Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Friday, January 7, 2011

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

Posted On Friday, January 07, 2011 by Rav 6 comments

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS. LUD is an abbreviation for 'Last Updated Date'. In order to track any activity on your pending petition, you will first need to register an account with USCIS to check your case status online.

Here is a link to register for USCIS case tracking system. Once you are registered to the system, you will need to add each case you want to track based on receipt number on notice that you had recently received from USCIS. You will see your case as shown below. You can track LUD (Last Updated Date) on your case in column shown with red box below.


You can go into each case to check your status. USCIS allows an individual to setup an email or mobile alert to track case status update.


Hard LUDs
"Hard" LUD (Last Updated Date) is one where you see status update to your case. Example from "Initial Review" to "Decision". Here you know why case was updated; you can see the update status online. You can even get an email or mobile alert, if you had opted for this option. However, the status will only change if the USCIS updates your case from one to other (receipt notice, approval notice, request for evidence (RFE), notice of intent to deny (NOID), card production, or other documents) or on receipt of response to RFE, NOID or request to premium process the case.

Soft LUDs
"Soft LUD" is one where you will not see any change in status or get an email alert from USCIS. These are the internal activities that occur at USCIS. For example your I-485 case has been processed and ready to be approved, but USCIS could not approve it because your priority date is not current. Others like your fingerprints get added in the system, your background check results are received, your case was moved internally from one cabinet to other or moved from one service center to other etc. You can track this by logging into USCIS Case Status system and checking "Last Updated" column in your portfolio. If you know that you expect any update in your case due to FP or background check or your I-485 is about to process, you can track this based on "Soft LUD". But again, this is all based on guesstimate and no one other than USCIS knows what is the real reason behind the update. My personal opinion is that I would not lose my sleep over tracking Soft LUDs. You will never get anything useful from it.


Bill in House to Eliminate DV Lottery Program and Reallocate Visa Numbers to Employment Based Green Card

Posted On Friday, January 07, 2011 by Rav 4 comments

Recently Senator Issa (R-CA) introduced a bill in house to eliminate the diversity immigrant program and to re-allocate those visas to certain employment-based immigrants who obtain an advanced degree in the United States in field of science or medicine. According to proposed bill visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 55,000, to qualified immigrants who--
  • are a member of a profession holding an advanced degree obtained within the United States;
  • ·obtained such degree within the United States during the 5-year period preceding the date on which the petition filed under section 204(a)(1)(F) for classification under this subparagraph is filed; or has resided continuously in the United States in a lawful nonimmigrant status since obtaining such degree; and
  • whose services in the sciences or medicine

Why Introducing this Bill a good idea?

The diversity visa program applicant need not be skilled, professional, have an advanced degree or in an occupation that US is in dearth of. They are just picked randomly. When they come to US they may not be able to contribute to the economy immediately. It should be noted that to qualify for a Diversity Visa, you only need a high school education or its equivalent or to qualify on the basis of your work experience, individual must, within the past five years, have two years of experience in an occupation that is designated as Job Zone 4 or 5, classified in a Specific Vocational Preparation (SVP) range of 7.0 or higher. Additionally it is also limited to certain countries that are poorly represented yet in the US. People from countries such as Philippines, Mexico and other nationalities are automatically not included in the list as a result. This program was good when it was first enacted to encourage more diversity but since then US has been a melting pot of vastly diversified population, so this may not be necessary any more. There is no doubt that America needs talented and skilled workers in science and medicine for continuous economic growth to keep their competitive edge over other countries. It doesn't make sense for an individual who has studied in an US University and currently employed by an US employer to go back home and compete with US companies rather than staying here and contributing towards innovation in their field.

Will this bill pass in House?

Number of Bills to stop the Diversity Visa category has been introduced in Congress regularly almost since the DV program started with the last Comprehensive Immigration Reform in 1989. None of these bills have ever made it very far in House. So in my opinion, readers should not be disappointed if this bill is killed in the House once again.

You can read complete text of the H.R.43.IH Bill here.


Tuesday, January 4, 2011

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

Posted On Tuesday, January 04, 2011 by Rav 1 comments

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

USCIS do understand that circumstance may arise when an individual has to travel outside country in emergency. USCIS has a procedure that should be followed to obtain emergency AP document under these circumstances.

Emergency Travel

Overview

In case of an emergency, and before leaving the United States, you should know what documents will be required to reenter the United States as well as understand whether or not your departure will negatively impact your application(s) for immigration benefits.

As a general rule, any person who is not a U.S. citizen or non-citizen U.S. national is subject to immigration review each time the person seeks admission to the United States from any place outside the United States. Even if you have already been admitted as a permanent resident (you have a green card) you are subject to review by an immigration official. If, during such review, you are determined to be inadmissible (even though you may have been admissible previously), you may be denied admission.

If you are seeking admission or parole at a port of entry you generally must have in your possession a valid and unexpired travel document (e.g. a green card, U.S. visa, an advance parole document) to present to the officer at the port of entry.

