Monday, January 23, 2012
EB Category FY 2012 Demand Upto January 2012 & Visa-Use Budget
Posted On Monday, January 23, 2012 by Rav | 22 comments |
As per recently released USCIS Dashboard data on I-485 Receipts, here is the estimation of demand for each category for the month of Novemberr 2011. Please see this article to understand how to read this table. Based on past experience, usually 2x or 3x representation of EB2-IC on trackitt is fair estimation.
Visa Use Budget and Current EB category demand
From the available data, please see total EB category demand for visas upto January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We used the available data also to estimate Visa-use Budget upto January 2012.
Reference
Rollover Demand - See this article
October Demand - See this article
Please note that December and January Demand is calculated from trackitt using factor of 13. This is still an estimation. January 2012 demand is prorated from current data based on 31 days.
Visa use is calculated based on numbers that are used upto today. Please add all the numbers that are circled in red to estimate current visa use.
Visa use upto January 2012 = 6461 + 8000 + 4805 + 8012 + 1131 + 13468 = 41,877
Please note EB1 use looks high for this quarter only because of high rollover from previous year. If current trend continues then we can expect some more spillover from EB1. This may be the reason that Mr O. is quoting less demand for EB1. We would need to see if trackitt trend will shift due to more new EB1 filings as year progresses.. EB2-ROW demand does not make sense based on trackitt data. We will like to see more PERM data for Q1 FY 2012 to make this conclusion. Please note that we need more 60K demand from today to use EB annual quota completely. This is based on assumption that EB4 and EB5 may not yield much spillover. Low EB2-ROW consumption could be accounted to the delays in PERM processing. This may pick up with time.
If any of the trends for EB1 and EB2-ROW is true and will continue like this for few more months, retrogression is not possible until summer. Even if retrogression will happen in such case, I doubt it will go anywhere in late 2008 or may even stall at PD 2009. This looks too good to be true but for now this scenario cannot be discarded. Surprising data that unfolded due to trackitt trend is an eye-opener. Lets watch inventory and I-485 filing receipts for few more months. So far things looks good for EB2-IC (that means less retrogression).
Monday, January 9, 2012
Visa Bulletin - February 2012
Posted On Monday, January 09, 2012 by Rav | 67 comments |
February 2012 Visa Bulletin for the FY 2012 was released yesterday. February visa bulletin brought 12 months remarkable movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, thus moving it to the most favorable cut-off dates ever. EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected by 2 weeks and 6 weeks. All other categories are current. Family Based category saw some movement.
Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
- EB-1 remains current across the board.
- EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines. EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by twelve (12) months to January 1, 2010.
- EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to February 22, 2006, EB-3 China moves forward by six (6) weeks to December 1, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by only one (1) week to August 15, 2002.
- The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by three (3) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to February 22, 2006. It also moves forward by two (2) weeks for India to August 15, 2002.
Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:- FB-1 moves forward (again, for fifth consecutive month). FB-1 ROW, China and India all move forward by nine (9) weeks to December 22, 2004. FB-1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 22, 1993 and FB-1 Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to May 22, 1997.
- FB-2A moves forward by six (6) weeks to June 8, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB-2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to May 8, 2009.
- FB-2B ROW, China and India move forward by five (5) weeks to October 15, 2003. FB-2B Mexico remains unchanged at December 1, 1992. FB-2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to November 1, 2001.
VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
Employment First: Current
Employment Second:
China
and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
(USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for
adjustment of status in recent months has been
extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward
movement
of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate
demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level
of new
filings or USCIS processing increases
significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the
cut-off. Readers
are once again advised that an eventual need to
retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.
Employment Third:
Worldwide: up to one month
China: up to one month
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: up to one month
Philippines: up to one month
Employment Fourth: Current
Employment Fifth: Current
Please be advised that the above ranges are only estimates for what could happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand which can occur at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.
