November 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

November Visa Bulletin will be the second bulletin for FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for November 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

November 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions

Visa Bulletin - October 2011

October 2011 Visa Bulletin which is the first Visa Bulletin for the current FY 2012 was released on Friday. The major surprise for the October visa bulletin was the 3 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories. This movement came as surprise for many people. DOS took this step to gauge demand for  FY 2012 as cut-off dates for  EB2-IC is  now reaching the latest PD of July 2007 that was ever current. EB3 categories advanced as expected, as of now there is no deviation from our estimation. Family Based category also saw some interesting movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 saw some interesting movement.: EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current while EB-2 China and EB-2 India moved to July 15, 2007.
• EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by two (2) weeks to December 08 , 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by three (3) weeks to August 08, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by one (1) week to July 15, 2002.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by six (6) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to September 15, 2005.  It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to June 8, 2002

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 moves forward (finally!).  FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by six (6) weeks to June 15, 2004.   FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to March 22, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by a little over two (2) months to January 8, 1997.
• FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to January 8, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by three (3) weeks to October 15, 2008.
• FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to July 15, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by three (3) weeks to November 22, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to May 1, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

 

FB Categories

Worldwide dates:

F1: three to six weeks
F2A:three to six weeks
F2B:one to two weeks
F3: one to two weeks
F4: up to one month

Please be advised that the above date ranges are only estimates for the next few months, and are subject to fluctuations in demand.

EB Categories

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current
China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

Mexico: Current
Philippines: Current

Employment Third:

Worldwide: up to one month
China: one to three weeks
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: up to one month
Philippines: up to one month

Employment Fourth: Current
Employment Fifth: Current

Please be advised that the above date ranges are only estimates for the next few months, and are subject to fluctuations in demand. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.

EB2-India & China Movement 

It is very apparent from the statement in Visa Bulletin that this unexpected movement for EB2-IC category is to allow intake of new demand in order to keep cases already pre-adjudicated and documentarily qualified for next spillover season in FY 2012. CP demand for this category is minimal (around 2-5%) and majority of approval usually comes  from  those approved at USCIS. Current movement of 3 months would make atleast 6164 already pending applicants current for EB2-IC category, and this at the same time will bring in lot of applications from those who missed their filing during July 2007 fiasco (PWMBs). Estimated PWMBs to apply after October 2011 could be anywhere from 3500-4000 (including dependents).

Visa Bulletin mentions "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year". We expect dates to progress or stand still atleast for Q1 FY 2012 before it could retrogress in Q2 FY 2012 if needed. Mr. Oppenheim has followed similar steps last year for Family Based category before he retrogressed that category in January 2011.

 

We understand that this whole movement is to gauge the demand and to keep cases ready for approval, but what's ambiguous to everyone is how USCIS/DOS is expecting to approve these many cases that are made current. In addition to those now ready to be approved, we have PWMBs who have filed in May-August 2011, that are expected to become documentarily qualified in Q1 FY 2012. PWMBs who will file on and after October 2011 are not expected to become documentarily qualified until Q2 FY 2012.

Million dollar question is how do we expect visa numbers to become available to approve these cases? EB2- India and China only have 2803 per country limit. In addition, there are restrictions on number of visas that can be used each quarter from the annual limit. Only way we see these cases to get approved is through quarterly spillover.  Below we have done quick calculations to estimate EB1 and EB2-ROW demand that could become documentarily qualified in Q4 FY 2011 or early Q1 FY 2012. If similar trend will continues, we expect similar demand to come in each month for Q1 FY 2012 even after few approvals in Q4 FY 2011. 

Click Image to View

From Q3 PERM approvals, we can also estimate what EB2-ROW demand will be. Around 3189 EB2-ROW PERMs were approved in Q3 FY 2011, that are expected to become documentarily qualified on I-140 approval during Q4 FY 2011 and Q1 FY 2012.

Click Image to view

Looking at above table, we can expect anything around 4425 as quarterly spillover which in addition of 1400 EB2-IC quota can allow atleast 5825 approvals. Based on this it is very unlikely that all those who became current in October 2011 visa bulletin can expect approvals in October. Approvals will come slowly but please do not be surprised if few of your SR request would come back with tag "waiting for visa numbers". It is difficult to guess how USCIS will handle approvals but it is very likely that those becoming documentarily qualified through June-July filings may see approvals before those who became current in October VB. This way when DOS will ever retrogress in Q2 FY2012, DOS will not have to retrogress dates by lot . This would help them keep their books look clean. Use of available visa numbers will be at USCIS/DOS discretion and policy.Time will tell. In past some of the October VB approvals also came from unused visa numbers from last fiscal year.

