Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Monday, February 28, 2011

USCIS released I-140 Statistics for EB1 (EB1-A and EB1-B) Category

Posted On Monday, February 28, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

USCIS yesterday released Approval and Denial Statistics for I-140 for EB1 Category for fiscal years 2005 to 2010. USCIS release specifically points that released statistical data for I-140 is for E-11 and E-12 category. As per DHS, definition for E11 and E12 is "Aliens with extraordinary ability, new arrivals (E11)" and "Outstanding professors or researchers, new arrivals (E12)". New arrivals are usually individuals who has applied from outside the US or CP cases (physically residing outside US), whereas Adjustments are individuals who are currently present in the US in a non-immigrant category adjusting to a immigrant status to receive permanent residence. Since E11 and E12 includes data released for new arrivals it should not include AOS numbers. But this does not look right when you compare USCIS released data and DHS released data on FY 2009 I-485 Visa Number Use as per Class of Admissions. We can see that the numbers are very close when recent released data is viewed in terms of AOS + new arrival. As far as I think, USCIS data does include AOS applicants as well. as new arrivals Please note that I-140 data would only include primary applicants i.e. E11, E16, E12 and E17

DHS Vocabulary on Class of Admissions
Aliens with extraordinary ability, new arrivals (E11)
Aliens with extraordinary ability, adjustments (E16)
Outstanding professors or researchers, new arrivals (E12)
Outstanding professors or researchers, adjustments (E17)
Multinational executives or managers, new arrivals (E13)
Multinational executives or managers, adjustments (E18)

Fiscal Year 2009 Data

Type and class of admission --------------------------Total----AOS-- New Arrivals

Aliens with extraordinary ability, new arrivals (E11)---------308 -----NA------- 308

Aliens with extraordinary ability, adjustments (E16) --------3,134- - 3,134 ------NA

Outstanding professors or researchers, new arrivals (E12) ---20------NA------- 20

Outstanding professors or researchers, adjustments (E17)-- 3,412--- 3,412------NA

Multinational executives or managers, new arrivals (E13)---- 214 ----NA------ 214

Multinational executives or managers, adjustments (E18) ---9,718 ---9,718-----NA

FY 2009 I-485 Visa Number Use as per Class of Admissions


Approval and Denial Statistics for I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Workers




Saturday, February 26, 2011

Can one initiate H1B Transfer after Visa and I-94 has expired when H1B Extension is Pending with USCIS?

Posted On Saturday, February 26, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

If one’s H1B and I-94 has expired and his/her current employer has filed an extension which is pending with USCIS, can one change his/her employer?

Can one initiate H1B transfer when a H1B extension is pending with USCIS?

Different people interpret this in a different way. There is no defined statutory rule about this. This is gray area and solely depends upon discretion of an USCIS official. Your case could be argued in many ways.

a) Since you have filed an extension, your presence in US is legal and hence starting a new transfer should not be a problem. As long as your extension is not revoked or withdrawn by your current employer and you can get your H1B transfer approved before it is withdrawn, you should be fine. In such scenario please ask your new employer to process your H1B transfer case in Premium Processing and do not resign from current employer before your transfer case is approved. It will be wise to stay put.

b) Some officials could argue that since you were assumed to be in legal status based on H1B extension filing, and successive withdrawal of a H1B extension before approval after leaving your current company (even if H1B transfer case was approved before extension withdrawal) makes your presence after your I-94 expiry unlawful in US and hence H1B transfer should be void. You should leave the country immediately.

c) In other cases, officials could cancel your extension and just award you H1B transfer based on Consular processing. In this case you have to go outside the country to get your H1B stamped before you can start working for new employer.

d) Even if your H1B transfer is approved without any hiccups before extension is approved, there is always a chance that question on your legal presence in country could come up during I-485 interview or an approval.

Some of the approaches you can take are

  • Do premium processing in both cases. (Start transfer after Extension approval),
  • Do premium processing for the H1 extension and then after approval of which you can start a normal H1 transfer. You can start working on receiving I-797 receipt
  • Wait until Extension is approved before starting Transfer.

Best approach in this scenario would be to wait till the extension is approved and then start a H1B transfer. In any case please talk to a lawyer before taking any action as this clause is interpreted differently depending on the facts of the case.


Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Senator Hatch wants White House to seek H-1B expansion

Posted On Tuesday, February 22, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

Treasury secretary says he agrees with Hatch on need to increase H-1B visa program

Computerworld - WASHINGTON -- U.S. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) berated the White House on Wednesday for failing to urge expansion of the H-1B program.

Hatch, the ranking member of the Senate Committee on Finance, raised his concern at a committee hearing on President Obama's proposed 2012 federal budget. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was its sole witness.

One of the things that would "help our country a great deal is to expand the H-1B and allow these Ph.D.s who are educated here who want to stay here, who are brilliant, who can help us in the high-tech world and other worlds, to stay here," Hatch told Geithner.

"It's ridiculous that the administration doesn't weigh in on [H-1B], and I know why they don't -- but it's ridiculous not to," Hatch said, "And we've now created real competitors in India and China, just to mention two places, but others as well. "

In China, but especially in India, the H-1B visa is critical to offshore outsourcing companies in providing overseas services. These companies were critical of the Senate last year for approving a $2,000 visa fee increase specifically aimed at them. U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), who sought the fee increase, said the H-1B program has created "multinational temp agencies."

"We are not doing things that we really ought to do to get competitive," Hatch said. "Weigh in on this H-1B thing. That would help us a great deal."

In response, Geithner said, "I agree with you on H-1B, by the way. It's just a question about how best to do it."

Hatch quickly answered, "Expand it."

The U.S. issues 85,000 H-1B visas each year, of which 20,000 are reserved for advanced-degree graduates of U.S. universities.

The Obama administration has said little about the H-1B program specifically, but in his State of the Union address last month, he urged an easier path to immigration for foreign students who graduate with advanced degrees from U.S. institutions.

Legislation to accomplish that may soon emerge from U.S. Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.). Lofgren drafted a proposal that would create a new employment-based permanent residency, or green card, category for advanced-degree graduates. It would bypass the need for an H-1B visa.

Two other senators, Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), want to limit the number of H-1B or L-1 visas to 50% of a company's U.S. workforce, the so-called 50/50 rule.

Patrick Thibodeau covers SaaS and enterprise applications, outsourcing, government IT policies, data centers and IT workforce issues for Computerworld. Follow Patrick on Twitter at Twitter @DCgov or subscribe to Patrick's RSS feed Thibodeau RSS. His e-mail address is pthibodeau@computerworld.com.


Thursday, February 17, 2011

Senator Goodlatte introduced bill to eliminate the DV Lottery Program

Posted On Thursday, February 17, 2011 by Rav 2 comments

Senator Goodlatte of Virginia introduced bill in the house to eliminate the diversity immigrant lottery program. Senator Issa had previously introduced similar bill in House to eliminate DV program and allocate these visa numbers towards issuing permanent residence to Science and Medical students who have earned advanced degree from an American University. These are two bills that are introduced back to back to eliminate DV program.

Here is the actual speech from Senator GoodLatte and text of the bill H.R. 704

SPEECH OF
HON. BOB GOODLATTE
OF VIRGINIA
IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2011

* Mr. GOODLATTE. Mr. Speaker, I rise today to introduce the bipartisan ``Security and Fairness Enhancement (SAFE) for America Act.'' This much-needed legislation eliminates the controversial visa lottery program, through which 50,000 aliens are chosen at random to come and live permanently in the United States based on pure luck. The visa lottery program threatens national security, results in the unfair administration of our Nation's immigration laws, and encourages a cottage industry for fraudulent opportunists.

* Because winners of the visa lottery are chosen at random, the visa lottery program presents a serious national security threat. A perfect example of the system gone awry is the case of Hesham Mohamed Ali Hedayet, the Egyptian national who killed two and wounded three during a shooting spree at Los Angeles International Airport in July of 2002. He was allowed to apply for lawful permanent resident status in 1997 because of his wife's status as a visa lottery winner.

* The State Department's Inspector General has even weighed in on the national security threat posed by the visa lottery program. During testimony before the House Committee on the Judiciary, the Office of Inspector General stated that the Office ``continues to believe that the diversity visa program contains significant risks to national security from hostile intelligence officers, criminals, and terrorists attempting to use the program for entry into the United States as permanent residents.''

* Even if improvements were made to the visa lottery program, nothing would prevent terrorist organizations or foreign intelligence agencies from planting members in the U.S. by having those members apply for the program. As long as those individuals do not have previous criminal backgrounds, these types of organized efforts would never be detected, even if significant background checks and counter-fraud measures were enacted within the program.