FB Categories
Worldwide dates:
F1: three to five weeks
F2A: one to two months
F2B: three to four weeks
F3: one to three weeks
F4: up to one month
EB2-India & China Movement
Few things that can inferred from above statement is that filing upto December Visa Bulletin from October 2011 are very low than what DOS wants as an inventory for FY 2012. We initially expected cases upto December bulletin cut-off date to be around 16000 but current trackitt trend is pointing towards 9412 applications. (2200 I-485 filings from October Receipt Data and 166 trackitt applications gives factor of 13. From October-December 2011, trackitt has 724 pending cases, which converts into 724*13 = 9412 cases). This is too early to suggest that filings are low but we will continue to monitor I-485 Receipt data and trackitt trend for next few days.
DOS bulletin clearly mentions that once the level
of new
filings or USCIS processing increases
significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the
cut-off. So we can be rest assured that atleast for the next visa bulletin there will be no retrogression. Worst case it will stall. Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly. Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also feels movement will continue until April 2012.
As per Mr. Oppenheim, "Readers
are once again advised that an eventual need to
retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility." That eventual need will be seen around May 2012 visa bulletin i.e. in April. 2012 Dates will retrogress at some point but level of retrogression is difficult to determine without inventory data. Retrogression beyond December 2007 is not plausible. If demand continue to stay less, then June September 2008 could be considered as a high mark point for retrogression but for now lets stick to March-June 2008 as cut-off dates for FY 2012 until we see some more inventory numbers.
It was not clear from above analysis how annual visa use scenario looks like if we consider that trackitt trend from October 2011-December 2011 is resemblance of real demand. Please see numbers below
It was not clear from above analysis how annual visa use scenario looks like if we consider that trackitt trend from October 2011-December 2011 is resemblance of real demand. Please see numbers below
EB2-IC rough visa use estimation for FY 2012 that can be accounted upto 31st December 2011 is
Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 22,219
Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 20,897
*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog pre July 2007, after movements for October - November 2011 VB
EB3-ROW-M-P Movement
EB3-ROW-M-P
movement based on demand data is 2350 visa numbers worth month to month. We need 32,400 visa numbers from today to cross PD to January 2007. At current rate, it will take 13 months to cross January 2007, which means for FY 2012, PD cut -off date may only reach around 22nd July 2006.
EB3-India & China Movement
EB3-India is currently moving as expected. There is some eventual EB3 to EB2 porting going on at rate of 250 cases per month based on demand data. If this will continue then we can again see some rapid movement for EB3-I in later part of the year, especially in August-September 2012. EB3-China is moving very well with at least 4-6 weeks movement each month. We expect this movement to continue for rest of the year.Saturday, December 31, 2011
EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report
Posted On Saturday, December 31, 2011 by Rav | 32 comments |
DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document (thank you to our reader who pointed to this release) - http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf.
Some of the important relevant information can be found on Page 6 of the document which has plots for I-140 EB1 and EB-2 adjudications, including receipts and approvals for the Texas (TSC) and Nebraska (NSC) Service Centers. Report suggests that USCIS has experienced a slight downturn in EB-1 and EB-2 filings over the past five years for both EB-1 and EB-2 (note report does not include National Interest Waiver petitions), with approval and denial rates remaining consistent.
Key point to note here are -
EB2-India & China I-140 Demand based on released data
First of all we started after taking into account the PERMs that were approved for the FY 2008, FY 2009 and FY 2010.
We know from past analysis that usual break down of PERMs are 65%-35% for EB2-EB3 for India and China, and 50% for EB2-ROW-M-P. Based on this assumption and 100% approval rate, total I-140 demand for PERMs filed each fiscal year as follow.
