EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012? - (Post Sep VB)

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?

What movement do we expect for EB2-IC in FY 2012? 

Since now we know that EB2-India and China are stuck at 15^th April 2007 for this fiscal year, we can try and estimate what we can expect for this category in FY 2012.

Eb2-India and China still need 8000 more visas for EB2-IC to cross PD 15 August 2007. This is calculated plainly from the currently released visible demand data, without including 'People Who Missed the Boat" (PWMBs) during July 2007. Expected PWMB until 15 August 2007 cut-off date from September Visa bulletin cut-off date of 15 April 2007 are 8302. We firmly believe any PWMBs before July visa bulletin cut-off date of 08 March 2007 have good chance to get approved by September 30 or even in October, where USCIS usually tend to use some unused visa numbers from the last fiscal year.

So out of total PWMBs of 8,302 for EB2-IC until 15 August 2007, even if we assume that due to the economic recession and other unforeseen reasons, only 50% are eligible to pursue this, numbers still come out to be 4,151. So to sum up, without even crossing EB2-IC PD of July 2007, for next fiscal year EB2-IC has demand of 8,000 + 4,151 = 12,151.

Now we know as and when these PWMBs will become current and file for I-485 in order to become documentarily qualified, by that time we will be in Q2 or beyond for FY 2012. Based on annual limits and not considering any PWMBs, expected movement for EB2-IC is as tabulated below. This is based on no porting and no PWMBs. 

For EB2-India, movement will be very small or expect no movement for first quarter (Q1) and then in Q2 we can expect 1 week movement each month until DOS will try to intake extra inventory in Q3. EB2-China will progress much quicker than EB2-India. For EB2-China we can expect 4 weeks in Q1 and Q2 each, until DOS will allocate any extra movement to intake inventory for spillover season.

EB3-EB2 Porting and PWMBs before 15^th April 2007

Above tabulated estimation can all change, especially for EB2-India, if individuals in EB3 category with PD before 15 April 2007 will start porting. We expect EB3 to EB2 porting for FY 2012  will be at same level as FY 2011. Expected numbers should not be more than 2,800. Other than these porting numbers we should also consider calculated PWMBs before 15^th April 2007, which are 1,958. Again assuming that out of these only 50% are still eligible, this number comes out to be around 979. Out of these we expect 50% or more will use visa numbers from FY 2011 quota. So rollover backlog to FY 2012 will be 488.

So EB3 to EB2 Porting and PWMBs before 15 April 2007 that would be counted towards FY 2012 becomes 2,800 + 488 = 3,288. Of course, porting demand will be realized slowly and hence we can expect little but small movement for EB2- India. Movement depends on PWMB rollover and new porting demand. EB2-China should continue to move as outlined above as we expect no porting, and we expect FY 2011 rollover PWMB demand to be around 150 or less.

What will be the total demand for FY 2012 and how much spillover is required to cross 2007?

So now going back to total demand for FY 2012 as calculated above up to 15 August 2007 and adding demand for PWMBs up to cut-off at that time (4,151- 2,803 = 1,351) assuming dates around 01 June 2007), porting and rollover PWMBs and removing annual limit, (5600) total demand required to cross PD July 2007 (see large font numbers above)

8,000 +1,351 + 3,288 + 150 – 5,600 = 7,189

Total demand of 7,189 will be enough to keep DOS from worrying about taking any new inventory until April 2012. Once year will progress into early Q3, just like this year DOS may start looking into half yearly projected demand for EB1 and EB2-ROW. If at this point, annual visa limit for the EB2-IC (or any of the country) is exhausted due to above stated demand, DOS will start looking into using any available unused visa numbers. Although, DOS/USCIS are constrained to use only 30% of these numbers in first three quarters (but they made exception this year), this move would totally depend upon number of visas available.

If DOS feel there is more than 7189 unused visa numbers that they can expect based on past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements (quoted from our previous article), they will plan on taking extra inventory to make I-485 cases documentarily qualified for rest of the fiscal year.  Usually past trend has been around 3000 visa numbers each month for EB2-IC. 

So if expected spillover from half-yearly unused number is 10,000, they will try to intake for 18,000 or less, thus EB2-IC movement will be based on 18,000 – 7,189 = 10,811, thus crossing only 4-5 months from July 2007 at most at first trial and error. If after this movement, in case DOS would see change in demand pattern then they can try to retrogress dates or progress dates in July 2012 (Q4). Next fiscal year ,spillovers can either be used on a quarterly basis or we can expect some big movement in April 2012 and then second recalibration in July 2012.

