Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Showing posts with label Employment-Based. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Employment-Based. Show all posts

Saturday, October 22, 2011

December 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Posted On Saturday, October 22, 2011 by Rav 146 comments

December Visa Bulletin will be the third bulletin for FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for December 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.


December 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions
  • EB3- China could advance to 08 September 2004
  • EB3 – ROW, EB3-Philippines, and EB3-Mexico could advance to 15-Jan-2006.
  • EB2 will be current for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.
  • EB3-India could advance to 01 August 2002.
  • EB2-India and EB2-China could see 3-6 months in coming bulletins.  It is not possible to estimate movement for EB2-IC based on available demand and calculations. Movement is solely based on DOS/USCIS’ policy to intake new demand for FY 2012. At this time, total movement as huge as 3-6 months in one or two steps in coming month(s) cannot be discarded before we may see retrogression. In next few bulletins, dates can move anywhere from Jan 2008 – June 2008. Although DOS warned about stall, they may (should) not stall current movement as such movement may not consume visas until these applications will become documentarily qualified.
NotePredictions are based on educated guess and is not guaranteed. Please take it with a grain of salt.















Friday, October 7, 2011

Visa Bulletin - November 2011

Posted On Friday, October 07, 2011 by Rav 103 comments


November 2011 Visa Bulletin  for the FY 2012 was released on Wednesday, October  5th, 2011. November visa bulletin brought 3.5 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories. as hoped in our last prediction  DOS at this point is still in-taking new demand for  FY 2012 as cut-off dates for  EB2-IC has now crossed the latest  and favorable PD of July 2007 that was ever current. EB3 categories advanced as expected with EB3-ROW-M-P still not seeing enough reduction in demand data month-to-month. Family Based category  saw some movement.
Q
Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
  • EB-1 remains current across the board.
  • EB-2 remains current for EB-2 ROW, Mexico and Philippines.   EB-2 India and EB-2 China both move forward by three and a half (3.5) months to November 1, 2007.
  • EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by only two (2) weeks to December 22, 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by two (2) weeks to August 22, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by only one (1) week to July 22, 2002.
  • The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by two (2) months for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to November 15, 2005.  It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to June 15, 2002.


Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:
  • FB1 moves forward (again, for second month).  FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by five (5) weeks to July 22, 2004.   FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to April 1, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by one (1) month to February 8, 1997.
  • FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to February 15, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by six (6) weeks to December 1, 2008.
  • FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to August 1, 2003.  FB2B Mexico remains unchanged at November 22, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by ten (10) weeks to July 15, 2001.

VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
 
FB Categories
No Notes

EB Categories

CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007.  This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices.  While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis.  Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility. 

Demand Data used for November 2011 Visa Bulletin Movement



 


EB2-India & China Movement 

Demand Data for EB2-IC reduced by 5400 compared to last month to account for movement upto July 15th  2007 in October Visa Bulletin. This reduction in demand allowed DOS to move dates to 01 Nov  2007 for  the current bulletin. We expect that total movement for this month could bring in 13,976 (inclusive 2,675 from demand data) demand. So far for last two months, USCIS would eventually see demand around 5400+13976 = 19,376 once these applications would convert into documentary qualified applications. Out of these, 8,000 is known demand upto July 2007. As we all know, DOS will not be able to sustain this ready-to-use demand for long time unless it will retrogress dates next visa bulletin or eventually start using quarterly spillover.  


I have a very strong feeling that DOS really want to use quarterly spillover, and hence we are not seeing many EB2-IC approvals from TSC yet. So far, NSC is in par with the EB1 and EB2-ROW demand but TSC still have some catching up to do in this regard. Once EB2-ROW and EB1 demand is satisfied, apparently it will be easy for USCIS/DOS to rationalize use of left over quarterly visas as spillover. Mr. Oppenheim clearly mentioned in the visa bulletin that some more significant movement in expected during this fiscal year before he will decide to pull the plug. Total visa demand for EB2-IC  that he may have in mind can be any where from 25000-30000 including annual visa quota. We already know 19,376 is already taken care of and atleast 5600 - 10,600 more intake is expected for this year at some point. In  terms of cut-off dates this means, we can see January 2008 - April 2008 current anytime.

It is difficult to guess when such movement will happen but atleast 3-6 months total  movement in one or two steps is expected. Such movement for December or January visa bulletin cannot be discarded at this time although current bulletin clearly mentioned such movement should not be expected as a norm on monthly basis. Eventually when dates will retrogress, it is expected to reach June 2007 PD in worst case. We still believe for current fiscal year November 2007 will receive green card and December 2007-January 2008 will be on the edge. Individuals with PD from Jan- June 2008 can expect EAD, with June 2008 having slim chance and March 2008 best .
Calculations for 19,376 demand

  • EB2-IC PERMs from August 2007 - October 2007 = 4651
  • That will convert into I-140s (78%) - 4651 * 0.78 = 3627
  • Total I-485 filed -  3627 * 2.25 (Dependent factor) = 8161
  • People who missed boat in 2007 from PD 15 April 2007  = 2865
  • Carry over PWMB from FY 2011 that will be "doc qual" = 350
  • Visible Demand from PD 15 April 2007 - July 2007 = 8000
  • Porting not considered so far. 
  • Adding total demand in BLUE = 8161+2865+350+8000 =  19,376

Projection for EB3 Category
Projections for EB3 ROW-M-P will be handled separately in different updated article. Increase in demand  for EB3-P will affect overall movement for aforementioned categories. As of now July 2006 PD looks like best case for this FY 2012. Demand for three categories only reduced by 1475 compared to last month when 2200 visas numbers out of 2933 is expected at minimum. More updated analysis is required. EB3-India and China are moving as expected.

