Showing posts with label Immigration. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Immigration. Show all posts
Monday, January 23, 2012
EB Category FY 2012 Demand Upto January 2012 & Visa-Use Budget
Posted On Monday, January 23, 2012 by Rav | 22 comments |
As per recently released USCIS Dashboard data on I-485 Receipts, here is the estimation of demand for each category for the month of Novemberr 2011. Please see this article to understand how to read this table. Based on past experience, usually 2x or 3x representation of EB2-IC on trackitt is fair estimation.
Visa Use Budget and Current EB category demand
From the available data, please see total EB category demand for visas upto January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We used the available data also to estimate Visa-use Budget upto January 2012.
Reference
Rollover Demand - See this article
October Demand - See this article
Please note that December and January Demand is calculated from trackitt using factor of 13. This is still an estimation. January 2012 demand is prorated from current data based on 31 days.
Visa use is calculated based on numbers that are used upto today. Please add all the numbers that are circled in red to estimate current visa use.
Visa use upto January 2012 = 6461 + 8000 + 4805 + 8012 + 1131 + 13468 = 41,877
Please note EB1 use looks high for this quarter only because of high rollover from previous year. If current trend continues then we can expect some more spillover from EB1. This may be the reason that Mr O. is quoting less demand for EB1. We would need to see if trackitt trend will shift due to more new EB1 filings as year progresses.. EB2-ROW demand does not make sense based on trackitt data. We will like to see more PERM data for Q1 FY 2012 to make this conclusion. Please note that we need more 60K demand from today to use EB annual quota completely. This is based on assumption that EB4 and EB5 may not yield much spillover. Low EB2-ROW consumption could be accounted to the delays in PERM processing. This may pick up with time.
If any of the trends for EB1 and EB2-ROW is true and will continue like this for few more months, retrogression is not possible until summer. Even if retrogression will happen in such case, I doubt it will go anywhere in late 2008 or may even stall at PD 2009. This looks too good to be true but for now this scenario cannot be discarded. Surprising data that unfolded due to trackitt trend is an eye-opener. Lets watch inventory and I-485 filing receipts for few more months. So far things looks good for EB2-IC (that means less retrogression).
Monday, January 9, 2012
Visa Bulletin - February 2012
Posted On Monday, January 09, 2012 by Rav | 67 comments |
February 2012 Visa Bulletin for the FY 2012 was released yesterday. February visa bulletin brought 12 months remarkable movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, thus moving it to the most favorable cut-off dates ever. EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected by 2 weeks and 6 weeks. All other categories are current. Family Based category saw some movement.
Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
- EB-1 remains current across the board.
- EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines. EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by twelve (12) months to January 1, 2010.
- EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to February 22, 2006, EB-3 China moves forward by six (6) weeks to December 1, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by only one (1) week to August 15, 2002.
- The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by three (3) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to February 22, 2006. It also moves forward by two (2) weeks for India to August 15, 2002.
Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:- FB-1 moves forward (again, for fifth consecutive month). FB-1 ROW, China and India all move forward by nine (9) weeks to December 22, 2004. FB-1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 22, 1993 and FB-1 Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to May 22, 1997.
- FB-2A moves forward by six (6) weeks to June 8, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB-2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to May 8, 2009.
- FB-2B ROW, China and India move forward by five (5) weeks to October 15, 2003. FB-2B Mexico remains unchanged at December 1, 1992. FB-2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to November 1, 2001.
VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
Employment First: Current
Employment Second:
China
and India: Reports from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
(USCIS) indicate that the rate of new filings for
adjustment of status in recent months has been
extremely low. This fact has required the continued rapid forward
movement
of the cut-off date, in an attempt to generate
demand and maximize number use under the annual limit. Once the level
of new
filings or USCIS processing increases
significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the
cut-off. Readers
are once again advised that an eventual need to
retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility.
Employment Third:
Worldwide: up to one month
China: up to one month
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: up to one month
Philippines: up to one month
Employment Fourth: Current
Employment Fifth: Current
Please be advised that the above ranges are only estimates for what could happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand which can occur at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.
