Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Friday, March 4, 2011

Can America keep best, brightest immigrants? - MSNBC Nightly News

Posted On Friday, March 04, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

America's visa restrictions lead to reverse brain drain

Please see the video. Tom Brokaw addresses the concern that America is losing its best and brightest immigrants because of visa restrictions. From 1995 to 2005, a quarter of start-up technology or engineering companies had at least one immigrant founder. It talks about most of the H1B issues with not much emphasis on Employment-Based Green Cards.



Look around the offices of SnapDeal, an online coupon business, and it's not hard to see all the signs of a thriving venture.

A young staff full of drive and ambition, a tote board on the wall tracking new customers, one about every second.

But SnapDeal isn't in Silicon Valley — it's in New Delhi, India.

Kunal Bahl, 27, and his partner, Rohit Bansal, launched SnapDeal in February 2010. They're already the No. 1 e-commerce retailer in India.

“SnapDeal is a very simple concept,” Bahl said. “Every day there is one attractive deal and people come to the website, buy the deal and go use it at the merchant.”

Bahl's company has created 300 jobs — and counting. But he sometimes wonders "what if …?" What if the country where he got his education, where he helped start a company while still in business school, had let him stay?

“I put my chips in the American basket and said let me try my hand here,” said Bahl, who earned an engineering degree from the University of Pennsylvania and a business degree from its Wharton School.

But Bahl's visa ran out, and he took his skills back to India.

The United States issues only 85,000 of the so-called H1B visas for highly skilled workers each year. And these expire after six years.

There's broad agreement that the current immigration and visa system needs reform — that's going to need to come from Congress.

Still, the State Department does what it can to help encourage entrepreneurship around the world.

The San Francisco Bay Area — the home of Silicon Valley, Stanford University and the University of California, Berkeley — has always been a magnet for the best and brightest from foreign lands, but now many are wondering, why do U.S. immigration officials make it so hard for them to stay?

“We're strengthening our competitors, we're weakening ourselves,” said Vivek Wadhwa, a visiting professor at Berkeley and research associate with the Labor and Worklife Program at Harvard Law School. He has been warning of a "reverse brain drain" for years.

"There are a lot of very good human beings who are unemployed, who have lost their jobs,” Wadhwa said. “It's easy for them to blame foreigners. What they don't understand is people like me, when I came to this country, I came to study. My first company created 1,000 jobs. My second company created 200 jobs.

Wadhwa's research found that between 1995 and 2005, 25 percent of startups in Silicon Valley had at least one immigrant founder. And those startups created nearly a half-million jobs.

U.S. immigration rules are big roadblocks for the enterprising foreigners.

Martin Kleppmann, German co-founder of San Francisco startup Rapportive, which shows users everything about their contacts from inside their email inboxes, said everyone has stories to share about how painful the visa process has been.

“You're trying to quickly engage with customers — make sure that everything's developing, and at the same time, you've got this huge distraction — worrying whether you're going to get kicked out of the country,” said Kleppmann, who has a bachelor's in computer science from the University of Cambridge and studied music composition at the Royal Scottish Academy of Music and Drama.

At a gathering of nearly a dozen young Silicon Valley entrepreneurs recently, more than half said they think they’ll end up back in their home countries rather than staying in the U.S. because of visa issues — and they would take jobs with them when they leave.

Immigration officials often don't even understand the technology business.

Kleppmann drew laughs from the group when he explained an example.

“In our case — we got a beautiful letter from the immigration service asking to prove that we had enough warehouse space to store our software inventory. We don't even have boxes of software, it's all on the Internet."

Sakina Arsiwala of India co-founded San Francisco-based Campfire Labs, a startup that wants to "change the way people think of social interactions in the real world and online."

“Why deal with all this, you know, old school immigration systems, just go where you're wanted, you know?” said Arsiwala, a software engineer who formerly headed YouTube's international business for Google. She studied at the University of Mumbai and San Francisco State University.

Bahl went where he felt welcome. Close to family in a newly vibrant India.

“There is no ‘either or’ relationship between the American dream and the Indian dream, Bahl said. “They can both exist, it's just that the guys who are building the Indian dream right now could have been part of the American dream, too.”

In an interesting twist in Bahl's case, he's looking into launching SnapDeal internationally, including in the U.S., and hiring Americans to help him do it.


