Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Thursday, December 22, 2011

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific for USCIS Adjudicators

Posted On Thursday, December 22, 2011 by Rav 14 comments

 Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

Burden of Proof and Standard of Proof

The burden is on the petitioner to establish that he or she is eligible for the benefit sought. This means that if an alien seeking a benefit has not shown eligibility, the application should be denied. The government is not called upon to make any showing of ineligibility until the alien has first shown that he is eligible. You may contrast this in your mind with a criminal case or with a removal hearing in which the government must first prove its case.

Evidential Standards
 
Because the strict rules of evidence used in judicial proceedings do not apply in administrative proceedings, a wide range of oral or documentary evidence may be used in a visa petition proceeding or other immigration benefit application proceeding. A copy of a public record (birth certificate, marriage or divorce certificates, adoption decrees, and similar documents) is admissible if the person having custody over the original records has certified the copy. For example, a copy of a divorce decree is admissible if the clerk of the court has certified the copy. A regulation, provides that a certified copy of a foreign public record (other than a Canadian record) should also be authenticated by a U.S. Foreign Service officer or, if the country is a party to the Hague Convention on abolition of legalization requirements for foreign public records, by a higher-level official of the foreign country.


Best Evidence Rule

In adjudicating a petition or application for a benefit, immigration officer will often deal with evidence and facts which are of a documentary nature, such as marriage dates, dates of birth, death, divorce, criminal records, school records, etc. This often brings into play what is known as the "best evidence rule.” While the best evidence rule is not strictly applicable in an administrative proceeding, IOs should adhere to it as closely as they can. The rule states that where the contents of a document are at issue in a case, the document itself must be introduced rather than secondary evidence as to its content. 


Primary and Secondary Evidence

Closely related to the best evidence rule is the concept of primary and secondary evidence. Primary evidence is evidence which on its face proves a fact. For example, the divorce certificate is primary evidence of a divorce. Secondary evidence is evidence which makes it more likely that the fact sought to be proven by the primary evidence is true, but cannot do so on its own face, without any external reference. In the above example, church records showing that an individual was divorced at a certain time would be secondary evidence of the divorce. 
Adjudicators will often encounter situations in which primary evidence is unavailable. This gives rise to a presumption of ineligibility , which is the applicant or petitioner’s burden to overcome.  A petitioner or applicant cannot simply assert that the primary evidence does not exist. The absence of a primary record, instead, must be proven either:

  • By a written statement from the appropriate issuing authority attesting to the fact that no record exists or can be located, or that the record sought was part of some segment of records which were lost or destroyed; or 
  • By evidence (such as an affidavit) "that repeated good faith attempts were made to obtain the required document or record."

To check country-specific information on availability of various foreign documents see below drop-down menu that is used by Immigration Officers. If this Appendix shows that a particular record is generally not available in a particular country, USCIS may accept secondary evidence without requiring the written statement from the issuing authority.


COUNTRY SPECIFIC REQUIRED DOCUMENTS



General List of Commonly Required Documents

Birth Certificates

You (and any family members immigrating with you to the United States) must obtain an original birth certificate issued by the official custodian of birth records in your country of birth, showing your date of birth, place of birth, and parentage.

The certificate must contain the:
  • Your date of birth
  • Your place of birth
  • Names of both parents
  • Indication by the appropriate authority that it is an extract from the official records
Unobtainable birth certificates

If your birth record is not obtainable for any reason, a certified statement must be obtained from the appropriate government authority explaining why your birth record is unavailable. You must also submit secondary evidence such as:
  • A baptismal certificate that contains the date and place of birth, as well as both parents names (providing the baptism took place shortly after birth)
  • An adoption decree for an adopted child
  • An affidavit from a close relative, preferably your mother, stating the date and place of birth, both parents names, and your mother’s maiden name.
Note: An affidavit executed before an official authorized to take oaths or affirmations must also be provided.