 


Thursday, September 22, 2011

November 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Posted On Thursday, September 22, 2011 by Rav 123 comments

November Visa Bulletin will be the second bulletin for FY 2012.  Here is the prediction for November 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.




November 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions






Sunday, September 11, 2011

Visa Bulletin - October 2011

Posted On Sunday, September 11, 2011 by Rav 154 comments


October 2011 Visa Bulletin which is the first Visa Bulletin for the current FY 2012 was released on Friday. The major surprise for the October visa bulletin was the 3 month movement for the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories. This movement came as surprise for many people. DOS took this step to gauge demand for  FY 2012 as cut-off dates for  EB2-IC is  now reaching the latest PD of July 2007 that was ever current. EB3 categories advanced as expected, as of now there is no deviation from our estimation. Family Based category also saw some interesting movement.

Employment-Based (EB)
Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
  • EB-1 remains current across the board.
  • EB-2 saw some interesting movement.: EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current while EB-2 China and EB-2 India moved to July 15, 2007.
  • EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by two (2) weeks to December 08 , 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by three (3) weeks to August 08, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by one (1) week to July 15, 2002.
  • The “other worker” category remains unchanged at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by six (6) weeks for ROW, Mexico and Philippines to September 15, 2005.  It also moves forward by one (1) week for India to June 8, 2002



Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the October 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:
  • FB1 moves forward (finally!).  FB1 ROW, China and India all move forward by six (6) weeks to June 15, 2004.   FB1 Mexico moves forward by one (1) week to March 22, 1993 and FB1 Philippines moves forward by a little over two (2) months to January 8, 1997.
  • FB2A moves forward by five (5) weeks to January 8, 2009 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by three (3) weeks to October 15, 2008.
  • FB2B ROW, China and India move forward by two (2) weeks to July 15, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by three (3) weeks to November 22, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by five (5) weeks to May 1, 2001.


VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
 
FB Categories
Worldwide dates:
F1: three to six weeks
F2A:three to six weeks
F2B:one to two weeks
F3: one to two weeks
F4: up to one month

Please be advised that the above date ranges are only estimates for the next few months, and are subject to fluctuations in demand.

EB Categories

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:
Worldwide: Current
China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

Mexico: Current
Philippines: Current

Employment Third:
Worldwide: up to one month
China: one to three weeks
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: up to one month
Philippines: up to one month

Employment Fourth: Current
Employment Fifth: Current

Please be advised that the above date ranges are only estimates for the next few months, and are subject to fluctuations in demand. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future.


EB2-India & China Movement 

It is very apparent from the statement in Visa Bulletin that this unexpected movement for EB2-IC category is to allow intake of new demand in order to keep cases already pre-adjudicated and documentarily qualified for next spillover season in FY 2012. CP demand for this category is minimal (around 2-5%) and majority of approval usually comes  from  those approved at USCIS. Current movement of 3 months would make atleast 6164 already pending applicants current for EB2-IC category, and this at the same time will bring in lot of applications from those who missed their filing during July 2007 fiasco (PWMBs). Estimated PWMBs to apply after October 2011 could be anywhere from 3500-4000 (including dependents).

Visa Bulletin mentions "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year". We expect dates to progress or stand still atleast for Q1 FY 2012 before it could retrogress in Q2 FY 2012 if needed. Mr. Oppenheim has followed similar steps last year for Family Based category before he retrogressed that category in January 2011.
 
We understand that this whole movement is to gauge the demand and to keep cases ready for approval, but what's ambiguous to everyone is how USCIS/DOS is expecting to approve these many cases that are made current. In addition to those now ready to be approved, we have PWMBs who have filed in May-August 2011, that are expected to become documentarily qualified in Q1 FY 2012. PWMBs who will file on and after October 2011 are not expected to become documentarily qualified until Q2 FY 2012.

Million dollar question is how do we expect visa numbers to become available to approve these cases? EB2- India and China only have 2803 per country limit. In addition, there are restrictions on number of visas that can be used each quarter from the annual limit. Only way we see these cases to get approved is through quarterly spillover.  Below we have done quick calculations to estimate EB1 and EB2-ROW demand that could become documentarily qualified in Q4 FY 2011 or early Q1 FY 2012. If similar trend will continues, we expect similar demand to come in each month for Q1 FY 2012 even after few approvals in Q4 FY 2011. 




Click Image to View
From Q3 PERM approvals, we can also estimate what EB2-ROW demand will be. Around 3189 EB2-ROW PERMs were approved in Q3 FY 2011, that are expected to become documentarily qualified on I-140 approval during Q4 FY 2011 and Q1 FY 2012.


Click Image to view
Looking at above table, we can expect anything around 4425 as quarterly spillover which in addition of 1400 EB2-IC quota can allow atleast 5825 approvals. Based on this it is very unlikely that all those who became current in October 2011 visa bulletin can expect approvals in October. Approvals will come slowly but please do not be surprised if few of your SR request would come back with tag "waiting for visa numbers". It is difficult to guess how USCIS will handle approvals but it is very likely that those becoming documentarily qualified through June-July filings may see approvals before those who became current in October VB. This way when DOS will ever retrogress in Q2 FY2012, DOS will not have to retrogress dates by lot . This would help them keep their books look clean. Use of available visa numbers will be at USCIS/DOS discretion and policy.Time will tell. In past some of the October VB approvals also came from unused visa numbers from last fiscal year.

