Visa Bulletin - December 2011

December 2011 Visa Bulletin  for the FY 2012 was released today. December visa bulletin brought 4.5 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories., thus moving it to the most favorable cur-off dates  ever.  EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected. All other categories are current as expected. Family Based category  saw some movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines.   EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by four and a half (4.5) months to March 15, 2008.
• EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to January 15, 2006, EB-3 China  moves forward by two (2) weeks to September 8, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to August 1, 2002.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by one and a half (1.5) months for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to January 1, 2006.  It also moves forward by five  (5) weeks for India to July 22, 2002.

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 moves forward (again, for third consecutive month).  FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to September 1, 2004.   FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 8, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by three (3) weeks to March 1, 1997.
• FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to March 22, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by two (2) months to February 8, 2009.
• FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to August 15, 2003.  FB2B Mexico remains unchanged at November 22, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to August 15, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

 

FB Categories
No Notes

EB Categories

No Notes

Demand Data Comparison for December & November 2011 Visa Bulletin Movement

EB3-ROW-M-P Future Movement 

EB3-ROW-M-P moved to cut-off date of 15 January 2006 as expected based on current demand and available visas used on monthly basis. I do not want to sound like a broken record, but there is always some hidden demand and other regularly old PD cases  that continuously become documentarily qualified, thus receiving visas from the monthly allocation. Some of these cases are old  and are captured in I-485 pending inventory. On average 1500-1600 demand is generally reduced on a monthly basis from the available inventory. With the released I-485 pending inventory and recently released demand data, it is becoming more and more obvious that cut-off dates for FY 2012 for this category may not cross 01 August 2006. We will keep an eye on the demand data but anything more than this is less plausible so far.

 

EB3-India & China Future Movement 

EB3-India will continue to move 1 week in each visa bulletin. There could be some substantial movement later in the year but so far this will be the trend. EB3-China is difficult to predict due to high consular processing demand but we expect it to move and cross into PD 2005 for this fiscal year.

EB2-India & China Movement 

Dates for EB2-IC has crossed into cut-off date of March 2008. It is impressive to see that Mr. Oppenheim is taking different approach this year and we should applaud him for his efforts. Since Mr. Oppenheim is taking different course for FY 2012, we believe that we should also keep our dogmatic approach to number crunching away for sometime until it make sense to do so. We should try to speculate what can happen in next few bulletins and successive months from their until summer 2012. We may be 'out to lunch' with this approach but can very well veer back to number crunching if this does not make sense in next few bulletins. 

We believe retrogression is imminent in summer 2012; only exception will be HR 3012  if it will become a law by that time. We know that current movement upto March 2008 from 15 April 2007(Sep VB date) would easily bring demand that could end up using around 28K-30K visas from 140,000 available EB category visas. These are definitely in par with what we would usually see year-to-year with EB2-IC spillover + 5600 annual limits.

Question is so what can we expect from Mr. Oppenheim hereon? Firstly, we can say he has no clue that what real demand is due to such movement and lets presume he might not get hold off this until next two months ( that too only if he decides to persuade USCIS to tell him the numbers based on receipts issued).In reality, he may have to wait for real count on demand until April-May 2012 when such cases will start to become documentarily qualified and USCIS will start requesting for visa numbers. 

That said, Mr. Oppenheim may not still be done with intaking more applications for this fiscal year. First, based on past year trend on visa use, monthly demand and estimations, EB2-IC had always moved around 11 months each year. By moving dates upto March 2008, he had just covered those bases. But still he does not know what would happen with HR 3012, whether it will pass with effective date of 01 September 2011. We know from our estimation on this bill, that cut-off dates until PD June 2008 would easily be current if this bill is passed. With approximation on fall-outs due to unforeseen reason, we can expect PD July-August 2008 to be current. If Mr. Oppenheim will stop such movement from next visa bulletin, he may miss that window on keeping cases ready for adjudication in case HR 3012 will become a law as he mentioned in previous bulletin that it can take 4-6 months to get these cases adjudicated. As I mentioned ,this is a speculation and I may  be out to lunch but we believe in coming bulletin(s), EB2-IC dates may move all the way from June 2008-August 2008.  Once, DOS will have enough applications in hand, it will be pretty straight forward for DOS to retrogress EB2-IC or EB2-ROW in summer 2012, whatever is appropriate based on fate of the bill.