 SAMPLE AFFIDAVIT


AFFIDAVIT BY  Mr. xxxxxx (FATHER NAME) & Mrs.xxxxxxx (MOTHER NAME)

Re: [YOUR FULL NAME]

I, Mr. [FATHER FULL NAME] & Mrs. [MOTHER FULL NAME], here by depose and say:
1.    Our  full and complete address is xxxxxxxxxxx
2.      That I, FATHER'S FULL NAME Age XXX, was born on MM/DD/YYY in the town/city of xxxxxxxx
3. That I, MOTHER'S FULL NAME Age XXX, was born on MM/DD?/YYY in the town/city of xxxxxxxx
4.     We got married on MM/DDYYY in the city of XXXXXX, COUNTRY.
5.     We, FATHER'S & MOTHER'S FULL NAME are parents of the following children:
a. YOUR FULL NAME born on MM/DD/YY; and
b. YOUR SIBLINGS NAME born on MM/DD/YYYY
6. [YOUR FULL NAME] was born in CITY, STATE, COUNTRY
7.      This affidavit is being submitted because official full name of [YOUR FULL NAME] was not [mentioned] OR [registered] OR [OTHER REASON] in the birth certificate at the time of birth. [His/Her] Full Name is [YOUR FULL NAME] /OR/ [YOUR FULL NAME] birth was not registered because [reason].

I declare under penalty of perjury, that the foregoing is a true and correct statement.

_________________________
FATHER NAME and signature 



_________________________
MOTHER NAME and signature 

 
More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.


Marriage Certificates

Who needs to submit marriage certificates?
If you are married, you must obtain an original marriage certificate, or a certified copy, bearing the appropriate seal or stamp of the issuing authority.

Note: Marriage certificates from certain countries are unavailable. More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.


Court and Prison Records

If you were convicted of a crime, you must obtain a certified copy of each court record and prison record, regardless of the fact that you may have subsequently been granted amnesty, a pardon or other act of clemency.
Court records should include:
  • Complete information about the circumstances of the crime
  • The disposition of the case, including sentence, fines or other penalties imposed


Marriage Termination Documentation

Who needs to submit marriage termination documentation?
If you were previously married, you must obtain evidence of the termination of EACH prior marriage. Evidence must be in the form of original documents issued by an official authority, or certified copies bearing the appropriate seal or stamp of the issuing authority, such as:
  • FINAL divorce decree
  • Death certificate
  • Annulment papers

Deportation Documentation

Who needs to submit deportation documents?
If you have been previously deported or removed from the United States at government expense, you must obtain Form I-212, Permission to Reapply After Deportation, from the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service, or from a U.S. Embassy or Consulate, and follow the instructions on that form.

 Military Records

Who needs to submit military records?
If you served in the military forces of any country, you must obtain a copy of your military record.
Note: Military records from certain countries are unavailable.
More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.
 

Petitioner Documents

Who needs to submit petitioner documents?
If you are applying for an IR5 (Parent of a U.S. Citizen) visa, you are required to provide:
  1. Original or certified copy of your Petitioner’s birth certificate
  2. Original or certified copy of your Petitioner’s marriage certificate from the Petitioner’s current and all previous marriages.
If you are applying for a F4 (Brother or Sister of a U.S. Citizen) visa you are required to provide:
  1. Original or certified copy of your Petitioners birth certificate.
  2.  

Photocopy of Valid Passport Biographic Data Page

Who needs to submit a photocopy of their passport?
The applicant and each family member accompanying the applicant must submit a photocopy of the biographic data page from their respective valid passport.
More specific information for each country can be seen after selecting your country above.

Photographs

You must submit two identical color photographs. Review Photograph Requirements for size specifications and more information.


Wednesday, December 21, 2011

October 2011 EB Demand from I-485 Receipt Data

Posted On Wednesday, December 21, 2011 by Rav 16 comments

As per recently released USCIS Dashboard data on I-485 Receipts, here is the estimation of demand for each category for the month of October 2011. Please see this article to understand how to read this table. Based on past experience, usually 2x or 3x representation of EB2-IC on trackitt is fair estimation.