FB Categories
Worldwide dates:
F1: three to five weeks
F2A: one to two months
F2B: three to four weeks
F3: one to three weeks
F4: up to one month
EB2-India & China Movement
Few things that can inferred from above statement is that filing upto December Visa Bulletin from October 2011 are very low than what DOS wants as an inventory for FY 2012. We initially expected cases upto December bulletin cut-off date to be around 16000 but current trackitt trend is pointing towards 9412 applications. (2200 I-485 filings from October Receipt Data and 166 trackitt applications gives factor of 13. From October-December 2011, trackitt has 724 pending cases, which converts into 724*13 = 9412 cases). This is too early to suggest that filings are low but we will continue to monitor I-485 Receipt data and trackitt trend for next few days.
DOS bulletin clearly mentions that once the level
of new
filings or USCIS processing increases
significantly, it will be necessary to slow or stop the movement of the
cut-off. So we can be rest assured that atleast for the next visa bulletin there will be no retrogression. Worst case it will stall. Presently we feel dates will move ahead for next bulletin but slowly. Expected movement can be anywhere from 2-5 months. Our attorney friend also feels movement will continue until April 2012.
As per Mr. Oppenheim, "Readers
are once again advised that an eventual need to
retrogress the cut-off date is also a distinct possibility." That eventual need will be seen around May 2012 visa bulletin i.e. in April. 2012 Dates will retrogress at some point but level of retrogression is difficult to determine without inventory data. Retrogression beyond December 2007 is not plausible. If demand continue to stay less, then June September 2008 could be considered as a high mark point for retrogression but for now lets stick to March-June 2008 as cut-off dates for FY 2012 until we see some more inventory numbers.
It was not clear from above analysis how annual visa use scenario looks like if we consider that trackitt trend from October 2011-December 2011 is resemblance of real demand. Please see numbers below
It was not clear from above analysis how annual visa use scenario looks like if we consider that trackitt trend from October 2011-December 2011 is resemblance of real demand. Please see numbers below
EB2-IC rough visa use estimation for FY 2012 that can be accounted upto 31st December 2011 is
Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 22,219
Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 9412 (up to Dec VB filings) = 20,897
*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog pre July 2007, after movements for October - November 2011 VB
EB3-ROW-M-P Movement
EB3-ROW-M-P
movement based on demand data is 2350 visa numbers worth month to month. We need 32,400 visa numbers from today to cross PD to January 2007. At current rate, it will take 13 months to cross January 2007, which means for FY 2012, PD cut -off date may only reach around 22nd July 2006.
EB3-India & China Movement
EB3-India is currently moving as expected. There is some eventual EB3 to EB2 porting going on at rate of 250 cases per month based on demand data. If this will continue then we can again see some rapid movement for EB3-I in later part of the year, especially in August-September 2012. EB3-China is moving very well with at least 4-6 weeks movement each month. We expect this movement to continue for rest of the year.Wednesday, December 21, 2011
October 2011 EB Demand from I-485 Receipt Data
Posted On Wednesday, December 21, 2011 by Rav | 16 comments |
As per recently released USCIS Dashboard data on I-485 Receipts, here is the estimation of demand for each category for the month of October 2011. Please see this article to understand how to read this table. Based on past experience, usually 2x or 3x representation of EB2-IC on trackitt is fair estimation.
EB2-IC rough demand estimation that can be accounted until October 2011 is
Worst case = 8000* + 4807 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 [see previous article] + 2679 (PWMB) from 15 April 07 - 15 July 2007 = 15,486
Best case = 8000* + 3485 (PWMB) before 15 April 2007 + 2200 (PWMB) from 15 April 07 - 15 July 2007 = 13,685
*- Used in approving EB2-IC backlog, after movements for October - November 2011 VB
Sunday, December 18, 2011
February 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category
Posted On Sunday, December 18, 2011 by Rav | 121 comments |
February 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the second bulletin for Q2 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for February 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see
following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa
numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.
February 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions
- EB3- China could advance to 15 November 2004
- EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 February 2006.
- EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
- EB3-India could advance to 15 August 2002.
- EB2-India and EB2-China could see No movement-3 months movement in coming bulletin. It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Based on calculations, EB2-IC in most optimum case should provide green card up to May-June 2008 for this year; current demand would provide enough cases that can be allocated visas through EB2-IC annual limits and estimated spillover as per current trend. February 2012 movement will be solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake enough buffer demand for FY 2012 or beyond. Dates to retrogress in this bulletin seems not plausible.
At this time, our gut feeling is that movement can be as
big as 3 months in February 2012 visa bulletin. This could be last intake for
this fiscal year and then dates may stall until summer 2012.