Now who can expect Green Card for FY 2012? and how will dates retrogress? One thing  to keep in mind with USCIS is that they will approve cases randomly usually based on month of filings, regardless of Priority Date. Now since most of the July 2007 backlog is cleared, I believe in 4 to 6 months when such cases will start becoming documentarily qualified, we will start to see approvals. Usually in such case, application filed at NSC will have upper hand compared to TSC filings due to vast difference in processing times. Generally during these months of the year, TSC will only approve 6000-8000 cases and NSC will approve around 10,000 cases consistently. So please do not be surprised if NSC case that become current in December bulletin will see approval before November bulletin cases. This is very common with USCIS. Approvals will be random. File your cases as perfect as possible so that you do not receive RFEs. In general, FY 2012 for EB2-IC will be exceptional with respect to approvals, with dates all over from August 2007 PD to March 2008 PD getting randomly approved. Once DOS will feel that enough visa numbers are used for EB2-IC based on EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, at that time dates may retrogress upto PD 01 Sep 07- 01 Nov 07. This is when we will start to see some huge numbers in demand data and we can go back to our number crunching and predictions based on calculations. For some time we believe VB movement and approvals at USCIS will be random.

 

H.R. 3012 - Estimation of EB category Cut-Off Date movement if it becomes a law

The Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, H.R. 3012, was introduced by Representative Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) on September 22, 2011 and was approved by judiciary committee for consideration in the house. This bill still has long way to go but as few readers requested us to analyze the impact of this law on current cut-off date movements for EB category, we are providing some rough estimation in this article.

Summary of the Bill

The bill aims to eliminate per-country visa limits, which are currently causing severe backlogs in green card. As of right now, the Immigration and Nationality Act allows for only 140,000 employment-based visas to be allocated each year.  At present, the percentage of visas that can be allocated to any one country is capped  at  7% percent of all of the employment-based visas available.

Under the Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, the per-country limit on employment-based visas would be eliminated by 2015 after a 3 year phase-in period (FY 2012, FY 2013 and FY 2014).  During the 3 year transition, the vast majority of Employment Based visas would be allocated on first-in-first out basis in order to eliminate the current backlogs.

As pointed by one of our reader, an amendment presented by Rep Lofgren to this bill was approved by the committee. As per the amendment, final rules as followed will  beapplied to EB2 and EB3 category only. No change in rule is expected for EB1, EB4 and EB5.

In FY 2012, backlogged pending cases irrespective of country with earlier priority date would receive unreserved visas - 85% of the visa allocation within a category with respect to . In FY 2013 and FY 2014  they would receive 90% of the visa allocations within a category. There is a limit of 25% for reserved visas and 85 % for unreserved visas that could be made available for a single country under this bill. Reserved visas will be only available until FY 2014 (and in general will be used by ROW-M-P based on current backlog). After FY 2014, all visas (there will be no reserved or unreserved visas) within a category will be used strictly for backlog reduction solely based on first-in-first out (FIFO) regardless of country of birth. Please note that there is no change in spillover rules, unused visas will be allocated regardless of country  strictly based on priority date from one category to other category during later quarter in a fiscal year.

Regardless of these updates estimation do not change, as at no point any country for first three phase in period will use more than 85% of the limit.

Estimation of cut-off dates movement each year if HR 3012 becomes a law

We have summarized the estimation of cut-off date movements for EB category if HR 3012 will become a law effective 30 September 2011. In general, EB2 category will be backlogged for 3-4 years whereas EB3 category will be backlogged for 8-9 years. During estimation of such cut-off dates, it was assumed that EB2 category will not receive more than 15000 spillovers or unused visa. 15000 seems like far optimized estimation after considering that with this new bill, EB2 backlogged countries would receive spillover from EB1, EB4 and EB5 (not EB2-ROW as allocation are very less). With time and current backlog, we expect EB5 at best would yield 5000 and EB1 only 10,000.

It is also assumed that EB2 category will not be current for quite some time as  EB2-ROW will be backlogged until 2015 and new EB2-IC demand will always be replenishing inventory. That said, EB3 will not receive any spillover anytime soon. This is an assumption and reality may be different. EB1 category is always assumed current for sake of simplicity in calculations.

 

Generally Reserved  will be used by ROW-M-P; Unreserved will be used by I-C for initial years

Visa Bulletin Predictions from Mr. Charles Oppenheim & More...

US Non-Immigrants Blog - Immigration News Update 

27 October 2011

These are many things that are currently happening at the EB category level. We would like to capture our take and analysis in this article.

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Visa Bulletin Predictions from Mr. Charles Oppenheim

Source - http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/10/26/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-october-26-2011/

Capital Immigration Law Group and others law firms recently met with Charles Oppenheim in Washington, DC.  Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State.  For many, he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards.  He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month.

Capital Immigration Law Group’s summary from meeting with Mr. Oppenheim’s 

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months.   Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW).  This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India.  These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months.  Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins.  It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further.   Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins.     Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012.   He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.

EB-3 Rest of World (ROW).  This category is expected to move gradually slightly forward for the next few visa bulletins — anticipated forward movement of 3 to 4 weeks per month.

EB-3 China.  This category is expected to move slowly forward – by 1-3 weeks per month for the next few months.