Depending on your immigration status or if you have an application for an immigration benefit pending, different types of travel documents may be required if you (including permanent residents) wish to return to the United States lawfully after travel abroad. These documents should be applied for, in certain cases, prior to your departure from the United States. Please see the "Travel Documents" link to the left for more information on the types of travel documents.

Caution

Travel outside of the United States may have severe consequences if you are in the process of adjusting your status (applying for a green card). In general, if you are seeking immigrant status (a green card) and depart the United States without the appropriate documentation (i.e. advance parole) you may be inadmissible to the United States upon return, or even if admitted, you may be found to have abandoned your application.

If you have been admitted as a nonimmigrant and have applied to extend the period of authorized nonimmigrant stay, or have applied to change to a different nonimmigrant status, you will automatically abandon the application if you leave the United States before USCIS makes a decision on the advance parole application. Receipt of an advance parole document does NOT prevent abandonment of the change of status or extension of stay application. Upon returning to the United States, you are likely to be denied admission if your current status has expired.

For the reasons stated above, it is important that you obtain the proper documentation before leaving the United States. Also, you should keep in mind that admission into the United States is not guaranteed even if the appropriate documents are obtained. In all cases, you are still subject to immigration inspection or examination at a port of entry to determine whether you are admissible into the country and whether you are eligible for the immigration status sought.

Asylum applicants, asylees, refugees, and lawful permanent residents who obtained such status based on their asylum or refugee status are also subject to special rules with regard to traveling outside the United States. Additional information regarding traveling outside the United States as well as the consequences that could result if an asylum applicant, an asylee, a refugee, or a lawful permanent resident who obtained such status based on his or her asylum or refugee status returns to his or her country of claimed persecution may be found in the Fact Sheet entitled "Traveling Outside the United States as an Asylum Applicant, an Asylee, or a Lawful Permanent Resident Who Obtained Such Status Based on Asylum Status" (see link to the right).

Unlawful Presence

If you depart the United States after accruing certain periods of unlawful presence in the United States (time spent in the United States illegally) you may be barred from admission for either three years or ten years, depending on the amount of unlawful presence an individual has accrued. Any departure from the United States may trigger this ground of inadmissibility, even if you have obtained an advance parole document.

If you have accrued more than 180 days, but less than 1 year, of unlawful presence and who voluntarily depart the United States before the start of removal proceedings are inadmissible if you seek admission within 3 years of the date of their departure. If you have accrued 1 year or more of unlawful presence and you depart the United States, whether or not removal proceedings have started, you are inadmissible if you seek admission within 10 years of the date of departure.

Criteria for Expedited Processing of an Application

USCIS will expedite an application, including an application for a travel document, Form I-131, in certain situations, which may include:

  • Severe financial loss to company or individual
  • Extreme emergent situation
  • Humanitarian situation
  • Nonprofit status of requesting organization in furtherance of the cultural and social interests of the United States
  • Department of Defense or National Interest Situation (Note: Request must come from official United States Government entity and state that delay will be detrimental to our Government.)
  • USCIS error
  • Compelling interest of USCIS

You may maket an expedite request by contacting the National Customer Service Center (NCSC) at 1-800-375-5283 or by submitting a written request and supporting documentation with your application.

Emergency Advance Parole Documents

If you are experiencing an extremely urgent situation, you may visit your local office to request an emergency advance parole document. When visiting a local office to request emergency advance parole, you should bring the following items:

  • A completed and signed Form I-131, Application for Travel Document
  • The correct I-131 filing fee
  • Evidence to support the emergency request (e.g. medical documentation, death certificate)
  • Two passport-style photos.

How to File

To apply for an emergency travel document, you must file Form I-131, Application for a Travel Document, complete with supporting documentation, photos and applicable fees (see link to the right). See the application for specific filing instructions.

Where to File

Where to file the Form I-131 depends on the benefit sought. See the form instruction page for details. Your local office may accept an emergency advance parole application if you are experiencing an extremely urgent situation. Business trips, weddings, holiday parties, and other planned events would usually not be considered an emergency situation. If you are filing Form I-131 for an emergency travel document at your local office based on an extremely urgent situation, you are encouraged to make an Infopass appointment first. See link to the right, "Make an Appointment (Infopass)."

When to File

You must apply for the travel document before leaving the United States. Generally, an applicant for a travel document must also complete biometrics capture at an Application Support Center (ASC) prior to departure from the United States. Failure to do so may cause the applicant to lose permission to reenter the country and lead to the denial of any other applications pending.

Source : www.uscis.gov


H1B FY 2011 - Still 1000 Visas Available under Regular Cap

Posted On Tuesday, January 04, 2011 by Rav 3 comments

AS of 31st December 2010, USCIS announced that atleast 1000 visa numbers are still available under Regular Cap Quota. Masters Quota has been reached. USCIS is still accepting application under Master's quota that will be counted towards regular cap. Regular Cap eligible petitioned received till date is 57,300