Note – Predictions
are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain
of salt.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Visa Bulletin : January 2012
Posted On Saturday, December 10, 2011 by Rav | 94 comments |
January 2012 Visa Bulletin for the FY 2012 was released yesterday. January visa bulletin brought 9 months movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories., thus moving it to the most favorable cur-off dates ever. EB3 categories advanced less than expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 2 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected. All other categories are current as expected. Family Based category saw some movement.
Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the January 2012 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
- EB-1 remains current across the board.
- EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines. EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by nine and a half (9.5) months to January 1, 2009.
- EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only two (2) weeks to February 1, 2006, EB-3 China moves forward by five (5) weeks to October 15, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by only one (1) week to August 8, 2002.
- The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by one and (1) month for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to February 1, 2006. It also moves forward by three (3) weeks for India to August 1, 2002.
Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:- FB1 moves forward (again, for fourth consecutive month). FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by six (6) weeks to October 15, 2004. FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 15, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by six (6) weeks to April 15, 1997.
- FB2A moves forward by one (1) month to April 22, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to March 22, 2009.
- FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by three (3) weeks to September 8, 2003. FB2B Mexico moves forward by only one (1) week to December 1, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) weeks to September 1, 2001.
VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.
As per statement in Visa Bulletin, demand is still very less for EB2-IC and DOS expects to move dates more aggressively only if demand will stay low for next few month(s). Advancement could be as big as 4-6 months minimum. It is unclear so far that such movement was solely based on less demand or HR 3012 also played a role in Mr. Oppenheim's decision. In any case, even with multiple PERM factor, 01 January 2009 or little more movement is plausible in wake of HR 3012. So far Mr. Oppenheim has stuck to his prediction, and movement in February 2012 visa bulletin cannot be discarded. More on demand could be inferred from January 2012 I-485 Inventory that will be released in Jan-Feb 2012. So far lets hope for the best and be ready for the worst.
EB3-ROW-M-P movement was less than anticipated. As per our calculation that's only 1300 visas worth movement. Not quite sure yet If HR 3012 is affecting Mr. Oppenheim's decision but we will know more in successive visa bulletins. CP demand is always unknown to us and with recent release of NVC waiting list that numbers must have changed significantly. This could be reason for the difference in movement of 3 weeks vs. 2 weeks.
FB Categories
No Notes
Monday, November 28, 2011
January 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category
Posted On Monday, November 28, 2011 by Rav | 98 comments |
January 2012 Visa Bulletin will be the first bulletin for Q2 - FY 2012. Here is the prediction for January 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see
following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa
numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.
January 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions
- EB3- China could advance to 22 September 2004
- EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 08 February 2006.
- EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
- EB3-India could advance to 08 August 2002.
- EB2-India and EB2-China could see No movement - 3.5 months movement. It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Based on calculations, EB2-IC should stop over here; present demand would provide enough cases that can be allocated visas through EB2-IC annual limits and estimated spillover as per current trend. January 2012 movement will be solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake enough buffer demand for FY 2012. At this time, our gut feeling is that movement can be as big as 1-3.5 months in January 2012 visa bulletin before we may see retrogression. In successive bulletins (Feb-Mar 2012) dates may stall or even retrogress (exception is H.R. 3012). We will be more confident on Jan VB after release of this month’s demand data.
Note – Predictions
are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain
of salt.
Sunday, November 20, 2011
EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand Estimation from I-485 Receipt Data
Posted On Sunday, November 20, 2011 by Rav | 17 comments |
We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover. Please note PWMB demand is only upto cut-off date of 15 April 2007 that last became current until September 2011.
We used I-485 Performance data from USCIS website to estimate representation of Employment-Based cases from the total I-485 cases filed at USCIS service centers. Please note that all the listed cases are filed at Texas Service Center or Nebraska Service Center as per instruction on I-485 form. Family-Based I-485 Cases are filed at Chicago Lock Box and then respectively forwarded to local field offices for processing.
Based on above data, we can safely assume that from time to time Employment-Based Category representation is around 27% of total I-485 cases received at USCIS Service Centers (TSC and NSC). Now if we assume that this percent representation also held true during June to September 2011, we can use I-485 Receipt data to estimate roll-over demand from EB1 and EB2-ROW to FY 2011, and calculate PWMB cases upto 15 April 2007 that will become documentarily qualified now until January 2012 which will take visa allocations from FY 2012.