If we now compare this data with recently released DHS document -http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-recommendation_extraordinary_ability_petitions.pdf. ; then I-140 Receipt numbers come very close to that suggested in above table. Approvals per released DHS document is as follow:
Reason for difference in two numbers can be accounted based on
This data comes from these articles
a) FY 2011 Q1-Q2 PERM data
b) FY 2011 Q3 PERM Approvals
c) FY 2011 Q4 PERM Approvals
EB2-India & China demand based on Priority Date
To calculate this for now we can neglect the difference that we see in DHS I-140 Receipts data (Table II) and I-140 demand data from PERM approvals (Table III), then we can roughly estimate total EB2-IC I-140 demand for each fiscal year just by using Table II. In order to capture FY 2011 approvals for old priority dates, we will add EB2-IC demand for each fiscal year to respective approvals in FY 2011. Based on above calculations, estimate for EB2-IC I-140 demand is (in red)
Some key points to note
To above numbers you can add 8000 visa numbers that was approved for this fiscal year. Also add demand from August 2007-September 2007 plus 4000-5000 PWMBs overall and then based on your estimation of spillover calculate cut-off date on retrogression.
My take will be the option Multiple PERM factor of 75%.
EB2-IC demand , August-September 2007 from PERM data = 4,000
All PWMBs = 4,500
EB2-IC Approvals for backlogged cases = 8,000
Demand until Sep 2008 = 25,233
__________________________________________________________
Cut-off Dates for this year can hover around March-June 2008 after retrogression for the best scenario.
Some of the important relevant information can be found on Page 6 of the document which has plots for I-140 EB1 and EB-2 adjudications, including receipts and approvals for the Texas (TSC) and Nebraska (NSC) Service Centers. Report suggests that USCIS has experienced a slight downturn in EB-1 and EB-2 filings over the past five years for both EB-1 and EB-2 (note report does not include National Interest Waiver petitions), with approval and denial rates remaining consistent.
Key point to note here are -
- EB1-A and EB1-B has high rate of denial rate, around 40% to 60% respectively.
- EB2 I-140 approval rate is close to 100%
- Respective I-140 filings for each fiscal year 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011.
- EB1 majority demand comes from EB1-C and not from EB1-A and EB1-B. Those filings do not look enormous.
Table I |
We know from past analysis that usual break down of PERMs are 65%-35% for EB2-EB3 for India and China, and 50% for EB2-ROW-M-P. Based on this assumption and 100% approval rate, total I-140 demand for PERMs filed each fiscal year as follow.
Table II |
Table III |
- First of all data is based on PERM approvals and some of demand from past fiscal year will roll-over into current fiscal year I-140 demand due to time lag between approval of PERM and filing of I-140s
- Our assumption of 65% and 50% is flat and there may be a difference month to month.
- Please note NIW applicants do not have to file PERM and hence that difference in negated here.
This data comes from these articles
a) FY 2011 Q1-Q2 PERM data
b) FY 2011 Q3 PERM Approvals
c) FY 2011 Q4 PERM Approvals
Table IV |
Please note that from above table it is difficult to deduce EB2 I-140 Receipts of 39000 reported in DHS document. Our estimation only shows 21,034 receipts. This is still a mystery to us.
EB2-India & China demand based on Priority Date
To calculate this for now we can neglect the difference that we see in DHS I-140 Receipts data (Table II) and I-140 demand data from PERM approvals (Table III), then we can roughly estimate total EB2-IC I-140 demand for each fiscal year just by using Table II. In order to capture FY 2011 approvals for old priority dates, we will add EB2-IC demand for each fiscal year to respective approvals in FY 2011. Based on above calculations, estimate for EB2-IC I-140 demand is (in red)
Table V |
Some key points to note
- I-140 Receipt demand will always lag PERM Approval times.
- Difference between 29000 - 27588 = 1412 from Table II and Table III can account for some demand before October 2007.
- It is assumed that most of the cases for certain priority date is approved in same fiscal year, so total demand upto end of FY 2010 will be same but real numbers for each PD may be off depending upon PERM approval time within that fiscal year.
- These calculations do not consider any abandon cases due to individuals leaving country, getting lay-offed or re-filing due to long audit processing time, multiple PERM factors or double filings within a family. You can assume anything from 65%-85% for this as a multiple PERM factor.
- This data does not consider any EB3-EB2 portings.
- You can multiply this demand by 2.0 to 2.25 based on dependent factor to get estimate of I-485 demand.