EB2-IC rough demand estimation that can be accounted until October 2011 is

Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 2679 (PWMB) from 15 April 07 - 15 July 2007 = 15,486

Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 + 2200 (PWMB) from 15 April 07 - 15 July 2007 = 13,685

*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog, after movements for October - November 2011 VB


Monday, December 19, 2011

EB2-IC Visa Bulletin Movements FY 2012 - Is this how Mr. Oppenheim thinks?

Posted On Monday, December 19, 2011 by Rav 30 comments

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? Or if we can formulate a mathematical expression that outlines his approach to move dates. That is when we started digging into this.

Edited - December 20, 2011

We started looking at the movement that Mr. Oppenheim did for Family-Based Category last year in FY 2010 and FY 2011 to see how he moved the dates and then retrogressed them once he had enough demand. Some key difference that should be noted between two categories are a) annual visas for FB category vs EB category is 260K vs. 140K. When one will reduce these numbers per category, ratio between two visa numbers would be quite similar b) For FB category demand could be easily generated in couple months as long as NVC have enough cases documentarily qualified (majority of demand in FB category comes from overseas consular posts) vs. EB category which rely mostly on USCIS to generate demand. C) Mr. Oppenheim started doing such movement for FB category in June 2010 which was still recalibrating until last fiscal year.

Mr. Oppenheim started doing similar movement of EB2-IC from October 2011. If we will assume that Mr. Oppenheim have similar thought process that he had while determining cut-off dates for FB category, then we should have seen movements as suggested in the column “EB2-IC”. But this was the not the case. Factors a) to c) could be the reason for this. As two categories have different demand and different annual visa numbers, movement could not be just purely based on similar difference. We took first two movements that we saw in the last visa bulletin to fit the best correlation to the data, and equation we received was

Recalibrated EB2-IC Movement

It should be noted that there is a correction in the equation. As forward movement will be less based on factor a) to c), even retrogression should be less than anticipated compared to FB category.

Forward Movement

EB2-IC Date:Current Bulletin = EB2-IC Date:Last Bulletin + (((F2A Movement: Current Bulletin - F2A Movement:Last Bulletin)*140000/260000) 60 days)

Retrogression

EB2-IC Date:Current Bulletin = EB2-IC Date:Last Bulletin + (((F2A Movement: Current Bulletin - F2A Movement:Last Bulletin)*140000/260000) +60 days)

This equation closely satisfied movement that we saw for December 2011 and January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We used this data to correlate Mr. Oppenheim thought process in order to extrapolate movement for next few bulletins; as long as he will continue to have same thought process for rest of the year.

Fallacy to above method, it does not take into account any EB demand, PERM numbers and assumes similar correlation will exist for rest of the year. Personally, I would request everyone to take this lightly and do not put lot of eggs into this basket. The correlation when outputted was very interesting hence we thought of sharing it with our readers, especially when there is no logic behind current movement (as far as I can tell). It can give better perspective to this process than just going by a gut feeling.

If this will make sense, and will start panning out in next few bulletin then cut-off dates estimated by equation does not make sense from June 2012 – November 2012, I would say in case spillover is enough, dates may stick around December 2008 until June 2012 and then retrogress to September 2007 in August-September 2012 for some time. By this time most of the folks should have received green card from the filings in October-December 2011. Successively dates will move back to June 2008 in October 2013 or beyond. In all, I would not care about movement shown in later half of the table.

Note : Results here are independent of demand and were shared because they looked interesting. By no means this suggests that this is what we may see in next visa bulletins.




Sunday, December 18, 2011

February 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Posted On Sunday, December 18, 2011 by Rav 121 comments

February 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the second bulletin for Q2 - FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for February 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.