If first trial and error would cause dates to move until PD December 2007 in early Q3 of FY2012; based on our estimation it will bring 11,664 EB2-I applications; 2,109 more EB2-C application; and  2803 new PWMBs post 01 June 2007 that were not considered above. These EB2-IC numbers comes from PERM data after applying I-140 conversion factor of 78%. After applying this, if we consider most optimistically due to economic recession or other unforeseen reason only 75% are eligible to pursue this anymore, total demand from Aug 2007 until December 2007 becomes  – (0.75 x (11664+2109)) +2803 = 11912 + 2803 = 14715.

Based on above 18,000 spillovers, 10,811 left after July 2007 would only take EB2-India and China to end of November 2007, and dates could retrogress from December 2007 in July 2012 . If we expect next year’s spillover will be same as this FY 2011 (very unlikely), and we will receive 25000 unused visa numbers, EB2-IC in FY 2012 will end up around January 2008. In reality dates can be anywhere between December 2007 to January 2008 for FY 2012.

It should be noted in above scenario I-140 to I-485 conversion is assumed 75% and PWMBs are assumed 50% eligible.

Now final question is if dates will retrogress or move forward after first huge movement in early Q3 for next fiscal year?

We are really hoping that DOS/USCIS should use quarterly spillover than half yearly spillover for next fiscal year. But Mr. Oppenheim being conservative in nature will move dates only in early Q3 around April 2012 and then recalibrate in July 2012. Dates retrogressing or moving forward will totally depend upon EB1 and EB2-ROW demand.

Do we expect retrogression in Q1 for EB2-I?

No, we do not expect retrogression for EB2-I in Q1 FY 2012. In case if that will happen, it will not be more than a month. Chances are very less.  

August 2011 Visa Bulletin and Estimation for September 2011

August 2011 Visa Bulletin was released  yesterday For Employment-Based category, EB-3 overall saw some movement in cut-off dates for each country. EB2 is current for all other countries except India and China. EB-2 India-China advanced to 15th April 2007. EB1, EB4 and EB5 are still current. Some movement for Family-Based categories overall.

Family-Based

• Family 1st – FB1 remains unchanged across all regions at May 1, 2004 for ROW, China and India, at March 8, 1993 for Mexico and at April 15, 1996 for Philippines.
• Family 2A –FB2A moves forward by four (4) months to July 22, 2008 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by four and a half (4.5) months to June 1, 2008.
• Family 2B – FB2B ROW, China and India remains unchanged at July 1, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by only one (1) week to October 1, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to December 1, 2000..
• Family 3rd – most countries moved to August 2001; Philippines  to November 1992; Mexico retrogressed to April 1992.
• Family 4th – most countries moved to April 2000; Philippines stalled at 15 May 1988; Mexico stalled at March 1996.

Employment-Based

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current while EB-2 China and EB-2 India both move forward by almost five (5) weeks to April 15, 2007.
• EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to November 1 , 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by only one (1) week to July 8, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by one (1) month to June 1, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico moves forward by over five (5) months to November 1, 2005.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by over five (5) months to May 1, 2005 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.  It moves forward by one  (1) month to June 1, 2002 for India .
• Employment 4th – still current in all categories
• Employment 5th – still current in all categories

VISA AVAILABILITY Notes from August Visa Bulletin

Family-sponsored: Heavy applicant demand for numbers in the Family First preference could require retrogression of some of the September Family First preference cut-off dates. This action may be necessary to keep visa issuances within the respective annual preference numerical limits. If this were to occur they could be expected to return to the previous cut-off date for October, the first month of the new fiscal year.

Employment-based: No Notes !!!!


Determination of annual limit for this fiscal year
 
The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Sections 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On June 9th, USCIS provided the required data to VO. (Also hints why no demand data was released, since complete data from CIS was received on June 9th and July bulletin was released on June 8th.)

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2011 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2011 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 140,000

Under INA Section 202(a), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2011 the per-country limit is 25,620. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,320.

