Thursday, April 03, 2025


Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Visa Bulletin - June 2011

Posted On Saturday, May 14, 2011 by Rav 15 comments

June 2011 Visa Bulletin was released on 12th May 2011. Little movement for Family-Based categories. For Employment-Based category, EB-3 overall saw some movement in cut-off dates for each country. EB2 is current for all other countries except India and China. EB-2 China moves...


Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Demand Data for June 2011 Visa Bulletin & Updated Predictions

Posted On Tuesday, May 10, 2011 by Rav 22 comments

Demand data that will be used for June Visa Bulletin has been released. Please see below the cumulative demand reduction from May 2011 to June 2011. Some of these reductions were as predicted and others were less due to hidden demand (usually newly added cases from CP offices and...


Wednesday, May 4, 2011

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Posted On Wednesday, May 04, 2011 by Rav 6 comments

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485...


Unemployment Compensation or Benefits on EAD? - Read this

Posted On Wednesday, May 04, 2011 by Rav 1 comments

If you ever wondered that getting Unemployment benefits on EAD or Green Card will make you ineligible for admission to US, Please read this. In general, lawful permanent residents who currently possess a "green card" cannot be denied U.S. citizenship for lawfully receiving any public...


Tuesday, May 3, 2011

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count - 29 April 2011

Posted On Tuesday, May 03, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 9,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 6,600 visas as of 29th April 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 25% of the quota. We should remember that TARP funded...


Sunday, May 1, 2011

Predictions for EB2-IC for FY 2011 - Updated 1st May 2011

Posted On Sunday, May 01, 2011 by Rav 13 comments

We have updated predictions for EB2-FY 2011 for Employment Based category based on new EB2-ROW Demand, PWMB data gathered from PERM data and our EB2-EB3 porting calculations. This is it from us until August visa bulletin unless we will get some updates from Mr. Charlie Oppenheim...


Saturday, April 30, 2011

EB2 - ROW-Mexico-Philippines Visa Demand FY 2011 - Based on PERM Data

Posted On Saturday, April 30, 2011 by Rav 14 comments

We have analyzed the PERM data for FY 2011 Q1 and Q2, and FY 2010 Q4 (Aug-Sep) for EB2-ROW-M-P to ballpark current visa demand for this category. Goal behind this was to see if there is a possibility that some spillover from EB1 would be consumed by EB2-ROW before it will come to...


Monthly PERM Processed Data for First Half of FY 2011

Posted On Saturday, April 30, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

Here is a break down of PERM data (certified and certified_expired only) that was processed each month for FY 2011 Q1 and Q2. Data has been broken down among different PDs per monthwise. You would see as year progressed through current fiscal year, most of the PERMs processed were...


Friday, April 29, 2011

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count - As of 22 April 2011

Posted On Friday, April 29, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 8,000 visas and Masters quota has utilized 5,900 visas as of 22th April 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized its 25% of the quota. We should remember that TARP funded companies...


Thursday, April 28, 2011

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007 - Analysis of EB- India and China

Posted On Thursday, April 28, 2011 by Rav 11 comments

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier...


Tuesday, April 26, 2011

PERM Processing Time as of 25 April 2011

Posted On Tuesday, April 26, 2011 by Rav 6 comments

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. There is great reduction in audit cases. Compared to last month audit case processing time has moved from March 2009 to December 2009. Huge reduction in inventory. DOL has started processing cases from March 2011. We are seeing...


Saturday, April 23, 2011

Sample I-140 Experience Letter

Posted On Saturday, April 23, 2011 by Rav 3 comments

Common question that is asked during I-140 filing is about sample experience letter format. Please find below an sample of a such experience letter. USCIS prefers that an individual should provide an experience letter on a company's letter head. Experience should be provided preferably...


Interfiling I-485 after Sucessfully Porting from EB3 to EB2

Posted On Saturday, April 23, 2011 by Rav 17 comments

This post explains the current procedure for interfiling I-485 once you have successfully ported your Priority Date from previously approved I-140 and your old I-485 is still pending with USCIS. Procedure to Transfer Pending I-1485 From Current Approved Underlying I-140 Petition...


Monday, April 18, 2011

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count - 15th April 2011

Posted On Monday, April 18, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 7,100 visas and Masters quota has utilized 5,100 visas as of 15th April 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized its 25% of the quota. We should remember that TARP funded companies...


Sunday, April 17, 2011

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

Posted On Sunday, April 17, 2011 by Rav 17 comments

gcw07 said... "Excellent analysis done by you. I have become a big fan of your blogs. All I understand that DoS is afraid of heavy porting EB3 India to EB2 India. Do you have any estimation for EB3 India to EB2 India porting? I have seen your dashboard and how to apply the dashboard...


Saturday, April 16, 2011

June 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Posted On Saturday, April 16, 2011 by Rav 171 comments

Here is the prediction for June 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.Updated 10 May 2010 - (Check this for Reason of Update)PredictionsEB3- China could advance...


Saturday, April 9, 2011

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count - 7th April 2011

Posted On Saturday, April 09, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 5,900 visas and under Masters quota has utilized 4,500 visas as of 7th April 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized its 25% of the quota. We should remember that TARP funded companies...


Visa Bulletin - May 2011

Posted On Saturday, April 09, 2011 by Rav 9 comments

May 2011 Visa Bulletin was released today. Little movement for Family-Based categories. For Employment-Based category, EB-3 overall saw some movement in cut-off dates for each country. EB2 is current for all other countries except India and China. EB2-India finally moved after...


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