EB-3 India.  Unfortunately, this category is, according to Mr. Oppenheim, “ridiculously oversubscribed” and forward movement, if any, will be very slow.    This category is expected to remain unchanged or to move very slowly forward (by a 1-2 weeks or so).   This is mainly caused by the fact that there are simply too many EB-3 India applicants waiting for a visa number to become available.   Mr. Oppenheim suggested that since the summer of 2007, no new EB-3 India cases have been filed and there is a significant number of EB-3 India candidates waiting for the priority dates to move forward.

Our take

EB-2 China and EB-2 India.- After such estimation from Mr. Charlie Oppenheim, it is clear that we will see cut-off date of 01 March 2008 or better pretty soon.

Previously this was analyzed in detail herein, and is now currently summarized below for reference.

"Demand Data for EB2-IC reduced by 5400 compared to last month to account for movement upto July 15th  2007 in October Visa Bulletin. This reduction in demand allowed DOS to move dates to 01 Nov  2007 for  the current bulletin. We expect that total movement for this month could bring in 13,976 (inclusive 2,675 from demand data) demand. So far for last two months, USCIS would eventually see demand around 5400+13976 = 19,376 once these applications would convert into documentary qualified applications. Out of these, 8,000 is known demand upto July 2007. As we all know, DOS will not be able to sustain this ready-to-use demand for long time unless it will retrogress dates next visa bulletin or eventually start using quarterly spillover. 

I have a very strong feeling that DOS really want to use quarterly spillover, and hence we are not seeing many EB2-IC approvals from TSC yet. So far, NSC is in par with the EB1 and EB2-ROW demand but TSC still have some catching up to do in this regard. Once EB2-ROW and EB1 demand is satisfied, apparently it will be easy for USCIS/DOS to rationalize use of left over quarterly visas as spillover. Mr. Oppenheim clearly mentioned in the visa bulletin that some more significant movement in expected during this fiscal year before he will decide to pull the plug. Total visa demand for EB2-IC  that he may have in mind can be any where from 25000-30000 including annual visa quota. We already know 19,376 is already taken care of and atleast 5600 - 10,600 more intake is expected for this year at some point. In  terms of cut-off dates this means, we can see January 2008 - April 2008 current anytime.

It is difficult to guess when such movement will happen but atleast 3-6 months total  movement in one or two steps is expected. Such movement for December or January visa bulletin cannot be discarded at this time although current bulletin clearly mentioned such movement should not be expected as a norm on monthly basis. Eventually when dates will retrogress, it is expected to reach June 2007 PD in worst case. We still believe for current fiscal year November 2007 will receive green card and December 2007-January 2008 will be on the edge. Individuals with PD from Jan- June 2008 can expect EAD, with June 2008 having slim chance and March 2008 best"

 EB-3 (ROW-M-P) - Based on Mr. Oppenheim's estimation and data from currently released October 2011  I-485 pending inventory report, we expect dates for EB3-ROW-M-P to atleast reach PD July 2006-September 2006 in FY 2012. EB3-P demand is high for calendar year 2006 which may restrict cut-off date movement . Realistically, August 2006 is still plausible.

EB3-India is expected to reach 08 November 2002 by end of FY 2012.

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October 2011 I-485 Pending Inventory Released

Source - USCIS

USCIS yesterday released I-485 pending inventory upto 01 October 2011. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a quick summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to previous inventories,

EB1 demand : In general, EB1 is highly backlogged with atleast 14072 applications still pending at Service Centers. This is high when compared year-to-year to similar inventories previously released in October 2010 and August 2009. Generally with start of an each fiscal year, such pending numbers were within 5000-8000. This backlog is highly affected by Kazarian Memo and with time can affect spillover to EB2 category if such demand or backlog would continuously grow for rest of the year.

EB2-ROW-M-P demand - When compared to previous some inventories year to year (or quarter to quarter) current inventory for this category stands at least 20% higher. If such demand is maintained for rest of the year, spillover received will be minimum from this category. It is estimated that EB2-IC received atleast 6000 unused visa numbers from this category in FY 2011. At current rate, such numbers can be as low as 1000-2000,

EB2-IC demand - From October 2010 to October 2011, reduction in inventory for this category is 27386.  We should note that last year EB2-I used it's annual limit of 2803 just to satisfy porting demand. Adding these two together, we can say 30,189 visas were used alone for EB2-IC; which also matches closely to our estimated (spillover + annual limit) for FY 2011. Estimated worst-case pending PWMB + new porting still pending at USCIS from the inventory is around 4067 = 8965 + 3102 - 8000

EB3- ROW demand - Inventory for EB3-ROW matches closely with demand data last released for November visa bulletin. As mentioned before that year to year inventory for EB3-ROW does not make sense as some so called 'hidden demand' always appear. We will expect to see atleast PD July 2006 for FY 2012 due to high EB3-P demand of 7725 for CY 2006. Please note that CP demand for EB3-P is not included in this  inventory. In past such demand were as high as 30% for CP cases.