Finally, what would be enough demand for Mr Oppenheim to consider retrogression of EB2-IC? This totally depend upon DOS. Best guess would be anywhere from November 2007-March 2008 (18000-30000 new demand). We still expect PD November 2007 to receive GC for sure in FY 2012. We believe it will take long time for all new PWMBs and post July 2007 filings  to become documentarily qualified and get counted towards monthly demand data. As per current visa bulletin, it seems this movement will continue for some time, atleast until January-February 2012 before we can see retrogression. Again, with DOS all is at will

Demand Data - October 2011 Visa Bulletin

Demand Data used for October 2011 Visa Bulletin cut-off date determination is captured here in.

 

October 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

October Visa Bulletin will be the first bulletin for FY 2012. As with every October visa bulletin for new fiscal year, retrogression can never be discounted. Here is the prediction for October 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.

Visa Bulletin - September 2011

September 2011 Visa Bulletin which is the last Visa Bulletin for the current FY2011 fiscal year was released yesterday. The major disappointment for the September visa bulletin was the lack of any movement in the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, which have moved significantly over the past few months. Surge in EB1 and EB2-ROW demand for the last quarter was the main reason for no movement in this category. If porting numbers and PWMBs are not huge, we expect no or slow movement in this category starting October 2011 for FY 2012. Please see table below on to estimate how slow movement can be. EB2-China will progress much quicker than EB2-India.

 EB3 India saw major movement of 5 weeks due to reduction in the demand data by 725 compared to August visa bulletin demand data. Movement was based on 588 (for June) + 168 visa numbers (from 01 July 2002 - 08 July 2002). Movement due to reduction in demand data upto PD 1 January 2003, caused due to porting is not an appropriate way of progressing dates for EB3-India . In reality, reduction in demand could be across the board for PD 01 June 2002 - 31 December 2002. If this is true, then we fear that EB3-India may not see any movement for Q1 FY 2012. Though it is unclear now but stall or little retrogression for EB3-India in Q1 cannot be discounted. We will need to observe VB movement closely for this category in FY 2012.

EB3-ROW-M-P will continue to move slowly but steadily for next visa bulletin. We will work on new article for What to expect for EB3-ROW-M-P in FY 2012.

EB3-China will continue to move slowly for FY 2012 due to high CP demand.

Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the September 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 remains unchanged across the board: EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current while EB-2 China and EB-2 India are unchanged at April 15, 2007.
• EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to November 22 , 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by only one (1) week to July 15, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by five (5) weeks to July 8, 2002.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged at  April 22, 2003 for China and at June 1, 2002 for India.  It moves forward by three (3) months to August 1, 2005 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.

Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the September 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 remains unchanged (again) for ROW, China and India at May 1, 2004.   It moves forward by one (1) week to March 15, 1993 for Mexico.  It also moves forward by 6.5 months to November 1, 2006 for for Philippines.
• FB2A moves forward by over four (4) months to December 1, 2008 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by less than four (4) months to September 22, 2008.
• FB2B ROW, China and India remains unchanged at July 1, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by one (1) month to November 1, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by over (3) months to March 22, 2001.

We continue to see the FB2A category move forward, after the significant retrogression over the past several months – this month by four weeks.   Unfortunately, due to strong demand, FB1 category remains unchanged, for a fourth month in a row, after it retrogressed by 8 months during the April 2011 Visa Bulletin.  This is due to heavy demand in the FB1 category which is expected to continue and further lack of movement (or backward movement) in FB1 is possible.
 

Demand Data used for September 2011 VIsa Bulletin

Demand Data that will be used to estimate cut-off dates for September 2011 Vssa Bulletin was released today. Please see cumulative difference in Demand Data for August  and September 2011 visa bulletin below. Please note that EB3-P demand data for September visa bulletin data is no different than June 2011 Demand Data.

Based on the difference here we can expect following movement for the last visa  bulletin for the current fiscal year.

• EB3 category for ROW/M/P should reach anywhere from 22 Nov 2005 - 08 Dec 2005. Earlier statement made about EB3-P trailing EB3-ROW may not come true for next few months as DOS has not updated numbers for EB3-P since June 2011 Demand data. This suggests that for some more time EB3-P will move with EB3-ROW-M.

• EB2 category demand is exactly that would be required to clear backlog until July 2007 fiasco. 8000 more visa numbers will take EB2-IC cut-off date to 15 August 2007. We will still like to stick to our estimate of 15 June 2007 (+/- 1 week). Spillover used so far without annual limit for EB2-IC this year is 25,325.

• For EB2- IC demand data show CP cases post 2007. Numbers are only few hundred to account for. Do not know if it is still worthwhile to make major movement and overwhelm USCIS for PD beyond July 2007 unless strategy is to get some inventory for next year. This will be done most probably next fiscal year depending upon where dates will end up for this visa bulletin.

• EB3 -I demand reduced by 6400 -733 (visas used for movement for the Aug) ~ 5675. EB3-I cut-off date can be anywhere from 8 June 2002 - 15 June 2002.