Our Analysis on EB Category after August Visa Bulletin Release

EB3-ROW-M-P - EB3 ROW moved by three weeks to November 01, 2005. As seen with last few months, EB3-ROW only used 1500 visas from the visible demand. EB3-Mexico has utilized 5085 visa numbers for this year and has reached same level as EB3-ROW-P. Going forward EB3-ROW-M-P will move together. Since EB-3 category will not receive any spillover, we expect EB3-M-P to move by 4 weeks to 01 December 2005 for this fiscal year. This movement is based on at least 3188  (ROW-2584 +  M-304 + P-300 ) available visa numbers for EB3-ROW-M-P together. Please note, since each of these countries shares sames cut-off date, going forward for next month at least, they will share same cut-off date.

EB3-India - EB3 India moved one month due to decrease in demand due to porting case. Decrease in demand was 500. This along with monthly limit of 233, allowed total movement of 733 (Inventory upto May - Inventory upto April = 2710-2050). Even if there is no further reduction in demand due to porting, we still expect EB3-India to reach 15th June 2002 for this fiscal year just using 233 number of visas.


EB3-China - EB3-China may only move by a week or two for the coming bulletin. It is difficult to gauge movement for EB3-China due to high volume of invisible CP demand.

EB2-India  &  China - We believe EB2 India and China advanced to 15 April 2007 by utilizing at least 2580 additional unused visa numbers from EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5.

Number of applicants from 08March07 to 15April07 

[26469 + (28498-26469)/2] - [24383 + (26469 – 24383)/4 ]

= 27484 – 24904

= 2580

Till date visas used for this movement

= 22,875 (used upto 08Mar07)  + 5,600 (annual quota) + 2,580 (used in this bulletin)

= 31,055

At this point of time we would like to revisit our potential spillover source for the current fiscal year. We know that EB1 was suppose to give us 12,000 unused visa. It was never clear to us whether it was  a half-yearly or full-yearly projected numbers. After June 2011 released inventory, EB2-ROW was projected to have demand around 26,600 - 28,600 annual, yielding around 6000-8000 unused visa numbers. As per recent released EB5 visa usage number, it was quoted that EB5 demand can be as high as 4,260, thus yielding only 9,400 4230 = 5170 unused visa numbers. So putting these together with 5,600 annual quota for EB2-IC, available visas for EB2-IC becomes

EB1 + EB2-ROW + EB5 + EB2-IC annual quota

= 12000 + 8000 + 5170 +5600

= 30,770

Now from this, all we can conclude is  for EB1, 12K was a projected demand for half year, but  real demand did not convert into 24K. On average, we were hoping to get more 6K from EB1.  But  looking at the current movement, numbers expected now can be anywhere from 3K-6K. Of these expected EB1 numbers, we have already used 500 (31,055 - 30,770).

EB5 usage has been  a very big disappointment (or tough one to digest) for this year ; instead of yielding 7000 unused visa, it would only yield(ed) 5170 visas.

Taking EB1 and EB5 demand into account, worst case movement for September bulletin will be based on use of 2,500 unused visa numbers while best case could be around the use of 5,500 unused visa numbers.

Once date will reach July 2007, new cases, PWMBs and some porting will slow down the movement for Q1 and early Q2. Like this year, we can expect significant movement of priority dates in late Q2 or early Q3 of FY 2012. Movement upto first quarter of 2008 is possible with some retrogression in late Q3. We should remember NVC fee bill is valid upto one year.

Update from www.mitbbs.com

On 18th July there was some update on this site that where they mentioned that someone talked to Mr. Oppenheim through FOIA  or other means (please excuse my translation) and he mentioned that up until now only 121000 visas were used for EB category and at least 19k is still to be used in coming months.

The news on 19K visas available was confirmed in two ways as below

Method A

As per recent data released by USCIS until March 2011 for I-485- Employment Based.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf

I-485 Employment Adjustment upto March 2011 approvals are 45,981. At this rate , aprovals for I-485 for full year becomes, 91,962. Adding unused visa numbers used so far, total EB visas used for this year becomes 91962+30000 (SO used so far) = 121,962. So atleast 19K looks is still left from whole fiscal year. This suggest published information on www.mitbbs.com is very authentic and we might have anywhere from 12k-19k total EB visas avaiable for EB category for September.No CP demand included.


Method B

As per data that was released by USCIS day before yesterday -http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Application-for-Benefits/applications-for-benefits-2011-may.pdf , it suggests total I-485 application to adjust status received until May 2011 are 47,721.