EB3- India - Inventory for EB3-India compared to last fiscal year reduced by 4884 (2803 annual limit + 2081 estimated porting and/or case abandonment upto January 2003 ). Minimum movement around 08 November 2002 is expected. Movement can be little more if more folks from November-December 2002 will port for this year.

EB4- demand - Last year, EB4 demand was high or at par, and hence no spillover was received from this category. Demand for this category looks 50% less compared to last year. This category should be followed closely for rest of the year. Some spillover may be possible from this category.

EB5- demand - EB5 demand is similar level as last year and may yield around 3000-4000 unused visa numbers if similar demand is seen in FY 2012.

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H.R. 3012 approved by the Judiciary Committee and Moved to House Floor

The Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, H.R. 3012, was introduced by Representative Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) on September 22, 2011 and was approved today by judiciary committee for consideration in chamber. Please see below the steps that bill has to undergo before becoming a law. Bill  has currently completed Step 6 (see below). The effect of this bill on different EB categories will be presented once bill is passed and becomes a law.

The bill aims to eliminate per-country visa limits, which are currently causing severe backlogs in green card. As of right now, the Immigration and Nationality Act allows for only 140,000 employment-based visas to be allocated each year.  At present, the percentage of visas that can be allocated to any one country is capped  at  7% percent of all of the employment-based visas available.

Under the Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, , the per-country limit on employment-based visas would be eliminated by 2015 after a 3 year phase-in period.  During the 3 year transition, the vast majority of Employment Based visas would be allocated on first-in-first out basis in order to eliminate the current backlogs. In FY 2012, backlogged countries would receive unreserved visas - 85% of the visa allocation. In FY 2013 and FY 2014  they would receive 90% of the visa allocations.

H.R. 3012 also  increases from 7% to  15%  percent the total number of available visas regarding per-country restrictions for family-based immigrants.

  

How a Bill Becomes Law?

There are potentially 10 steps a bill can go through before becoming a law. Below is a description of each step in the process, using the Genetic Information Non-Discrimination Act of 2003 (S. 1053), as an example.

Step 1: A Bill Is Born

Anyone may draft a bill; however, only members of Congress can introduce legislation, and, by doing so, become the sponsor(s). The president, a member of the cabinet or the head of a federal agency can also propose legislation, although a member of Congress must introduce it.

Step 2: Committee Action

As soon as a bill is introduced, it is referred to a committee. At this point the bill is examined carefully and its chances for passage are first determined. If the committee does not act on a bill, the bill is effectively "dead."

Step 3: Subcommittee Review

Often, bills are referred to a subcommittee for study and hearings. Hearings provide the opportunity to put on the record the views of the executive branch, experts, other public officials and supporters, and opponents of the legislation.

Step 4: Mark up

When the hearings are completed, the subcommittee may meet to "mark up" the bill; that is, make changes and amendments prior to recommending the bill to the full committee. If a subcommittee votes not to report legislation to the full committee, the bill dies. If the committee votes for the bill, it is sent to the floor.

Step 5: Committee Action to Report a Bill

After receiving a subcommittee's report on a bill the full committee votes on its recommendation to the House or Senate. This procedure is called "ordering a bill reported."

Step 6: Voting

After the debate and the approval of any amendments, the bill is passed or defeated by the members voting.

Step 7: Referral to Other Chamber

When the House or Senate passes a bill, it is referred to the other chamber, where it usually follows the same route through committee and floor action. This chamber may approve the bill as received, reject it, ignore it, or change it.

Step 8: Conference Committee Action

When the actions of the other chamber significantly alter the bill, a conference committee is formed to reconcile the differences between the House and Senate versions. If the conferees are unable to reach agreement, the legislation dies. If agreement is reached, a conference report is prepared describing the committee members' recommendations for changes. Both the House and Senate must approve the conference report.

Step 9: Final Action

After both the House and Senate have approved a bill in identical form, it is sent to the president. If the president approves of the legislation, he signs it and it becomes law. Or, if the president takes no action for ten days, while Congress is in session, it automatically becomes law. If the president opposes the bill he can veto it; or if he takes no action after the Congress has adjourned its second session, it is a "pocket veto" and the legislation dies.

Step 10: Overriding a Veto

If the president vetoes a bill, Congress may attempt to "override the veto." If both the Senate and the House pass the bill by a two-thirds majority, the president's veto is overruled and the bill becomes a law.