• EB3-China can reach anywhere from 22 July 2004 – 01 Aug 2004

Click Image to Enlarge

Click Image to Enlarge

August 2011 Visa Bulletin and Estimation for September 2011

August 2011 Visa Bulletin was released  yesterday For Employment-Based category, EB-3 overall saw some movement in cut-off dates for each country. EB2 is current for all other countries except India and China. EB-2 India-China advanced to 15th April 2007. EB1, EB4 and EB5 are still current. Some movement for Family-Based categories overall.

Family-Based

• Family 1st – FB1 remains unchanged across all regions at May 1, 2004 for ROW, China and India, at March 8, 1993 for Mexico and at April 15, 1996 for Philippines.
• Family 2A –FB2A moves forward by four (4) months to July 22, 2008 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by four and a half (4.5) months to June 1, 2008.
• Family 2B – FB2B ROW, China and India remains unchanged at July 1, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by only one (1) week to October 1, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to December 1, 2000..
• Family 3rd – most countries moved to August 2001; Philippines  to November 1992; Mexico retrogressed to April 1992.
• Family 4th – most countries moved to April 2000; Philippines stalled at 15 May 1988; Mexico stalled at March 1996.

Employment-Based

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current while EB-2 China and EB-2 India both move forward by almost five (5) weeks to April 15, 2007.
• EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to November 1 , 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by only one (1) week to July 8, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by one (1) month to June 1, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico moves forward by over five (5) months to November 1, 2005.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by over five (5) months to May 1, 2005 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.  It moves forward by one  (1) month to June 1, 2002 for India .
• Employment 4th – still current in all categories
• Employment 5th – still current in all categories

VISA AVAILABILITY Notes from August Visa Bulletin

Family-sponsored: Heavy applicant demand for numbers in the Family First preference could require retrogression of some of the September Family First preference cut-off dates. This action may be necessary to keep visa issuances within the respective annual preference numerical limits. If this were to occur they could be expected to return to the previous cut-off date for October, the first month of the new fiscal year.

Employment-based: No Notes !!!!


Determination of annual limit for this fiscal year
 
The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Sections 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On June 9th, USCIS provided the required data to VO. (Also hints why no demand data was released, since complete data from CIS was received on June 9th and July bulletin was released on June 8th.)

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2011 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2011 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 140,000

Under INA Section 202(a), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2011 the per-country limit is 25,620. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,320.

Our Analysis on EB Category after August Visa Bulletin Release

EB3-ROW-M-P - EB3 ROW moved by three weeks to November 01, 2005. As seen with last few months, EB3-ROW only used 1500 visas from the visible demand. EB3-Mexico has utilized 5085 visa numbers for this year and has reached same level as EB3-ROW-P. Going forward EB3-ROW-M-P will move together. Since EB-3 category will not receive any spillover, we expect EB3-M-P to move by 4 weeks to 01 December 2005 for this fiscal year. This movement is based on at least 3188  (ROW-2584 +  M-304 + P-300 ) available visa numbers for EB3-ROW-M-P together. Please note, since each of these countries shares sames cut-off date, going forward for next month at least, they will share same cut-off date.

EB3-India - EB3 India moved one month due to decrease in demand due to porting case. Decrease in demand was 500. This along with monthly limit of 233, allowed total movement of 733 (Inventory upto May - Inventory upto April = 2710-2050). Even if there is no further reduction in demand due to porting, we still expect EB3-India to reach 15th June 2002 for this fiscal year just using 233 number of visas.


EB3-China - EB3-China may only move by a week or two for the coming bulletin. It is difficult to gauge movement for EB3-China due to high volume of invisible CP demand.

EB2-India  &  China - We believe EB2 India and China advanced to 15 April 2007 by utilizing at least 2580 additional unused visa numbers from EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5.

Number of applicants from 08March07 to 15April07 

[26469 + (28498-26469)/2] - [24383 + (26469 – 24383)/4 ]

= 27484 – 24904

= 2580

Till date visas used for this movement

= 22,875 (used upto 08Mar07)  + 5,600 (annual quota) + 2,580 (used in this bulletin)

= 31,055

At this point of time we would like to revisit our potential spillover source for the current fiscal year. We know that EB1 was suppose to give us 12,000 unused visa. It was never clear to us whether it was  a half-yearly or full-yearly projected numbers. After June 2011 released inventory, EB2-ROW was projected to have demand around 26,600 - 28,600 annual, yielding around 6000-8000 unused visa numbers. As per recent released EB5 visa usage number, it was quoted that EB5 demand can be as high as 4,260, thus yielding only 9,400 4230 = 5170 unused visa numbers. So putting these together with 5,600 annual quota for EB2-IC, available visas for EB2-IC becomes

EB1 + EB2-ROW + EB5 + EB2-IC annual quota

= 12000 + 8000 + 5170 +5600

= 30,770

Now from this, all we can conclude is  for EB1, 12K was a projected demand for half year, but  real demand did not convert into 24K. On average, we were hoping to get more 6K from EB1.  But  looking at the current movement, numbers expected now can be anywhere from 3K-6K. Of these expected EB1 numbers, we have already used 500 (31,055 - 30,770).