Finally, what would be enough demand for Mr Oppenheim to consider retrogression of EB2-IC? This totally depend upon DOS. Best guess would be anywhere from November 2007-March 2008 (18000-30000 new demand). We still expect PD November 2007 to receive GC for sure in FY 2012. We believe it will take long time for all new PWMBs and post July 2007 filings  to become documentarily qualified and get counted towards monthly demand data. As per current visa bulletin, it seems this movement will continue for some time, atleast until January-February 2012 before we can see retrogression. Again, with DOS all is at will



Demand Data - October 2011 Visa Bulletin

Posted On Sunday, September 11, 2011 by Rav 0 comments

Demand Data used for October 2011 Visa Bulletin cut-off date determination is captured here in.


 


Thursday, August 25, 2011

PERM Approvals & Processing Time : Q3 FY 2011

Posted On Thursday, August 25, 2011 by Rav 12 comments

Here is a break down of PERM data (certified and certified_expired only) that was processed each month for FY 2011 Q3. Data has been broken down among different PDs that were approved per month in Q3 FY 2011. As of now it looks like lot of audit cases until December 2010 are approved. Total 16,886 PERMs were approved in Q3 - FY 2011.































Click Image to Enlarge

In addition, please see distribution of PERM approvals segregated based on country of chargeability and category. Most of the PERMs filed in FY 2011- Q3 belonged to India and ROW. It is becoming apparent that with passing time, most of the individuals are filing their cases in EB2 category. 


PERM processing time as of 22 August 2011 is at May 2011 for new cases. Analysis of Q3 PERM approvals shows that last approved case in FY 2011 was with PD 3rd May 2011.  

 





Tuesday, August 23, 2011

October 2011 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Posted On Tuesday, August 23, 2011 by Rav 103 comments

October Visa Bulletin will be the first bulletin for FY 2012. As with every October visa bulletin for new fiscal year, retrogression can never be discounted. Here is the prediction for October 2011 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOS would use visa numbers for each category as per statutory allocations.



Monday, August 22, 2011

EB3 ROW, Mexico & Philippines - FY 2012 Movement Estimation

Posted On Monday, August 22, 2011 by Rav 59 comments

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until 15th November 2006, will be 34,674. Based on annual allocation for EB3-ROW-M-P, visa number available will be 29,128 +2803 + 2803 = 34,734. Please see table below for detailed calculation. EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to reach 15-November-2006 for FY 2012 based on currently available data. This projection will be updated as cut-off dates will progress in FY 2012.

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW will only use 24,733 visas; EB3-M will use 3,024 visas and EB3-P will end up using 6,917 visa numbers. I-485 demand (or AOS or visible demand) from the inventory that is expected to clear in FY 2012 is 21507, 2326 and 5321 respectively for ROW, Mexico and Philippines in EB3 category.


Last Updated - 22 August 2011
* - Please note that for FY 2011, there was change in demand from inventory to inventory, every quarter. From October 2010 to September 2011, at least 7194 demand for previous already current PDs were added all together. These numbers accounted for at least 50% of increase in demand from inventory to inventory. If this is again observed for FY 2012, cut-off date is expected to reach only until PD July 2006 for EB3-ROW-M-P. We are hoping since most of the cases from LO are now returned to National Service Centers this is less unlikely, but we will need to keep a close eye at difference in demand that  may  evolve from inventory to inventory,


Sunday, August 14, 2011

EB3-ROW FY 2011 - Estimation of Visa Number used out of 28,800

Posted On Sunday, August 14, 2011 by Rav 17 comments

In this post we have estimated use of EB3-ROW annual allocation of 28,800 visas for FY 2011. Later, this calculation will be used to estimate movement for FY 2012. Positive side of movement observed in FY 2011 is that since cut-of dates for EB3-ROW-M-P are same, we can expect EB3-ROW to use almost close to full allocation for movement in FY 2012. Please note this is one way of looking at the movement observed in FY 2011 and reality can involve more hidden demand than estimated, and less visas used for EB3-M-P. We will know more about this when country-wise visa used numbers will be out for FY 2011 in December 2011.





From annual allocation, total visas used for EB3-ROW in FY 2011
Total visa used upto 22 November 2005 = 13927 + 7092 = 21019
Adding Consular Processing cases (15 %) = 1.15 * 21019 = 24,172


On similar lines as above from different inventories,

From ROW annual allocation, total visas used EB3-Mexico in FY 2011
Total visa used upto 22 November 2005 = 5177
Adding Consular Processing cases (15 %) = 1.15 * 5177 = 5,953
Out of EB3-ROW allocation, EB3-M could have used 5953-2803 = 3,150


From ROW annual allocation, total visas used EB3-Philippines in FY 2011
Total visa used upto 22 November 2005 = 2813
Adding Consular Processing cases (30 %) = 1.30 * 2813 = 3,656
Out of EB3-ROW allocation, EB3-P could have used 3656-2803 = 854


 Estimated EB3-ROW Allocation used for FY 2011

So EB3- ROW annual allocation of 28,800 were used more or less in this way (some error here and there)
.
24,172 + 3,150 + 854 = 28,176



Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Visa Bulletin - September 2011

Posted On Wednesday, August 10, 2011 by Rav 50 comments


September 2011 Visa Bulletin which is the last Visa Bulletin for the current FY2011 fiscal year was released yesterday. The major disappointment for the September visa bulletin was the lack of any movement in the EB-2 China and EB-2 India categories, which have moved significantly over the past few months. Surge in EB1 and EB2-ROW demand for the last quarter was the main reason for no movement in this category. If porting numbers and PWMBs are not huge, we expect no or slow movement in this category starting October 2011 for FY 2012. Please see table below on to estimate how slow movement can be. EB2-China will progress much quicker than EB2-India.