To above numbers you can add 8000 visa numbers that was approved for this fiscal year. Also add demand from August 2007-September 2007 plus 4000-5000 PWMBs overall and then based on your estimation of spillover calculate cut-off date on retrogression.
My take will be the option Multiple PERM factor of 75%.
EB2-IC demand , August-September 2007 from PERM data = 4,000
All PWMBs = 4,500
EB2-IC Approvals for backlogged cases = 8,000
Demand until Sep 2008 = 25,233
__________________________________________________________
Total I-485 Demand upto September 2008 = 41,733
Spillover + annual limit expected at most can be around 28,000
Cut-off Dates for this year can hover around March-June 2008 after retrogression for the best scenario.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
PERM Approvals : Q4 FY 2011
Posted On Thursday, December 29, 2011 by Rav | 6 comments |
Here is a break down of PERM data (certified and certified_expired only) that was processed each month for FY 2011 Q4. Data has been broken down among different PDs that were approved per month in Q4 FY 2011. Total 16,937 PERMs were approved in Q4- FY 2011. In addition to this, see PERM database based on PD that is updated until FY 2011.
In addition, please see distribution of PERM approvals segregated based on country of chargeability and category. Most of the PERMs filed in FY 2011- Q4 belonged to India and ROW. It is becoming apparent that with passing time, most of the individuals are filing their cases in EB2 category.
In addition, please see distribution of PERM approvals segregated based on country of chargeability and category. Most of the PERMs filed in FY 2011- Q4 belonged to India and ROW. It is becoming apparent that with passing time, most of the individuals are filing their cases in EB2 category.
Most
importantly it should be noted that the EB2-ROW-M-P demand is
progressing towards around 4000 PERMs per quarter, which if continued
through out the year may convert into 4000*2*4 Qtr = 32000 I-485 applications for the fiscal year. This means spillover expected from EB2-ROW-M-P at this rate is 3000-7000 depending upon I-485 denial rate of 0%-15%.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific for USCIS Adjudicators
Posted On Thursday, December 22, 2011 by Rav | 14 comments |
Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or
(CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.
Burden of Proof and Standard of Proof
The burden is on the petitioner to establish that he or she is eligible for the benefit sought. This means that if an alien
seeking a benefit has not shown eligibility, the application should be
denied. The government is not called upon to make any showing of
ineligibility until the alien has first shown that he is eligible. You
may contrast this in your mind with a criminal case or with a removal
hearing in which the government must first prove its case.
Evidential Standards
Because the strict rules of evidence used in judicial proceedings
do not apply in administrative proceedings, a wide range of oral or
documentary evidence may be used in a visa petition proceeding or other
immigration benefit application proceeding. A copy of a public record
(birth certificate, marriage or divorce certificates, adoption decrees,
and similar documents) is admissible if the person having custody over
the original records has certified the copy. For example, a copy of a
divorce decree is admissible if the clerk of the court has certified the copy. A
regulation, provides that a certified copy of a foreign public record
(other than a Canadian record) should also be authenticated by a U.S.
Foreign Service officer or, if the country is a party to the Hague
Convention on abolition of legalization requirements for foreign public
records, by a higher-level official of the foreign country.
Best Evidence Rule
In adjudicating a petition or application for a benefit, immigration officer will often deal with evidence and facts which are of a documentary nature, such as marriage dates, dates of birth, death, divorce, criminal records, school records, etc. This often brings into play what is known as the "best evidence rule.” While the best evidence rule is not strictly applicable in an administrative proceeding, IOs should adhere to it as closely as they can. The rule states that where the contents of a document are at issue in a case, the document itself must be introduced rather than secondary evidence as to its content.
Primary and Secondary Evidence
Closely related to the best evidence rule is the concept of
primary and secondary evidence. Primary evidence is evidence which on
its face proves a fact. For example, the divorce certificate is primary
evidence of a divorce. Secondary evidence is evidence which makes it
more likely that the fact sought to be proven by the primary evidence is
true, but cannot do so on its own face, without any external reference.