Source - http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41894670/ns/business-consumer_news/


No new H or L visa appointments will be made at the Mumbai Consulate

Posted On Friday, March 04, 2011 by Rav 0 comments


Partial Reduction in Visa Operations at U.S. Consulate, Mumbai
March 3, 2011

The U.S is committed to facilitating the visa interview process throughout India. We are constructing a new Consulate for Mumbai. The new multi-million dollar Mumbai Consulate facility is scheduled to open later this year.

Unfortunately, the current Mumbai Consulate building’s aging infrastructure has forced us to close several of the interview windows in Mumbai, limiting the number of applicants that can be accommodated at a given time.

If you have already scheduled an H or L visa interview appointment at the Mumbai Consulate, you may keep that interview time. No new H or L visa appointments will be made at the Mumbai Consulate. New H and L interviews may be scheduled at the other U.S. Consulates in India or the Embassy in New Delhi.

Appointments will be scheduled via VFS at https://www.vfs-usa.co.in/USIndia/Index.html. Appointment times can be found on the VFS website.


April 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Posted On Friday, March 04, 2011 by Rav 57 comments

April 2011 Visa Bulletin will be out soon. Here is the prediction for April 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

Predictions
  • EB3- China could advance to 15 April 2004
  • EB3-Philippines could advance to 01 August 2005. (Correction : EB3 - Philippines would advance to 22 July 2005. At no point retrogressed country can have Priority Date beyond EB3- ROW)
  • EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 February 2004.
  • EB3-ROW could advance to 22 July 2005.
  • EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
  • EB3-India could advance to 01 April 2002.
  • EB2-India would not see any movement.
  • EB2-China could advance to 15 Jul 2006.



Thursday, March 3, 2011

H1B FY 2012 Will Not Require Online Preregistration of Employers to File H-1B Cap Petitions

Posted On Thursday, March 03, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

As per recent press release by USCIS, it seems like H1B Pre-registration rule will not be effective until March 2012. So individuals planning to apply for H1B-FY 2012 should not worry about this at this time. Please read press release and FAQ on the rule below. The proposed rule was posted to the Federal Register today for public viewing. USCIS encourages formal comments on the proposed rule through www.regulations.gov. The comment period runs for 60 days, beginning March 3, 2011, and ending May 2, 2011.

USCIS Announces Proposed H-1B Electronic Registration System to Reduce Costs for U.S. Businesses

March 2, 2011

WASHINGTON—U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is publishing tomorrow a proposed rule that could save U.S. businesses more than $23 million over the next 10 years by establishing an advance registration process for U.S. employers seeking to file H-1B petitions for foreign workers in specialty occupations. The proposed electronic system would minimize administrative burdens and expenses related to the H-1B petition process—including reducing the need for employers to submit petitions for which visas would not be available under the statutory visa cap.

USCIS Director Alejandro Mayorkas today announced the opening of a 60-day comment period that will allow businesses and the general public to provide input on the proposed system in order to ensure it best meets the needs of employers that rely on H-1B visas to bring in foreign workers for specialty occupations.

“The proposed rule would create a more efficient and cost-effective process for businesses interested in bringing workers in specialty occupations to the United States,” he said. “Improving the H-1B petition process is part of USCIS’s ongoing efforts to leverage new ideas and innovation to streamline our operations and enhance customer service.”

Under the proposed rule, employers seeking to petition for H-1B workers subject to the statutory cap would register electronically with USCIS—a process that would take an estimated 30 minutes to complete. Before the petition filing period begins, USCIS would select the number of registrations predicted to exhaust all available visas. Employers would then file petitions only for the selected registrations. The registration system would save employers the effort and expense of filing H-1B petitions, as well as Labor Condition Applications, for workers who would be unable to obtain visas under the statutory cap.

The proposed rule, which posted to the Federal Register today for public viewing, contains complete details about the registration system and estimated cost savings. USCIS encourages formal comments on the proposed rule through www.regulations.gov. The comment period runs for 60 days, beginning March 3, 2011, and ending on May 2, 2011.

For more information on the proposed H-1B rule, please see the accompanying Fact Sheet. For more information on USCIS and its programs, visit www.uscis.gov.