 EB3 India saw major movement of 5 weeks due to reduction in the demand data by 725 compared to August visa bulletin demand data. Movement was based on 588 (for June) + 168 visa numbers (from 01 July 2002 - 08 July 2002). Movement due to reduction in demand data upto PD 1 January 2003, caused due to porting is not an appropriate way of progressing dates for EB3-India . In reality, reduction in demand could be across the board for PD 01 June 2002 - 31 December 2002. If this is true, then we fear that EB3-India may not see any movement for Q1 FY 2012. Though it is unclear now but stall or little retrogression for EB3-India in Q1 cannot be discounted. We will need to observe VB movement closely for this category in FY 2012.

EB3-ROW-M-P will continue to move slowly but steadily for next visa bulletin. We will work on new article for What to expect for EB3-ROW-M-P in FY 2012.

EB3-China will continue to move slowly for FY 2012 due to high CP demand.

Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the September 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:
  • EB-1 remains current across the board.
  • EB-2 remains unchanged across the board: EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current while EB-2 China and EB-2 India are unchanged at April 15, 2007.
  • EB-3 ROW, EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to November 22 , 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by only one (1) week to July 15, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by five (5) weeks to July 8, 2002.
  • The “other worker” category remains unchanged at  April 22, 2003 for China and at June 1, 2002 for India.  It moves forward by three (3) months to August 1, 2005 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.



Family-Based (FB)
Below is a summary of the September 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:
  • FB1 remains unchanged (again) for ROW, China and India at May 1, 2004.   It moves forward by one (1) week to March 15, 1993 for Mexico.  It also moves forward by 6.5 months to November 1, 2006 for for Philippines.
  • FB2A moves forward by over four (4) months to December 1, 2008 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by less than four (4) months to September 22, 2008.
  • FB2B ROW, China and India remains unchanged at July 1, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by one (1) month to November 1, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by over (3) months to March 22, 2001.

We continue to see the FB2A category move forward, after the significant retrogression over the past several months – this month by four weeks.   Unfortunately, due to strong demand, FB1 category remains unchanged, for a fourth month in a row, after it retrogressed by 8 months during the April 2011 Visa Bulletin.  This is due to heavy demand in the FB1 category which is expected to continue and further lack of movement (or backward movement) in FB1 is possible.
 


Monday, August 8, 2011

Demand Data used for September 2011 VIsa Bulletin

Posted On Monday, August 08, 2011 by Rav 44 comments

Demand Data that will be used to estimate cut-off dates for September 2011 Vssa Bulletin was released today. Please see cumulative difference in Demand Data for August  and September 2011 visa bulletin below. Please note that EB3-P demand data for September visa bulletin data is no different than June 2011 Demand Data.

Based on the difference here we can expect following movement for the last visa  bulletin for the current fiscal year.

  • EB3 category for ROW/M/P should reach anywhere from 22 Nov 2005 - 08 Dec 2005. Earlier statement made about EB3-P trailing EB3-ROW may not come true for next few months as DOS has not updated numbers for EB3-P since June 2011 Demand data. This suggests that for some more time EB3-P will move with EB3-ROW-M.
  • EB2 category demand is exactly that would be required to clear backlog until July 2007 fiasco. 8000 more visa numbers will take EB2-IC cut-off date to 15 August 2007. We will still like to stick to our estimate of 15 June 2007 (+/- 1 week). Spillover used so far without annual limit for EB2-IC this year is 25,325.
  • For EB2- IC demand data show CP cases post 2007. Numbers are only few hundred to account for. Do not know if it is still worthwhile to make major movement and overwhelm USCIS for PD beyond July 2007 unless strategy is to get some inventory for next year. This will be done most probably next fiscal year depending upon where dates will end up for this visa bulletin.
  • EB3 -I demand reduced by 6400 -733 (visas used for movement for the Aug) ~ 5675. EB3-I cut-off date can be anywhere from 8 June 2002 - 15 June 2002.
  • EB3-China can reach anywhere from 22 July 2004 – 01 Aug 2004

Click Image to Enlarge

Click Image to Enlarge


Friday, July 29, 2011

EB1 Statistics for I-140 Approval and Denial for FY 2010 and FY 2011

Posted On Friday, July 29, 2011 by Rav 48 comments

Here are the recent EB1 statistics released by AILA until July 19th, 2011  for receipts, approval, denials and RFE for FY 2011 and FY 2010.

EB1- Statistics for FY 2010 and FY 2011


EB1 - DHS Statistics based on Primary and Derivative applicants for FY 2010
From FY 2011 statistics it looks there are almost 8,712 approvals so far until July 2011. If we will consider that the similar family size or Primary to Dependent ratio as FY 2010 is assumed, i.e. 2.39, full year FY 2011 consumption for EB1 for FY 2011 becomes,

FY 2011 Consumption EB-1 = ( 8712 * 2.39 * 12 months )/ 9.5 months (until July 2011) 
                                             = 26,301

So this leaves, 40,000 -26,301 = 13,699 as unused visa numbers for spillover. We know out of these 12K is already used. So in all we can expect only 2000-3000 for September visa bulletin for FY 2011. Expectation from EB1 is very little for the next bulletin.

