Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Durbin-Grassley's Letter to DHS Secretary to terminate 17-month OPT extension program for STEM students

Posted On Tuesday, February 15, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

Senator Grassley and Senator Durbin's letter to DHS Secretary, Janet Napolitano requesting restoring integrity of H1-B Program and reconsidering terminating 17-month OPT extension program for STEM students.


 

Saturday, February 12, 2011

USCIS to Issue Employment Authorization and Advance Parole Card on a Single Card

Posted On Saturday, February 12, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

Introduction

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) today announced that it is now issuing employment and travel authorization on a single card for certain applicants filing an Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, Form I-485.

Questions and Answers

Q1. How is this card different from the current Employment Authorization Document (EAD)?
A1. The card looks similar to the current Employment Authorization Document (EAD) but will include text that reads, "Serves as I-512 Advance Parole". A card with this text will serve as both an employment authorization and Advance Parole document.

Employers may accept this card as a List A document when completing the Employment Eligibility Verification, Form I-9.

Q2. Why did USCIS combine these benefits in one card?
A2. With the new card, adjustment of status applicants no longer will have to carry both an EAD and a separate paper Advance Parole document while awaiting adjudication of their Form I-485 applications. Instead, applicants only will have to carry this one credit card-sized card. The new card is more secure and more durable than the current paper Advance Parole document.

Q3. How do I receive the EAD and Advance Parole card?
A3. You may receive this card when you file an Application for Employment Authorization, Form I-765, and an Application for Travel Document, Form I-131, concurrently with or after filing an Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, Form I-485. You must file the Forms I-765 and I-131 at the same time in order to receive an EAD and Advance Parole card. Please ensure that you enter your name and address identically on Forms I-765 and I-131 that you file concurrently in order to receive the new card.

Q4. If I receive this card, does that guarantee my re-entry into the United States if I travel?
A4. No. This card authorizes parole, not admission, to the U.S. Parole is not an admission or "entry". If you obtain this card, you may use it to travel abroad and return to the U.S. Upon arriving at a port-of-entry, you should present the card to a Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Officer to request parole. Issuance of an Advance Parole document does not guarantee that CBP will parole you into the U.S. If parole is granted, you will be permitted to come into the U.S. as a parolee, but will not have been 'admitted". Individuals who have been unlawfully present in the U.S. and subsequently depart and seek re-entry through a grant of parole may be inadmissible and ineligible to adjust their status.

Q5. How much does this card cost?
A5. If you submitted an application for adjustment of status on or after July 30, 2007 (or on or after August 18, 2007, for employment-based cases), you will pay only one fee to file Form I-485, Form I-765 and Form I-131. The fee for Form I-485 is $1,070, ($985 plus $85 biometric fee), and there is no separate fee for Forms I-765 and I-131 associated with a Form I-485. For those cases that were filed under the old fee structure, the costs for this card will equal the combined costs of filing Forms I-131 and I-765, which is a total of $740. Visit www.uscis.gov/fees for more information.

Q6. How long is this card valid?
A6. Based on the availability of an immigrant visa, USCIS will issue this card for a period of one or two years. USCIS may also in its discretion issue the card for a longer or shorter validity period, depending on the particulars of the case.

Q7. What if I already have an EAD or an Advance Parole document?
A7. If your Advance Parole document and EAD card have different expiration dates, you may only receive this card if both documents have less than 120 days of validity left, or if the EAD has less than 120 days of validity left and the Advance Parole document is for a single entry only. If you decide to file for this card by filing Forms I-765 and I-131 simultaneously, do not apply more than 120 days before your current EAD expires. The validity period for the EAD and Advance Parole card will begin on the date of the adjudication of the Forms I-765 and I-131.

Q8. Will USCIS still issue separate EAD and Advance Parole documents?
A8. Yes. USCIS will continue to issue separate EAD and Advance Parole documents as warranted. For example, you will receive an EAD without permission to travel if you do not request Advance Parole or if your Form I-765 is approved but your Form I-131 is denied.

Q9. If I lose or damage this card, how do I get another one?
A9. To obtain a replacement card, you must file the Application for Employment Authorization, Form I-765, and Application for Travel Document, Form I-131, concurrently, with the appropriate fee of $380 for the I-765 and $360 for the I-131. Although individuals who file under the current fee structure obtain their first card at no cost, they are required to pay the current application fee(s) for any card that USCIS replaces due to loss, negligence or damage. Visit www.uscis.gov/fees for more information.

Q10. Is this card available to anyone?
A10. No. This card is only available to certain individuals who have pending family or employment based Forms I-485.

Q11. What does this card look like?

A11.


To learn more about USCIS and its programs, visit www.uscis.gov or call the USCIS National Customer Service Center at 1-800-375-5283 or 1-800-767-1833 (TTY).