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December 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

December Visa Bulletin will be the third bulletin for FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for December 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

December 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions

• EB3- China could advance to 08 September 2004
• EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 15-Jan-2006.
• EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
• EB3-India could advance to 01 August 2002.
• EB2-India and EB2-China could see 3-6 months in coming bulletins.  It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Movement is solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake new demand for FY 2012. At this time, total movement as huge as 3-6 months in one or two steps in coming month(s) cannot be discarded before we may see retrogression. In next few bulletins, dates can move anywhere from Jan 2008 – June 2008. Although DOS warned about stall, they may (should) not stall current movement as such movement may not consume visas until these applications will become documentarily qualified.

Note – Predictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.

Visa Bulletin - November 2011

November 2011 Visa Bulletin  for the FY 2012 was released on Wednesday, October  5th, 2011. November visa bulletin brought 3.5 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories. as hoped in our last prediction  DOS at this point is still in-taking new demand for  FY 2012 as cut-off dates for  EB2-IC has now crossed the latest  and favorable PD of July 2007 that was ever current. EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P still not seeing enough reduction in demand data month-to-month. Family Based category  saw some movement.

Q
Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines.   EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by three and a half (3.5) months to November 1, 2007.
• EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only two (2) weeks to December 22, 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by two (2) weeks to August 22, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to July 22, 2002.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by two (2) months for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to November 15, 2005.  It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to June 15, 2002.

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 moves forward (again, for second month).  FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to July 22, 2004.   FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 1, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to February 8, 1997.
• FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to February 15, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to December 1, 2008.
• FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to August 1, 2003.  FB2B Mexico remains unchanged at November 22, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by ten (10) weeks to July 15, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

 

FB Categories
No Notes

EB Categories

CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007.  This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices.  While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis.  Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility. 

Demand Data used for November 2011 Visa Bulletin Movement

 

EB2-India & China Movement 

Demand Data for EB2-IC reduced by 5400 compared to last month to account for movement upto July 15th  2007 in October Visa Bulletin. This reduction in demand allowed DOS to move dates to 01 Nov  2007 for  the current bulletin. We expect that total movement for this month could bring in 13,976 (inclusive 2,675 from demand data) demand. So far for last two months, USCIS would eventually see demand around 5400+13976 = 19,376 once these applications would convert into documentary qualified applications. Out of these, 8,000 is known demand upto July 2007. As we all know, DOS will not be able to sustain this ready-to-use demand for long time unless it will retrogress dates next visa bulletin or eventually start using quarterly spillover.  


I have a very strong feeling that DOS really want to use quarterly spillover, and hence we are not seeing many EB2-IC approvals from TSC yet. So far, NSC is in par with the EB1 and EB2-ROW demand but TSC still have some catching up to do in this regard. Once EB2-ROW and EB1 demand is satisfied, apparently it will be easy for USCIS/DOS to rationalize use of left over quarterly visas as spillover. Mr. Oppenheim clearly mentioned in the visa bulletin that some more significant movement in expected during this fiscal year before he will decide to pull the plug. Total visa demand for EB2-IC  that he may have in mind can be any where from 25000-30000 including annual visa quota. We already know 19,376 is already taken care of and atleast 5600 - 10,600 more intake is expected for this year at some point. In  terms of cut-off dates this means, we can see January 2008 - April 2008 current anytime.

It is difficult to guess when such movement will happen but atleast 3-6 months total  movement in one or two steps is expected. Such movement for December or January visa bulletin cannot be discarded at this time although current bulletin clearly mentioned such movement should not be expected as a norm on monthly basis. Eventually when dates will retrogress, it is expected to reach June 2007 PD in worst case. We still believe for current fiscal year November 2007 will receive green card and December 2007-January 2008 will be on the edge. Individuals with PD from Jan- June 2008 can expect EAD, with June 2008 having slim chance and March 2008 best .
Calculations for 19,376 demand

• EB2-IC PERMs from August 2007 - October 2007 = 4651
• That will convert into I-140s (78%) - 4651 * 0.78 = 3627
• Total I-485 filed -  3627 * 2.25 (Dependent factor) = 8161
• People who missed boat in 2007 from PD 15 April 2007  = 2865
• Carry over PWMB from FY 2011 that will be "doc qual" = 350
• Visible Demand from PD 15 April 2007 - July 2007 = 8000
• Porting not considered so far. 
• Adding total demand in BLUE = 8161+2865+350+8000 =  19,376

Projection for EB3 Category
Projections for EB3 ROW-M-P will be handled separately in different updated article. Increase in demand  for EB3-P will affect overall movement for aforementioned categories. As of now July 2006 PD looks like best case for this FY 2012. Demand for three categories only reduced by 1475 compared to last month when 2200 visas numbers out of 2933 is expected at minimum. More updated analysis is required. EB3-India and China are moving as expected.