February 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions
  • EB3- China could advance to 15 November 2004
  • EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 February 2006.
  • EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
  • EB3-India could advance to 15 August 2002.
  • EB2-India and EB2-China could see No movement-3 months movement in coming bulletin. It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Based on calculations, EB2-IC in most optimum case should provide green card up to May-June 2008 for this year; current demand would provide enough cases that can be allocated visas through EB2-IC annual limits and estimated spillover as per current trend. February 2012 movement will be solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake enough buffer demand for FY 2012 or beyond. Dates to retrogress in this bulletin seems not plausible.
At this time, our gut feeling is that movement can be as big as 3 months in February 2012 visa bulletin. This could be last intake for this fiscal year and then dates may stall until summer 2012.

NotePredictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.




Saturday, December 10, 2011

Visa Bulletin : January 2012

Posted On Saturday, December 10, 2011 by Rav 94 comments


January 2012 Visa Bulletin  for the FY 2012 was released yesterday. January visa bulletin brought 9 months movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories., thus moving it to the most favorable cur-off dates  ever.  EB3 categories advanced less than expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 2 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected. All other categories are current as expected. Family Based category  saw some movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the January 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
  • EB-1 remains current across the board.
  • EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines.   EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by nine and a half (9.5) months to January 1, 2009.
  • EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only two (2) weeks to February 1, 2006, EB-3 China  moves forward by five (5) weeks to October 15, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to August 8, 2002.
  • The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by one and (1) month for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to February 1, 2006.  It also moves forward by three (3) weeks for India to August 1, 2002.

Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:
  • FB1 moves forward (again, for fourth consecutive month).  FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by six (6) weeks to October 15, 2004.   FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 15, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by six (6) weeks to April 15, 1997.
  • FB2A moves forward by one (1) month to April 22, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to March 22, 2009.
  • FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by three (3) weeks to September 8, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by only one (1) week to December 1, 1992.   FB2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) weeks to September 1, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
 
EB Categories

CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

As per statement in Visa Bulletin, demand is still very less for EB2-IC and DOS expects to move dates more aggressively only  if  demand will stay low for next few month(s). Advancement could be as big as 4-6 months minimum. It is unclear so far that such movement was solely based on less demand or HR 3012 also played a role in Mr. Oppenheim's decision. In any case, even with multiple PERM factor, 01 January 2009 or little more movement is plausible in wake of HR 3012. So far Mr. Oppenheim has stuck to his prediction, and movement in February 2012 visa bulletin cannot be discarded. More on demand could be inferred from January 2012 I-485 Inventory that will be released in Jan-Feb 2012. So far lets hope for the best and be ready for the worst.

EB3-ROW-M-P movement was less than anticipated. As per our calculation that's only 1300 visas worth movement. Not quite sure yet If HR 3012 is affecting Mr. Oppenheim's decision but we will know more in successive visa bulletins.  CP demand is always unknown to us  and with recent release of NVC waiting list that numbers must have changed significantly. This could be reason for the difference in movement of 3 weeks vs. 2 weeks.

FB Categories

No Notes


Monday, November 28, 2011

January 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Posted On Monday, November 28, 2011 by Rav 98 comments

January 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the first bulletin for Q2 - FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.


January 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions
  • EB3- China could advance to 22 September 2004
  • EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 08 February 2006.
  • EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
  • EB3-India could advance to 08 August 2002.
  • EB2-India and EB2-China could see No movement - 3.5 months movement.  It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Based on calculations, EB2-IC should stop over here; present demand would provide enough cases that can be allocated visas through EB2-IC annual limits and estimated spillover as per current trend. January 2012 movement will be solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake enough buffer demand for FY 2012. At this time, our gut feeling is that movement can be as big as 1-3.5 months in January 2012 visa bulletin before we may see retrogression. In successive bulletins (Feb-Mar 2012) dates may stall or even retrogress (exception is H.R. 3012). We will be more confident on Jan VB after release of this month’s demand data.
NotePredictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.









Sunday, November 20, 2011

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand Estimation from I-485 Receipt Data

Posted On Sunday, November 20, 2011 by Rav 17 comments

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and  I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may  start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover. Please note PWMB demand is only upto cut-off date of 15 April 2007 that last became current until September 2011. 