EB5 usage has been  a very big disappointment (or tough one to digest) for this year ; instead of yielding 7000 unused visa, it would only yield(ed) 5170 visas.

Taking EB1 and EB5 demand into account, worst case movement for September bulletin will be based on use of 2,500 unused visa numbers while best case could be around the use of 5,500 unused visa numbers.

Once date will reach July 2007, new cases, PWMBs and some porting will slow down the movement for Q1 and early Q2. Like this year, we can expect significant movement of priority dates in late Q2 or early Q3 of FY 2012. Movement upto first quarter of 2008 is possible with some retrogression in late Q3. We should remember NVC fee bill is valid upto one year.

Update from www.mitbbs.com

On 18th July there was some update on this site that where they mentioned that someone talked to Mr. Oppenheim through FOIA  or other means (please excuse my translation) and he mentioned that up until now only 121000 visas were used for EB category and at least 19k is still to be used in coming months.

The news on 19K visas available was confirmed in two ways as below

Method A

As per recent data released by USCIS until March 2011 for I-485- Employment Based.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf

I-485 Employment Adjustment upto March 2011 approvals are 45,981. At this rate , aprovals for I-485 for full year becomes, 91,962. Adding unused visa numbers used so far, total EB visas used for this year becomes 91962+30000 (SO used so far) = 121,962. So atleast 19K looks is still left from whole fiscal year. This suggest published information on www.mitbbs.com is very authentic and we might have anywhere from 12k-19k total EB visas avaiable for EB category for September.No CP demand included.


Method B

As per data that was released by USCIS day before yesterday -http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Application-for-Benefits/applications-for-benefits-2011-may.pdf , it suggests total I-485 application to adjust status received until May 2011 are 47,721.

Based on previously released USCIS Approval/Receipt information until March 2011;

I-485 Approved were – 45,981
I-485 Received were – 36,492
Approval/Receipt ratio – 1.26

Assuming same ratio for this newly released data until May 2011 – Approvals can be near – 1.26 x 47,721 = 60,128.This is for 8 months. 

For full year FY2011 – it becomes 12 x 60,128/8 = 90,192.

Again adding spillover used so far, total consumption becomes = 90,192 + 30,000 = 120,192

So visas available for September bulletin, again becomes 140,000 – 120,192 ~ 19K.

Other way to validate 19K news from www.mitbbs.com

Note - It does not include CP demand.

Out of these 19K how much can we expect for EB2-IC?

In above calculations we have not included any CP demand in this. CP demand can be anywhere from 5%-15%. Taking 5%, CP demand will make these 121,000 used EB visa number for FY 2011 until now to 127,000 visas used for EB category after including AOS + CP demand.

Then we should also remember that as per released USCIS data, I-140 stats until March 2011 suggests that for 42,096 receipts, there were only 30,820 approvals. So even if we assume that this difference was constantly maintained for entire year, there are still chances some of these 12000 would contain EB2-ROWs. Some of these remaining visa numbers from 19K will be used for such cases when they will be approved and become documentarily qualified. Even if 10% of these are EB2-ROW, we can have 1200 demand from EB2-ROW. Then addition to this we also have usual monthly demand for EB2-ROW, which can be anywhere from 500 -1500.

We do not know anything about EB1 demand. At this point when USCIS processing time has reduced to 4 months, we can see some of these EB1s can get attention. These EB1 approvals will take some visa numbers. I think in month of August, we can see many EB1 approvals as movement for EB2-IC is only 5 weeks for August bulletin. In addition with reduced backlog, some good numbers of EB1 approvals are expected in August.

In general EB3 demand for a month can be anywhere from 2400 + 4(233) = 3332.

So now if we will consider all these aspects, what EB2-IC can expect is

= 19000 - (CP + EB2-ROW(due to I-140) + regular EB2-ROW + EB1 + EB3) demand

= 19000 - (6000 + 1200 + 1000 + 1000 + 3332) = 6468

Thus numbers available for EB2-IC can be anywhere from 3500 - 8000. So movement can be anywhere from 1 June 2007 - 15 August 2007. It all depends upon demand for last month and we have no basis to come up with exact numbers.

I have not considered EB4 and EB5, which can take few 20-50 numbers here and there.Other than EB4-EB5, there are some PWMBs and dependents who has filed until July visa bulletin, who can become documentarily qualified by September 30.

EB2-IC September 2011 Priority Date Movement

P.S. - Whenever I have been conservative, we have seen great movement for EB2-IC.. I hope it works out like that this time as well.

Demand Data used for August 2011 VIsa Bulletin

 In order to capture this on the website, we are just posting the Demand Data released for August 2011 Vssa Bulletin in here. Please see cumulative difference in Demand Data for June and August 2011 visa bulletin below. It can give us difference in visa utilization for last two months.