* Usually, immigrant visas are issued to foreign nationals that have existing connections with family members lawfully residing in the United States or with U.S. employers. These types of relationships help ensure that immigrants entering our country have a stake in continuing America's success and have needed skills to contribute to our Nation's economy. However, under the visa lottery program, visas are awarded to immigrants at random without meeting such criteria.

* In addition, the visa lottery program is unfair to immigrants who comply with the United States' immigration laws. The visa lottery program does not expressly prohibit illegal aliens from applying to receive visas through the program. Thus, the program treats foreign nationals that comply with our laws the same as those that blatantly violate our laws. In addition, most family-sponsored immigrants currently face a wait of years to obtain visas, yet the lottery program pushes 50,000 random immigrants with no particular family ties, job skills or education ahead of these family and employer-sponsored immigrants each year with relatively no wait. This sends the wrong message to those who wish to enter our great country and to the international community as a whole.

* Furthermore, the visa lottery program is wrought with fraud. A report released by the Center for Immigration Studies states that it is commonplace for foreign nationals to apply for the lottery program multiple times using many different aliases. In addition, the visa lottery program has spawned a cottage industry featuring sponsors in the U.S. who falsely promise success to applicants in exchange for large sums of money. Ill-informed foreign nationals are willing to pay top dollar for the ``guarantee'' of lawful permanent resident status in the U.S.

* The State Department's Office of Inspector General confirms these allegations of widespread fraud in a September 2003 report. Specifically, the report states that the visa lottery program is ``subject to widespread abuse'' and that ``identity fraud is endemic, and fraudulent documents are commonplace.'' Furthermore, the report also reveals that the State Department found that 364,000 duplicate applications were detected in the 2003 visa lottery alone.

* In addition, the visa lottery program is by its very nature discriminatory. The complex formula for assigning visas under the program arbitrarily disqualifies natives from countries that send more than 50,000 immigrants to the U.S. within a five-year period, which excludes nationals from countries such as Brazil, Canada, India, the Philippines and others.

* The visa lottery program represents what is wrong with our country's immigration system. My legislation would eliminate the visa lottery program. The removal of this controversial program will help ensure our Nation's security, make the administration of our immigration


H. R. 704

To amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to eliminate the diversity immigrant program.

IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

February 15, 2011

Mr. GOODLATTE (for himself, Mr. DEFAZIO, Mr. SMITH of Texas, Mr. SHERMAN, Mr. WOLF, Mr. COFFMAN of Colorado, Mr. CONAWAY, Mr. MARCHANT, Mrs. MYRICK, Mr. GALLEGLY, Mr. KING of Iowa, Mr. WEST, and Mr. BILBRAY) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on the Judiciary


A BILL

To amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to eliminate the diversity immigrant program.

    Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,

SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.

    This Act may be cited as--
      (1) the `Security and Fairness Enhancement for America Act of 2011'; or
      (2) the `SAFE for America Act'.

SEC. 2. ELIMINATION OF DIVERSITY IMMIGRANT PROGRAM.

    (a) Worldwide Level of Diversity Immigrants- Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151) is amended--
      (1) in subsection (a)--
        (A) by inserting `and' at the end of paragraph (1);
        (B) by striking `; and' at the end of paragraph (2) and inserting a period; and
        (C) by striking paragraph (3); and
      (2) by striking subsection (e).
    (b) Allocation of Diversity Immigrant Visas- Section 203 of such Act (8 U.S.C. 1153) is amended--
      (1) by striking subsection (c);
      (2) in subsection (d), by striking `(a), (b), or (c),' and inserting `(a) or (b),';
      (3) in subsection (e), by striking paragraph (2) and redesignating paragraph (3) as paragraph (2);
      (4) in subsection (f), by striking `(a), (b), or (c)' and inserting `(a) or (b)'; and
      (5) in subsection (g), by striking `(a), (b), and (c)' and inserting `(a) and (b)'.
    (c) Procedure for Granting Immigrant Status- Section 204 of such Act (8 U.S.C. 1154) is amended--
      (1) by striking subsection (a)(1)(I); and
      (2) in subsection (e), by striking `(a), (b), or (c)' and inserting `(a) or (b)'.
    (d) Effective Date- The amendments made by this section shall take effect on October 1, 2011.