 


Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Posted On Wednesday, July 27, 2011 by Rav 1 comments

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS,  is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. Since for some oversubscribed countries cut-off dates tend to retrogress, such derivatives can only be added to their I-485 case after their priority dates become current again. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application would reach USCIS. Most of these derivatives during this time are on non-immigrant status like (H4, F4, J4 etc) and can become out of status as soon as primary applicants I-485 is approved.

Under such cases individual can still file I-485 application for adjustment of status under Section 245(k) of INA. In order to use Section 245(k) for a case where Primary applicant is approved before derivative applicants file reaches USCIS, these two following criteria should be met :
  •  Primary applicant should be married to spouse or be father/mother of a derivative child before I-485 approval.
  • Derivative applicants should have last entered in US lawfully on a non-immigrant status and has since their last lawful admission to the United States have not, for an aggregate period of more than 180 days violated their status. (see below for details)
 
Understanding Section 245(k) and how it can be used?

Family and employment-based immigrants have 3 ways to apply for adjustment of status:
  • 245(a) – The general adjustment of status provision which requires continual maintenance of status since arrival. 
  • 245(i) – This provision allows an adjustment of status application to be filed by a “grandfathered” alien.  
  • 245(k) – Preserves eligibility under 245(a) for employment- based immigrants with certain status violations that might otherwise bar adjustment. 
In general, Section 245(a) allows an admissible alien who was inspected and admitted or paroled into the United States to apply for permanent resident status from within the United States if the alien is the beneficiary of an approved immigrant visa petition and has an immigrant visa number immediately available.

Section 245(c) establishes eight (8) bars to adjustment under Section 245(a). For certain employment-based adjustment applicants, section 245(k) grants relief from three (3) of those bars: sections 245(c)(2), (c)(7) and (c)(8). Section 245(k), however, does not provide an exemption from any other basis of ineligibility, such as entry without inspection or any ground of inadmissibility.

 Section 245 (k)
 
(d) Section 245(k) of the Act: Exemptions to the 245(c)(2), (c)(7) and (c)(8) Bars to Adjustment for Certain Employment-Based Adjustment of Status Applicants.

(1) General Provisions. Section 245(k) can render the normal bars to adjustment of status found in section 245(c)(2), (c)(7), and (c)(8) inapplicable to certain employment-based adjustment of status applicants who, since their last lawful admission to the United States have not, for an aggregate period of more than 180 days: 

(A) failed to maintain, continuously, a lawful status; ( violation as per 245(c)(7) )
(B) engaged in unauthorized employment; ( violation as per 245(c)(2) ) or
(C) otherwise violated the terms and conditions of his or her admission (violation as per 245(c)(8) )
  
(2) Applicability. The following classes of employment-based adjustment of status applicants under section 245(a) are eligible for relief under 245(k):

(A)  An alien who is present in the United States pursuant to a lawful admission and whose adjustment of status application is based on an approved immigrant petition for them as the beneficiary in one of the following classifications:
  • EB-1: aliens of extraordinary ability, outstanding professors and researchers, and certain multinational managers and executives;
  • EB-2: aliens who are members of the professions holding advanced degrees or aliens of exceptional ability;
  • EB-3: skilled workers, professionals, and other workers; or 
  • EB-4: religious workers described in section 101(a)(27)(C) of the Act only.
 Other employment-based immigrant classifications and other immigrant classifications are not a basis for consideration under section 245(k).

(B)  An eligible derivative of an alien described in 2 (A) may benefit from section 245(k) in his or her own right if he or she has failed to maintain continuously a lawful status, worked without authorization, or otherwise violated the terms and conditions of his or her admission for an aggregate of 180 days or less pursuant to a lawful admission.

(3) Application Process. An alien must properly file an adjustment of status application under section 245(a) in accordance with 8 CFR 245.2 and 103.2. An applicant invoking 245(k) is not required to submit additional application forms or payment of a penalty surcharge. Thus, it is the responsibility of USCIS to determine section 245(k) applicability based on the evidence submitted in support of the adjustment of status application. To the extent evidence is deficient or absent, USCIS may issue a request(s) for evidence or notice of intent to deny asking for specific evidence in support of eligibility for relief under section 245(k).

 (4) Counting against the 180 days timeframe in (d)(1).

(A) General Guidelines. If the adjudicator determines that an employment-based adjustment of status applicant described in (d)(2) above is subject to any of the bars to adjustment of status set forth in Sections 245(c)(2), (c)(7), or (c)(8), then the adjudicator must determine whether the aggregate period in which the alien failed to continuously maintain lawful status, worked without authorization, or otherwise violated the terms and conditions of the alien’s admission since the date of alien’s last lawful admission to the United States is 180 days or less.

The guidance below describes the periods of time to be examined for purposes of calculating time against the 180-day period.
  • The adjudicator must only examine the period from the date of the alien’s last lawful admission to the United States and must not count violations that occurred before the alien’s last lawful admission.
  • An alien, however, who entered the United States pursuant to an advance parole document is not “lawfully admitted,” because the parole is not a final act with respect to admission. Thus, reentry based on a parole or advance parole does not start the clock over for the purpose of section 245(k).
  • An alien may be subject to more than one bar or violation described in section 245(k)(2) at the same time. For example, an alien in B-2 status who worked without authorization will also have violated a lawful status and failed to maintain continuously a lawful status. USCIS reads the phrase “aggregate period exceeding 180 days” in section 245(k)(2) to refer to the total of all three types of violations rather than permit up to 180 days of each type of violation. Accordingly, the aggregate 180 day period must be calculated by adding together any and all days in which there is one or more of the violations, and each day in which one or more of these violations existed must be counted as one day. If USCIS reads section 245(k) to permit up to 180 days of each type of violation an alien could potentially accrue more than 180 total days of violations and remain eligible for adjustment of status. USCIS holds that the statute was not intended to permit such egregious violations.
(B) Engaged in Unauthorized Employment