We used I-485 Performance data from USCIS website to estimate representation of Employment-Based cases from the total I-485 cases filed at USCIS service centers. Please note that all the listed cases are filed at Texas Service Center or Nebraska Service Center as per instruction on I-485 form. Family-Based I-485 Cases are filed at Chicago Lock Box and then respectively forwarded to local field offices for processing.


Based on above data, we can safely assume that from time to time Employment-Based Category representation is around 27% of total I-485 cases received at USCIS Service Centers (TSC and NSC). Now if we assume that this percent representation also held true during June to September 2011, we can use I-485 Receipt data to estimate roll-over demand from EB1 and EB2-ROW to FY 2011, and  calculate PWMB cases upto 15 April 2007 that will become documentarily qualified now until January 2012 which will take visa allocations from FY 2012.


Using assumption of 27%, we estimated that out of 73900 I-485 cases received by USCIS, atleast 19,953 cases were filed in Employment-Based category. We then used data from trackitt.com to get distribution of I-485 cases filed since June 2011 to September 2011 at USCIS. Some assumptions were made for EB2-IC representation on trackitt compared to other categories. Distribution for each assumption is tabulated below. 


Above analysis suggest that backlogged carry-over EB1 and EB2-ROW demand from FY 2011 to FY 2012 is huge and will definitely affect spillover in case similar trend is continued. 2X-3X representation of EB2-IC on trackitt looks more realistic and estimated carry-over PWMBs that may start using visa numbers from November -February at NSC and TSC can be anywhere from 3,500-4,800. In case numbers are less than suggested above, then retrospectively it would mean more demand for EB1 and EB2-ROW. One way or other this will affect total spillover that EB2-IC would receive for FY 2012. Apart from this, there are lot more PWMBs that may became eligible since October 1, 2011.

We can arrive at similar demand for PWMB upto 15 April 2007 after using I-485 inventory released data until October 2011. Estimation comes around 4,136 + 8,965 - 8,000 = 5,101. In reality actual numbers can be less but we should still keep track of PWMB cases from FY 2011 that still are not approved at USCIS. Approvals on trackitt look far less than hoped for. Although we still believe some movement may happen for EB2-IC in next bulletin but outlook for EB2-IC based on spillover looks less optimistic. Only reason we believe some more movement may happen is because this is first year when USCIS wlll really have to approve total 140K - CP cases in an year (apart from HR 3012 scenario). So far USCIS always relied on pre-adjudicated cases to reach their annual target. More cases pending at USCIS means more clean cases ready by end of the year for approvals. In case such approvals are not possible then CP cases are only hope for DOS.

Apart from above estimation, please note that cases filed at NSC from May 2011 are comparatively more than those filed at TSC. It may be that with time, TSC and NSC processing times would start aligning and I-485 approvals could eventually take anywhere from 5-6 months at both centers.




Thursday, November 10, 2011

Visa Bulletin - December 2011

Posted On Thursday, November 10, 2011 by Rav 92 comments


December 2011 Visa Bulletin  for the FY 2012 was released today. December visa bulletin brought 4.5 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories., thus moving it to the most favorable cur-off dates  ever.  EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected. All other categories are current as expected. Family Based category  saw some movement.


Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
  • EB-1 remains current across the board.
  • EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines.   EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by four and a half (4.5) months to March 15, 2008.
  • EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to January 15, 2006, EB-3 China  moves forward by two (2) weeks to September 8, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to August 1, 2002.
  • The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by one and a half (1.5) months for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to January 1, 2006.  It also moves forward by five  (5) weeks for India to July 22, 2002.



Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:
  • FB1 moves forward (again, for third consecutive month).  FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to September 1, 2004.   FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 8, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by three (3) weeks to March 1, 1997.
  • FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to March 22, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by two (2) months to February 8, 2009.
  • FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to August 15, 2003.  FB2B Mexico remains unchanged at November 22, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to August 15, 2001.


VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
 
FB Categories
No Notes

EB Categories

No Notes

Demand Data Comparison for December & November 2011 Visa Bulletin Movement





EB3-ROW-M-P Future Movement 
EB3-ROW-M-P moved to cut-off date of 15 January 2006 as expected based on current demand and available visas used on monthly basis. I do not want to sound like a broken record, but there is always some hidden demand and other regularly old PD cases  that continuously become documentarily qualified, thus receiving visas from the monthly allocation. Some of these cases are old  and are captured in I-485 pending inventory. On average 1500-1600 demand is generally reduced on a monthly basis from the available inventory. With the released I-485 pending inventory and recently released demand data, it is becoming more and more obvious that cut-off dates for FY 2012 for this category may not cross 01 August 2006. We will keep an eye on the demand data but anything more than this is less plausible so far.
 
EB3-India & China Future Movement 
EB3-India will continue to move 1 week in each visa bulletin. There could be some substantial movement later in the year but so far this will be the trend. EB3-China is difficult to predict due to high consular processing demand but we expect it to move and cross into PD 2005 for this fiscal year.

EB2-India & China Movement 
Dates for EB2-IC has crossed into cut-off date of March 2008. It is impressive to see that Mr. Oppenheim is taking different approach this year and we should applaud him for his efforts. Since Mr. Oppenheim is taking different course for FY 2012, we believe that we should also keep our dogmatic approach to number crunching away for sometime until it make sense to do so. We should try to speculate what can happen in next few bulletins and successive months from their until summer 2012. We may be 'out to lunch' with this approach but can very well veer back to number crunching if this does not make sense in next few bulletins. 

We believe retrogression is imminent in summer 2012; only exception will be HR 3012  if it will become a law by that time. We know that current movement upto March 2008 from 15 April 2007(Sep VB date) would easily bring demand that could end up using around 28K-30K visas from 140,000 available EB category visas. These are definitely in par with what we would usually see year-to-year with EB2-IC spillover + 5600 annual limits.

Question is so what can we expect from Mr. Oppenheim hereon? Firstly, we can say he has no clue that what real demand is due to such movement and lets presume he might not get hold off this until next two months ( that too only if he decides to persuade USCIS to tell him the numbers based on receipts issued).In reality, he may have to wait for real count on demand until April-May 2012 when such cases will start to become documentarily qualified and USCIS will start requesting for visa numbers. 

That said, Mr. Oppenheim may not still be done with intaking more applications for this fiscal year. First, based on past year trend on visa use, monthly demand and estimations, EB2-IC had always moved around 11 months each year. By moving dates upto March 2008, he had just covered those bases. But still he does not know what would happen with HR 3012, whether it will pass with effective date of 01 September 2011. We know from our estimation on this bill, that cut-off dates until PD June 2008 would easily be current if this bill is passed. With approximation on fall-outs due to unforeseen reason, we can expect PD July-August 2008 to be current. If Mr. Oppenheim will stop such movement from next visa bulletin, he may miss that window on keeping cases ready for adjudication in case HR 3012 will become a law as he mentioned in previous bulletin that it can take 4-6 months to get these cases adjudicated. As I mentioned ,this is a speculation and I may  be out to lunch but we believe in coming bulletin(s), EB2-IC dates may move all the way from June 2008-August 2008.  Once, DOS will have enough applications in hand, it will be pretty straight forward for DOS to retrogress EB2-IC or EB2-ROW in summer 2012, whatever is appropriate based on fate of the bill.

