to secure the border, taken important steps to make interior and worksite enforcement of our immigration laws smarter and more effective, and made improvements to the legal immigration system:

  • Dedicating unprecedented resources to secure the border: Today, there are more “boots on the ground” along the Southwest Border than ever before. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has also deployed thousands of technology assets, including aircraft and Unmanned Aircraft Systems, and completed nearly all fencing. Last year, Congress answered the President’s call to bolster the Federal Government’s efforts through the Southwest Border Security Supplemental Bill. DHS is using these resources to build on their successful efforts to decrease the numbers of illegal aliens who cross the border and increase seizures of illegal currency, drugs, and guns that have led to thousands of criminal arrests and prosecutions.
  • Making our interior and worksite enforcement efforts smarter and more strategic: The Administration has laid out new enforcement strategies targeted at removing immigrants convicted of serious crimes and unscrupulous employers who seek to exploit both immigrant and American workers. These new strategies have had real results including a 70 percent increase in deportations of criminal immigrants and, in FY 2010 more audits conducted and fines levied against employers who violated immigration laws than in any year by any previous Administration. DHS has also invested in implementing important reforms to the detention system, enhancing its security and efficiency while prioritizing the health and safety of detainees.
  • Improving our Legal Immigration System: The Administration is improving processing times and clearing backlogs of pending immigration applications, including fully eliminating the FBI National Name Check Program’s backlog. DHS is also working to ensure that naturalization is accessible to all qualified legal immigrants. Since January 2009, DHS has worked with the Armed Forces to naturalize nearly 20,000 military personnel. DHS is also devoting critical funding to promote innovative citizenship preparation and integration programs in communities throughout the country.

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Thursday, January 27, 2011

H1B FY 2011 Cap Reached - 26th January 2011

Posted On Thursday, January 27, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

WASHINGTON—U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) announced today that it has received a sufficient number of H-1B petitions to reach the statutory cap for fiscal year (FY) 2011. USCIS is notifying the public that yesterday, Jan. 26, 2011, is the final receipt date for new H-1B specialty occupation petitions requesting an employment start date in FY2011.

The final receipt date is the date on which USCIS determines that it has received enough cap-subject petitions to reach the limit of 65,000. Properly filed cases will be considered received on the date that USCIS physically receives the petition; not the date that the petition was postmarked. USCIS will reject cap-subject petitions for new H-1B specialty occupation workers seeking an employment start date in FY2011 that arrive after Jan. 26, 2011.

USCIS will apply a computer-generated random selection process to all petitions that are subject to the cap and were received on Jan. 26, 2011. USCIS will use this process to select petitions needed to meet the cap. USCIS will reject all remaining cap-subject petitions not randomly selected and will return the accompanying fee.

On Dec. 22, 2010, USCIS had also received more than 20,000 H-1B petitions filed on behalf of persons exempt from the cap under the ‘advanced degree’ exemption. USCIS will continue to accept and process petitions that are otherwise exempt from the cap. Pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act, petitions filed on behalf of current H-1B workers who have been counted previously against the cap will not be counted towards the congressionally-mandated FY2011 H-1B cap. Accordingly, USCIS will continue to accept and process petitions filed to:

a) extend the amount of time a current H-1B worker may remain in the U.S.;
b) change the terms of employment for current H-1B workers;
c) allow current H-1B workers to change employers; and
d) allow current H-1B workers to work concurrently in a second H-1B position.

U.S. businesses use the H-1B program to employ foreign workers in specialty occupations that require theoretical or technical expertise in specialized fields such as scientists, engineers, or computer programmers.

For more information on USCIS and its programs, visit www.uscis.gov.


Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Fact Sheet on RFEs and NOID

Posted On Wednesday, January 26, 2011 by Rav 0 comments


USCIS Announces Flexible Response Times for Notices of Intent to Deny and Requests for Evidence

On April 12, 2007, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) transmitted the final rule Removal of the Standardized Request for Evidence Processing Timeframe to the Federal Register (FR). The rule will take effect on June 16, 2007. This rule amends DHS regulations to give U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) flexibility in setting the time allowed for immigration benefit applicants and petitioners to respond to a Request for Evidence (RFE) or to a Notice of Intent to Deny (NOID). This change does not apply to asylum cases, to which a separate set of regulations apply.

The amended rule makes the following key changes and clarifications:

Flexible Response Times to RFEs Permitted

Regardless of the type of evidence requested, the old regulation required USCIS to set an inflexible 12 week period for applicants or petitioners to respond to an RFE. The new regulation permits USCIS to set flexible deadlines. Deadlines will depend on the complexity of cases and types of applications or petitions filed. For example, when requesting readily available or missing initial evidence, USCIS can set a response time much shorter than 12 weeks. On the other hand, USCIS can provide the full 12 week response period for more difficult to obtain evidence.

No Extensions to Submit Responses to RFEs or NOIDs

Regardless of the evidence requested, USCIS has never allowed extensions beyond the maximum 12 week deadline for RFEs and the 30 day deadline for NOIDs. That bar does not change, even though the new rule allows USCIS to set deadlines shorter than those maximums. For example, under the new regulation, USCIS may issue an RFE that gives an applicant 30 days to submit a photo. USCIS will not grant an extension of that 30 day period. Failure to timely respond to the RFE may lead to denial of the application or petition.

When Evidence Submitted With The Application or Petition Does Not Show Eligibility

When initially submitted evidence does not show eligibility, the new regulation allows USCIS to deny the application or petition. As always, USCIS may request that the applicant or petitioner submit additional evidence within a specified time period or may notify the applicant or petitioner that USCIS intends to deny the application or petition. To avoid denial, USCIS urges applicants and petitioners to file complete applications with all of the required initial evidence. The initial evidence for each application and petition type is clearly listed on the form instructions and in the regulations.

Reasons for Issuing a NOID

USCIS may issue a NOID when there is evidence of ineligibility for immigration benefits and is required to issue a NOID when there is negative evidence that the applicant or petitioner does not know about. An applicant or petitioner may respond to the NOID by submitting evidence to disprove the negative information.

If There Is No Response to an RFE or a NOID

The new regulation provides USCIS three options if it does not receive a response to an RFE or a NOID. USCIS may:

• find that the application or petition has been abandoned and, if so, deny it;

• deny the application or petition based on the evidence already received; or

• deny the application or petition for both reasons.

When an Applicant or Petitioner Does Not Appear for a Required Appointment

If an applicant or petitioner fails to appear for biometrics capture, interview or any other required in-person process, USCIS may deny the application or petition as abandoned. However, USCIS may not do so if, prior to the scheduled appointment time, it receives a timely-filed change of address or request to reschedule and decides that the failure to appear is excusable. In such cases, USCIS will reschedule the appointment. USCIS reminds applicants and petitioners that they are required to file an AR-11 change of address form within ten days of their move.


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