(1) General. “Unauthorized employment” means any service or labor performed by an alien for an employer within the United States that is not authorized under 8 CFR 274a.12(a), (b), or (c) or exceeds the authorized period of employment. The filing of an adjustment of status application does not, in itself, authorize employment or excuse unauthorized employment, and accordingly the filing of an adjustment of status application will not stop the counting period of unauthorized employment. Therefore, all periods of unauthorized employment since the date of the alien’s last lawful admission, including any periods after the filing of an application for adjustment of status, must be counted until the date of the adjudication of the pending adjustment of status application. 
  • With respect to engaging in unlawful employment, the count commences on the first date of the unauthorized employment and continues until the date the unauthorized employment ended, the date an employment authorization document (EAD) is approved, or the date the pending adjustment of status application is adjudicated. 
  • It is completely within the control of the alien as to whether he or she engages in employment without authorization and, as stated above, the filing of an application for adjustment of status does not automatically authorize employment in the United States. Therefore, it is possible for an alien to accrue days of unauthorized employment against the 180 day period after the filing of the application for adjustment of status. To hold otherwise would not only reward an alien for engaging in unauthorized employment but it would also effectively eliminate the incentive and the need for an alien to maintain a valid employment authorization document in connection with the pending application for adjustment of status. Unlike an alien who has failed to maintain lawful nonimmigrant status, an alien who has worked without authorization may unilaterally avoid the accrual of additional days counted against such violation by simply terminating the unauthorized employment. 
  • An alien’s engagement in unauthorized employment is dependent upon the existence of the alien’s employment or employer-employee relationship rather than simply the number of days the alien actually works or claims to have worked. Each day an alien engaged in unauthorized employment must be counted against the 180-day period regardless of whether or not the alien unlawfully worked a few hours on a given day, a part-time schedule, or a full-time schedule with leave benefits and weekend and holidays off. Absent evidence of interruptions in unauthorized employment, the adjudicator must consider each day since the date the unauthorized employment began as a day of unauthorized work regardless of the work schedule agreed to or maintained by the alien for the particular employer. For example, if an alien worked without authorization for four hours a day Monday through Friday throughout the month of April, all 30 days for that month must be counted as unauthorized employment. 
  • For periods in which it appears that the alien has engaged in unauthorized employment, the alien bears the burden of establishing that any such periods were authorized or that he or she did not in fact engage in unauthorized employment. In addition, an alien who works without authorization after filing for adjustment of status will not stop the clock by departing the United States and re-entering pursuant to a valid advance parole document.

(2) Special Considerations. For purposes of section 245(c)(8) of the Act, an alien is not considered to be engaged in unauthorized employment while his or her properly filed adjustment of status application is pending final adjudication, if: 
  • The alien has obtained permission from USCIS to engage in employment based on his or her pending adjustment of status application and such authorization remains valid; or 
  • The alien had been granted employment authorization prior to the filing of the adjustment of status application and such authorization does not expire while the adjustment of status application is pending.
 (C) Failed to Maintain a Lawful Status and/or Violated the Terms of a Non immigrant Visa

(1) General. Expiration, revocation, or violation of status puts a nonimmigrant out of status, and the alien remains out of status until some adjudication restores status or the alien departs the United States. 

In most cases, the 180-day counting period commences on the date the alien’s status expires, is revoked, or is violated following the alien’s most recent admission. In addition, with the exception of a dual intent nonimmigrant, a nonimmigrant is only required to maintain his or her nonimmigrant status until the time he or she properly files an adjustment of status application with USCIS, because most nonimmigrants who apply for adjustment of status are presumed to be intending immigrants and are no longer eligible to maintain a nonimmigrant status. 

Therefore, for purposes of the 180-day counting period, calculation of the number of days for failing to maintain status or violating a nonimmigrant visa will stop as of the date USCIS receives a properly filed adjustment of status application. 

Not withstanding, a properly filed adjustment of status application, in and of itself, does not accord lawful status or cure any violation of a nonimmigrant visa. For example, if an alien applied for adjustment of status three days prior to the expiration of his or her nonimmigrant status and the adjustment of status application was eventually denied, the alien will not be considered to be in lawful status after the expiration of the nonimmigrant status. Consequently, if the same alien files a second application for adjustment of status, the period after which the nonimmigrant status expired and during which the first adjustment of status application was pending counts against the 180-day period when considering eligibility for relief under 245(k) in the adjudication of the second adjustment of status application.