Based on previously released USCIS Approval/Receipt information until March 2011;

I-485 Approved were – 45,981
I-485 Received were – 36,492
Approval/Receipt ratio – 1.26

Assuming same ratio for this newly released data until May 2011 – Approvals can be near – 1.26 x 47,721 = 60,128.This is for 8 months. 

For full year FY2011 – it becomes 12 x 60,128/8 = 90,192.

Again adding spillover used so far, total consumption becomes = 90,192 + 30,000 = 120,192

So visas available for September bulletin, again becomes 140,000 – 120,192 ~ 19K.

Other way to validate 19K news from www.mitbbs.com

Note - It does not include CP demand.

Out of these 19K how much can we expect for EB2-IC?

In above calculations we have not included any CP demand in this. CP demand can be anywhere from 5%-15%. Taking 5%, CP demand will make these 121,000 used EB visa number for FY 2011 until now to 127,000 visas used for EB category after including AOS + CP demand.

Then we should also remember that as per released USCIS data, I-140 stats until March 2011 suggests that for 42,096 receipts, there were only 30,820 approvals. So even if we assume that this difference was constantly maintained for entire year, there are still chances some of these 12000 would contain EB2-ROWs. Some of these remaining visa numbers from 19K will be used for such cases when they will be approved and become documentarily qualified. Even if 10% of these are EB2-ROW, we can have 1200 demand from EB2-ROW. Then addition to this we also have usual monthly demand for EB2-ROW, which can be anywhere from 500 -1500.

We do not know anything about EB1 demand. At this point when USCIS processing time has reduced to 4 months, we can see some of these EB1s can get attention. These EB1 approvals will take some visa numbers. I think in month of August, we can see many EB1 approvals as movement for EB2-IC is only 5 weeks for August bulletin. In addition with reduced backlog, some good numbers of EB1 approvals are expected in August.

In general EB3 demand for a month can be anywhere from 2400 + 4(233) = 3332.

So now if we will consider all these aspects, what EB2-IC can expect is

= 19000 - (CP + EB2-ROW(due to I-140) + regular EB2-ROW + EB1 + EB3) demand

= 19000 - (6000 + 1200 + 1000 + 1000 + 3332) = 6468

Thus numbers available for EB2-IC can be anywhere from 3500 - 8000. So movement can be anywhere from 1 June 2007 - 15 August 2007. It all depends upon demand for last month and we have no basis to come up with exact numbers.

I have not considered EB4 and EB5, which can take few 20-50 numbers here and there.Other than EB4-EB5, there are some PWMBs and dependents who has filed until July visa bulletin, who can become documentarily qualified by September 30.

EB2-IC September 2011 Priority Date Movement

P.S. - Whenever I have been conservative, we have seen great movement for EB2-IC.. I hope it works out like that this time as well.

Demand Data used for August 2011 VIsa Bulletin

 In order to capture this on the website, we are just posting the Demand Data released for August 2011 Vssa Bulletin in here. Please see cumulative difference in Demand Data for June and August 2011 visa bulletin below. It can give us difference in visa utilization for last two months.

Capturing previous Notes:

• EB3 category for ROW/M/P will reach as predicted.

• EB2 category demand is exactly that would be if you subtract difference of sum for inventory from January 2011 upto March and July 2007. So far spillover used is 22875 excluding 5600 annual quota. Further movement expected is for 10-12 k unused visa numbers. 

• For EB2- IC demand data show CP cases post 2007. Numbers are only few hundred to account for. Do not know if it is still worthwhile to make major movement and overwhelm USCIS for PD beyond July 2007 unless strategy is to get some inventory for next year.

• EB3-I demand post PD 2003 reduced to account for already ported cases. Point is USCIS looking into correct demand for EB3-I as if some chance of spillover to this category. I always thought spillover if available should go to EB3-ROW. But this is first time DOS will run into this.

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I-140 and I-485 Approval Rate and Updated GC Calculator

Here is the summarized information on annual I-140 and I-485 percentage approval rate for different service centers. This data is solely taken from published data on website - http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html ,and is just tabulated and presented here in different format. We have updated our green calculator to include I-140 conversion rate based on this data, Green Calculator, thus will not assume 100% I-140 approval rate for approved PERMs . This conversion rate is only used for calculation for any cut-off dates which are beyond July 2007.  For any priority date which is after or on October of the particular year, calculator will use the percentage approval rate value from the next year, thus assuming PERM approval time of 90 days.