Using assumption of 27%, we estimated that out of 73900 I-485 cases received by USCIS, atleast 19,953 cases were filed in Employment-Based category. We then used data from trackitt.com to get distribution of I-485 cases filed since June 2011 to September 2011 at USCIS. Some assumptions were made for EB2-IC representation on trackitt compared to other categories. Distribution for each assumption is tabulated below.
We can arrive at similar demand for PWMB upto 15 April 2007 after using I-485 inventory released data until October 2011. Estimation comes around 4,136 + 8,965 - 8,000 = 5,101. In reality actual numbers can be less but we should still keep track of PWMB cases from FY 2011 that still are not approved at USCIS. Approvals on trackitt look far less than hoped for. Although we still believe some movement may happen for EB2-IC in next bulletin but outlook for EB2-IC based on spillover looks less optimistic. Only reason we believe some more movement may happen is because this is first year when USCIS wlll really have to approve total 140K - CP cases in an year (apart from HR 3012 scenario). So far USCIS always relied on pre-adjudicated cases to reach their annual target. More cases pending at USCIS means more clean cases ready by end of the year for approvals. In case such approvals are not possible then CP cases are only hope for DOS.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Visa Bulletin - December 2011
Posted On Thursday, November 10, 2011 by Rav | 92 comments |
December 2011 Visa Bulletin for the FY 2012 was released today. December visa bulletin brought 4.5 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories., thus moving it to the most favorable cur-off dates ever. EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P moving by 3 weeks. EB3-India and China moved as expected. All other categories are current as expected. Family Based category saw some movement.
Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
- EB-1 remains current across the board.
- EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines. EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by four and a half (4.5) months to March 15, 2008.
- EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only three (3) weeks to January 15, 2006, EB-3 China moves forward by two (2) weeks to September 8, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by only one (1) week to August 1, 2002.
- The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by one and a half (1.5) months for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to January 1, 2006. It also moves forward by five (5) weeks for India to July 22, 2002.
Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the December 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:- FB1 moves forward (again, for third consecutive month). FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to September 1, 2004. FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 8, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by three (3) weeks to March 1, 1997.
- FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to March 22, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by two (2) months to February 8, 2009.
- FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to August 15, 2003. FB2B Mexico remains unchanged at November 22, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to August 15, 2001.
VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
No Notes
EB Categories
No Notes
Demand Data Comparison for December & November 2011 Visa Bulletin Movement
EB3-ROW-M-P Future Movement
EB3-ROW-M-P moved to cut-off date of 15 January 2006 as expected based on current demand and available visas used on monthly basis. I do not want to sound like a broken record, but there is always some hidden demand and other regularly old PD cases that continuously become documentarily qualified, thus receiving visas from the monthly allocation. Some of these cases are old and are captured in I-485 pending inventory. On average 1500-1600 demand is generally reduced on a monthly basis from the available inventory. With the released I-485 pending inventory and recently released demand data, it is becoming more and more obvious that cut-off dates for FY 2012 for this category may not cross 01 August 2006. We will keep an eye on the demand data but anything more than this is less plausible so far.
EB3-India & China Future Movement
EB3-India will continue to move 1 week in each visa bulletin. There could be some substantial movement later in the year but so far this will be the trend. EB3-China is difficult to predict due to high consular processing demand but we expect it to move and cross into PD 2005 for this fiscal year.
EB2-India & China Movement
Dates for EB2-IC has crossed into cut-off date of March 2008. It is impressive to see that Mr. Oppenheim is taking different approach this year and we should applaud him for his efforts. Since Mr. Oppenheim is taking different course for FY 2012, we believe that we should also keep our dogmatic approach to number crunching away for sometime until it make sense to do so. We should try to speculate what can happen in next few bulletins and successive months from their until summer 2012. We may be 'out to lunch' with this approach but can very well veer back to number crunching if this does not make sense in next few bulletins.
We believe retrogression is imminent in summer 2012; only exception will be HR 3012 if it will become a law by that time. We know that current movement upto March 2008 from 15 April 2007(Sep VB date) would easily bring demand that could end up using around 28K-30K visas from 140,000 available EB category visas. These are definitely in par with what we would usually see year-to-year with EB2-IC spillover + 5600 annual limits.
Question is so what can we expect from Mr. Oppenheim hereon? Firstly, we can say he has no clue that what real demand is due to such movement and lets presume he might not get hold off this until next two months ( that too only if he decides to persuade USCIS to tell him the numbers based on receipts issued).In reality, he may have to wait for real count on demand until April-May 2012 when such cases will start to become documentarily qualified and USCIS will start requesting for visa numbers.