 

November 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

November Visa Bulletin will be the second bulletin for FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for November 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

November 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions

Visa Bulletin - October 2011

October 2011 Visa Bulletin which is the first Visa Bulletin for the current FY 2012 was released on Friday. The major surprise for the October visa bulletin was the 3 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories. This movement came as surprise for many people. DOS took this step to gauge demand for  FY 2012 as cut-off dates for  EB2-IC is  now reaching the latest PD of July 2007 that was ever current. EB3 categories advanced as expected, as of now there is no deviation from our estimation. Family Based category also saw some interesting movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 saw some interesting movement.: EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current while EB-2 China and EB-2 India moved to July 15, 2007.
• EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by two (2) weeks to December 08 , 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by three (3) weeks to August 08, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by one (1) week to July 15, 2002.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by six (6) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to September 15, 2005.  It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to June 8, 2002

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 moves forward (finally!).  FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by six (6) weeks to June 15, 2004.   FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to March 22, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by a little over two (2) months to January 8, 1997.
• FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to January 8, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by three (3) weeks to October 15, 2008.
• FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to July 15, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by three (3) weeks to November 22, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to May 1, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

 

FB Categories

Worldwide dates:

F1: three to six weeks
F2A:three to six weeks
F2B:one to two weeks
F3: one to two weeks
F4: up to one month

Please be advised that the above date ranges are only estimates for the next few months, and are subject to fluctuations in demand.

EB Categories

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current
China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

Mexico: Current
Philippines: Current

Employment Third:

Worldwide: up to one month
China: one to three weeks
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: up to one month
Philippines: up to one month

Employment Fourth: Current
Employment Fifth: Current

Please be advised that the above date ranges are only estimates for the next few months, and are subject to fluctuations in demand. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.

EB2-India & China Movement 

It is very apparent from the statement in Visa Bulletin that this unexpected movement for EB2-IC category is to allow intake of new demand in order to keep cases already pre-adjudicated and documentarily qualified for next spillover season in FY 2012. CP demand for this category is minimal (around 2-5%) and majority of approval usually comes  from  those approved at USCIS. Current movement of 3 months would make atleast 6164 already pending applicants current for EB2-IC category, and this at the same time will bring in lot of applications from those who missed their filing during July 2007 fiasco (PWMBs). Estimated PWMBs to apply after October 2011 could be anywhere from 3500-4000 (including dependents).

Visa Bulletin mentions "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year". We expect dates to progress or stand still atleast for Q1 FY 2012 before it could retrogress in Q2 FY 2012 if needed. Mr. Oppenheim has followed similar steps last year for Family Based category before he retrogressed that category in January 2011.

 

We understand that this whole movement is to gauge the demand and to keep cases ready for approval, but what's ambiguous to everyone is how USCIS/DOS is expecting to approve these many cases that are made current. In addition to those now ready to be approved, we have PWMBs who have filed in May-August 2011, that are expected to become documentarily qualified in Q1 FY 2012. PWMBs who will file on and after October 2011 are not expected to become documentarily qualified until Q2 FY 2012.

Million dollar question is how do we expect visa numbers to become available to approve these cases? EB2- India and China only have 2803 per country limit. In addition, there are restrictions on number of visas that can be used each quarter from the annual limit. Only way we see these cases to get approved is through quarterly spillover.  Below we have done quick calculations to estimate EB1 and EB2-ROW demand that could become documentarily qualified in Q4 FY 2011 or early Q1 FY 2012. If similar trend will continues, we expect similar demand to come in each month for Q1 FY 2012 even after few approvals in Q4 FY 2011. 

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From Q3 PERM approvals, we can also estimate what EB2-ROW demand will be. Around 3189 EB2-ROW PERMs were approved in Q3 FY 2011, that are expected to become documentarily qualified on I-140 approval during Q4 FY 2011 and Q1 FY 2012.

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Looking at above table, we can expect anything around 4425 as quarterly spillover which in addition of 1400 EB2-IC quota can allow atleast 5825 approvals. Based on this it is very unlikely that all those who became current in October 2011 visa bulletin can expect approvals in October. Approvals will come slowly but please do not be surprised if few of your SR request would come back with tag "waiting for visa numbers". It is difficult to guess how USCIS will handle approvals but it is very likely that those becoming documentarily qualified through June-July filings may see approvals before those who became current in October VB. This way when DOS will ever retrogress in Q2 FY2012, DOS will not have to retrogress dates by lot . This would help them keep their books look clean. Use of available visa numbers will be at USCIS/DOS discretion and policy.Time will tell. In past some of the October VB approvals also came from unused visa numbers from last fiscal year.