Capturing previous Notes:

• EB3 category for ROW/M/P will reach as predicted.

• EB2 category demand is exactly that would be if you subtract difference of sum for inventory from January 2011 upto March and July 2007. So far spillover used is 22875 excluding 5600 annual quota. Further movement expected is for 10-12 k unused visa numbers. 

• For EB2- IC demand data show CP cases post 2007. Numbers are only few hundred to account for. Do not know if it is still worthwhile to make major movement and overwhelm USCIS for PD beyond July 2007 unless strategy is to get some inventory for next year.

• EB3-I demand post PD 2003 reduced to account for already ported cases. Point is USCIS looking into correct demand for EB3-I as if some chance of spillover to this category. I always thought spillover if available should go to EB3-ROW. But this is first time DOS will run into this.

Click Image to Enlarge

July 2011 Visa Bulletin and EB Category Movement Analysis

July 2011 Visa Bulletin was released today. For Employment-Based category, EB-3 overall saw some movement in cut-off dates for each country. EB2 is current for all other countries except India and China. EB-2 India-China advanced to 08 March 2007. EB1, EB4 and EB5 are still current. Good movement for Family-Based categories overall.

Family-Based

Family 1st – FB1 ROW, China and India remain unchanged at May 1, 2004. FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to March 8, 1993. FB1 Philippines moves forward by two (2 ) months to April 15, 1996.

Family 2A – FB2A moves forward by seven (7) months to

March 22, 2008 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by seven (7) months to February 15, 2008.

Family 2B – FB2B ROW, China and India remain (a

gain) unchanged at April 15, 2003. FB2B Mexico moves forward by three (3) weeks to August 22, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by three (3) months to June 8, 2000.

Family 3rd – most countries advanced to July 2003; Philippines moves to March 1992; Mexico stayed at 15 November 1992.

Family 4th – most countries stalled at January or March 2000; Philippines advanced to 1 5May 1988; Mexico advanced to March 1996.

Employment-Based

Employment 1st – still current in all categories

Employment 2nd – EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current, EB-2 India-China see significant movement to 08 March 2007.

Employment 3rd – EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to October 8, 2005, EB-3 China moves forward by six (6) weeks to July 1, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by one (1) week to May 1, 2002. EB-3 Mexico moves forward by seven (7) months to July 01, 2005.

Employment 3rd (Others)- The “other worker” category remains unchanged at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by one year two (2) weeks to November 22, 2004 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines. It moves forward by one (1) week to May 01, 2002 for India

Employment 4th – still current in all categories

Employment 5th – still current in all categories


VISA AVAILABILITY Notes from June Visa Bulletin

Family-sponsored: For July, F2A numbers EXEMPT from per-country limit are available to applicants from all countries with priority dates earlier than 15FEB08. F2A numbers SUBJECT to per-country limit are available to applicants chargeable to all countries EXCEPT MEXICO with priority dates beginning 15FEB08 and earlier than 22MAR08. (All F2A numbers provided for MEXICO are exempt from the per-country limit; there are no F2A numbers for MEXICO subject to per-country limit.)

Employment-based: No Notes !!!!

Our Analysis on EB Category after July Visa Bulletin Release

EB3-ROW-M-P - EB3 ROW moved by three weeks to October 08, 2005. As seen with last few months, EB3-ROW only used 1400 visas from the visible demand. At this pace EB3-ROW can ONLY reach mid November by September 2011 visa bulletin. Either lot of the annual visa consumption is going into approving monthly cases returned from Local Offices to USCIS or these visas are utilized by EB3-Mexico. So far, for the current year as per I-485 inventory, EB3-Mexico has utilized 4010 visa numbers. These excess visa utilization suggests that either lot of old I-485 cases were denied for Mexico or DOS is trying to use as much visa numbers for EB3-Mexico to bring it to current EB3-ROW-P, PD of 08 October 2005, This way they do not have to worry about 7% utilization of annual cap that is required to maintain status of retrogressed countries going forward for next fiscal year. Other school of thought suggests that EB3-Mexico can also become 'U' for last two months of the quarter. EB3-P will have to move with EB3-ROW, no matter what for rest of the year.

EB2-India & China - EB2 India and China advanced to 08 March 2007 by utilizing at least 10,563 additional unused visa numbers from EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5. It is expected that at this pace dates can reach July 2007 in August visa bulletin. In September bulletin either dates will become current or will move into first quarter of 2008. If available visa are less than 24K-11k(used for this bulletin) = 14K for remaining two months, then DOS can decide to stay put at 01 Aug 07. PWMBs will be enough to consume annual visa numbers for rest of the next fiscal year (not spillover). Chances for latter looks less as DOS would like to build some inventory for themselves to have fair cut-off date projection for next year spillover season. Once again, everyone keep your documents ready. Next two months could be full of roller coaster ride. It all depends if B's would Stanley Cup. (LOL ..just kidding). God Bless!!!