Source


 

Visa Bulletin - March 2011

Posted On Saturday, February 12, 2011 by Rav 1 comments



March 2011 Visa Bulletin was released on 11 February, 2011. No movement for Family-Based categories. We expect retrogression for Family-Based F-2A category in coming months. For Employment-Based category, EB-3 overall saw some movement in cut-off dates for each country. EB2 is current for all other countries except India and China. EB2-India did not see any movement. EB2-China progressed by one week. EB1, EB4 and EB5 are still current.

Family-Based

Family 1st – no improvement for most countries; one week advance for Mexico and four and a half months advance for Philippines.

Family 2A – most countries retrogressed to January 2007; Mexico advanced to January 2006.

Family 2B – world numbers stalled at April 2003; Dominican Republic advances to January 2001; Mexico advanced one week and Philippines advances two months.

Family 3rd – most countries stalled at January 2001; Philippines advances a month and a half to December 08, 1991; Mexico retrogresses three weeks to 01 November 1992.

Family 4th – most countries stalled at January 2000; Philippines stalled at 15 January 1988; Mexico advances three weeks to 22 January 1996.

RETROGRESSION OF FAMILY PREFERENCE CUT-OFF DATES

Continued heavy applicant demand for numbers in the Family F2A preference category has required the retrogression of the Worldwide, China-mainland born, Dominican Republic, India, and Philippines cut-off dates for the month of March. Should the current and recent retrogressions have the intended impact to slow demand for numbers, it is anticipated that these cut-off could begin to move forward slowly in the coming months.

Further retrogressions cannot be ruled out should demand continue at the current levels for some categories and countries.

Employment-Based

Employment 1st – still current in all categories

Employment 2nd – no movement for India; one week improvement for China (08 July 2006) and still stalled for India (8 May 2006).

Employment 3rd – three months advance for most countries to 01 July 2005; three week advance for China to 22 January 2004; three month advance for Dominican Republic to 01 July 2005; three week advance for India to 15 March 2002; Mexico jumps six months to 08 January 2004; three month advance for Philippines to 01 July 2005.

Employment 3rd Other Workers – most countries advance six weeks to 15 June 2003; China stalled to 22 April 2003; Dominican Republic advances six weeks to 15 June 2003; India advances three weeks to 15 March 2002; Mexico stalled at 01 May 2003; Philippines advances six weeks to 15 June 2003.

Employment 4th – still current in all categories

Employment 5th – still current in all categories







 

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Demand Data and EB3-EB2 Porting Calculations

Posted On Wednesday, February 09, 2011 by Rav 3 comments

Demand Data that is used to determine cut-off dates for Employment Based Category has been released. You can find Demand Data here. Based on released demand data, visa demand for EB2-India to reach 01 January 2007 has increased from 13,150 to 13,175 from February 2011 to March 2011. This portends that EB2-India will not see any movement in March 2011 Visa Bulletin.

Demand Data for EB2-India for last 4 months

Cumulative Demand

Dec 2010

Jan 2011

Feb 2011

March 2011

01 January 2007

13,150

13,125

13,150

13,175


How to use this data to predict EB3-EB2 porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is

EB3-EB2 Porting = (Demand for current month) - (Demand for past month) + 233

Dec 2010

Jan 2011

Feb 2011

March 2011

EB3-EB2 Porting

258

208

258

258

This suggests that on an average 260 cases are ported every month. This brings total to 3120 cases for a year as long as this trends continue.

Fallacy to above calculations
One fallacy to above method is 'Hidden Demand'. We are not sure about number of ported cases that are received and approved same month due to interfiling. This is what I call 'Hidden Demand', as it could not be accounted for in each month's released demand data. On an average it is taking 20 days to get a green card for a case which is ported and is already pre-adjudicated to use visa numbers. So these cases may not show up in demand data.

How to evaluate current trends in EB3 to EB2 porting?
There is no simple way to predict current trend in EB3 to EB2 porting. One way that I plan to estimate current trend in EB3 to EB2 porting is use of Google Analytics. With Google Analytics, I can drill down to each content on this website and see number of "unique visits" that I have received on each topic every day. This data is well plotted on Google Analytics and could be shared on this blog. This could at least help in breaking down number of individuals who are thinking or actually porting from EB3 to EB2. Results could be complete morass, but I think this can throw a little light on current trend in porting.

Currently this website has three posts on EB3 to EB2 porting.
I plan to analyze each of these posts to predict EB3 to EB2 porting numbers. I believe individuals visiting these topics are either thinking of porting their cases or are in middle of filing new PERM under EB2 category. This data could be leading indicator for the demand that may hit in coming months. The data set that I have analyzed so far suggests on average '20' unique visitors are interested in reading one of the above topics. If we assume that 80% of these individuals are either thinking of porting their cases or actually eligible to porting, number comes around '480' individuals for a month and around '5760' cases for a year. But again this is a small data set with lot of uncertainty. I plan to collect data until second week of March and further analyze it to share results here on website.