That said, Mr. Oppenheim may not still be done with intaking more applications for this fiscal year. First, based on past year trend on visa use, monthly demand and estimations, EB2-IC had always moved around 11 months each year. By moving dates upto March 2008, he had just covered those bases. But still he does not know what would happen with HR 3012, whether it will pass with effective date of 01 September 2011. We know from our estimation on this bill, that cut-off dates until PD June 2008 would easily be current if this bill is passed. With approximation on fall-outs due to unforeseen reason, we can expect PD July-August 2008 to be current. If Mr. Oppenheim will stop such movement from next visa bulletin, he may miss that window on keeping cases ready for adjudication in case HR 3012 will become a law as he mentioned in previous bulletin that it can take 4-6 months to get these cases adjudicated. As I mentioned ,this is a speculation and I may be out to lunch but we believe in coming bulletin(s), EB2-IC dates may move all the way from June 2008-August 2008. Once, DOS will have enough applications in hand, it will be pretty straight forward for DOS to retrogress EB2-IC or EB2-ROW in summer 2012, whatever is appropriate based on fate of the bill.
Now who can expect Green Card for FY 2012? and how will dates retrogress? One thing to keep in mind with USCIS is that they will approve cases randomly usually based on month of filings, regardless of Priority Date. Now since most of the July 2007 backlog is cleared, I believe in 4 to 6 months when such cases will start becoming documentarily qualified, we will start to see approvals. Usually in such case, application filed at NSC will have upper hand compared to TSC filings due to vast difference in processing times. Generally during these months of the year, TSC will only approve 6000-8000 cases and NSC will approve around 10,000 cases consistently. So please do not be surprised if NSC case that become current in December bulletin will see approval before November bulletin cases. This is very common with USCIS. Approvals will be random. File your cases as perfect as possible so that you do not receive RFEs. In general, FY 2012 for EB2-IC will be exceptional with respect to approvals, with dates all over from August 2007 PD to March 2008 PD getting randomly approved. Once DOS will feel that enough visa numbers are used for EB2-IC based on EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, at that time dates may retrogress upto PD 01 Sep 07- 01 Nov 07. This is when we will start to see some huge numbers in demand data and we can go back to our number crunching and predictions based on calculations. For some time we believe VB movement and approvals at USCIS will be random.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Visa Bulletin Predictions from Mr. Charles Oppenheim & More...
Posted On Thursday, October 27, 2011 by Rav | 56 comments |
US Non-Immigrants Blog - Immigration News Update
27 October 2011
These are many things that are currently happening at the EB category level. We would like to capture our take and analysis in this article.
____________________________________________________
Visa Bulletin Predictions from Mr. Charles Oppenheim
Capital Immigration Law Group and others law firms recently met with Charles Oppenheim in Washington, DC. Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. For many, he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards. He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month.
Capital Immigration Law Group’s summary from meeting with Mr. Oppenheim’s
Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based
Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months. Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.
EB-2 China and EB-2 India. These two categories are where the most action is going to be over the next few months. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he expects to be able to advance EB-2 China and India significantly over the next few visa bulletins. It is possible that the December 2011 Visa Bulletin would advance EB-2 India and China to at least March 1, 2008 or even further. Similar forward movement may be expected in the January 2012 and February 2012 Visa Bulletins. Mr. Oppenheim cautioned, however, that if there is high demand (number of filings) in the EB-2 category, he may hold or even retrogress towards the summer of 2012. He noted that there is usually a 4-6 month gap between filing of an I-485 adjustment application and when a visa number is actually requested and allocated — this means that EB-2 India and China I-485 applications filed in the fall will be need visa numbers in spring/summer of 2012 and this is when retrogression may happen.
EB-3 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to move gradually slightly forward for the next few visa bulletins — anticipated forward movement of 3 to 4 weeks per month.
EB-3 China. This category is expected to move slowly forward – by 1-3 weeks per month for the next few months.
EB-3 India. Unfortunately, this category is, according to Mr. Oppenheim, “ridiculously oversubscribed” and forward movement, if any, will be very slow. This category is expected to remain unchanged or to move very slowly forward (by a 1-2 weeks or so). This is mainly caused by the fact that there are simply too many EB-3 India applicants waiting for a visa number to become available. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that since the summer of 2007, no new EB-3 India cases have been filed and there is a significant number of EB-3 India candidates waiting for the priority dates to move forward.