July 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations and as long as EB2-India and China will continue to receive spillover as per INA Section 202(a)(5).

Predictions

• EB3- China could advance to 15 June 2004


• EB3-Philippines could advance to 01 October 2005.
  


• EB3-Mexico could advance to 22 March 2005.


• EB3-ROW could advance to 01 October 2005. (Reason for update)
  

• EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.


• EB3-India could advance to 01 May 2002.

• EB2-India and EB2-China could see movement atleast 01JAN07
  

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

Role of DOS

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category.

The Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division’s main responsibility is the administration of the complex series of annual numerical limitations on immigrant visas, subdivided by preference category and country, which are set by the INA. Where demand exists, DOS goal is to have the issuance level come as close as possible to 100% of the numbers available each year without exceeding the limits that Congress has established. DOS also want to maintain a steady flow of applications throughout the year to ensure appropriate use of government resources and to provide good customer service to applicants. Over the past years, DOS have a proven record of using over 95 percent of the annual worldwide numerical limit.

Role of USCIS
The Department works closely with United States Citizenship and Immigration Service (USCIS) on data exchange to allow for maximum use of numbers under the annual limits, and in a stable, predictable manner. This is extremely important in the Employment based categories, where USCIS currently uses approximately 90 percent of all available visa numbers. Section 203(g) of the INA directs the Secretary of State to make reasonable estimates of anticipated number use in order to maximize number use under annual limits. When making such estimates it is necessary to take into consideration a number of variables based on the best information which is available when those estimates are being made. Should there be a change which could not be anticipated it can have an impact on number use. This makes the determination of the monthly cut-off date particularly difficult at the end of the fiscal year since there is little if any time to make any necessary adjustments. While DOS always strive to reach 100% goal of the numbers allocated, increasing percentage above 95 percent is difficult given that DOS is statutorily barred from exceeding the annual limits.


DOS working with USCIS, Consulates and Embassies
On any given day, immigrant visas are issued at about 130 embassies and consulates overseas. Adjustments of status (which use the same numbers) are granted at about 90 - 100 domestic USCIS offices. The State Department tracks visa number usage and requests from consular sections around the world and USCIS. On a monthly basis the Visa Office determines the number of visas which can be allocated in each visa category and to each country on a worldwide basis. The process developed for managing the numbers throughout the year requires that numbers are made available by adjusting the cutoff date for each category and each country on a monthly basis. Cutoff dates for all countries except China, India, Mexico and the Philippines are currently the same every month in every category. Because demand for numbers exceeds annual per-country numerical limits for these four countries, they have their own cutoff dates in some categories.

The monthly visa bulletin published by the Department and available on website at www.Travel.State.Gov explains the allocation of visa numbers by dates, the laws and the per country and per category limits.

As stated previously, DOS goal is to come as close as possible to the annual limit without exceeding it. The Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division maintains a database containing workload statistics for immigrant visas issued at Foreign Service posts worldwide, and adjustment of status cases at USCIS. DOS authorize numbers for USCIS applications as USCIS request them, usually on a daily basis.

DOS in past has received several inquiries about the allocation of Employment-Based Second Preference visa numbers to India and China. DOS want to make clear that India is not receiving all of the extra numbers. They are also available to China where the applicant’s priority date was earlier than the posted cut-off date and are also available to applicants in any other country with a current priority date and for which the interview is completed and all required clearances received. These numbers are being made available when current indications are that demand from “all other countries” will not be sufficient to utilize all available Employment First and Second preference numbers. Such numbers will be made available, as visa numbers are always provided, in priority date order (the date petition to accord immigrant status was filed with USCIS). India does have a larger number of older petitions pending and therefore is likely to receive a larger number of these visa numbers than China. The Department’s policy of making the extra numbers available in priority date order is mandated by Section 203(e) of the INA. This allocation of numbers based on priority date means that China and India Second preference applicants will be subject to exactly the same cut-off date.

VISA NUMBER Availability and Cut-Off Date Determination for Visa Bulletin

The Department of State is responsible for administering the provisions of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) relating to the numerical limitations on immigrant visa issuances. It is a process that has evolved through the years and will continue to do so as DOS use the best technologies to improve communication with posts, applicants and colleagues at USCIS.

At the beginning of each month, the Visa Office (VO) receives a report from each consular post listing totals of documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants in categories subject to numerical limitation. Cases are grouped in three different categories: 1) foreign state chargeability, 2) preference and 3) priority date.

Foreign state chargeability for visa purposes refers to the fact that an immigrant is chargeable to the numerical limitation for the foreign state or dependent area in which the immigrant's place of birth is located. Exceptions are provided for a child (unmarried and under 21 years of age) or spouse accompanying or following to join a principal to prevent the separation of family members or in a foreign state of which neither parent was a native or resident. Alternate chargeability is desirable when the visa cut-off date for the foreign state of a parent or spouse is more advantageous than that of the applicant's foreign state.