Finally, what would be enough demand for Mr Oppenheim to consider retrogression of EB2-IC? This totally depend upon DOS. Best guess would be anywhere from November 2007-March 2008 (18000-30000 new demand). We still expect PD November 2007 to receive GC for sure in FY 2012. We believe it will take long time for all new PWMBs and post July 2007 filings  to become documentarily qualified and get counted towards monthly demand data. As per current visa bulletin, it seems this movement will continue for some time, atleast until January-February 2012 before we can see retrogression. Again, with DOS all is at will

Demand Data - October 2011 Visa Bulletin

Demand Data used for October 2011 Visa Bulletin cut-off date determination is captured here in.

 

PERM Approvals & Processing Time : Q3 FY 2011

Here is a break down of PERM data (certified and certified_expired only) that was processed each month for FY 2011 Q3. Data has been broken down among different PDs that were approved per month in Q3 FY 2011. As of now it looks like lot of audit cases until December 2010 are approved. Total 16,886 PERMs were approved in Q3 - FY 2011.

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In addition, please see distribution of PERM approvals segregated based on country of chargeability and category. Most of the PERMs filed in FY 2011- Q3 belonged to India and ROW. It is becoming apparent that with passing time, most of the individuals are filing their cases in EB2 category. 

PERM processing time as of 22 August 2011 is at May 2011 for new cases. Analysis of Q3 PERM approvals shows that last approved case in FY 2011 was with PD 3rd May 2011.  

 

October 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

October Visa Bulletin will be the first bulletin for FY 2012. As with every October visa bulletin for new fiscal year, retrogression can never be discounted. Here is the prediction for October 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

EB3 ROW, Mexico & Philippines - FY 2012 Movement Estimation

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until 15th November 2006, will be 34,674. Based on annual allocation for EB3-ROW-M-P, visa number available will be 29,128 +2803 + 2803 = 34,734. Please see table below for detailed calculation. EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to reach 15-November-2006 for FY 2012 based on currently available data. This projection will be updated as cut-off dates will progress in FY 2012.

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW will only use 24,733 visas; EB3-M will use 3,024 visas and EB3-P will end up using 6,917 visa numbers. I-485 demand (or AOS or visible demand) from the inventory that is expected to clear in FY 2012 is 21507, 2326 and 5321 respectively for ROW, Mexico and Philippines in EB3 category.

Last Updated - 22 August 2011

* - Please note that for FY 2011, there was change in demand from inventory to inventory, every quarter. From October 2010 to September 2011, at least 7194 demand for previous already current PDs were added all together. These numbers accounted for at least 50% of increase in demand from inventory to inventory. If this is again observed for FY 2012, cut-off date is expected to reach only until PD July 2006 for EB3-ROW-M-P. We are hoping since most of the cases from LO are now returned to National Service Centers this is less unlikely, but we will need to keep a close eye at difference in demand that  may  evolve from inventory to inventory,

EB3-ROW FY 2011 - Estimation of Visa Number used out of 28,800

In this post we have estimated use of EB3-ROW annual allocation of 28,800 visas for FY 2011. Later, this calculation will be used to estimate movement for FY 2012. Positive side of movement observed in FY 2011 is that since cut-of dates for EB3-ROW-M-P are same, we can expect EB3-ROW to use almost close to full allocation for movement in FY 2012. Please note this is one way of looking at the movement observed in FY 2011 and reality can involve more hidden demand than estimated, and less visas used for EB3-M-P. We will know more about this when country-wise visa used numbers will be out for FY 2011 in December 2011.

From annual allocation, total visas used for EB3-ROW in FY 2011

Total visa used upto 22 November 2005 = 13927 + 7092 = 21019

Adding Consular Processing cases (15 %) = 1.15 * 21019 = 24,172

On similar lines as above from different inventories,

From ROW annual allocation, total visas used EB3-Mexico in FY 2011

Total visa used upto 22 November 2005 = 5177

Adding Consular Processing cases (15 %) = 1.15 * 5177 = 5,953

Out of EB3-ROW allocation, EB3-M could have used 5953-2803 = 3,150

From ROW annual allocation, total visas used EB3-Philippines in FY 2011

Total visa used upto 22 November 2005 = 2813

Adding Consular Processing cases (30 %) = 1.30 * 2813 = 3,656

Out of EB3-ROW allocation, EB3-P could have used 3656-2803 = 854

 Estimated EB3-ROW Allocation used for FY 2011

So EB3- ROW annual allocation of 28,800 were used more or less in this way (some error here and there)

.

24,172 + 3,150 + 854 = 28,176

Visa Bulletin - September 2011

September 2011 Visa Bulletin which is the last Visa Bulletin for the current FY2011 fiscal year was released yesterday. The major disappointment for the September visa bulletin was the lack of any movement in the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, which have moved significantly over the past few months. Surge in EB1 and EB2-ROW demand for the last quarter was the main reason for no movement in this category. If porting numbers and PWMBs are not huge, we expect no or slow movement in this category starting October 2011 for FY 2012. Please see table below on to estimate how slow movement can be. EB2-China will progress much quicker than EB2-India.