Now who can expect Green Card for FY 2012? and how will dates retrogress? One thing  to keep in mind with USCIS is that they will approve cases randomly usually based on month of filings, regardless of Priority Date. Now since most of the July 2007 backlog is cleared, I believe in 4 to 6 months when such cases will start becoming documentarily qualified, we will start to see approvals. Usually in such case, application filed at NSC will have upper hand compared to TSC filings due to vast difference in processing times. Generally during these months of the year, TSC will only approve 6000-8000 cases and NSC will approve around 10,000 cases consistently. So please do not be surprised if NSC case that become current in December bulletin will see approval before November bulletin cases. This is very common with USCIS. Approvals will be random. File your cases as perfect as possible so that you do not receive RFEs. In general, FY 2012 for EB2-IC will be exceptional with respect to approvals, with dates all over from August 2007 PD to March 2008 PD getting randomly approved. Once DOS will feel that enough visa numbers are used for EB2-IC based on EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, at that time dates may retrogress upto PD 01 Sep 07- 01 Nov 07. This is when we will start to see some huge numbers in demand data and we can go back to our number crunching and predictions based on calculations. For some time we believe VB movement and approvals at USCIS will be random.


 


Saturday, October 29, 2011

H.R. 3012 - Estimation of EB category Cut-Off Date movement if it becomes a law

Posted On Saturday, October 29, 2011 by Rav 354 comments

The Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, H.R. 3012, was introduced by Representative Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) on September 22, 2011 and was approved by judiciary committee for consideration in the house. This bill still has long way to go but as few readers requested us to analyze the impact of this law on current cut-off date movements for EB category, we are providing some rough estimation in this article.

Summary of the Bill

The bill aims to eliminate per-country visa limits, which are currently causing severe backlogs in green card. As of right now, the Immigration and Nationality Act allows for only 140,000 employment-based visas to be allocated each year.  At present, the percentage of visas that can be allocated to any one country is capped  at  7% percent of all of the employment-based visas available.

Under the Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, the per-country limit on employment-based visas would be eliminated by 2015 after a 3 year phase-in period (FY 2012, FY 2013 and FY 2014).  During the 3 year transition, the vast majority of Employment Based visas would be allocated on first-in-first out basis in order to eliminate the current backlogs.

As pointed by one of our reader, an amendment presented by Rep Lofgren to this bill was approved by the committee. As per the amendment, final rules as followed will  beapplied to EB2 and EB3 category only. No change in rule is expected for EB1, EB4 and EB5.

In FY 2012, backlogged pending cases irrespective of country with earlier priority date would receive unreserved visas - 85% of the visa allocation within a category with respect to . In FY 2013 and FY 2014  they would receive 90% of the visa allocations within a category. There is a limit of 25% for reserved visas and 85 % for unreserved visas that could be made available for a single country under this bill. Reserved visas will be only available until FY 2014 (and in general will be used by ROW-M-P based on current backlog). After FY 2014, all visas (there will be no reserved or unreserved visas) within a category will be used strictly for backlog reduction solely based on first-in-first out (FIFO) regardless of country of birth. Please note that there is no change in spillover rules, unused visas will be allocated regardless of country  strictly based on priority date from one category to other category during later quarter in a fiscal year.

Regardless of these updates estimation do not change, as at no point any country for first three phase in period will use more than 85% of the limit.


Estimation of cut-off dates movement each year if HR 3012 becomes a law

We have summarized the estimation of cut-off date movements for EB category if HR 3012 will become a law effective 30 September 2011. In general, EB2 category will be backlogged for 3-4 years whereas EB3 category will be backlogged for 8-9 years. During estimation of such cut-off dates, it was assumed that EB2 category will not receive more than 15000 spillovers or unused visa. 15000 seems like far optimized estimation after considering that with this new bill, EB2 backlogged countries would receive spillover from EB1, EB4 and EB5 (not EB2-ROW as allocation are very less). With time and current backlog, we expect EB5 at best would yield 5000 and EB1 only 10,000.

It is also assumed that EB2 category will not be current for quite some time as  EB2-ROW will be backlogged until 2015 and new EB2-IC demand will always be replenishing inventory. That said, EB3 will not receive any spillover anytime soon. This is an assumption and reality may be different. EB1 category is always assumed current for sake of simplicity in calculations.




Generally Reserved  will be used by ROW-M-P; Unreserved will be used by I-C for initial years