Preference is the visa category that can be assigned as established by the Immigration and Nationality Act based on relationships to U.S. citizens or legal permanent residents. Family based immigration falls under two basic categories: unlimited and limited. Preferences established by law for the limited category are:

Family First Preference (F1): Unmarried sons and daughters of U.S. citizens and their minor children, if any.

Family Second Preference (F2): Spouses, minor children and unmarried sons and daughters of lawful permanent residents.

Family Third Preference (F3): Married sons and daughters of U.S. citizens and their spouses and minor children.

Family Fourth Preference (F4): Brothers and sisters of United States citizens and their spouses and minor children provided the U.S. citizen is at least 21 years of age.

Employment-based immigration also includes preferences; all of them are subject to a limitation.

The Priority Date is normally the date on which the petition to accord the applicant immigrant status was filed, normally with U.S. Citizenship and immigration Service.

Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination
The Department of State Visa Office subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified by the INA into monthly allotments. The totals of documentarily qualified applicants which have been reported to VO are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment. The determination of how many numbers are available requires consideration of several of variables, including: past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements. Once this is done, the cut-off dates are established and numbers are allocated to reported applicants in order of their priority dates, the oldest dates first.

If there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the category is considered "Current". For example: If the monthly allocation target is 10,000 and DOS only have 5,000 applicants the category can be "Current”.

Whenever the total of documentarily qualified applicants in a category exceeds the supply of numbers available for allotment for the particular month, the category is considered to be "oversubscribed" and a visa availability cut-off date is established. The cut-off date is the priority date of the first documentarily qualified applicant who could not be accommodated for a visa number. For example, if the monthly target is 10,000 and DOS have 25,000 applicants, then the goal would be to establish a cut-off date so that only 10,000 numbers would be allocated. In this case, the cut-off in the ideal world would be the priority date of the 10,001st applicant.

Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled to allotment of a visa number. Possible cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of any given month, since the Visa Office groups demand for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh of a month are grouped under the 1st, the eighth through the fourteenth under the 8th, etc.)

The Visa Office attempts to establish the cut-off dates for the following month on or about the 8th of each month. The dates are immediately transmitted to consular posts abroad and the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), and also published in the Visa Bulletin and online at the Bureau of Consular Affairs Web site (www.travel.state.gov).

Visa allotments for use during that month are transmitted to consular posts. USCIS requests visa allotments for adjustment of status cases only when all other case processing has been completed.

CLARIFICATION OF SOME FREQUENTLY MISUNDERSTOOD POINTS

Applicants entitled to immigrant status become “documentarily qualified” to apply for an immigrant visa (meaning they have all their documents necessary for a visa interview and, if approved, for issuance) at their own initiative and convenience. By no means has every applicant with a priority date earlier than a prevailing cut-off date been processed for final visa action. On the contrary, visa allotments are made only on the basis of the total applicants reported documentarily qualified each month. Demand for visa numbers can fluctuate from one month to another, with the inevitable impact on cut-off dates.

If an applicant is reported documentarily qualified but allocation of a visa number is not possible because of a visa availability cut-off date, the demand is recorded at the Visa Office and an allocation is made as soon as the applicable cut-off date advances beyond the applicant's priority date. There is no need for such applicant to be reported a second time.

Visa numbers are always allotted for all documentarily qualified applicants with a priority date before the relevant cut-off date, as long as the case had been reported to the Visa Office in time to be included in the monthly calculation of visa availability. Failure of visa number receipt by the overseas processing office could mean that the request was not dispatched in time to reach the Visa Office for the monthly allocation cycle, or that information on the request was incomplete or inaccurate (e.g., incorrect priority date).

Allocations to Foreign Service posts outside the regular monthly cycle are possible in emergency or exceptional cases, but only at the request of the office processing the case. Note that should retrogression of a cut-off date be announced, the Visa Office can honor extraordinary requests for additional numbers only if the applicant's priority date is earlier than the retrogressed cut-off date.

Not all numbers allocated are actually used for visa issuance; some are returned to VO and are reincorporated into the pool of numbers available for later allocation during the fiscal year. The rate of return of unused numbers may fluctuate from month to month, just as demand may fluctuate. Lower returns mean fewer numbers available for subsequent reallocation.

Fluctuations can cause cut-off date movement to slow, stop, or even retrogress. Retrogression is particularly possible near the end of the fiscal year as visa issuance approaches the annual limitations.

Per-country limit: The annual per-country limitation of 7% is a cap, which Visa issuances to any single country may not exceed. Applicants compete for visas primarily on a worldwide basis. The country limitation serves to avoid monopolization of virtually all the annual limitation by applicants from only a few countries. This limitation is not a quota to which any particular country is entitled, however. A portion of the numbers provided to the Family Second preference category is exempt from this per-country cap.

The American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (AC21) removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.