Our take
EB-2 China and EB-2 India.- After such estimation from Mr. Charlie Oppenheim, it is clear that we will see cut-off date of 01 March 2008 or better pretty soon.
Previously this was analyzed in detail herein, and is now currently summarized below for reference.
"Demand Data for EB2-IC reduced by 5400 compared to last month to account for movement upto July 15th 2007 in October Visa Bulletin. This reduction in demand allowed DOS to move dates to 01 Nov 2007 for the current bulletin. We expect that total movement for this month could bring in 13,976 (inclusive 2,675 from demand data) demand. So far for last two months, USCIS would eventually see demand around 5400+13976 = 19,376 once these applications would convert into documentary qualified applications. Out of these, 8,000 is known demand upto July 2007. As we all know, DOS will not be able to sustain this ready-to-use demand for long time unless it will retrogress dates next visa bulletin or eventually start using quarterly spillover.I have a very strong feeling that DOS really want to use quarterly spillover, and hence we are not seeing many EB2-IC approvals from TSC yet. So far, NSC is in par with the EB1 and EB2-ROW demand but TSC still have some catching up to do in this regard. Once EB2-ROW and EB1 demand is satisfied, apparently it will be easy for USCIS/DOS to rationalize use of left over quarterly visas as spillover. Mr. Oppenheim clearly mentioned in the visa bulletin that some more significant movement in expected during this fiscal year before he will decide to pull the plug. Total visa demand for EB2-IC that he may have in mind can be any where from 25000-30000 including annual visa quota. We already know 19,376 is already taken care of and atleast 5600 - 10,600 more intake is expected for this year at some point. In terms of cut-off dates this means, we can see January 2008 - April 2008 current anytime.It is difficult to guess when such movement will happen but atleast 3-6 months total movement in one or two steps is expected. Such movement for December or January visa bulletin cannot be discarded at this time although current bulletin clearly mentioned such movement should not be expected as a norm on monthly basis. Eventually when dates will retrogress, it is expected to reach June 2007 PD in worst case. We still believe for current fiscal year November 2007 will receive green card and December 2007-January 2008 will be on the edge. Individuals with PD from Jan- June 2008 can expect EAD, with June 2008 having slim chance and March 2008 best"
EB-3 (ROW-M-P) - Based on Mr. Oppenheim's estimation and data from currently released October 2011 I-485 pending inventory report, we expect dates for EB3-ROW-M-P to atleast reach PD July 2006-September 2006 in FY 2012. EB3-P demand is high for calendar year 2006 which may restrict cut-off date movement . Realistically, August 2006 is still plausible.
EB3-India is expected to reach 08 November 2002 by end of FY 2012.
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October 2011 I-485 Pending Inventory Released
Source - USCIS
USCIS yesterday released I-485 pending inventory upto 01 October 2011. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a quick summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to previous inventories,
EB1 demand : In general, EB1 is highly backlogged with atleast 14072 applications still pending at Service Centers. This is high when compared year-to-year to similar inventories previously released in October 2010 and August 2009. Generally with start of an each fiscal year, such pending numbers were within 5000-8000. This backlog is highly affected by Kazarian Memo and with time can affect spillover to EB2 category if such demand or backlog would continuously grow for rest of the year.
EB2-ROW-M-P demand - When compared to previous some inventories year to year (or quarter to quarter) current inventory for this category stands at least 20% higher. If such demand is maintained for rest of the year, spillover received will be minimum from this category. It is estimated that EB2-IC received atleast 6000 unused visa numbers from this category in FY 2011. At current rate, such numbers can be as low as 1000-2000,
EB2-IC demand - From October 2010 to October 2011, reduction in inventory for this category is 27386. We should note that last year EB2-I used it's annual limit of 2803 just to satisfy porting demand. Adding these two together, we can say 30,189 visas were used alone for EB2-IC; which also matches closely to our estimated (spillover + annual limit) for FY 2011. Estimated worst-case pending PWMB + new porting still pending at USCIS from the inventory is around 4067 = 8965 + 3102 - 8000
EB3- ROW demand - Inventory for EB3-ROW matches closely with demand data last released for November visa bulletin. As mentioned before that year to year inventory for EB3-ROW does not make sense as some so called 'hidden demand' always appear. We will expect to see atleast PD July 2006 for FY 2012 due to high EB3-P demand of 7725 for CY 2006. Please note that CP demand for EB3-P is not included in this inventory. In past such demand were as high as 30% for CP cases.