(2) Special Considerations. The adjudicator must consider the following when calculating the number of days an alien has failed to maintain a lawful status or violated the terms of a nonimmigrant visa. 
  • The regulations define “lawful immigration status” at 8 CFR 245.1(d)(1). In examining any period where an application for extension of stay (EOS) or change of status (COS) was ultimately approved, the period during which the EOS or COS had been pending would be considered, in retrospect, a period in which the alien was in a lawful non-immigrant status regardless of whether the EOS or COS application was timely or untimely filed. The period would not be disqualifying for section 245(c) purposes, and the period would not count against any 180-day period under section 245(k).
  • The period during which an alien has a pending EOS, COS, or adjustment of status application does not constitute, in and of itself, a period in which the alien is in a lawful “status.” 
  • A period of unlawful status found to result only from a “technical violation” or through no fault of the applicant, as described in 8 CFR 245.1(d)(2), does not invoke the 245(c)(2) bar. Thus, such period does not count against the 180-day period. 
  • An alien who complies with all the terms and conditions of his or her non-immigrant status does not violate the terms of such status merely by properly filing an adjustment of status application, provided the filing occurred before the alien’s non-immigrant status expired. 
  • An F (student) or J (exchange visitor) non-immigrant is considered in “status” for such authorized period of time before and after completion of his or her educational objective or program in accordance with 8 CFR 214.2(f) and 8 CFR 214.2(j), respectively, provided that the F or J non-immigrant has not violated the terms and conditions of his or her status. 
  • A reinstatement of F status under 8 CFR 214.2(f) or J status under 22 CFR 62.45 cures time out of or in violation of status only for the particular period of time covered by the reinstatement, so that such period does not count against the 180-day period.

(5) Effect of 245(k) Exemption. A determination of eligibility under section 245(k) renders inapplicable the normal bars to adjustment found in section 245(c)(2), (c)(7), and (c)(8). Section 245(k), however, does not provide an exemption from any other basis of ineligibility, such as entry without inspection or any ground of inadmissibility.






Wednesday, July 13, 2011

August 2011 Visa Bulletin and Estimation for September 2011

Posted On Wednesday, July 13, 2011 by Rav 328 comments

August 2011 Visa Bulletin was released  yesterday For Employment-Based category, EB-3 overall saw some movement in cut-off dates for each country. EB2 is current for all other countries except India and China. EB-2 India-China advanced to 15th April 2007. EB1, EB4 and EB5 are still current. Some movement for Family-Based categories overall.

Family-Based
  • Family 1st – FB1 remains unchanged across all regions at May 1, 2004 for ROW, China and India, at March 8, 1993 for Mexico and at April 15, 1996 for Philippines.
  • Family 2A –FB2A moves forward by four (4) months to July 22, 2008 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by four and a half (4.5) months to June 1, 2008.
  • Family 2B – FB2B ROW, China and India remains unchanged at July 1, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by only one (1) week to October 1, 1992.  FB2B Philippines moves forward by two (2) months to December 1, 2000..
  • Family 3rd – most countries moved to August 2001; Philippines  to November 1992; Mexico retrogressed to April 1992.
  • Family 4th – most countries moved to April 2000; Philippines stalled at 15 May 1988; Mexico stalled at March 1996.

Employment-Based
  • EB-1 remains current across the board.
  • EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current while EB-2 China and EB-2 India both move forward by almost five (5) weeks to April 15, 2007.
  • EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Philippines move forward by three (3) weeks to November 1 , 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by only one (1) week to July 8, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by one (1) month to June 1, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico moves forward by over five (5) months to November 1, 2005.
  • The “other worker” category remains unchanged (again) at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by over five (5) months to May 1, 2005 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.  It moves forward by one  (1) month to June 1, 2002 for India .
  • Employment 4th – still current in all categories
  • Employment 5th – still current in all categories



VISA AVAILABILITY Notes from August Visa Bulletin

Family-sponsored: Heavy applicant demand for numbers in the Family First preference could require retrogression of some of the September Family First preference cut-off dates. This action may be necessary to keep visa issuances within the respective annual preference numerical limits. If this were to occur they could be expected to return to the previous cut-off date for October, the first month of the new fiscal year.

Employment-based: No Notes !!!!


Determination of annual limit for this fiscal year
 
The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Sections 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On June 9th, USCIS provided the required data to VO. (Also hints why no demand data was released, since complete data from CIS was received on June 9th and July bulletin was released on June 8th.)

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2011 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2011 are as follows:
Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 140,000
Under INA Section 202(a), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2011 the per-country limit is 25,620. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,320.


Our Analysis on EB Category after August Visa Bulletin Release

EB3-ROW-M-P - EB3 ROW moved by three weeks to November 01, 2005. As seen with last few months, EB3-ROW only used 1500 visas from the visible demand. EB3-Mexico has utilized 5085 visa numbers for this year and has reached same level as EB3-ROW-P. Going forward EB3-ROW-M-P will move together. Since EB-3 category will not receive any spillover, we expect EB3-M-P to move by 4 weeks to 01 December 2005 for this fiscal year. This movement is based on at least 3188  (ROW-2584 +  M-304 + P-300 ) available visa numbers for EB3-ROW-M-P together. Please note, since each of these countries shares sames cut-off date, going forward for next month at least, they will share same cut-off date.

EB3-India - EB3 India moved one month due to decrease in demand due to porting case. Decrease in demand was 500. This along with monthly limit of 233, allowed total movement of 733 (Inventory upto May - Inventory upto April = 2710-2050). Even if there is no further reduction in demand due to porting, we still expect EB3-India to reach 15th June 2002 for this fiscal year just using 233 number of visas.


EB3-China - EB3-China may only move by a week or two for the coming bulletin. It is difficult to gauge movement for EB3-China due to high volume of invisible CP demand.

EB2-India  &  China - We believe EB2 India and China advanced to 15 April 2007 by utilizing at least 2580 additional unused visa numbers from EB1, EB2-ROW and EB5.