Tabulated list below also considered volume of applications received at NSC and TSC in order to arrive at average I-140 and I-485 approval percentage, and succesively used those values to calculate 'rolling successive percentage'. Green Card calculator will use 'rolling successive average' to arrive at reduced number of applicants before your priority date to calculate estimated wait time. System will recommend I-140 conversion rate for each priority date.

I-140 conversion rate is also an 'USER ENTERED' entry where you can input values in 'Percentage' only. For e.g. If you will assume percentage as '75', entered value should be '0.75' or '75%'.

I-140 and I-485 Approval Rate for diffferent Service Centers



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Click Here to Check Updated Green Card Calculator

 

Source - http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html

Obtaining Green Card as Registered Nurse (RN)

With certain limited exceptions detailed below, petitioning for a foreign-born registered nurse (“RN”) to work in the United States involves sponsoring her for permanent residence.It currently takes  long time to immigrate a registered nurse to the U.S., more if the RN was born in Philippines, India or China.

Applying for the Registered Nurse Green Card:

• The Registered Nurse Green Card application process consists of filing the I-140 and I-485 petitions.
• The I-140 petition can be prepared and filed immediately.
• The I-485 petition can only be filed when the priority date is current.
• It is hoped that Congress will allocate additional visas or separate quota to make the priority date for RN’s current but bill is still pending in house.

What Regulations?

• The Department of Labor (DOL) maintains a schedule of occupations in its regulations for which the individual permanent labor certification procedure is not required.
• The schedule of precertified occupations is referred to as Schedule A, and is included in DOL regulations at 20 CFR 656.10.
• Based on an occupation’s inclusion on Schedule A, an employer may file an immigrant visa petition (I-140) directly with the (USCIS) without first going to DOL for a labor certification.
• The position of Professional Nurses is included on Schedule A.

Who Qualifies?

This category consists of registered nurses only. A licensed practical nurse is not considered a Professional Nurse under this category.

The Registered Nurse must possess:

Generally, if a RN is in the United States, the nurse will be able to start working for the employer more expeditiously than if she resides abroad.

1. The RN is required to present to the CIS many of the same documents as stated later in this article. However, since she is in the U.S., she may take the RN licensing examination (officially known as the National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses or the “NCLEX-RN”) in any state. The NCLEX-RN is administered by the National Council of State Boards of Nursing. For more information regarding the exam, see http://www.ncsbn.org

2. The employer must submit an immigrant visa petition to the appropriate CIS Service Center on behalf of the nurse. In order for the visa petition to be approved, the RN must have passed either the CGFNS exam or the NCLEX exam, or be in possession of a “full and unrestricted license” as a registered nurse in the state of intended employment.

Simultaneously with the submission of the visa petition, the RN and her accompanying family members may apply for adjustment of status to permanent residence, for work permits, and in most cases, for travel permits. A nurse need not be in possession of a VisaScreen certificate in order to apply for permanent residence. However, she cannot obtain permanent residence without being in possession of a VisaScreen certificate

If the RN resides abroad, the following steps must be completed before the nurse may be employed in the U.S.:

1. The RN must be in possession of:

a. A diploma from a nursing school in her country;

b. An RN license in her country; and

c. A full and unrestricted license to practice professional nursing in the state of intended employment, or a certification issued by the Commission on Graduates of Foreign Nursing Schools (CGFNS), or evidence that she has passed the NCLEX-RN licensing examination but cannot obtain a license because she lacks a social security number.

Although some states require that foreign nurses pass the CGFNS examination before taking the state RN licensing (NCLEX) examination, the number of such states is on the decline. This is because, it now possible to take the NCLEX abroad.

The examination is offered in Australia (Sydney), Canada (Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver), Great Britain (London), Hong Kong, India (Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad, Mumbai and New Delhi), Japan (Chiyoda-ku and Yokohama), Korea (Seoul), Germany (Frankfurt), Mexico (Mexico City), Philippines (Manila) and Taiwan (Taipei). In addition, RNs may take the NCLEX in Guam, Puerto Rico and Saipan.