In the above example, church records showing that an individual was
divorced at a certain time would be secondary evidence of the divorce.
Adjudicators will often
encounter situations in which primary evidence is unavailable. This
gives rise to a presumption of ineligibility
, which is the applicant or petitioner’s burden to overcome.
A petitioner or applicant cannot simply assert that the primary
evidence does not exist. The absence of a primary record, instead, must
be proven either:
- By a written statement from the appropriate issuing authority attesting to the fact that no record exists or can be located, or that the record sought was part of some segment of records which were lost or destroyed; or
- By evidence (such as an affidavit) "that repeated good faith attempts were made to obtain the required document or record."
To check country-specific information on availability of
various foreign documents see below drop-down menu that is used by Immigration Officers. If this Appendix shows that a particular
record is generally not available in a particular country, USCIS may
accept secondary evidence without requiring the written statement from
the issuing authority.
General List of Commonly Required Documents
Birth Certificates
You (and any family members immigrating with you to the United States) must obtain an original birth certificate issued by the official custodian of birth records in your country of birth, showing your date of birth, place of birth, and parentage.The certificate must contain the:
- Your date of birth
- Your place of birth
- Names of both parents
- Indication by the appropriate authority that it is an extract from the official records
If your birth record is not obtainable for any reason, a certified statement must be obtained from the appropriate government authority explaining why your birth record is unavailable. You must also submit secondary evidence such as:
- A baptismal certificate that contains the date and place of birth, as well as both parents names (providing the baptism took place shortly after birth)
- An adoption decree for an adopted child
- An affidavit from a close relative, preferably your mother, stating the date and place of birth, both parents names, and your mother’s maiden name.
SAMPLE AFFIDAVIT
AFFIDAVIT BY Mr. xxxxxx (FATHER NAME) & Mrs.xxxxxxx (MOTHER NAME)
Re: [YOUR FULL NAME]
I, Mr. [FATHER FULL NAME] & Mrs. [MOTHER FULL NAME], here by depose and say:
1. Our full and complete address is xxxxxxxxxxx
2. That I, FATHER'S FULL NAME Age XXX, was born on MM/DD/YYY in the town/city of xxxxxxxx
3. That I, MOTHER'S FULL NAME Age XXX, was born on MM/DD?/YYY in the town/city of xxxxxxxx
4. We got married on MM/DDYYY in the city of XXXXXX, COUNTRY.
5. We, FATHER'S & MOTHER'S FULL NAME are parents of the following children:
a. YOUR FULL NAME born on MM/DD/YY; andb. YOUR SIBLINGS NAME born on MM/DD/YYYY
6. [YOUR FULL NAME] was born in CITY, STATE, COUNTRY
7. This affidavit
is being submitted because official full name of [YOUR FULL NAME] was
not [mentioned] OR [registered] OR [OTHER REASON] in the birth certificate at the time of birth. [His/Her] Full Name
is [YOUR FULL NAME] /OR/ [YOUR FULL NAME] birth was not registered because [reason].
I declare under penalty of perjury, that the foregoing is a true and correct statement.
_________________________
FATHER NAME and signature
FATHER NAME and signature
_________________________
MOTHER NAME and signature
MOTHER NAME and signature
More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.
Marriage Certificates
Who needs to submit marriage certificates?If you are married, you must obtain an original marriage certificate, or a certified copy, bearing the appropriate seal or stamp of the issuing authority.
Note: Marriage certificates from certain countries are unavailable. More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.
If you were convicted of a crime, you must obtain a certified copy of each court record and prison record, regardless of the fact that you may have subsequently been granted amnesty, a pardon or other act of clemency.
Court records should include:
- Complete information about the circumstances of the crime
- The disposition of the case, including sentence, fines or other penalties imposed
Who needs to submit marriage termination documentation?