USCIS Seeks Public Comment on Proposed H-1B Registration System Fact Sheet

March 2, 2011

Advance Registration Process Would Reduce Costs for U.S. Businesses

Introduction

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is seeking public comment on a proposed rule that could save U.S. businesses more than $23 million over the next 10 years, according to USCIS estimates. This proposed rule would establish an electronic registration process for U.S. employers seeking to file H-1B petitions for foreign workers in specialty occupations. The proposed electronic system would minimize administrative burdens and expenses related to the H-1B petition process—including reducing the need for employers to submit petitions for which visas would not be available under the statutory visa cap.

The proposed rule was posted to the Federal Register today for public viewing. USCIS encourages formal comments on the proposed rule through www.regulations.gov. The comment period runs for 60 days, beginning March 3, 2011, and ending May 2, 2011.

Background

The H-1B is a non-immigrant visa which allows U.S. employers to temporarily employ foreign workers in specialty occupations. USCIS proposes to establish an advance, electronic registration process for U.S. employers seeking to file H-1B petitions subject to either the 65,000 statutory cap or the 20,000 statutory visa cap exemption. By statute, H-1B visas are subject to an annual numerical limit, or cap, of 65,000 visas each fiscal year. The first 20,000 petitions for these visas filed on behalf of individuals with U.S. master’s degrees or higher are exempt from this cap.

Under the proposed rule, USCIS would establish an advance registration system. USCIS would inform the public of the registration process for any given year on its website at www.uscis.gov. The proposed advance registration process would require employers seeking to petition for H-1B workers subject to the statutory visa cap to simply register electronically with USCIS—a process that would only take 30 minutes to complete. Before the petition filing period begins, USCIS would select the number of registrations estimated to exhaust all available visas. Employers would then file petitions only for the selected registrations. The registration system would save employers the currently imposed effort and expense of submitting H-1B petitions, as well as Labor Condition Applications (LCA), for workers who would be unable to obtain visas under the statutory cap.

Questions & Answers

Q1. Why is USCIS proposing a change to the H-1B filing process?
A1. This rule reflects the Obama administration’s commitment to smart, tough and effective strategies that leverage the U.S. immigration system to the greatest benefit of immigrants and businesses. The proposed registration system would save employers the effort and expense of submitting full H-1B petitions, as well as LCAs, for prospective employees who will not be able to obtain visas under the statutory cap.

The current process requires U.S. employers to first obtain an LCA from the U.S. Department of Labor. Upon certification of the LCA, the employer may then file an H-1B petition with USCIS on Form I-129 (Petition for an Alien Worker). USCIS may only accept the properly filed H-1B petition if the statutory cap has not been reached.

Q2. Will the proposed advance registration process go into effect right away?
A2. No. Publication of the proposed rule is only the beginning of the regulatory process where USCIS announces its proposal and solicits public comments on that proposal. This proposed rule provides for a 60-day public comment period, which will allow businesses and the general public to provide input on the proposed system in order to ensure it best meets the needs of employers that rely on H-1B visas to bring in foreign workers for specialty occupations. After receipt and analysis of the comments, USCIS will draft a final rule. The registration process would only become effective after the final rule is published.

Q3. How would this advance registration impact the processing time for H-1B petitions?
A3. This proposed rule would not impact the processing times for Form I-129, once an H-1B petition has been accepted for adjudication.

Q4. What is the estimated financial impact of this proposed rule for businesses?
A4. USCIS prepared an economic assessment of the benefits and costs anticipated to occur as a result of this rule, and we estimate that the net savings for H-1B petitioners would be more than $23 million over the next 10 years.

Q5. When could USCIS use this advance registration process?
A5. This electronic registration system will not go into effect until a final rule is published and becomes effective. If a final version of the rule is published by January 2012, USCIS could implement the proposed registration system for the fiscal year 2013 H-1B season, which opens in April 2012.

Q6. How may I provide comments on the proposed registration process?
A6. To comment on the proposed rule, members of the public can submit written comments by using any one of the following methods:

  • Federal Rulemaking Portal: www.regulations.gov. Follow the instructions for submitting comments.
  • E-mail: rfs.regs@dhs.gov. Please include DHS Docket No. USCIS-2008-0014 in the subject line of the message.
  • Mail: Chief, Regulatory Products Division, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, Department of Homeland Security, 20 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20529-2020. To ensure proper handling, please reference DHS Docket No. USCIS-2008-0014 on your correspondence. This mailing address may also be used for paper, disk, or CD-ROM submissions.
  • Hand Delivery/Courier: U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, Department of Homeland Security, 20 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20529. Contact telephone number: 1-202-272-8377.
Source: www.uscis.gov