2. RNs together with physical therapists are listed as shortage, or “Schedule A”, occupations in regulations (20 C.F.R. §656.22) issued by the Department of Labor. An employer who wishes to immigrate an RN is exempt from having to submit a PERM application to the Department of Labor.

Application Process if the Nurse is Outside the U.S.:

• The Employer files the Form I-140 and ETA 9089 along with the required supporting documents with the USCIS.
• Once the USCIS approves the I-140 Petition (3-6 months), the USCIS first sends the I-140 Petition to the National Visa Center (NVC) in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.
• The nurse (or her attorney) receives a “fee bill” asking for all government processing fees to be paid in advance of processing her application and those of her immediate family members. After the fees are paid, the NVC forwards a packet to the nurse or her attorney containing biographical information forms to be completed by her and her family members, and a list of documents, which must be presented at her interview for permanent residence.
• The RN, or her attorney, sends the signed and completed forms and documents to the NVC which then schedules an appointment for an Immigrant Visa for the RN and her family at the U.S. Consulate or Embassy where they will have their interviews for permanent residence.
• At this interview, the nurse must present various documents including the following:

a. Application for Immigrant Visa
b. Police Clearance
c. Birth Certificate
d. Marriage Certificate, if any
e. Divorce or Death Certificate of Spouse, if any
f. Valid Passport
g. Medical Examination
h. USCIS Photographs
i. Recent job offer letter (or employment contract)
j. Financial information regarding employer
k. Government filing fee
l. VisaScreen Certificate

The VisaScreen Certificate requirement was imposed by §343, a last-minute amendment to the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 (IIRIRA). It added “uncertified health-care workers” to the list of persons who are inadmissible to the U.S. See §212(a)(5)(C), INA. A nurse need not be in possession of a VisaScreen certificate in order to apply for permanent residence. However, she cannot obtain permanent residence without being in possession of a VisaScreen certificate

A VisaScreen Certificate is issued only after the RN has demonstrated that:

• her education, license and training in her country are equivalent to education, licensure and training in the U.S., and,
• her level of competence in oral and written English are appropriate to practice professional nursing in the U.S.

The USCIS regulations provide that the only organization authorized to issue VisaScreen certificates to RNs is the Commission on Graduates of Foreign Nursing Schools (CGFNS).

In addition, unless the nurse was educated in an English-speaking country (U.S., Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, United Kingdom or Canada – all provinces except Quebec), she must achieve a certain score on tests in written and spoken English administered by TOEFL (Test Of English As A Foreign Language) or MELAB (Michigan English Language Assessment Battery) in order to qualify for a VisaScreen certificate.

Passing scores for RNs on English exams are as follows:

• IELTS: Academic Module or the General Training Module 6.5, Overall Band Score, 7.0 Speaking
• TOEFL: Paper-Based 540; TOEFL Computer-Based 207; Test of Written English (TWE) 4.0; Test of Spoken English (TSE) 50.
• TOEIC: 725; plus TWE: 4.0 and TSE: 50
• Passing scores for the MELAB were as follows: Final Score 79+; Oral Interview 3+.

Source - www.usavisanow.com

I-485 Case Tracker for Priority Dates those are Current

New "I-485 Case Tracker ONLY for Priority Dates those are Current" is currently released, and open for comments and suggestion. Please use I-485 Case Application Tracker for your case ONLY if your Priority Date has recently became 'Current' in previous or current visa bulletin. Please note that your "Name" cannot have duplicate entries. Data once added will allow editing only few fields.

Goal of this tracker to track approval time after getting 'current' and efforts individual has to take before receiving approvals.

As of now tracker will take into account

Name ▼

Visa Bulletin Month ▼

Visa Category ▼

Chargeability ▼

Priority Date ▼

AOS/CP ▼

I-485 Case Status ▼

Case Type ▼

I-485 Approval Date ▼

Comments ▼

Rep Contacted ▼

Rep Contact Date ▼

SR Opened ▼

SR Open Date ▼

CP Interview Notice Date ▼

EAD/AP Received Date ▼

Biometrics Notice Receiving Date ▼

If you have more suggestions please leave comments.

Check I-485 Tracker here

August 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for August 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations and as long as EB2-India and China will continue to receive spillover as per INA Section 202(a)(5).