EB3- India - Inventory for EB3-India compared to last fiscal year reduced by 4884 (2803 annual limit + 2081 estimated porting and/or case abandonment upto January 2003 ). Minimum movement around 08 November 2002 is expected. Movement can be little more if more folks from November-December 2002 will port for this year.
EB4- demand - Last year, EB4 demand was high or at par, and hence no spillover was received from this category. Demand for this category looks 50% less compared to last year. This category should be followed closely for rest of the year. Some spillover may be possible from this category.
EB5- demand - EB5 demand is similar level as last year and may yield around 3000-4000 unused visa numbers if similar demand is seen in FY 2012.
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H.R. 3012 approved by the Judiciary Committee and Moved to House Floor
The Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, H.R. 3012, was introduced by Representative Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) on September 22, 2011 and was approved today by judiciary committee for consideration in chamber. Please see below the steps that bill has to undergo before becoming a law. Bill has currently completed Step 6 (see below). The effect of this bill on different EB categories will be presented once bill is passed and becomes a law.
The bill aims to eliminate per-country visa limits, which are currently causing severe backlogs in green card. As of right now, the Immigration and Nationality Act allows for only 140,000 employment-based visas to be allocated each year. At present, the percentage of visas that can be allocated to any one country is capped at 7% percent of all of the employment-based visas available.
Under the Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act, , the per-country limit on employment-based visas would be eliminated by 2015 after a 3 year phase-in period. During the 3 year transition, the vast majority of Employment Based visas would be allocated on first-in-first out basis in order to eliminate the current backlogs. In FY 2012, backlogged countries would receive unreserved visas - 85% of the visa allocation. In FY 2013 and FY 2014 they would receive 90% of the visa allocations.
How a Bill Becomes Law?
There are potentially 10 steps a bill can go through before becoming a law. Below is a description of each step in the process, using the Genetic Information Non-Discrimination Act of 2003 (S. 1053), as an example.
Step 1: A Bill Is Born
Anyone may draft a bill; however, only members of Congress can introduce legislation, and, by doing so, become the sponsor(s). The president, a member of the cabinet or the head of a federal agency can also propose legislation, although a member of Congress must introduce it.
Step 2: Committee Action
As soon as a bill is introduced, it is referred to a committee. At this point the bill is examined carefully and its chances for passage are first determined. If the committee does not act on a bill, the bill is effectively "dead."
Step 3: Subcommittee Review
Often, bills are referred to a subcommittee for study and hearings. Hearings provide the opportunity to put on the record the views of the executive branch, experts, other public officials and supporters, and opponents of the legislation.
Step 4: Mark up
When the hearings are completed, the subcommittee may meet to "mark up" the bill; that is, make changes and amendments prior to recommending the bill to the full committee. If a subcommittee votes not to report legislation to the full committee, the bill dies. If the committee votes for the bill, it is sent to the floor.
Step 5: Committee Action to Report a Bill
After receiving a subcommittee's report on a bill the full committee votes on its recommendation to the House or Senate. This procedure is called "ordering a bill reported."
Step 6: Voting
After the debate and the approval of any amendments, the bill is passed or defeated by the members voting.
Step 7: Referral to Other Chamber
When the House or Senate passes a bill, it is referred to the other chamber, where it usually follows the same route through committee and floor action. This chamber may approve the bill as received, reject it, ignore it, or change it.
Step 8: Conference Committee Action
When the actions of the other chamber significantly alter the bill, a conference committee is formed to reconcile the differences between the House and Senate versions. If the conferees are unable to reach agreement, the legislation dies. If agreement is reached, a conference report is prepared describing the committee members' recommendations for changes. Both the House and Senate must approve the conference report.
Step 9: Final Action
After both the House and Senate have approved a bill in identical form, it is sent to the president. If the president approves of the legislation, he signs it and it becomes law. Or, if the president takes no action for ten days, while Congress is in session, it automatically becomes law. If the president opposes the bill he can veto it; or if he takes no action after the Congress has adjourned its second session, it is a "pocket veto" and the legislation dies.
Step 10: Overriding a Veto
If the president vetoes a bill, Congress may attempt to "override the veto." If both the Senate and the House pass the bill by a two-thirds majority, the president's veto is overruled and the bill becomes a law.