Number of applicants from 08March07 to 15April07 

[26469 + (28498-26469)/2] - [24383 + (26469 – 24383)/4 ]

= 27484 – 24904

= 2580



Till date visas used for this movement


= 22,875 (used upto 08Mar07)  + 5,600 (annual quota) + 2,580 (used in this bulletin)


= 31,055


At this point of time we would like to revisit our potential spillover source for the current fiscal year. We know that EB1 was suppose to give us 12,000 unused visa. It was never clear to us whether it was  a half-yearly or full-yearly projected numbers. After June 2011 released inventory, EB2-ROW was projected to have demand around 26,600 - 28,600 annual, yielding around 6000-8000 unused visa numbers. As per recent released EB5 visa usage number, it was quoted that EB5 demand can be as high as 4,260, thus yielding only 9,400 4230 = 5170 unused visa numbers. So putting these together with 5,600 annual quota for EB2-IC, available visas for EB2-IC becomes

EB1 + EB2-ROW + EB5 + EB2-IC annual quota

= 12000 + 8000 + 5170 +5600

= 30,770


Now from this, all we can conclude is  for EB1, 12K was a projected demand for half year, but  real demand did not convert into 24K. On average, we were hoping to get more 6K from EB1.  But  looking at the current movement, numbers expected now can be anywhere from 3K-6K. Of these expected EB1 numbers, we have already used 500 (31,055 - 30,770).

EB5 usage has been  a very big disappointment (or tough one to digest) for this year ; instead of yielding 7000 unused visa, it would only yield(ed) 5170 visas.

Taking EB1 and EB5 demand into account, worst case movement for September bulletin will be based on use of 2,500 unused visa numbers while best case could be around the use of 5,500 unused visa numbers.

Once date will reach July 2007, new cases, PWMBs and some porting will slow down the movement for Q1 and early Q2. Like this year, we can expect significant movement of priority dates in late Q2 or early Q3 of FY 2012. Movement upto first quarter of 2008 is possible with some retrogression in late Q3. We should remember NVC fee bill is valid upto one year.

Update from www.mitbbs.com

On 18th July there was some update on this site that where they mentioned that someone talked to Mr. Oppenheim through FOIA  or other means (please excuse my translation) and he mentioned that up until now only 121000 visas were used for EB category and at least 19k is still to be used in coming months.

The news on 19K visas available was confirmed in two ways as below

Method A

As per recent data released by USCIS until March 2011 for I-485- Employment Based.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf

I-485 Employment Adjustment upto March 2011 approvals are 45,981. At this rate , aprovals for I-485 for full year becomes, 91,962. Adding unused visa numbers used so far, total EB visas used for this year becomes 91962+30000 (SO used so far) = 121,962. So atleast 19K looks is still left from whole fiscal year. This suggest published information on www.mitbbs.com is very authentic and we might have anywhere from 12k-19k total EB visas avaiable for EB category for September.No CP demand included.


Method B

As per data that was released by USCIS day before yesterday -http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Application-for-Benefits/applications-for-benefits-2011-may.pdf , it suggests total I-485 application to adjust status received until May 2011 are 47,721.
Based on previously released USCIS Approval/Receipt information until March 2011;
I-485 Approved were – 45,981
I-485 Received were – 36,492
Approval/Receipt ratio – 1.26
Assuming same ratio for this newly released data until May 2011 – Approvals can be near – 1.26 x 47,721 = 60,128.This is for 8 months. 
For full year FY2011 – it becomes 12 x 60,128/8 = 90,192.

Again adding spillover used so far, total consumption becomes = 90,192 + 30,000 = 120,192

So visas available for September bulletin, again becomes 140,000 – 120,192 ~ 19K.

Other way to validate 19K news from www.mitbbs.com

Note - It does not include CP demand.

Out of these 19K how much can we expect for EB2-IC?

In above calculations we have not included any CP demand in this. CP demand can be anywhere from 5%-15%. Taking 5%, CP demand will make these 121,000 used EB visa number for FY 2011 until now to 127,000 visas used for EB category after including AOS + CP demand.

Then we should also remember that as per released USCIS data, I-140 stats until March 2011 suggests that for 42,096 receipts, there were only 30,820 approvals. So even if we assume that this difference was constantly maintained for entire year, there are still chances some of these 12000 would contain EB2-ROWs. Some of these remaining visa numbers from 19K will be used for such cases when they will be approved and become documentarily qualified. Even if 10% of these are EB2-ROW, we can have 1200 demand from EB2-ROW. Then addition to this we also have usual monthly demand for EB2-ROW, which can be anywhere from 500 -1500.

We do not know anything about EB1 demand. At this point when USCIS processing time has reduced to 4 months, we can see some of these EB1s can get attention. These EB1 approvals will take some visa numbers. I think in month of August, we can see many EB1 approvals as movement for EB2-IC is only 5 weeks for August bulletin. In addition with reduced backlog, some good numbers of EB1 approvals are expected in August.

In general EB3 demand for a month can be anywhere from 2400 + 4(233) = 3332.

So now if we will consider all these aspects, what EB2-IC can expect is

= 19000 - (CP + EB2-ROW(due to I-140) + regular EB2-ROW + EB1 + EB3) demand

= 19000 - (6000 + 1200 + 1000 + 1000 + 3332) = 6468


Thus numbers available for EB2-IC can be anywhere from 3500 - 8000. So movement can be anywhere from 1 June 2007 - 15 August 2007. It all depends upon demand for last month and we have no basis to come up with exact numbers.

I have not considered EB4 and EB5, which can take few 20-50 numbers here and there.Other than EB4-EB5, there are some PWMBs and dependents who has filed until July visa bulletin, who can become documentarily qualified by September 30.



EB2-IC September 2011 Priority Date Movement

P.S. - Whenever I have been conservative, we have seen great movement for EB2-IC.. I hope it works out like that this time as well.