If you were previously married, you must obtain evidence of the termination of EACH prior marriage. Evidence must be in the form of original documents issued by an official authority, or certified copies bearing the appropriate seal or stamp of the issuing authority, such as:
- FINAL divorce decree
- Death certificate
- Annulment papers
Deportation Documentation
Who needs to submit deportation documents?If you have been previously deported or removed from the United States at government expense, you must obtain Form I-212, Permission to Reapply After Deportation, from the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service, or from a U.S. Embassy or Consulate, and follow the instructions on that form.
Military Records
If you served in the military forces of any country, you must obtain a copy of your military record.
Note: Military records from certain countries are unavailable.
More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.
Who needs to submit petitioner documents?
If you are applying for an IR5 (Parent of a U.S. Citizen) visa, you are required to provide:
- Original or certified copy of your Petitioner’s birth certificate
- Original or certified copy of your Petitioner’s marriage certificate from the Petitioner’s current and all previous marriages.
- Original or certified copy of your Petitioners birth certificate.
Who needs to submit a photocopy of their passport?
The applicant and each family member accompanying the applicant must submit a photocopy of the biographic data page from their respective valid passport.
More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.
Photographs
You must submit two identical color photographs. Review Photograph Requirements for size specifications and more information.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
October 2011 EB Demand from I-485 Receipt Data
Posted On Wednesday, December 21, 2011 by Rav | 16 comments |
As per recently released USCIS Dashboard data on I-485 Receipts, here is the estimation of demand for each category for the month of October 2011. Please see this article to understand how to read this table. Based on past experience, usually 2x or 3x representation of EB2-IC on trackitt is fair estimation.
EB2-IC rough demand estimation that can be accounted until October 2011 is
Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 2679 (PWMB) from 15 April 07 - 15 July 2007 = 15,486
Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 + 2200 (PWMB) from 15 April 07 - 15 July 2007 = 13,685
*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog, after movements for October - November 2011 VB
Monday, December 19, 2011
EB2-IC Visa Bulletin Movements FY 2012 - Is this how Mr. Oppenheim thinks?
Posted On Monday, December 19, 2011 by Rav | 30 comments |
We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? Or if we can formulate a mathematical expression that outlines his approach to move dates. That is when we started digging into this.
Edited - December 20, 2011
We started looking at the movement that Mr. Oppenheim did for Family-Based Category last year in FY 2010 and FY 2011 to see how he moved the dates and then retrogressed them once he had enough demand. Some key difference that should be noted between two categories are a) annual visas for FB category vs EB category is 260K vs. 140K. When one will reduce these numbers per category, ratio between two visa numbers would be quite similar b) For FB category demand could be easily generated in couple months as long as NVC have enough cases documentarily qualified (majority of demand in FB category comes from overseas consular posts) vs. EB category which rely mostly on USCIS to generate demand. C) Mr. Oppenheim started doing such movement for FB category in June 2010 which was still recalibrating until last fiscal year.
Mr. Oppenheim started doing similar movement of EB2-IC from October 2011. If we will assume that Mr. Oppenheim have similar thought process that he had while determining cut-off dates for FB category, then we should have seen movements as suggested in the column “EB2-IC”. But this was the not the case. Factors a) to c) could be the reason for this. As two categories have different demand and different annual visa numbers, movement could not be just purely based on similar difference. We took first two movements that we saw in the last visa bulletin to fit the best correlation to the data, and equation we received was
Recalibrated EB2-IC Movement
It should be noted that there is a correction in the equation. As forward movement will be less based on factor a) to c), even retrogression should be less than anticipated compared to FB category.
Forward Movement
EB2-IC Date:Current Bulletin = EB2-IC Date:Last Bulletin + (((F2A Movement: Current Bulletin - F2A Movement:Last Bulletin)*140000/260000) – 60 days)
Retrogression
EB2-IC Date:Current Bulletin = EB2-IC Date:Last Bulletin + (((F2A Movement: Current Bulletin - F2A Movement:Last Bulletin)*140000/260000) +60 days)
This equation closely satisfied movement that we saw for December 2011 and January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We used this data to correlate Mr. Oppenheim thought process in order to extrapolate movement for next few bulletins; as long as he will continue to have same thought process for rest of the year.