 EB3 India saw major movement of 5 weeks due to reduction in the demand data by 725 compared to August visa bulletin demand data. Movement was based on 588 (for June) + 168 visa numbers (from 01 July 2002 - 08 July 2002). Movement due to reduction in demand data upto PD 1 January 2003, caused due to porting is not an appropriate way of progressing dates for EB3-India . In reality, reduction in demand could be across the board for PD 01 June 2002 - 31 December 2002. If this is true, then we fear that EB3-India may not see any movement for Q1 FY 2012. Though it is unclear now but stall or little retrogression for EB3-India in Q1 cannot be discounted. We will need to observe VB movement closely for this category in FY 2012.

EB3-ROW-M-P will continue to move slowly but steadily for next visa bulletin. We will work on new article for What to expect for EB3-ROW-M-P in FY 2012.

EB3-China will continue to move slowly for FY 2012 due to high CP demand.

Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the September 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 remains unchanged across the board: EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current while EB-2 China and EB-2 India are unchanged at April 15, 2007.
• EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to November 22 , 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by only one (1) week to July 15, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by five (5) weeks to July 8, 2002.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged at  April 22, 2003 for China and at June 1, 2002 for India.  It moves forward by three (3) months to August 1, 2005 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the September 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 remains unchanged (again) for ROW, China and India at May 1, 2004.   It moves forward by one (1) week to March 15, 1993 for Mexico.  It also moves forward by 6.5 months to November 1, 2006 for for Philippines.
• FB2A moves forward by over four (4) months to December 1, 2008 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by less than four (4) months to September 22, 2008.
• FB2B ROW, China and India remains unchanged at July 1, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by one (1) month to November 1, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by over (3) months to March 22, 2001.

We continue to see the FB2A category move forward, after the significant retrogression over the past several months – this month by four weeks.   Unfortunately, due to strong demand, FB1 category remains unchanged, for a fourth month in a row, after it retrogressed by 8 months during the April 2011 Visa Bulletin.  This is due to heavy demand in the FB1 category which is expected to continue and further lack of movement (or backward movement) in FB1 is possible.
 

Demand Data used for September 2011 VIsa Bulletin

Demand Data that will be used to estimate cut-off dates for September 2011 Vssa Bulletin was released today. Please see cumulative difference in Demand Data for August  and September 2011 visa bulletin below. Please note that EB3-P demand data for September visa bulletin data is no different than June 2011 Demand Data.

Based on the difference here we can expect following movement for the last visa  bulletin for the current fiscal year.

• EB3 category for ROW/M/P should reach anywhere from 22 Nov 2005 - 08 Dec 2005. Earlier statement made about EB3-P trailing EB3-ROW may not come true for next few months as DOS has not updated numbers for EB3-P since June 2011 Demand data. This suggests that for some more time EB3-P will move with EB3-ROW-M.

• EB2 category demand is exactly that would be required to clear backlog until July 2007 fiasco. 8000 more visa numbers will take EB2-IC cut-off date to 15 August 2007. We will still like to stick to our estimate of 15 June 2007 (+/- 1 week). Spillover used so far without annual limit for EB2-IC this year is 25,325.

• For EB2- IC demand data show CP cases post 2007. Numbers are only few hundred to account for. Do not know if it is still worthwhile to make major movement and overwhelm USCIS for PD beyond July 2007 unless strategy is to get some inventory for next year. This will be done most probably next fiscal year depending upon where dates will end up for this visa bulletin.

• EB3 -I demand reduced by 6400 -733 (visas used for movement for the Aug) ~ 5675. EB3-I cut-off date can be anywhere from 8 June 2002 - 15 June 2002.

• EB3-China can reach anywhere from 22 July 2004 – 01 Aug 2004

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EB1 Statistics for I-140 Approval and Denial for FY 2010 and FY 2011

Here are the recent EB1 statistics released by AILA until July 19th, 2011  for receipts, approval, denials and RFE for FY 2011 and FY 2010.

EB1- Statistics for FY 2010 and FY 2011

EB1 - DHS Statistics based on Primary and Derivative applicants for FY 2010

From FY 2011 statistics it looks there are almost 8,712 approvals so far until July 2011. If we will consider that the similar family size or Primary to Dependent ratio as FY 2010 is assumed, i.e. 2.39, full year FY 2011 consumption for EB1 for FY 2011 becomes,

FY 2011 Consumption EB-1 = ( 8712 * 2.39 * 12 months )/ 9.5 months (until July 2011) 
                                             = 26,301

So this leaves, 40,000 -26,301 = 13,699 as unused visa numbers for spillover. We know out of these 12K is already used. So in all we can expect only 2000-3000 for September visa bulletin for FY 2011. Expectation from EB1 is very little for the next bulletin.