August 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions 

To access password restricted area, please send email to usnonimmigrants@gmail.com with Subject "August 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions" (without quotes). Each email will receive unique decryption key (or password) to check the post. Please refrain from posting predictions anywhere on other websites and other posts. These predictions are only for our readers who use these for their guidelines and to plan their life in US. These predictions will be updated as month will progress and better information is released.

Note : In EB2-IC predictions, please read EB3-ROW as EB2-ROW.

Click Here to Enter Password and View Predictions

EB2 - IC Poll- People Who Filed Without Dependents (PFWD) during July 2007 fiasco.

In order to calculate the amount of retrogression that will happen after September 2011 for EB2 India and China (in case dates will reach beyond July 2007), we would like to start collecting some information on number of people who did not filed for dependents during July Fiasco. This data in addition to People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007 will exclusively help us to get some information on retrogression post September 2011. If we do not see cut-off dates crossing July 2007 for this fiscal year then this data will anyways be helpful for next years spillover calculation. We would really appreciate your corporation in accumulating this data. We are hoping such individuals will be less in numbers but we want to account them for furthur calculations.

Please select your Priority Date below if you have not filed for dependents during July 2007 fiasco

Please select your family size (excluding you) below if you have not filed for dependents during July 2007 fiasco

PERM Processing Times as of May 31, 2011

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. There is great reduction in audit cases. Compared to last month audit case processing time has moved from December 2009. to August 2010. Improvement by leaps and bounds. Huge reduction in inventory. DOL has started processing cases from April 2011. On average expect wait-time of 60 days for PERM approval. We expect that audit case processing times will improve until January 2011 by next month and then will keep pace with regular approvals with audit cases taking on average just 6 months.

PERM Processing Times as of May 31, 2011

• Analyst Reviews: April 2011


• Audits: July-August 2010


• Standard Appeals: Octoberer 2008


• Government Error Appeals: Current

July 2011 Visa Bulletin and EB Category Movement Analysis

July 2011 Visa Bulletin was released today. For Employment-Based category, EB-3 overall saw some movement in cut-off dates for each country. EB2 is current for all other countries except India and China. EB-2 India-China advanced to 08 March 2007. EB1, EB4 and EB5 are still current. Good movement for Family-Based categories overall.

Family-Based

Family 1st – FB1 ROW, China and India remain unchanged at May 1, 2004. FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to March 8, 1993. FB1 Philippines moves forward by two (2 ) months to April 15, 1996.

Family 2A – FB2A moves forward by seven (7) months to

March 22, 2008 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by seven (7) months to February 15, 2008.

Family 2B – FB2B ROW, China and India remain (a

gain) unchanged at April 15, 2003. FB2B Mexico moves forward by three (3) weeks to August 22, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by three (3) months to June 8, 2000.

Family 3rd – most countries advanced to July 2003; Philippines moves to March 1992; Mexico stayed at 15 November 1992.

Family 4th – most countries stalled at January or March 2000; Philippines advanced to 1 5May 1988; Mexico advanced to March 1996.

Employment-Based

Employment 1st – still current in all categories

Employment 2nd – EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current, EB-2 India-China see significant movement to 08 March 2007.

Employment 3rd – EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to October 8, 2005, EB-3 China moves forward by six (6) weeks to July 1, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by one (1) week to May 1, 2002. EB-3 Mexico moves forward by seven (7) months to July 01, 2005.

Employment 3rd (Others)- The “other worker” category remains unchanged at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by one year two (2) weeks to November 22, 2004 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines. It moves forward by one (1) week to May 01, 2002 for India

Employment 4th – still current in all categories

Employment 5th – still current in all categories


VISA AVAILABILITY Notes from June Visa Bulletin

Family-sponsored: For July, F2A numbers EXEMPT from per-country limit are available to applicants from all countries with priority dates earlier than 15FEB08. F2A numbers SUBJECT to per-country limit are available to applicants chargeable to all countries EXCEPT MEXICO with priority dates beginning 15FEB08 and earlier than 22MAR08. (All F2A numbers provided for MEXICO are exempt from the per-country limit; there are no F2A numbers for MEXICO subject to per-country limit.)

Employment-based: No Notes !!!!