Fallacy to above method, it does not take into account any EB demand, PERM numbers and assumes similar correlation will exist for rest of the year. Personally, I would request everyone to take this lightly and do not put lot of eggs into this basket. The correlation when outputted was very interesting hence we thought of sharing it with our readers, especially when there is no logic behind current movement (as far as I can tell). It can give better perspective to this process than just going by a gut feeling.
If this will make sense, and will start panning out in next few bulletin then cut-off dates estimated by equation does not make sense from June 2012 – November 2012, I would say in case spillover is enough, dates may stick around December 2008 until June 2012 and then retrogress to September 2007 in August-September 2012 for some time. By this time most of the folks should have received green card from the filings in October-December 2011. Successively dates will move back to June 2008 in October 2013 or beyond. In all, I would not care about movement shown in later half of the table.
Note : Results here are independent of demand and were shared because they looked interesting. By no means this suggests that this is what we may see in next visa bulletins.
Edited - December 20, 2011
We started looking at the movement that Mr. Oppenheim did for Family-Based Category last year in FY 2010 and FY 2011 to see how he moved the dates and then retrogressed them once he had enough demand. Some key difference that should be noted between two categories are a) annual visas for FB category vs EB category is 260K vs. 140K. When one will reduce these numbers per category, ratio between two visa numbers would be quite similar b) For FB category demand could be easily generated in couple months as long as NVC have enough cases documentarily qualified (majority of demand in FB category comes from overseas consular posts) vs. EB category which rely mostly on USCIS to generate demand. C) Mr. Oppenheim started doing such movement for FB category in June 2010 which was still recalibrating until last fiscal year.
Mr. Oppenheim started doing similar movement of EB2-IC from October 2011. If we will assume that Mr. Oppenheim have similar thought process that he had while determining cut-off dates for FB category, then we should have seen movements as suggested in the column “EB2-IC”. But this was the not the case. Factors a) to c) could be the reason for this. As two categories have different demand and different annual visa numbers, movement could not be just purely based on similar difference. We took first two movements that we saw in the last visa bulletin to fit the best correlation to the data, and equation we received was
Recalibrated EB2-IC Movement
It should be noted that there is a correction in the equation. As forward movement will be less based on factor a) to c), even retrogression should be less than anticipated compared to FB category.
Forward Movement
EB2-IC Date:Current Bulletin = EB2-IC Date:Last Bulletin + (((F2A Movement: Current Bulletin - F2A Movement:Last Bulletin)*140000/260000) – 60 days)
Retrogression
EB2-IC Date:Current Bulletin = EB2-IC Date:Last Bulletin + (((F2A Movement: Current Bulletin - F2A Movement:Last Bulletin)*140000/260000) +60 days)
This equation closely satisfied movement that we saw for December 2011 and January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We used this data to correlate Mr. Oppenheim thought process in order to extrapolate movement for next few bulletins; as long as he will continue to have same thought process for rest of the year.
Fallacy to above method, it does not take into account any EB demand, PERM numbers and assumes similar correlation will exist for rest of the year. Personally, I would request everyone to take this lightly and do not put lot of eggs into this basket. The correlation when outputted was very interesting hence we thought of sharing it with our readers, especially when there is no logic behind current movement (as far as I can tell). It can give better perspective to this process than just going by a gut feeling.
If this will make sense, and will start panning out in next few bulletin then cut-off dates estimated by equation does not make sense from June 2012 – November 2012, I would say in case spillover is enough, dates may stick around December 2008 until June 2012 and then retrogress to September 2007 in August-September 2012 for some time. By this time most of the folks should have received green card from the filings in October-December 2011. Successively dates will move back to June 2008 in October 2013 or beyond. In all, I would not care about movement shown in later half of the table.
Note : Results here are independent of demand and were shared because they looked interesting. By no means this suggests that this is what we may see in next visa bulletins.