Applicability of Section 202(e): When visa demand by documentarily qualified applicants from a particular country exceeds the amount of numbers available under the annual numerical limitation, that country is considered to be oversubscribed. Oversubscription may require the establishment of a cut-off date which is earlier than that which applies to a particular visa category on a worldwide basis. The prorating of numbers for an oversubscribed country follows the same percentages specified for the division of the worldwide annual limitation among the preferences. (Note that visa availability cut-off dates for oversubscribed areas may not be later than worldwide cut-off dates, if any, for the respective preferences.)

Visa Bulletin - June 2011

June 2011 Visa Bulletin was released on 12th May 2011. Little movement for Family-Based categories. For Employment-Based category, EB-3 overall saw some movement in cut-off dates for each country. EB2 is current for all other countries except India and China. EB-2 China moves forward by two and a half (2.5) months to October 15, 2006, while EB-2 India moves forward (again, after last month’s notable 7-week advancement) by three and a half (3.5) months to October 15, 2006. EB1, EB4 and EB5 are still current.

Family-Based

Family 1st – FB1 ROW, China and India remain unchanged at May 1, 2004. FB1 Mexico also remains unchanged at March 1, 1993. FB1 Philippines moves forward by seven (7) months to February 22, 1996.

Family 2A – FB2A moves forward by ten (10) weeks to August 22, 2007 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines. FB2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) months to July 22, 2007.

Family 2B – FB2B ROW, China and India remain (again) unchanged at April 15, 2003. FB2B Mexico moves forward by three (3) weeks to August 22, 1992. FB2B Philippines moves forward by three (3) months to June 8, 2000.

Family 3rd – most countries advanced to June 2001; Philippines stayed at February 1992; Mexico stayed at 15 November 1992.

Family 4th – most countries stalled at January or March 2000; Philippines advanced to 1 May 1988; Mexico stayed at February 1996.

Employment-Based

Employment 1st – still current in all categories

Employment 2nd – EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current, EB-2 China moves forward by two and a half (2.5) months to October 15, 2006, while EB-2 India moves forward (again, after last month’s notable 7-week advancement) by three and a half (3.5) months to October 15, 2006.

Employment 3rd – EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to September 15, 2005, EB-3 China moves forward by one (1) month to May 15, 2004, while EB-3 India moves forward by one (1) week to April 22, 2002. EB-3 Mexico moves forward by three (3) months to December 22, 2004.

Employment 3rd (Others)- The “other worker” category remains unchanged at April 22, 2003 for China. It moves forward by two (2) months to November 8, 2003 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines. It moves forward by one (1) week to April 22, 2002 for India

Employment 4th – still current in all categories

Employment 5th – still current in all categories




VISA AVAILABILITY Notes from June Visa Bulletin

Family-sponsored: The extremely high level of demand during the first few months of FY-2011 resulted in the retrogression of most worldwide cut-off dates in January or February. While most of these cut-offs have begun to advance slowly, heavy demand in the Family First preference has caused a further retrogression for May. At this time it is not possible to predict the rate of forward movement, but some movement is anticipated in most categories for the remainder of the fiscal year.

Employment-based:

As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because India had reached its Employment Second annual limit.

Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of the applicant’s chargeability.

Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011.

Demand Data for June 2011 Visa Bulletin & Updated Predictions

Demand data that will be used for June Visa Bulletin has been released. Please see below the cumulative demand reduction from May 2011 to June 2011. Some of these reductions were as predicted and others were less due to hidden demand (usually newly added cases from CP offices and regular transfer of cases from local offices to National Service Center). Negative (-ve) number indicates increase in demand. Based on the currently released demand data, June visa bulletin prediction would change for some country and categories. Please see our updated visa bulletin predictions below.

Cumulative Reduction in Visa Demand from May to June 2011

Predictions

• EB3- China could advance to 01 July 2004


• EB3-Philippines could advance to 22 September 2005. (As EB3-P cannot have cut-off date surpass that of EB3-ROW, predicted cut-off dates are revised)
  


• EB3-Mexico could advance to 15 October 2004.


• EB3-ROW could advance to 22 September 2005. (Due to unknown hidden demand as mentioned above, we have to revise our prediction for EB3-ROW from 1 Oct 2005 to 22 September 2005. Reduction in demand for May was only 1575)
  


• EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.


• EB3-India could advance to 22 April 2002.

• EB2-India would see movement till 15 July 2006 - Since I-485 Inventory suggested that demand for EB2-India from '08 May 06' to '01 July 2006' was 2806 and demand data only reduced by 2875, this suggests that not much upgrade demand was gauged. We still think DOS will be interested in gauging some more demand before moving dates in June visa bulletin by significant amount. We still predict that cut-off dates for EB2-I will move by two weeks and at most by 4-5 weeks. We expect significant movement for EB2-IC in July visa bulletin.
  


• EB2-China could advance to 08 August 2006.

June 2011 Demand Data

May 2011 Demand Data