Our Analysis on EB Category after July Visa Bulletin Release

EB3-ROW-M-P - EB3 ROW moved by three weeks to October 08, 2005. As seen with last few months, EB3-ROW only used 1400 visas from the visible demand. At this pace EB3-ROW can ONLY reach mid November by September 2011 visa bulletin. Either lot of the annual visa consumption is going into approving monthly cases returned from Local Offices to USCIS or these visas are utilized by EB3-Mexico. So far, for the current year as per I-485 inventory, EB3-Mexico has utilized 4010 visa numbers. These excess visa utilization suggests that either lot of old I-485 cases were denied for Mexico or DOS is trying to use as much visa numbers for EB3-Mexico to bring it to current EB3-ROW-P, PD of 08 October 2005, This way they do not have to worry about 7% utilization of annual cap that is required to maintain status of retrogressed countries going forward for next fiscal year. Other school of thought suggests that EB3-Mexico can also become 'U' for last two months of the quarter. EB3-P will have to move with EB3-ROW, no matter what for rest of the year.

EB2-India & China - EB2 India and China advanced to 08 March 2007 by utilizing at least 10,563 additional unused visa numbers from EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5. It is expected that at this pace dates can reach July 2007 in August visa bulletin. In September bulletin either dates will become current or will move into first quarter of 2008. If available visa are less than 24K-11k(used for this bulletin) = 14K for remaining two months, then DOS can decide to stay put at 01 Aug 07. PWMBs will be enough to consume annual visa numbers for rest of the next fiscal year (not spillover). Chances for latter looks less as DOS would like to build some inventory for themselves to have fair cut-off date projection for next year spillover season. Once again, everyone keep your documents ready. Next two months could be full of roller coaster ride. It all depends if B's would Stanley Cup. (LOL ..just kidding). God Bless!!!

Updated Green Card Calculator & Other Notes

As per recent data released by USCIS on May 26th, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, green card calculator is updated. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card from current date (as per GMT). In addition to other categories it will aslo calculate number for applicants for EW (Others) category. Due to complication in calculation it cannot estimate wait time as of now.

Data beyond July 2007

Data beyond July 2007 is segregated from PERM data with respective to 'Priority Date'. To segregate EB2 and EB3, PWD minimum salary was used as a basis instead of assumption of 50:50. Ratio 50:50 do not holds true for many countries. Please see table below, which outlines PERM distribution for EB2 and EB3 for different countries.

Spillover Estimation - System will recommend spillover that we expect to receive in coming years for each country and category .
EB2-India & China - PERM distribution for different priority date in EB2 - India and China was calculated. This distribution will control how spillover will be distributed among EB2-IC as dates will progress for different Priority Dates. System would try to average the Spillover among EB2-India and China in such a way that number of years required to reach similar PDs are as close as possible. For each fiscal year, system assumes following spillover. In general distribution of EB2-IC PERM Ratio for different PD year is as shown below. In general, waiting time for Indian nationals in EB2 and EB3 category looks terrible. Since density of applicants per month in EB2-India is so high, that in long run EB2-China will not receive majority of spillover (couple hundred or few thousands). Since EB2 will not be cleared for atleast next 5-6 years, spillover expeccted to EB3 category is minimum. EB3-India will get some indirect- spillover each year due to EB3 to EB2 upgrades or porting which will cause queue to clear faster than anticipated. Individuals with PD close to 2004 -2006 will see ample benefit of this every year. Apparently, if EB2-I will stop receiving spillover or receive minimum spillover in coming years, wait time for EB3-India and EB2-India will end up same. If you will note EB3-India has only 102k estimated demand vs. 165k for EB2-India for PD - March 2011. This whole ordeal is very depressing and visa recapture bill is only hope for EB community.

In addition, you can also put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario. Please see assumptions below. Please ensure that you enter "User ENTERED" value exactly as shown in table below.

PWMB - PWMB is taken care of in green card calculator. In general PWMB number for a PD month is added to the current inventory for the successive PD month. For e.g. if PWMB for EB3-ROW with PD Sep -2005 is '50' , this number is added in PD Oct-2005 inventory. This is done because that demand will not be realised until specific PD will become current. Please click here to see post that refers PWMB for EB3 category.

For EB2-India and China, PWMB is added to the following inventory assuming PD in coming visa bulletin will move in increments as stated in table below.

It is assumed that 7% of the total annual EB Visa Numbers (140,000) are allocated to each of the four retrogressed countries while the remaining 72% visa numbers are available to the Rest of the World. Visa numbers allotment for EB4 and EB5 are considered separately.

Please click Here to check Updated Green Card Calculator